Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
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Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAUImage caption The area has become a hotspot in part because of a road India has built
The armies of the world’s two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.
Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.
The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.
The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi – this is not a routine incursion.
“The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo,” says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army.
China takes a different view, saying it’s India which has changed facts on the ground.
Reports in the Indian media said soldiers from the two sides clashed on at least two occasions in Ladakh. Stand-offs are reported in at least three locations: the Galwan valley; Hot Springs; and Pangong lake to the south.
India and China share a border more than 3,440km (2,100 miles) long and have overlapping territorial claims. Their border patrols often bump into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles but both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades.
Their armies – two of the world’s largest – come face to face at many points. The poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) separates the two sides. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line separating soldiers can shift and they often come close to confrontation.
The current military tension is not limited to Ladakh. Soldiers from the two sides are also eyeball-to-eyeball in Naku La, on the border between China and the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim. Earlier this month they reportedly came to blows.
And there’s a row over a new map put out by Nepal, too, which accuses India of encroaching on its territory by building a road connecting with China.
Why are tensions rising now?
There are several reasons – but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.
“The traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh,” Mr Shukla says.
India’s decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.
Image copyright AFPImage caption There have been protests in Nepal against Indi’s new road link
“According to the Chinese military, India is the one which has forced its way into the Galwan valley. So, India is changing the status quo along the LAC – that has angered the Chinese,” says Dr Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA), a think tank.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center, another think tank, says this face-off is not routine. He adds China’s “massive deployment of soldiers is a show of strength”.
The road could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.
Differences have been growing in the past year over other areas of policy too.
The new federally-administered Ladakh included Aksai Chin, an area India claims but China controls.
Senior leaders of India’s Hindu-nationalist BJP government have also been talking about recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A strategic road, the Karakoram highway, passes through this area that connects China with its long-term ally Pakistan. Beijing has invested about $60bn (£48bn) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative and the highway is key to transporting goods to and from the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.
In addition, China was unhappy when India initially banned all exports of medical and protective equipment to shore up its stocks soon after the coronavirus pandemic started earlier this year.
How dangerous could this get?
“We routinely see both armies crossing the LAC – it’s fairly common and such incidents are resolved at the local military level. But this time, the build-up is the largest we have ever seen,” says former Indian diplomat P Stobdan, an expert in Ladakh and India-China affairs.
“The stand-off is happening at some strategic areas that are important for India. If Pangong lake is taken, Ladakh can’t be defended. If the Chinese military is allowed to settle in the strategic valley of Shyok, then the Nubra valley and even Siachen can be reached.”
In what seems to be an intelligence failure, India seems to have been caught off guard again. According to Indian media accounts, the country’s soldiers were outnumbered and surrounded when China swiftly diverted men and machines from a military exercise to the border region.
This triggered alarm in Delhi – and India has limited room for manoeuvre. It can either seek to persuade Beijing to withdraw its troops through dialogue or try to remove them by force. Neither is an easy option.
“China is the world’s second-largest military power. Technologically it’s superior to India. Infrastructure on the other side is very advanced. Financially, China can divert its resources to achieve its military goals, whereas the Indian economy has been struggling in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation,” says Ajai Shukla.
What next?
History holds difficult lessons for India. It suffered a humiliating defeat during the 1962 border conflict with China. India says China occupies 38,000km of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary issues.
China already controls the Aksai Chin area further east of Ladakh and this region, claimed by India, is strategically important for Beijing as it connect its Xinjiang province with western Tibet.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India and China have a long history of border disputes
In 2017 India and China were engaged in a similar stand-off lasting more than two months in Doklam plateau, a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.
This time, too, talks are seen as the only way forward – both countries have so much to lose in a military conflict.
“China has no intention to escalate tensions and I think India also doesn’t want a conflict. But the situation depends on both sides. The Indian government should not be guided by the nationalistic media comments,” says Dr Long Xingchun of the CIWA in Chengdu. “Both countries have the ability to solve the dispute through high-level talks.”
Chinese media have given hardly any coverage to the border issue, which is being interpreted as a possible signal that a route to talks will be sought.
Pratyush Rao, associate director for South Asia at Control Risks consultancy, says both sides have “a clear interest in prioritising their economic recovery” and avoiding military escalation.
“It is important to recognise that both sides have a creditable record of maintaining relative peace and stability along their disputed border.”
Image copyright WTIImage caption The tiger was seen relaxing in a bed in Assam state
A female tiger which fled a wildlife park in India’s flood-ravaged state of Assam was found relaxing on a bed inside a local resident’s house.
She is believed to have fled the Kaziranga National Park, where 92 animals have died in recent days amid heavy flooding.
Officials from a wildlife conservation group arrived at the house and created a safe escape route for her.
She was guided in the direction of the jungle.
According to the Wildlife Trust of India (WTI), the tigress was first spotted next to a highway on Thursday morning, some 200 metres away from the national park.
She was likely to have been disturbed by the busy road and ended up seeking refuge in the house, which is located near the highway, it said.
Image copyright WTIImage caption The house owner fled as soon as he saw the tiger
Rathin Barman, who led the rescue operation, said the tigress entered the house – which is next to a shop – at 07:30 local time (02:00 GMT) and slept throughout the day.
“She was very exhausted and had a nice day-long nap,” he told the BBC.
The house owner, Motilal, who also owns the adjoining shop, fled the house along with his family members as soon as they saw the tiger walking in.
“The great thing was that nobody disturbed her so she could rest. There’s a lot of respect for wildlife in this region,” Mr Barman said.
“[Motilal] says he will preserve the bed sheet and pillow on which the tiger rested.”
WTI officials were later called to the scene and began preparing a safe escape route for her.
They blocked traffic on the highway for an hour and set off firecrackers to wake the animal up. She eventually left the house at 17:30 local time, crossed the highway and went in the direction of the forest.
Media caption Floods cause death and destruction in north India
Mr Barman said it was not clear if she had actually entered the forest or if she had just “walked off into an adjoining area”.
The Unesco-recognised Kaziranga National Park is home to 110 tigers, but none of them have died in the flooding.
Animals killed in the park include 54 hog deer, seven rhinos, six wild boars and one elephant.
One Sleeper Coach passenger bus travelling from Lucknow to Delhi met with an accident on Yamuna Expressway. It fell into the side fall about 15 feet deep.
20 passengers rescued so far. Efforts are on for the rest.
About 900 people have been killed on the road since it opened in 2012, according to authorities.
Road accidents in India are usually blamed on badly maintained vehicles, poor driving and the state of the roads.
Correspondents say buses in rural India are often old and rickety. Many also do not follow or enforce basic safety measures – it’s not uncommon to see people crowding into buses or even travelling on the roof if they cannot find a seat inside.
President Tsai Ing-wen says Taipei should ‘maintain a high degree of vigilance’
Exercise simulates response to attack from mainland on military bases
President Tsai Ing-wen and senior Taiwanese military staff during an exercise in southern county Changhua, not far from one of the island’s main airbases at Taichung. Photo: Facebook
Taiwanese warplanes landed on a highway on Tuesday as part of annual exercises designed to test the island’s military capabilities and resolve to repel an attack from the mainland across the Taiwan Strait.
President Tsai Ing-wen watched the exercise in the southern county of Changhua, not far from one of Taiwan’s main airbases at Taichung.
“Our national security has faced multiple challenges,” Tsai said. “Whether it is the Chinese Communist Party’s [People’s Liberation Army] long-distance training or its fighter jets circling Taiwan, it has posed a certain degree of threat to regional peace and stability.
“We should maintain a high degree of vigilance,” she said.
Taiwanese warplanes are parked on a highway during an exercise to simulate a response to a mainland attack on its airfields in Changhua. Photo: AP
Aircraft involved in the exercise included US-made F-16 Fighting Falcons, French Mirage 2000s, Taiwan-made IDF fighter jets and US-built Northrop Grumman E-2 Hawkeye surveillance aircraft.
Ground crews practised refuelling and ammunition replenishment before the aircraft returned to the air. About 1,600 service personnel were mobilised in Tuesday’s exercise.
The event marked the exercise debut of the first F-16 upgraded to the V variant, featuring advanced radar and combat capabilities. Taiwan is spending about US$4.21 billion to upgrade 144 F-16As and Bs to the F-16V version.
Rare meeting between Taiwanese, US security officials angers Beijing
Taiwan buys military hardware mainly from the US and has asked to purchase new F-16V fighters and M1 Abrams tanks.
American arms sales to Taiwan have long been a thorn in the side of US relations with China, routinely drawing protests from Beijing that Washington had reneged on commitments.
Beijing has also been angered by warming relations between Taipei and Washington since Tsai came to power in 2016.
On Monday, Beijing reacted frostily to photos showing a rare meeting between uniformed Taiwanese officers and their US counterparts this month.
A Mirage 2000-5 fighter jet takes off from a highway during an emergency take-off and landing drill in Changhua, Taiwan. Photo: EPA
Last week, Beijing lodged a protest with Washington after two US warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan expected to be outgunned in terms of troop numbers and firepower in any war with mainland China but it claimed to have had developed sophisticated asymmetric warfare tactics to make any invasion costly for Beijing.
“There are only a few military airbases which would become the prime targets in the event of an attack. The highway drill is necessary as highway strips would be our priority choice if the runways were damaged during a war,” air force Colonel Shu Kuo-mao.
Taiwan changes name of de facto embassy in United States to ‘reflect stronger ties’
Taiwan’s Central News Agency said highway take-off and landing drills last took place in 2014. A military source told CNA that Tuesday’s drill was not much different from those conducted by the military during the Han Kuang exercises, but it was still challenging.
Among the challenges were that the drill could not be rehearsed and it required clear communications between the military, police and the National Freeway Bureau, said the source.
Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU
Image copyright AFP
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 