Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Beijing ‘carefully considering’ unveiling the plane at the Zhuhai Airshow in November at a time of heightened regional tension
H-20 will give China the nuclear triad of submarines, ballistic missiles and bombers
An artist’s impression of what the H-20 may look like. Photo: Weibo
China’s new generation strategic bomber is likely to be ready for delivery this year, but Beijing is said to be weighing the impact of its unveiling at a complex time in regional relations due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Military sources said the Xian H-20 supersonic stealth bomber – expected to double the country’s strike range – could make its first public appearance at this year’s Zhuhai Airshow in November, if the pandemic was sufficiently under control.
“The Zhuhai Airshow is expected to become a platform to promote China’s image and its success in pandemic control – telling the outside world that the contagion did not have any big impacts on Chinese defence industry enterprises,” a source said.
But the appearance of the bomber at this year’s air show could heighten tensions by directly threatening countries within its strike range, especially Australia, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
Thrilling aerobatics fill the skies to open air show in central China
“The Beijing leadership is still carefully considering whether its commission will affect regional balance, especially as regional tensions have been escalating over the Covid-19 pandemic,” another source said.
“Like intercontinental ballistic missiles, all strategic bombers can be used for delivering nuclear weapons … if China claimed it had pursued a national defence policy which is purely defensive in nature, why would it need such an offensive weapon?”
Tensions in the region have worsened in the past month with a war of words between Beijing and Washington over the pandemic, and both sides increasing naval patrols.
The US defence department has estimated a cruising distance of more than 8,500km (5,300 miles) for the H-20, the last in China’s 20 series of new generation warplanes, which includes the J-20 stealth fighter jet, the Y-20 giant transporter and the Z-20 medium-lift utility helicopter.
The arrival of the H-20 would mark the completion of China’s “nuclear triad” of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and air-launched weapons.
An H-6K bomber, or China’s B-52, flies over the South China Sea. Photo: AP
Chinese state television has said the H-20 could alter the strategic calculus between the US and China by doubling the strike range of its current H-6K, dubbed the country’s B-52.
The H-20 has reportedly been designed to strike targets beyond the second island ring – which includes US bases in Japan, Guam, the Philippines and other countries – from bases in mainland China. The third island chain extends to Hawaii and coastal Australia.
It will be equipped with nuclear and conventional missiles with a maximum take-off weight of at least 200 tonnes and a payload of up to 45 tonnes. The bomber is expected to fly at subsonic speeds and could potentially unleash four powerful hypersonic stealth cruise missiles.
However, like China’s first active stealth fighter jet, the J-20, engine development of the H-20 bomber has fallen behind schedule, according to sources.
For the J-20, engineers were developing high-thrust turbofan WS-15 engines, but the jet is understood to be using either Chinese WS-10B or Russian-built AL-31FM2/3 engines, which compromise its manoeuvrability and stealth capabilities at subsonic speeds.
Military enthusiasts have speculated the H-20 might use the NK-321 Russian engine but two independent military sources said it would be equipped with an upgraded WS-10 engine.
“The WS-10 is still a transitional engine for the H-20 because it is not powerful enough. The eligible replacement may take two to three years for development,” one of the sources said.
China must meet air force demand for J-20 stealth jets, say analysts
17 Feb 2020
The second said the speed of the H-20 would be slower than its original design, with some of its original combat capability being reduced.
“That’s why the American air force doesn’t care about the H-20, because it is not strong and powerful enough to cause any challenge to their B-2 and B-21 bombers.”
If the US decided to deploy more F-35 supersonic fighter jets – it has already sold about 200 to Japan and South Korea – it could push China to bring forward the unveiling of the new bomber, the second source said.
“For example, if some US decision makers decided to deploy up to 500 F-35s to Japan, South Korea, and even Singapore, India and Taiwan – making almost all of China’s neighbours in the Indo-Pacific region use F-35s to contain China – that would pushBeijing to launch the H-20 as soon as possible.”
The H-20 is believed to have been in development since the early 2000s. The project to develop a strategic bomber was first announced by the People’s Liberation Army in 2016.
Malfunction happened during third stage of launch after earlier stages were completed successfully, state media says
Failed mission is second in less than a month after Long March-7A encountered problems after lift-off on March 16
A Long March-3B carrier rocket blasts off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre in Sichuan province in November. A similar launch on Thursday ended in failure. Photo: Xinhua
China’s space programme suffered another setback on Thursday night with its second rocket launch failure in less than a month.
Officials are investigating what caused a malfunction during the third stage of the Long March-3B launch after lift-off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre in southwest Sichuan province at 7.46pm with an Indonesian Palapa-N1 satellite, Xinhua reported.
“The first and second stages of the rocket performed well, but the third stage malfunctioned,” the report said.
“Debris from the third stage of the rocket and the satellite fell [to the ground]. The launch mission failed.”
Debris from the failed mission rained down over Guam on Thursday night. Photo: Twitter
China’s state media did not say where the rocket landed, but the office of Guam Homeland Security and Civil Defence said “a fiery object over the Marianas sky” observed on Thursday evening was likely connected to the failed launch.
Video footage of the burning debris falling from the sky was widely circulated on social media.
The setback follows another failed launch on March 16, when China’s new Long March-7A, a three-stage, medium-lift, liquid-fuel rocket, encountered an “abnormality” minutes after lifting off from its launch site in the southern island province of Hainan.
China’s BeiDou system one satellite closer to full operation
11 Mar 2020
The satellite lost on Thursday – the Nusantara 2 – was built in China for Indonesian telecommunication companies Pasifik Satelit Nusantara and Indosat Ooredoo. It was intended to replace an older satellite to provide internet and broadcasting services in Indonesia and across the Asia-Pacific region to Australia, The Jakarta Post reported earlier this month.
It is not known if the failed launch will have an impact on other Long March-3B satellite launches planned for later in the year.
Introduced in 1996, the Long March-3B – also known as the CZ-3B or LM-3B – has been the main orbital carrier rocket of China’s space programme. It was used to carry many of the satellites that make up China’s BeiDou navigation system, with the latest addition being in March.
For that launch, engineers used parachutes to control where the rocket’s boosters would land after being discarded after lift-off so as to minimise the impact on people living below, state media reported.
The latest version of the Long March-3B entered service in 2007 and is dedicated to launching heavy communications satellites of up to 5.5 tonnes into geostationary transfer orbits.
36-hour exercise simulates countering enemy planes during wartime, report says
People’s Liberation Army placing increasing emphasis on airborne early-warning and control aircraft, observers say
The Eastern Theatre Command’s latest exercise follows joint air and naval drills near Taiwan in February. Photo: Handout
The Chinese military command responsible for patrols around Taiwan stepped up its drills by staging a long-endurance early-warning exercise in March, the official PLA Daily reported on Wednesday.
A warplane conducted tactical acrobatics, which were not specified, immediately after taking off, the report said. The move had not been common during previous drills, and was intended to simulate quickly countering enemy planes during wartime, the report quoted the plane’s captain Liu Yin as saying.
The plane performed reconnaissance, early-warning and surveillance work, tested airborne strikes, and an unspecified number of fighter jets in two groups staged a confrontation in a combat scenario.
The drill lasted for about 36 hours, the report said.
Taiwan shows off its military power after presidential election
Zi Kun, an officer from the division’s training unit, said the drill was a test for both pilots and equipment because it involved planning and coordination to meet actual combat requirements.
The exercise came after the Eastern Theatre Command in early February launched joint drills featuring naval and air forces near Taiwan and a combat-readiness drill in which its warplanes encircled the self-ruled island.
It also came after the United States sent EP-3E Aries electronic warfare and reconnaissance aircraft to fly near Kaohsiung, in southern Taiwan, and Hong Kong in late March.
Beijing may step up drills in South China Sea amid US military tensions
29 Mar 2020
Beijing views the self-governed Taiwan as a renegade province that must be united with mainland China by force if necessary.
Experts said the drill was designed to enhance China’s intelligence-gathering capabilities to better monitor activities at sea and in the air.
Taiwan’s re-elected president Tsai Ing-wen meets US and Japanese envoys to call for closer ties
“The People’s Liberation Army’s Air Force used to rely only on ground-based early-warning radar. Only in the past two decades, it started to acquire airborne early-warning and control aircraft, which could allow the air force to extend their radar coverage beyond the limits of ground-based radars,” said Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“The problem with ground-based radars is they are often limited by line of sight and Earth curvature, whereas the airborne early-warning assets can help to address these radar gaps and also have a better ability to pick up low-flying targets and those obscured by terrain,” Koh said.
Taiwan military stages exercise to fight off mock invasion
25 Mar 2020
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said that China did not have enough early-warning planes to support its expanding military ambitions and needed to maximise its capabilities through various exercises to act as a credible deterrent.
The command’s ongoing drills in recent months would be intended to send signals to the outside world on two fronts, according to Koh.
“The Eastern Theatre Command’s primary area of responsibility would cover Taiwan. And by extension, it also means targeting US forces concentrated not just in the nearby bases in Japan but also further afield beyond the First Island Chain, especially Guam,” he said.
, the People’s Liberation Army said on Friday, amid a growing number of patrols and exercises by US warships in the region.
The drill, which involved two aircraft, was conducted earlier this month, not long before the US naval and marine units took part in expeditionary strike force training in the disputed waters, the PLA Navy said in a report.
While acknowledging the difficulties involved in such an operation, the report said the aircraft successfully identified several suspicious objects.
“Anti-submarine exercises are like trying to find a needle in a haystack. It’s difficult, the underwater hydrological conditions are complex,” Yu Yang, the captain of one of the aircraft, was quoted as saying.
But by having two planes working together, it “increase[d] the probability of finding a submarine”, he said.
The anti-submarine exercise involved two aircraft from the PLA Navy. Photo: Handout
Wang Shelin, one of the commanders of the exercise, said that anti-submarine operations were not only dangerous but a real test of the pilots’ skills.
Successfully completing the mission demanded precise “control of the speed and altitude of the aircraft”, he said.
The publication of the PLA report came after the United States staged a four-day exercise in the South China Sea last week involving the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, the America Expeditionary Strike Group and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.
At the end of last month, the US Navy accused the PLA of “unsafe and unprofessional” behaviour after a Chinese destroyer pointed a laser at an American maritime patrol aircraft flying over international waters west of Guam.
Collin Koh, a research fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the Chinese military was keen to promote its anti-submarine capabilities.
“This means we can expect to see more such exercises in the future, with no let up because of the coronavirus,” he said.
“You can also see this as a response not only to the [recent] carrier strike group operations, but the intensified US military presence in the South China Sea.
“And it would not be surprising if a nuclear attack submarine was in the vicinity of the carrier strike group,” he said.
Chinese and US defence chiefs discuss coronavirus crisis in phone call
4 Mar 2020
Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based commentator on military affairs, said that with the possibility of a military conflict growing in the South China Sea, it was important for the PLA Navy to increase its anti-submarine training.
“The rivalry between the great powers is getting more and more intense, and the PLA must strengthen its preparations,” he said.
Echoing commander Wang’s comments, Song said that the high volume of maritime traffic and sheer size and depth of the South China Sea made searching for submarines difficult.
“So the PLA is trying to enhance its capabilities by constantly installing and testing new anti-submarine equipment,” he said.
US Pacific Fleet calls the action last week ‘unsafe and unprofessional’ and a breach of code of conduct
Analyst describes it as a ‘serious provocation’ that could have posed a navigational hazard
The US said a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft was targeted as it flew over international waters in the western Pacific last week. Photo: AP
A Chinese destroyer pointed a laser at an American maritime patrol aircraft over the western Pacific Ocean last week, the US Navy said, calling the incident “unsafe and unprofessional”.
The US Pacific Fleet said in a statement on Friday that the destroyer targeted the P-8A Poseidon aircraft as it flew over international waters about 610km (380 miles) west of Guam on February 17.
“The laser, which was not visible to the naked eye, was captured by a sensor on board the P-8A,” the statement said. “Weapons-grade lasers could potentially cause serious harm to aircrew and mariners, as well as ship and aircraft systems.”
It said the action by the Chinese warship had breached the multilateral Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, which “specifically addresses the use of lasers that could cause harm to personnel or damage to equipment”.
China’s arms industry back in business despite disruption by coronavirus
23 Feb 2020
The action was also “inconsistent” with a memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Chinese defence ministries on rules of behaviour for safety during air and maritime encounters, the US Pacific Fleet said.
The P-8A is deployed to the Kadena Air Force Base in Okinawa, Japan, and is part of a squadron that conducts routine operations, maritime patrols and reconnaissance in the US 7th Fleet area of operations, according to the statement.
China and the United States have exchanged tough words as tensions simmer over their military activities in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly over the South China Sea and Taiwan.
A Chinese destroyer is said to have pointed a laser at a US Navy aircraft near Guam.
Photo: Weibo The Chinese South Sea Fleet completed a 41-day drill in the western Pacific earlier this week, according to state media, in a move to show its military exercises were continuing even as the country battles the coronavirus epidemic.
Collin Koh, a research fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said the latest incident was a “serious provocation”, noting that the Chinese military had also pointed lasers at the US in Djibouti.
The South China Sea dispute explained
“Use of lasers is as dangerous as manoeuvring one’s aerial or naval asset too close to another to cause the potential of collision – the lasers can pose a serious navigational hazard,” Koh said.
“While both [the Chinese and US navies] have the legitimate right to carry out their activities on the high seas out there in the western Pacific – including the use of these platforms to monitor each other – the use of lasers to endanger navigation in fact represents a serious provocation,” he said.
“The US Navy P-8A might have flown lower for closer observation, but I don’t think it went to the point of risking a collision with the [Chinese] warship.”
The incident was likely to further undermine trust and military stability between China and the United States, Koh said.
Conflict prevention in the South China Sea depends on China abiding by the existing rules of navigation
27 Feb 2020
“It also wouldn’t be the first time the [Chinese navy] formations would have had ‘company’ from US military assets keeping tabs on them,” he said.
But Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping rejected the US Navy’s claim that the Chinese warship had violated the code of conduct, saying its action was just a routine warning.
“The US is unhappy because the Chinese fleet was very close to Guam, and it saw the Chinese fleet as taking an unfriendly measure against the US,” he said.
“But it’s normal for a naval fleet and aircraft to send warnings to each other,” Song said. “If the other side’s reconnaissance plane gets too close to vessels, it can be a security risk. So they take self-defence measures.”
A push to connect Pacific nations highlights a submarine struggle for dominance over the world’s technology infrastructure
The ambitions of Chinese tech giants like Huawei, which have laid thousands of kilometres of cable, are of increasing concern to Washington
The ambitions of Chinese tech giants like Huawei, which have laid thousands of kilometres of cable, are of increasing concern to Washington. Photo: Reuters
While the US has been upping the pressure on its allies not to include equipment made by Chinese telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE in their 5G systems, Chinese companies have gained a foothold in some of the world’s most essential communications infrastructure – undersea internet cables.
Smart telecom cables: climate change hope or submarine spying tech?
14 Dec 2019
Almost all global data communications flow through cables under the ocean – just one per cent travels by satellite – and Chinese companies have quietly been eroding US, European and Japanese dominance over the backbone of the internet, the undersea cable market. Now, they have trained their sights on connecting one of the most virtually remote parts of the globe, the Pacific Island countries.
Of the 378 cables currently operating worldwide, 23 are under the Pacific. But many of these cables run right by Pacific Island nations on their paths between hubs in Los Angeles, Tokyo and Singapore.
An electric submarine cable and optical fibre. File photo
Despite the volume of data flowing under the Pacific Ocean, just half a million of the 11 million people living in Pacific Island countries and Papua New Guinea – less than five per cent – have access to a wired internet connection and only 1.5 million to a mobile connection, according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia Pacific (UNESCAP), compared with 53 per cent of people in Thailand and 60 per cent in the Philippines.
More than US$4 billion worth of cables are to come into service by 2021, continuing a trend in which US$2 billion worth of cables have come online every year since 2016, and six of these cables will connect Pacific Island countries.
The push to connect Pacific Island nations to the latest generation of internet infrastructure has received extra scrutiny from the US and its allies like Australia
over the involvement of Chinese tech companies.
Choose Beijing over Taipei, Solomon Islands task force recommends
13 Sep 2019
SECURITY CONCERNS
While the US has moved to block Huawei from supplying equipment to its allies’ 5G networks, experts say Chinese tech companies could contest the US, EU and
long-standing dominance over global data traffic through investments in subsea cables.
Chinese tech giants like Huawei have entire divisions devoted to undersea connectivity that have laid thousands of kilometres of cable, and Chinese state telecommunication companies such as China Unicom have access to many of the existing trans-Pacific cables.
But a panel led by the US Department of Justice has held up a nearly complete trans-Pacific cable project over concerns about its Chinese investor, Beijing-based Dr Peng Telecom & Media Group.
The project, the Pacific Light Cable Network, could be the first cable rejected by the panel on the grounds of national security – despite being backed by American tech giants Google and Facebook – setting a precedent for a tougher US stance on Chinese involvement in subsea cables.
Chinese tech giants like Huawei have entire divisions devoted to undersea connectivity that have laid thousands of kilometres of cable. Photo: AP
Craige Sloots, director of sales at Southern Cross Cable Network, which operates the largest existing sets of trans-Pacific cables, said for any new cable, regulators were likely to scrutinise the ownership of the companies involved and the maker of the project’s equipment.
These two factors, said Sloots, “pragmatically limit some of the providers you can use if you want to connect through the US”.
Experts say that Hong Kong, where the stalled Pacific Light Cable would land, was previously considered a more secure shore landing point than mainland China. But people close to the project say the recent unrest in the city has made this distinction less relevant, according to The Wall Street Journal.
If these nations want to be part of the international economy, they need reliable communications: Bruce Howe, University of Hawaii
Similar concerns caused a proposed Huawei-backed cable linking Vanuatu with Papua New Guinea to be called off last year after Australia stepped in to fund its own cable instead.
Just months after the government-owned Solomon Islands Submarine Cable Company agreed to the project with Huawei in mid-2017, Canberra put up US$67 million to connect Sydney with the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea with cables laid under the Coral Sea by Nokia’s Alcatel Submarine Networks.
Simon Fletcher, CEO of Vanuatu company Interchange, which had been planning another cable in the neighbourhood connecting Vanuatu with the Solomon Islands, said the Coral Sea project undercut the viability for small private businesses to operate in the fledgling market, where services had historically been provided by international organisations like development banks. His company’s cable has been on pause since the announcement of the Coral Sea project, though Fletcher said it would go forward next year.
US-China battle for dominance extends across Pacific, above and below the sea
22 Jul 2019
VIRTUALLY REMOTE
For years, as Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore became global hubs of high-speed internet data traffic, the cables criss-crossing the ocean floor passed by just off the shores of Pacific Island countries en route between hubs on either side of the ocean.
Tiziana Bonapace, director of UNESCAP’s information technology and disaster risk-reduction division, said the Pacific Islands remain one of the most disconnected areas in the world, where “a vast proportion of the population has no access to the internet”.
Over the past five years, international organisations like UNESCAP, the Asia Development Bank and the World Bank have been pushing for better connectivity in the region. The World Bank’s Pacific Regional Connectivity Programme has invested more than US$90 million into broadband infrastructure for Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Palau, Samoa and Tuvalu.
Internet cables in the Pacific Ocean.
But the business case had never been good, said Bonapace.
“A cable has to travel thousands of kilometres just to connect a population smaller than one of Asia’s megacities,” she said. “As everything we do is somehow connected to the internet, the prospects for the Pacific to become virtually more remote are even higher.”
Even nations which are connected have tenuous infrastructure. In January, Tonga experienced a total internet blackout for two weeks after damage to its single cable. Most parts of the world were linked by multiple cables to prevent this type of outage, said Bruce Howe, professor of ocean and resources engineering at University of Hawaii.
“If these nations want to be part of the international economy, they need reliable communications,” Howe said.
Is Chinese support for Pacific nations shaping their stance on West Papua?
26 Aug 2019
DRAWING NEW LINES
In Papua New Guinea, where mobile internet currently reaches less than a third of the population, a partnership between local telecoms company GoPNG and the Export-Import Bank of China funded the new Huawei-built Kumul Domestic cable system, which came online this year.
The Southern Cross Next system, owned by Spark, Verizon, Singtel Optus and Telstra – the same group of shareholders which operates the massive 30,500km (19,000 mile) set of twin cables connecting the US with Australia and New Zealand known as Southern Cross – is planned to come online in 2022, and will connect directly to Fiji, Samoa, Kiribati and Tokelau.
Chinese telecoms company China Unicom counts the existing Southern Cross cables among its network capabilities – meaning it is likely to have access to the cable through a leasing agreement with one of the other companies that uses the cable, according to Canberra think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
An undersea fibre optic cable. Photo: AFP
China Unicom and China Telecom also list the Asia America Gateway Cable System as one of their network capabilities, according to ASPI. The 20,000km (12,400-mile) cable came online in 2009 and connects the US, Guam, Hong Kong, Brunei, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.
It is owned by a consortium of carriers including AT&T, Telekom Malaysia, Telstra and Spark.
A cable backed by Google and the Australian Academic and Research Network connecting Japan and Australia through Guam is to come online early next year.
China: the real reason Australia’s pumping cash into the Pacific?
28 Jul 2018
WHAT’S NEXT
Natasha Beschorner, senior digital development specialist at the World Bank, said that while there were challenges ahead in terms of broadband access and affordability, increased connectivity was starting to bring new opportunities to the Pacific.
“Digital technologies can contribute to economic diversification, income generation and service delivery in the Pacific,” Beschorner said. “E-commerce and financial technologies are emerging and governments are considering how to roll out selected services online.”
Experts say the industry has recently seen a switch from cables being mostly funded by telecommunication carriers to being funded by content providers, like Google and Facebook. Members of the private cable industry say content companies can afford to invest in cable infrastructure to ensure the supply chain for their customers, but that the competition puts the squeeze on the research-and-development budgets of other types of companies.
Sloots at Southern Cross predicted that the nations which connected directly to the massive next-generation cable – Samoa, Kiribati and Tokelau – would be able to function as connecting points for intra-Pacific cables.
“There’s a blossoming effect in capability once certain islands are connected,” Sloots said.
There is also the push to locate an exchange point within the Pacific so that internet data no longer has to travel to a hub in Tokyo or Los Angeles and back to Pacific nations when processing – a move that could ultimately lower the cost of broadband internet service for consumers in the Pacific.
Perhaps the most effective outcome could be for Pacific nations to cut the cord and receive their internet by satellite.
The Asian Development Bank has agreed to give a US$50 million loan to Singapore’s Kacific Broadband Satellites International to provide up to two billion people across the Asia-Pacific region with affordable satellite-based internet.
The project is to be launched into orbit by SpaceX next week and aims to begin providing service by early next year.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead delegation at two-day summit that is expected to be attended by 400 officials and 200 businesspeople
Observers say it is Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the region and will be closely watched in the US
Samoan capital Apia will host the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum, which begins on Sunday. Photo: Alamy
China will seek to expand its economic and diplomatic influence in the South Pacific at a forum this weekend, amid growing concern from the US and its allies over Beijing’s push in the strategically important region.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the third China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development Cooperation Forum in the Samoan capital Apia, which begins on Sunday. It is expected to be attended by 400 officials and more than 200 businesspeople.
Hu, the former Communist Party chief of China’s manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong who now overseas commercial and agricultural affairs, is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony.
Beijing sees the two-day forum as “timely” and “a good opportunity to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation between China and the Pacific”, a commerce ministry spokesperson told the official Economic Daily newspaper.
Trade, agriculture and fisheries, as well as tourism, infrastructure and climate change were at the top of the agenda for the forum, the spokesperson said.
Leaders of all the Pacific nations – except the four that do not have formal diplomatic ties with Beijing – are expected to attend the forum. Australia, which has “observer status” at the summit, will send Ewen McDonald, deputy secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the head of its Pacific office.
Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua will lead the Chinese delegation at the forum. Photo: EPA-EFE
The forum comes after China hailed a “new breakthrough” in the region following the decision last month by the Solomon Islands and then Kiribati – despite warnings from the US – to cut diplomatic ties with Taipei and switch to Beijing.
They are the latest of Taipei’s allies to be poached by Beijing as it ramps up pressure on the self-ruled island that it sees as a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Observers said this weekend’s forum was Beijing’s latest effort to regain momentum in the Pacific.
“Having one of China’s top 25 officials visit the region so soon after [Chinese President] Xi Jinping spent close to three days in Papua New Guinea last November is certainly significant,” said Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific Islands programme at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, referring to Hu’s position in the 25-member Politburo.
“It shows clearly China’s attempt to recapture momentum after the West, and in particular Australia, have redoubled their efforts in maintaining and building relationships in the Pacific,” he said.
Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister Peter O’Neill (second from left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (second from right) pose for a photo during Xi’s visit in November. Photo: AFP
First held in Fiji in 2006, the forum is part of China’s efforts to expand its reach in the resource-rich region.
Back then, premier Wen Jiabao announced 3 billion yuan of concessional loans to Pacific nations and promised to facilitate more trade, medical aid and tourism with the countries. Chinese capital has been pouring into the region – particularly from the mining and fisheries sectors – ever since.
Of note was a 440 million yuan investment, supported by loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, to build a central business centre at Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga.
US and allies sideline China in PNG’s Bougainville by helping fund independence vote
As China’s influence grows, the South Pacific – a region traditionally under US hegemony, and on Australia’s doorstep – has “increasingly become a major power that cannot be neglected” and “an important part of China’s greater strategic landscape”, according to Shi Chunlin, an associate professor at Dalian Maritime University.
Trade has increased between China and the eight Pacific nations that have diplomatic ties with Beijing, rising to a combined US$4.32 billion last year – up 25 per cent from 2017.
China has also become the largest trading partner of new ally the Solomons, the second-largest to Papua New Guinea and Fiji, and the third-largest to Samoa.
China’s direct investment in the region has also jumped, reaching US$4.53 billion last year, a more than fourfold increase from the US$900 million of 2013.
Pryke said Beijing was expected to offer new support and loans to the Pacific nations.
“But the Pacific are much more picky about how they want to engage with all partners than they were a decade ago,” he added.
Returning from a trip to China earlier this month, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare confirmed Beijing would provide a US$74 million grant to build a new stadium for the 2023 Pacific Games in the capital Honiara – something its former ally Taipei had committed to fund.
China Sam Group also reportedly signed an agreement on September 22 to lease the island of Tulagi in the Solomons, the site of a former Japanese naval base. The agreement mentioned the development of a refinery on the island, but critics said it could also potentially be used as a military base.
China is now the second-largest donor in the region, only after Australia, which has viewed Beijing’s financial largesse with suspicion.
Last year, in an apparent effort to counter China’s rising influence in the region, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced that Pacific countries would be offered up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans to build infrastructure.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last year announced up to US$2.18 billion in grants and cheap loans for infrastructure in Pacific nations. Photo: EPA-EFE
The US, meanwhile, has also been wary of China’s push in the Pacific, amid an escalating geopolitical competition between the world’s two largest economies across many fronts – from trade to tech supremacy and security. The US has long maintained exclusive defence access in the region through its Guam military base and security pacts with the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.
Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst with the US-based Rand Corporation, said this year’s forum in Samoa was likely to be higher profile than previous years after Beijing lured away two more diplomatic allies from Taipei.
He said it would be “closely watched in the US for how Beijing continues to leverage sweet economic deals via its Belt and Road Initiative to potentially entice others to switch”.
“The US, along with close friends Australia, Japan and New Zealand, are becoming increasingly concerned over the prospects for China to one day curry enough influence in these small island states to gain port access that could be used for new naval bases,” he said.
The most important issue at the forum, he said, would be “whether the West assesses that China is making further inroads with these states”.
“The likely answer will be that it is, suggesting that the US and its partners will have to compete with China in this region to ensure that it remains ‘free and open’, per the US Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said.
At least 13 people have been killed and more than a million forced from their homes as Typhoon Lekima hit China.
Sixteen people were also missing after a landslide was triggered by the storm, state media reported.
Lekima made landfall in the early hours of Saturday in Wenling, between Taiwan and China’s financial capital Shanghai.
The storm was initially designated a “super typhoon”, but weakened slightly before landfall – when it still had winds of 187km/h (116mph).
The fatal landslide happened when a dam broke in Wenzhou, near where the storm made landfall, state media said.
Lekima is now slowly winding its way north through the Zhejiang province, and is expected to hit Shanghai, which has a population of more than 20 million.
Emergency crews have battled to save stranded motorists from floods. Fallen trees and power cuts are widespread.
Image copyright EPAImage caption A worker looks for his belongings at a construction site shelter collapsed by the storm
Authorities have cancelled more than a thousand flights and cancelled train services as the city prepares for the storm.
It is expected to weaken further by the time it reaches Shanghai, but will still bring a high risk of dangerous flooding.
The city evacuated some 250,000 residents, with another 800,000 in the Zhejiang province also being taken from their homes.
An estimated 2.7 million homes in the region lost power as power lines toppled in the high winds, Chinese state media said.
It is the ninth typhoon of the year, Xinhua news said – but the strongest storm seen in years. It was initially given China’s highest level of weather warning but was later downgraded to an “orange” level.
Media caption Typhoon Lekima inches towards China
Chinese weather forecasters said the storm was moving north at just 15km/h (9mph).
It earlier passed Taiwan, skirting its northern tip and causing a handful of injuries and some property damage.
Coming just a day after a magnitude six earthquake, experts warned that the combination of earth movement and heavy rain increased the risk of landslides.
Lekima is one of two typhoons in the western Pacific at the moment.
Further east, Typhoon Krosa is spreading heavy rain across the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. It is moving north-west and could strike Japan some time next week, forecasters said.
Image copyright AFPImage caption Lekima has brought heavy rain to Taiwan
Chinese authorities have declared a red alert as a powerful typhoon heads towards the eastern coast.
Typhoon Lekima is currently battering Taiwan with winds of more than 190km/h (120mph) and is due to make landfall in China’s Zhejiang province on Saturday.
Emergency teams have been deployed to the region to guide relief work, China’s emergency ministry said.
Thousands of people further up the coast in Shanghai have been warned to prepare to evacuate.
Lekima, which is the ninth typhoon so far this year, strengthened into a super typhoon late on Wednesday, but Taiwanese authorities have since downgraded it to a regular typhoon.
Flood warnings have been issued for eastern sections of China’s Yangtze River and the Yellow River until Wednesday. The provinces of Jiangsu and Shandong are also on alert.
Cruise liners have been told to delay their arrival in Shanghai and some train services have been suspended over the weekend.
Beijing has also cancelled some trains heading to and from the Yangtze delta region.
Lekima is one of two typhoons in the western Pacific at the moment. Further east, Typhoon Krosa is spreading heavy rain across the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam. It is moving north-west and could strike Japan some time next week, forecasters said.
Media caption BBC Weather’s Sarah Keith-Lucas on typhoons Lekima and Krosa
Lekima was passing the north of Taiwan on Friday, causing flight cancellations and the closures of schools and offices.
Power was cut to more than 40,000 homes and the island’s high speed rail service was suspended north of the city of Taichung, local media reported.
The huge storm came a day after eastern Taiwan was rattled by a 6.0 magnitude earthquake. Experts said the risks of landslides triggered by the tremor were made more likely by the typhoon dumping up to 900mm (35 inches) of rain on Taiwan’s northern mountains.
Media caption The 6.0 earthquake in Taiwan was caught on cat cam
Lekima also brought heavy rain and high winds to south-west Japan on Friday, cutting power to about 14,000 homes, broadcaster NHK reported.
China’s weather bureau said Lekima was expected to have weakened further by the time it made landfall. The country has a four-stage colour-coded warning system, with red representing the most severe weather.
China’s ballistic missile technology is advancing rapidly and recent demonstrations of its capabilities leave little doubt that when it comes to military dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing is keen to send a message to Washington that the United States is not the only player in town.
Last month, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) showed off its firepower by running a simulated strike mission using a Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and revealing footage of the improved stability of Dongfeng-26 (DF-26) ballistic missile.
With its capability to deliver a nuclear warhead almost anywhere in the world, the DF-41 is China’s most advanced ICBM and has been the subject of intense speculation by Western analysts for the past decade.
At 16.5 metres (54 feet) it is slightly longer than its predecessor, the DF-31A, and with a range of up to 15,000km (9,320 miles) it not only flies further than either of its main rivals – the United States’ LGM-30 Minuteman (13,000km) and Russia’s RT-2PM2 Topol-M (11,000km) – but is capable of striking any part of the Russian or US mainland.
The fourth-generation missile has a top speed of Mach 25 (25 times the speed of sound) and as a “multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle” can carry at least 10 warheads, each of which can be aimed at a different target.
The DF-41 can be fired from a silo-based platform or a road- or rail-based mobile launcher. The latter makes it more able to evade attack and in turn increases its value as a deterrent.
Song Zhongping, a missile expert and former officer with the PLA’s Second Artillery Force, said that the recent reports released by state media that Beijing had run a simulation of a second-strike against an “imaginary enemy” from an underground facility, showed the DF-41 was already in service.
A second-strike is a response to a nuclear attack with an equally powerful force.
While the location of the deployment is unknown it is widely thought to have been somewhere in northeast China, close to the Russian border.
The DF-26 is China’s next generation intermediate-range ballistic missile and takes its nickname from the fact its range – of 3,000km to 5,740km – puts the US island of Guam in the western Pacific and American military bases in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean within striking distance.
Operated by the PLARF, the solid-fuel missile system can be carried on a 12-wheeled Taian transporter erector launcher truck. This makes it difficult for US intelligence services to track and counter, either with their sea-based Aegis missile defences or, as on Guam, the long-range THAAD anti-missile interceptors.
Capable of carrying two types of nuclear warheads and many types of conventional ones – with a payload of 1,200kg (2,650lbs) to 1,800kg – the 14-metre-long missile can also be used for anti-ship strikes, such as US aircraft carriers and naval bases in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s defence ministry confirmed last year that the DF-26 had entered service, and amid growing military tensions with Taiwan and the US, state broadcaster CCTV last month released the first ever footage of a DF-26 launch.
At least one missile was used in an exercise in northwest China and the four finlike flight control surfaces seen around its nose appear to have been designed to improve its stability.
Military analysts said the fins would provide greater stability as the missile neared a moving target, such as an aircraft carrier.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
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