Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
China’s military budget will still rise despite coronavirus, experts predict
3 May 2020
The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
China opens coronavirus hospital built in 10 days
At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
China’s long-range stealth bomber could make its debut this year
4 May 2020
According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
Chinese military takes aim at operations by American warships near the Spratly and Paracel islands
US says sweeping maritime claims in the area pose a threat to freedom of the seas
The USS Bunker Hill (front) and the USS Barry have been conducting operations in the South China Sea. Photo: US Navy
The Chinese military called the United States a “troublemaker” in the disputed South China Sea on Thursday, stressing that China was on “high alert” to safeguard its interests in the contested waters.
The two powers, already mired in a dispute over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, have engaged in tense stand-offs over the South China Sea, with two back-to-back operations by the US to challenge China’s expansive claims in the region in the last few days.
The US’ guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill conducted a “freedom of navigation operation” in the Spratly Islands on Wednesday, a day after the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry conducted a similar operation near the Paracel Islands.
The US 7th Fleet said the operations were in response to “unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea [that] pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas, including the freedoms of navigation and overflight and the right of innocent passage of all ships”.
More footage emerges from 2018 near collision of US and China warships in South China Sea
And last week, an Australian frigate joined US warships in a joint exercise in the South China Sea after the Chinese research ship Haiyang Dizhi 8, accompanied by a Chinese coastguard vessel, tailed a Malaysian state oil company ship conducting exploration in the area.
China’s defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian said China had been “closely watching and on high alert” against the activities by the US and Australian militaries.
“The frequent military operations in the South China Sea by extra-regional countries like the US and Australia are not conducive to the peace and stability in the South China Sea and we resolutely oppose them,” Wu said.
“Time and again, the US has proven itself to be the biggest force in pushing militarisation in the South China Sea and a troublemaker in preventing peace and stability in the region.”
China military lashes out at US warship’s ‘intrusion’ in South China Sea
29 Apr 2020
On Tuesday, the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command said the
The command said it scrambled air and sea patrols to “track, monitor, verify, identify and expel” the American vessels.
Also on Thursday, Wu rejected a US report that China had secretly conducted an underground nuclear test.
Citing a report from the US State Department, The Wall Street Journal reported two weeks ago that Washington was concerned by an increase in activity at China’s Lop Nur test site in the far western region of Xinjiang, including extensive excavations that raised the suspicion of an explosion.
“The report by the US is fabricated and nonsense,” Wu said. “China, unlike the US, has always kept its promise on international arms control.”
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Indian economy is likely to suffer its worst quarter since the mid-1990s, hit by the ongoing lockdown imposed to stem the spread of coronavirus, according to a Reuters poll, which predicted a mild and gradual recovery.
Over 2.6 million people tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 have been infected by the coronavirus worldwide and more than 180,000 have died. Business and household lockdowns have disrupted supply chains globally, bringing growth to a halt.
The April 17-22 Reuters poll predicted the economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.0% last quarter but will shrink 5.2% in the three months ending in June, far weaker than expectations in a poll published last month for 4.0% and 2.0% growth, respectively.
The predicted contraction would be the first – under any gross domestic product calculation, which has changed a few times – since the mid-1990s, when official reporting for quarterly data began.
“The extended lockdown until early May adds further downside risk to our view of a 5% year-on-year GDP fall in the current quarter, the worst in the last few decades,” said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.
“We don’t consider economic stimulus as strong enough to position the economy for a speedy recovery once the pandemic ends,” he said.
(Graphic: Reuters poll graphic on coronavirus impact on the Indian economy IMAGE link: here)
The Indian government announced a spending package of 1.7 trillion rupees in March to cushion the economy from the initial lockdown, which has been extended until May 3.
In an emergency meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of India cut its deposit rate again, after reducing it on March 27 and lowering the main policy rate by 75 basis points. It also announced another round of targeted long-term repo operations to ease liquidity.
But even with those measures, 40% of economists, or 13 of 32 – who provided quarterly figures – predicted an outright recession this year. Only one had expected a recession last month.
In the worst case, a smaller sample of respondents predicted, the economy would contract 9.3% in the current quarter. That compares with 0.5% growth in the previous poll’s worst-case forecast in late March, underscoring how rapidly the outlook has deteriorated.
The latest poll’s consensus view still shows the economy recovering again slowly in the July-September quarter, growing 0.8%, then 4.2% in October-December and 6.0% in the final quarter of the fiscal year, in early 2021.
But that compares with considerably more optimistic near-term forecasts of 3.3%, 5.0% and 5.6%, respectively, in the previous poll.
“A rebound in economic activity following the disruption is expected, but the low starting point of growth implies a gradual recovery,” said Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley.
“Indeed, before disruptions related to COVID-19, growth was slowing, with domestic issues of risk aversion in financial sector … (and) those concerns will likely stay after the COVID-19 disruptions have passed unless the policy response is much larger than expected,” she said.
The unemployment rate has tripled to 23.8% since the lockdown started on March 25, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a Mumbai-based research firm.
The Indian economy was now forecast to expand 1.5% in the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2021 – the weakest since 1991 and significantly lower than 3.6% predicted in late March. It probably grew 4.6% in the fiscal year that just ended.
Under a worst-case scenario, the median showed the economy shrinking 1.0% this fiscal year. That would be the first officially reported economic contraction for a 12-month period since GDP was reported to have contracted for calendar year 1979.
“Unless fiscal policy is also loosened aggressively alongside monetary policy, there is a big risk the drastic economic slowdown currently underway morphs into an annual contraction in output and that the recovery is hampered,” said Shilan Shah, senior India economist at Capital Economics.
All 37 economists who answered a separate question unanimously said the RBI would follow up with more easing, including lowering the repo and reverse repo rates and expanding the new long-term loans programme.
The RBI was expected to cut its repo rate by another 40 basis points to 4.00% by the end of this quarter. Already lowered twice over the past month by a cumulative 115 basis points, the reverse repo rate was forecast to be trimmed by another 25 points by end-June to 3.50%.
Some companies polled by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce said they were speeding up plans to move operations out of mainland
Transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity
China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or lower because of the outbreak, according to a government economist. Photo: Bloomberg
The majority of US firms with operations in China expect a virus outbreak
to cut revenue this year, and some are accelerating plans to shift their supply chains out of the country, according to a poll by Shanghai’s American Chamber of Commerce.
Nearly a quarter of the firms forecast revenue would fall by at least 16 per cent this year due to the outbreak, while over a fifth said it would decline by 11-15 per cent. Only 13 per cent of respondents said revenue would see very little or no impact from the virus.
The survey covered 127 companies, including 20 with China-sourced revenues of over US$500 million and 27 with China revenues of US$100 million to US$500 million.
Sixteen per cent of respondents expected China’s gross domestic product to fall by more than 2 per cent due to the outbreak.
China tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak
The death toll from the virus in China has topped 600, with more than 31,000 people infected. Widespread transport bans and strict public health measures have disrupted economic activity in much of the country, and factory closures are starting to ripple through global supply chains.
China faces dilemma as it tries to get back to work amid coronavirus outbreak fears
7 Feb 2020
A government economist said last week that China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent or even lower due to the outbreak, possibly pushing policymakers into introducing more stimulus measures.
Sources said Chinese policymakers were preparing measures, including more fiscal spending and interest rate cuts, amid expectations the outbreak would have a devastating impact on first-quarter growth.
In response to the virus, some survey respondents said they were shifting operations out of China and moving more production to other areas, including India.
“Not innovative, but our suppliers are moving operations to Taiwan. This has been considered before, options and planning were being made, but they are pulling the trigger now,” according to one respondent in the survey.
“Our company will directly source from Taiwan and eliminate the mainland China supply chain for more and more products.”
UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) — A Chinese envoy on Monday said that several actions can be taken to improve the UN peacekeeping operations.
Speaking at a plenary meeting of the Special Committee on peacekeeping operations, Wu Haitao, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, said that the UN peacekeeping operations are facing new challenges while playing an important role in maintaining international peace and security.
To improve the management of peacekeeping operations, the UN Secretariat should optimize its logistical support mechanisms, strengthen training during deployment, and enhance the capacity to deal with complex situations, said the Chinese envoy.
According to Wu, the Secretariat’s new peace and security architecture and management structure are operational now, and the new structures are expected to be effective on integration of resources, improve service management and operational efficiency.
“More attentions should be paid to the safety of peacekeepers,” he said.
Wu said that security risks and casualties among peacekeepers were on the rise, the Secretariat and the missions should formulate security rules in an integrated manner, strengthen information collection and sharing, ensure that security equipment and measures are in place, and strengthen medical ambulance capacity effectively.
Wu also said that the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations have to be strictly abided by, as well as the basic principles of peacekeeping operations.
“Principles such as sovereign equality, non-interference in internal affairs and peaceful settlement of disputes, should always be observed, ” Wu said, adding that in order to carry out their work smoothly, these are the prerequisite and guarantee for peacekeeping operations to win the trust of the member states.
Wu also highlighted the importance of political settlement, saying that it is the “core element of UN peacekeeping operations.
“Political priorities should permeate all phases of operations. Clear, viable and focused mandates should be made for peacekeeping missions, and continuous adjustments of priorities need to be undertaken at all stages in response to dynamic needs,” said the Chinese envoy.
The initial rescue operation to help the miners had to be stopped as the pumps were not adequate to flush out large volumes of water. The state government then sough Centre’s help and high-powered pumps and a team was dispatched from Odisha.
An Indian Navy team has reached the mine in Meghalaya’s East Jaintia Hills where 15 people have been trapped since December 13 but will begin their operations on Sunday morning. (HT Photo)
After delays and hiccups, two teams of rescuers—one comprising divers from Indian Navy and another from the Odisha fire services—reached the flooded coal mine in Meghalaya on Saturday where 15 miners are trapped since December 13.
But except conducting recce at the site located at Khloo Ryngksan in East Jaintia Hills district and attempts to set up the high-powered pumps needed to flush out water nothing much happened during the day. Actual work on the ground will begin early on Sunday morning.
National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Assistant Commandant Santosh Kumar Singh, who is overseeing operations at the rat hole coal mine. said a three member team of the Indian Navy visited the site.”They did a recce of the spot, spent 30 minutes inside the main pit. They also held a meeting with us and are likely to start operation tomorrow. Now that they are here we will assist them,” he said.
The water levels inside the mine remains unchanged, he said.
A team of Odisha fire and emergency services, who finally reached the spot, tried to install their high-powered pumps. “They may be operational by tomorrow,” Singh said.
“Pumps and other machinery are being installed at the site. Everyone is working overtime with extreme dedication and zeal as our mission is to save lives. That is our top priority,” East Jaiñtia Hills district police chief Silvester Nongtnger told Hindustan Times.
He aid that after all the gear has been installed and put into place on Saturday night, rescue operations will begin on Sunday morning. “We will start right from the first hour itself.”
The initial rescue operation to help the miners started on December 14 once the NDRF and SDRF teams arrived. On December 17, a team of Directorate General of Mine Safety along with Coal India officials arrived and suggested 100 HP submersible pumps be used. The district administration wrote to the state government seeking immediate help from Coal India on December 20. However, it was only on December 26 that Coal India received a request from state government for assistance.
The rescue operation launched by the state government had to be stopped as the pumps were not adequate to flush out large volumes of water. The state government then sough Centre’s help and high-powered pumps and a team was dispatched from Odisha.
The team reached Guwahati on Friday morning around 11:30 am, but due to lack of transport provided by Meghalaya they had to wait till 5:45 pm to start their 220 km journey to the mine.
“Initially we were told that we would be travelling by trucks. Then the plan was changed and it was decided that dumpers would be used to shift the equipment to the accident site,” said Sukant Sethi, Chief Fire Officer (Odisha), who is leading the team.
“By the time we reached a primary school (located 25 km from the mine) where we were supposed to spend the night it was 2 am on Saturday. There was no person from Meghalaya government’s side who helped us with basic needs,” Sethi said.
Despite the problems faced by them, the team was keen to reach the spot soon to help the trapped miners. They finally reached around 1 pm on Saturday
Another aspect of seemingly lukewarm response by the government has emerged. Tata Trusts had offered to lend two pumps which it had airlifted from London to augment rescue efforts during the Kerala floods to Meghalaya but till date, there has been no response from the government.
Efforts to reach Peter W Ingty, additional chief secretary in-charge revenue and disaster management by Hindustan Times proved futile as he did not respond to calls.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
