Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump has little choice but to stick with his Phase 1 China trade deal despite his anger at Beijing over the coronavirus pandemic, new Hong Kong security rules, and dwindling hopes China can meet U.S. goods purchase targets, people familiar with his administration’s deliberations say.
The U.S.-China trade negotiations took more than two years, heaped tariffs on $370 billion of Chinese products, whipsawed financial markets and dimmed global growth prospects well before the coronavirus outbreak crushed them.
In recent weeks, suggestions that Trump may cancel the deal have emanated from the White House almost daily, and businesses, investors, and China trade watchers are hanging on to every word and tweet.
But on Friday, when Trump said the United States would start dismantling trade and travel privileges for Hong Kong, he did not mention the deal. Stock markets heaved a sigh of relief, with the S&P 500 .SPX reversing losses.
Talking tough on China and criticizing the Obama administration’s more measured approach is a key part of Trump’s re-election strategy. Sticking with the pact may mean accepting that China is likely to fall short of purchase commitments for U.S. agricultural goods, manufactured products, energy and services – goals that many said were unrealistic here even before the pandemic.
Canceling the deal, though, would reignite the nearly two-year U.S.-China trade war at a time U.S. unemployment is at its worst since the 1930s Great Depression.
The next U.S. step would likely be reviving previously planned but canceled tariffs on some $165 billion worth of Chinese consumer goods, including Apple (AAPL.O) cellphones and computers, toys and clothing – all ultimately paid by U.S. companies and passed on to consumers. Beijing would retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods, fueling more market turmoil and delaying recovery.
“He’s stuck with a lemon. He gets an empty agreement if he sticks with it, and he gets more actions that create an economic drag and more volatility if he abandons it,” said one person briefed on the administration’s trade deliberations.
U.S. goods exports here to China in the first quarter were down $4 billion from the trade war-damaged levels a year earlier, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
The Peterson Institute of International Economics estimates here that during the first quarter, China made only about 40% of the purchases it needed to stay on target for a first-year increase of $77 billion over 2017 levels, implying an extremely steep climb in the second half.
Leaving the deal now would not buy a lasting political bounce for Trump in manufacturing-heavy swing states with five months to go before the presidential election, analysts say.
COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP
Trump blames China for failing to contain the coronavirus and has repeatedly said the deal, including its pledges to boost U.S. exports to China by $200 billion over two years, no longer means as much to him with U.S. coronavirus deaths now over 100,000 and job losses piling up.
Trump said on Friday that China was “absolutely smothering Hong Kong’s freedom,” but refrained from harsh sanctions that could put the trade deal in jeopardy, taking milder steps to revoke the territory’s separate travel and customs benefits from China.
Claire Reade, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said Trump’s “peripheral steps” would not deter Beijing from proceeding with the security law, as it regards Hong Kong as a core national security issue.
“Probably the most significant thing from the trade perspective is that the Phase 1 trade deal is – for now anyway – unaffected,” said Reade, senior counsel with Arnold and Porter law firm in Washington.
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow criticized Beijing last week, but on trade told CNBC: “It’s a complex relationship. The China Phase 1 trade deal does continue to go on for the moment and we may be making progress there.”
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has recently cited here “continuing progress” in the deal, after China welcomed U.S. blueberries, barley, beef and dairy products. He has touted the deal’s dispute settlement mechanism, which provides for regular consultations on compliance with Beijing’s commitments on intellectual property protections, financial services, agriculture standards and purchases.
U.S.-China flashpoints on Hong Kong, Taiwan and other issues did not derail negotiations that resulted in new concessions from China, said Jamieson Greer, who served as Lighthizer’s chief of staff until April.
“Some of these security and human rights challenges have certainly complicated the atmosphere, but the trade agreement can still provide a set of rules governing important aspects of the trade relationship,” said Greer, now an international trade partner at the King and Spalding law firm.
Another person familiar with USTR thinking said the agency “needs to make Phase 1 look good. They want to show that progress is being made. The president looks at the China relationship much more broadly.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Within a week of reopening, India has seen a sharp spike in cases
India is roaring – rather than inching – back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC’s Aparna Alluri finds out why.
On Saturday, India’s government announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.
This was expected – the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hotels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.
But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone – the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Fast food chains like McDonald’s have begun reopening outlets in parts of India.
So, why the rush to reopen?
The lockdown is simply unaffordable
“It’s certainly time to lift the lockdown,” says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.
“Beyond a point, it’s hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long – economically, socially and psychologically.”
From day one, India’s lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business – from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India’s growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.
Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be “devastating”.
The opinion is shared by global consultant Mckinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India’s economy must be “managed alongside persistent infection risks”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption As restrictions ease, Indians are slowly getting used to the new normal
“The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and systems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes],” says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. “That objective, to a large extent, has been met.”
In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of protective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the government has bought as much time as possible.
“We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy,” Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.
The silver lining
For weeks, India’s relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates explain the former, but not the latter.
In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown – millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.
Perhaps the choice – between a virus that didn’t appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was – seemed obvious to the government.
But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. “I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms,” Dr Devadasan says.
The hope – which is also encouraging the government to reopen – is that most of India’s undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.
The government, for instance, has been touting India’s mortality rate as a silver lining – at nearly 3%, it’s among the lowest in the world.
But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn’t have, a robust system for recording deaths – in his view, the government is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indians are venturing out again but it’s unclear how many of them are asymptomatic.
And, he says, “what we must aim for is flattening the mortality curve, not necessarily the epidemic curve”.
Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the “government realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns”.
A shift in strategy
So is the government gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?
While Dr Menon believes the lockdown was well-timed, he says it was too focused on cases coming from abroad.
“There was a hope that by controlling that, we could prevent epidemic spread, but how effective was our screening [at airports]?”
Now, he adds, is the time for “localised lockdowns”.
Media caption Coronavirus: Death and despair for migrants on Indian roads
The federal government has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the virus’ progression varies wildly across India.
Maharashtra alone accounts for more than a third of India’s active cases. Add Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi, and that makes up 67% of the national total.
But other states – such as Bihar – are already seeing a sharp uptick as migrant workers return home.
“Initially, most of your cases were in the cities,” Dr Devadasan says. “But we kept the migrant workers in cities and didn’t allow them to go home. Now, we are sending them back. We have facilitated transporting the virus from urban areas to rural areas.”
While the government has said how many infections have been avoided – up to 300,000 – and lives saved – up to 71,000 – by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.
There is only advice: The day the government began to ease restrictions, Mr Kejriwal tweeted, urging people to “follow discipline and control the coronavirus disease” as it was their “responsibility”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Social distancing will prove to be India’s biggest post-lockdown challenge
Because the alternative – of curfews and constant policing – is unsustainable.
“My worry is more the circumstances of people – it’s not as though they have an option to practise social distancing,” Dr Menon says.
And they don’t – not in joint family homes or one-room hovels packed together in slums, not in crowded markets or busy streets where jostling is second nature, or in temples, mosques, weddings or religious processions where more is always merrier.
The overwhelming message is that the virus is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it – and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.
Li held a press conference to mark the end of the parliamentary session. This is the South China Morning Post’s live coverage.
Reporting by Wendy Wu, Gary Cheung, Frank Tang, Mai Jun, Sarah Zheng, Kinling Lo, Linda Lew, Coco Feng, Liu Zhen, Laura Zhou, Echo Xie, Keegan Elmer, Catherine Wong, Zhuang Pinghui, Tony Cheung
6:05PM
The End
Li’s key points
The main points from Li’s press conference:
The central government will stick to the principle of “one country, two systems”, and “Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong” with a high degree of autonomy. The NPC’s resolution for a
. But he said at the press conference that “peaceful reunification” was still Beijing’s policy and the mainland was open to further exchanges with Taiwan.
Even though the central government did not set a GDP growth target, China will implement
On the difficult and unpredictable external factors faced by China, Li said the pandemic had hit the world severely, greatly reducing exchanges between countries.
If conditions persisted, there would be more dangers to the global economy, which could undermine efforts to contain the coronavirus.
Combating the virus required an open economy to ensure the supply of goods for public health, he said.
He said China would to continue to open up and maintain the stability of the supply chain.
5:46PM
Rise in pensions
Li said that given the tough economic times, Beijing would expand coverage of subsistence allowances and unemployment benefits as well as increase pensions for the elderly.
“There can be no loopholes – if there are any gaps, then this will make people feel there is no hope for the future,” he said. “As the saying goes, the people are the foundation of a state and when the foundation is solid, the state enjoys tranquility.”
5:41PM
Ending poverty
Li said that even with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the country was still determined to reach its goal of eliminating poverty by 2020.
He said there were some 5 million people living below the poverty line before the outbreak, and more may have fallen below it since then, making eliminating poverty a “daunting task”.
5:36PM
Questions
So far Li has taken nine questions, of which four were from foreign media, one was from Hong Kong and one from Taiwan.
Li said the central government must work hard to help business flourish, aiming at having 10,000 new enterprises registered each day.
The government must get rid of all unnecessary restrictions on the market, foster fair competition and create tangible wealth, he said.
He said there had been a surge in new kinds of businesses, such as online platforms, during the pandemic, and some of these businesses had seen their revenue grow by two-thirds.
5:20PM
China-US tensions
On escalations in China-US tensions and speculation about a new Cold War, Li acknowledged new challenges between the two countries, but said there was room for bilateral cooperation, including on the economy and technology.
Their relationship could be either mutually beneficial or mutually harmful, he said.
was not good for either country or the world, Li said.
Referring to a phase one trade deal reached in January, Li said the two countries should continue to follow through on the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries.
He said trade and economic cooperation should be based on market forces. There were differences in each other’s systems, and conflicts were inevitable, but the key was how to handle the problems.
We need to mutually respect each other’s core interests and search for areas for cooperation, Li said.
The US had in recent days issued a strategic policy that appeared to signal that Washington had abandoned its engagement policy towards Beijing.
He also spoke of new investment by a hi-tech US company in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, an example he said reflected the importance of business ties and cooperation between the countries.
Li had earlier sent a congratulatory letter to the company, the US conglomerate Honeywell.
5:11PM
Hong Kong and the national security law
Asked whether the NPC’s resolution for a national security law for Hong Kong
meant that Beijing had abandoned the “one country, two systems” model for Hong Kong, Li said the law was to secure the long-term stability of “one country, two systems”.
He said that “one country, two systems” and a high degree of autonomy were long an important part of Beijing’s basic state policy, and had been implemented from the start.
He said the national security law resolution was designed “for the steady implementation of one country, two systems and Hong Kong’s long-term stability and prosperity”.
5:04PM
Growth for jobs
Li said growth would be needed to support job creation, one issue of greatest public concern.
About one-third of recent comments left on the State Council’s website were on employment.
China was committed to helping businesses survive and retain jobs, he said.
University students are expected to graduate and enter the workforce in record numbers this year.
4:59PM
‘No change’ on Taiwan
Li said that Beijing’s cross-strait policy would not change, and that the mainland Chinese government was open to further exchanges with Taiwan to move forward on “peaceful reunification” with the self-ruled island.
He rejected all “Taiwanese independence forces” and external interference in Taiwan.
He said Beijing remained committed to the 1992 consensus – the political understanding that there is only “one China” but that each side has its own understanding of what this means.
Last week, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen officially started her second term, after a landslide election win in January that many saw as an endorsement of her harder stand against Beijing.
Li said Beijing would continue to pay high attention to the island, adding that no Taiwanese died from the coronavirus in mainland China.
4:50PM
Jobs – not infrastructure
Li said the government’s measures to counter the coronavirus would focus on
About 70 per cent of the funds would support people’s income and boost consumption.
Smaller firms would also be targeted for support.
“The central government will live on a tight budget,” Li said.
4:44PM
‘No cover-up allowed’
Li said China had successfully controlled the coronavirus within its borders and Beijing had acted in a transparent and timely manner throughout the pandemic.
“No cover-up will ever be allowed,” he said.
Li said there were two main challenges in the pandemic: controlling the virus outbreak and reopening the economy. International cooperation was important for both.
“We may have to live with Covid-19 for some time to come,” he said.
4:36PM
Coronavirus inquiry
In response to a question about the origins of the coronavirus and calls for an
Li said that getting a clear, scientific understanding of the source of the virus could contribute to global public health.
He also referred to the World Health Assembly’s endorsement of an independent review into the World Health Organisation’s handling of the pandemic and its animal origins.
Li said the virus had no borders and much was still not known about it, adding that the international community needed to work together to keep the virus in check and create a vaccine.
Beijing and Washington have sparred over the origin of the virus, and earlier the Chinese foreign ministry condemned the US and Australia for their calls of an independent investigation into Beijing’s response to the pandemic.
The US has accused Beijing of cover-ups and a lack of transparency, while a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman suggested earlier that the US could be the origin of the virus.
Li said Beijing was open to international cooperation on research and development for a vaccine. Washington has accused China of seeking to steal its vaccine research, a charge that Beijing has strongly rejected.
Economic stability
The cabinet is determined to stabilise the economy, according to Li.
“If there are big changes, we still have policy room, including on the fiscal, financial and social security fronts,” he said.
“We are confident that under the strong leadership of [President] Xi Jinping and with joint efforts across the nation, we will be able to prevail in the difficulties and achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society.”
Chinese businesses still face grim economic reality despite Covid-19 restrictions being lifted
Coronavirus and the economy
Li said the Chinese economy was deeply integrated into the global economy, so China would not be immune from the impact of the coronavirus.
Economic development remained key to solving China’s problems today, Li said.
Li starts his annual press conference by saying that the restrictions imposed for Covid-19 will not affect his communication with the media.
Earlier, Li Zhanshu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, presided over a near-unanimous vote to pass a resolution on a national security law for Hong Kong that would ban separatism, subversion, foreign interference, and terrorism in the city.
The votes were 2,878 in favour, one against, six abstentions, and one who did not press the button to vote.
Critics say the move to enact a national security law will end the “one country, two systems” model in Hong Kong. The United States said on Thursday that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China, a decision that could end the city’s special trading status with the US.
This year all journalists are restricted to the press centre, the first time that the media have not been in the same room as the premier at his annual press conference.
Journalists waiting for the presser can watch a live broadcast of the NPC’s closing ceremony at the press centre’s lounge. But vote count is not shown at the broadcast. Photos: Jun Mai
All journalists attending the conference were tested for the coronavirus at 6am today and had to wait for the results at the Diaoyutai Hotel.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has more than 150,000 reported infections
On the face of it, things may not look bad.
Since the first case of coronavirus at the end of January, India has reported more than 150,000 Covid-19 infections. More than 4,000 people have died of the infection.
To put this in some context, as of 22 May, India’s testing positivity rate was around 4%, the death rate from the infection around 3% and the doubling rate of infection – or the amount of time it takes for the number of coronavirus cases to double – was 13 days. The recovery rate of infected patients was around 40%.
All this is markedly lower than in the countries badly hit by the pandemic.
Like elsewhere in the world, there are hotspots and clusters of infection.
More than 80% of the active cases are in five states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh – and more than 60% of the cases in five cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad, according to official data.
More than half of people who have died of the disease have been aged 60 and older and many have underlying conditions, hewing to the international data about elderly people being more vulnerable to the disease.
The more than two-month-long grinding lockdown, official data suggests, has prevented the loss of between 37,000 and 78,000 lives. A paper published in Harvard Data Science Review appears to support that – it shows an eight-week lockdown can prevent about two million cases and, at a 3% fatality rate, prevent some 60,000 deaths.
“Infection has remained limited to certain areas. This also gives us confidence to open up other areas. It is so far an urban disease,” says VK Paul, who heads the medical emergency management plan on Covid-19.
This is where such claims enter uncertain territory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has conducted some 180,000 tests so far
Infections are rising sharply, up from 536 cases on 25 March when the first phase of the world’s harshest lockdown was imposed. The growth of infections is outpacing growth in testing – tests have doubled since April but cases have leapt fourfold.
Epidemiologists say the increase in reported infections is possibly because of increased testing. India has been testing up to 100,000 samples a day in the past week. Testing criteria has been expanded to include asymptomatic contacts of positive patients.
Yet, India’s testing remains one of the lowest in the world per head of population – 2,198 tests per million people.
The bungled lockdown at the end of March triggered an exodus of millions of informal workers who lost their jobs in the cities and began returning home in droves, first on foot and then by train. Some four million workers have travelled by rail from cities to their villages in more than half a dozen states in the past three weeks.
There is mounting evidence that this has already led to the spread of infection from the cities to the villages. And with the messy easing of the lockdown earlier this month, there are growing fears of infections spreading further in the cities.
Rising infections and a still-low fatality rate possibly points to milder infection in a younger population and a large number of asymptomatic cases. The focus, says Amitabh Kant, CEO of the government think-tank NITI Aayog, should be “bringing down fatalities and improving the recovery rate”.
But if the infection rate continues to grow, “things are going to get pretty grim in a few weeks time,” a leading virologist told me.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions of workers have fled the cities and returned to their villages after the lockdown
Doctors in the capital, Delhi, and the western city of Mumbai tell me they are already seeing a steady surge in Covid-19 admissions and worry about a looming shortage of hospital beds, including in critical care.
When the infection peaks in July, as is expected, a spike in infections could easily lead to many avoidable deaths as hospitals run out of beds for, or delay treatment to, infected patients who need timely oxygen support and clinical care to recover.
“That is the real worry. A critical-care bed needs an oxygen line, a ventilator, doctors, nursing staff. Everything will be under pressure,” Dr Ravi Dosi, who is heading a Covid-19 ward at a hospital in Indore, told me. His 50-bed ICU is already full of patients battling the infection.
With the lockdown easing, doctors are feeling jittery. “It’s a tactical nightmare because some people have begun going to work but there is a lot of fear”, says Dr Dosi.
“One co-worker sneezed in the office and 10-15 of his colleagues panicked and came to the hospital and demanded they get tested. These are the pressures that are building up.”
One reason for the confusion is the lack of – or the opacity of – adequate data on the pandemic to help frame a strategic and granular response.
Most experts say a one-size-fits-all strategy to contain the pandemic and impose and lift lockdowns will not work in India where different states will see infection peaks at different times. The reported infection rate – the number of infections for every 100 tests – in Maharashtra state, for example, is three times the national average.
“The infection is not spreading uniformly. India will see staggered waves,” a leading virologist, who insisted on anonymity, told me.
The lack of data means questions abound.
What about some 3,000 cases, which are not being assigned to any state because these people were found infected in places where they don’t live? (To put this into context, nine states in India have more than 3,000 cases.) How many of these cases have died or recovered?
Also, it is not clear whether the current data – sparse, and sporadic – is sufficient to map the future trajectory of the disease.
There is, for example, no robust estimate of carriers of the virus who have no symptoms – last month a senior government scientist said at least “80 out of every 100 Covid-19 patients may be asymptomatic or could be showing mild symptoms”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than 4,000 people have died of Covid-19 in India
If that is indeed true, then India’s fatality rate is bound to be lower. Atanu Biswas, a professor of statistics, says the predicted trajectory could change “with the huge inclusion of asymptomatic cases”. But, in the absence of data, India cannot be sure.
Also, epidemiologists say, measures like the doubling time of the infections and the reproduction number or R0 have their limitations. R0, or simply the R value, is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. The new coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.
“These measures are good when we are in the middle of a pandemic, less robust with fewer cases. You do need forecasting models for at least a month’s projection to anticipate healthcare needs. We should always evaluate an aggregate of evidence, not just one measure, but a cascade of measures,” Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told me.
Others say even calculating the number of recorded infections every day is “not always a good indicator of how an infection is spreading”.
A better option would be to look at the number of new tests and new cases every day that would provide a “degree of standardisation”, K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, told me.
Likewise, he believes, a measure of how many Covid-19 deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country’s population – the numbers of deaths per million people – is a better indicator of the fatality rate. Reason: the denominator – the country’s population – remains stable.
In the absence of robust and expansive data, India appears to be struggling to predict the future trajectory of the infection.
It is not clear yet how many deaths are not being reported, although there is no evidence of large scale “hidden deaths”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A Covid-19 isolation ward in India
Epidemiologists say they would like to see clearer data on deaths due to pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses at this time over the past few years to quantify excess deaths and help with accurate reporting of Covid-19 deaths.
They would also like to see what racial disparities in infections and deaths there are to help improve containment in specific community areas. (In Louisiana, for example, African Americans accounted for 70% of Covid-19 deaths, while comprising 33% of the population.)
What is clear, say epidemiologists, is that India is as yet unable to get a grip on the extent of the spread of infection because of the still limited testing.
“We need reliable forecasting models with projection for the next few weeks for the country and the states,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Epidemiologists say India needs more testing and contact-tracing for both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, as well as isolation and quarantine.
There’s also the need to test based on the “contact network” to stop super-spreader events – frontline workers, delivery workers, essential workers, practically anybody who interacts with a large group of people.
“We have to learn how to manage and minimise risk in our daily lives as the virus is going to be with us,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Without knowing the true number of infected cases India is, in the words of an epidemiologist, “flying blindfolded”.
That can seriously jeopardise India’s fight against the virus and hobble its response in reviving the broken economy.
LONDON (Reuters) – The United Kingdom’s COVID-19 death toll surpassed 47,000 on Tuesday, a dire human cost that could define the premiership of Boris Johnson.
The Office for National Statistics said 42,173 people had died in England and Wales with suspected COVID-19 as of May 15, bringing the UK total to 47,343 – which includes earlier data from Scotland, Northern Ireland, plus recent hospital deaths in England.
A death toll of nearly 50,000 underlined Britain’s status as one of the worst-hit countries in a pandemic that has killed at least 345,400 worldwide.
Johnson, already under fire for his handling of the pandemic, has had to defend his top adviser Dominic Cummings who drove 250 miles from London to access childcare when Britons were being told to stay at home to fight COVID-19.
One Johnson’s junior ministers, Douglas Ross, resigned on Tuesday in protest. Johnson has stood by Cummings, saying the aide had followed the “instincts of every father”.
The government says that while it may have made some mistakes it is grappling with the biggest public health crisis since the 1918 influenza outbreak and that it has ensured the health service was not overwhelmed.
Unlike the daily death toll published by the government, Tuesday’s figures include suspected cases and confirmed cases of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
But even these figures underestimate the true number of deaths.
In March, Britain’s chief scientific adviser said keeping deaths below 20,000 would be a “good outcome”. In April, Reuters reported the government’s worst-case scenario was 50,000 deaths.
Disease experts are watching the total number of deaths that exceed the usual for amount for the time of year, an approach that is internationally comparable.
The early signs suggest Britain is faring badly here too.
Excess deaths are now approaching 60,000 across the UK, ONS statistician Nick Stripe said, citing the latest data – a toll equivalent to the populations of historic cities like Canterbury and Hereford.
There has been strong demand for air freight services since April, when Chinese factories got back to work
Cargo flights have become critical in moving protective health equipment across the globe
Planes of German air carrier Lufthansa at the country’s largest airport in Frankfurt. Photo: Reuters
German freight carrier Lufthansa Cargo is expanding in China, surpassing 100 weekly flights for the first time, and adding new flights to Shenzhen.
Peter Gerber, CEO of Europe’s largest cargo airline, said there had been heavy demand for its services, though this might cool by the peak of summer.
“At the moment, cargo demand is very, very strong,” he told the Post. “It started to get strong in April, when Chinese industries got back to work, and after that we have seen a constant, heavy demand, a real peak.”
Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon report combined HK$4.5 billion loss for start of 2020
15 May 2020
Global air freight capacity has been squeezed as two-thirds of the world’s aircraft have been grounded by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The collapse of air travel has practically put a stop to passenger flights, which typically carry half of all air cargo.
Since the pandemic, cargo flights have been critical in moving protective health equipment across the globe. From sending masks and other supplies to China in February, the German carrier is now taking urgent supplies from the mainland back to Europe.
Peter Gerber says Lufthansa Cargo has a high responsibility in maintaining supply chains, for both global health and world trade. Photo: Handout
“We have a high responsibility in maintaining supply chains in these unprecedented times for both global health and world trade,” Gerber said.
With the addition of Shenzhen, Lufthansa Cargo will fly to five destinations in China. It serves more than 300 destinations in 100 countries.
The cargo carrier is part of the Lufthansa Group and coordinates all the freight that goes into the passenger planes of its sibling brands, including Lufthansa, Swiss and Austrian.
Coronavirus: South Africa asks Hong Kong to remove its citizens from government quarantine list
16 May 2020
By next week, Lufthansa Cargo will be running more freight flights to China than the 72 passenger flights the group flew weekly before the pandemic to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Nanjing and Qingdao.
Lufthansa Cargo has a fleet of seven Boeing 777 Freighters (777Fs), with two new 777Fs arriving this year as part of its strategy to operate a fleet with a single aircraft type.
It also has six McDonnell Douglas-11Fs that Gerber said would still be retired as planned at the end of 2020, despite the extra demand for cargo capacity.
Its additional flights to China will make use of “preighters” – passenger aircraft flying cargo only. Gerber felt the trend of using empty passenger planes as “preighters” had peaked, pointing out that they cost the same to operate as freighters but carry only a fraction of the cargo.
Although he did not rule out future expansion, he said: “Demand will gradually come down in the next two or three months because a lot of equipment would have been shipped by then and some shipments will go on rail or ocean shipping.”
Coronavirus: Cathay Pacific could get cash injection from shareholder Qatar Airways
13 May 2020
He said some uncertainty remained over continued demand for airfreighted cargo, given the battered state of the world economy. Airlines would have to consider longer-term demand before deciding to invest more in cargo aircraft. “It depends how it looks beyond the next year,” he said.
Gerber said no decision had been taken yet on whether to convert some of the group’s orders for Boeing’s newest widebody 777X passenger aircraft into cargo planes.
He added that future plane orders would be balanced against the wider needs and spending decisions at Lufthansa Group, which is currently negotiating a government pandemic bailout package in the region of €9 billion (US$9.7 billion).
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a further deterioration of his relationship with China over the coronavirus outbreak, saying he has no interest in speaking to President Xi Jinping right now and going so far as to suggest he could even cut ties with the world’s second largest economy.
In an interview with Fox Business Network broadcast on Thursday, Trump said he was very disappointed with China’s failure to contain the disease and that the pandemic had cast a pall over his January trade deal with Beijing, which he has previously hailed as a major achievement.
“They should have never let this happen,” Trump said. “So I make a great trade deal and now I say this doesn’t feel the same to me. The ink was barely dry and the plague came over. And it doesn’t feel the same to me.”
Trump’s pique extended to Xi, with whom the U.S. president has said repeatedly he has a good relationship.
“But I just – right now I don’t want to speak to him,” Trump said in the interview, which was taped on Wednesday.
Trump was asked about a Republican senator’s suggestion that U.S. visas be denied to Chinese students applying to study in fields related to national security, such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
RELATED COVERAGE
U.S. says it condemns China-linked ‘cyber actors’ trying to steal COVID research
“There are many things we could do. We could do things. We could cut off the whole relationship,” he replied.
“Now, if you did, what would happen? You’d save $500 billion,” Trump said, referring to estimated U.S. annual imports from China, which he often refers to as lost money.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters in Beijing on Friday that maintaining a steady bilateral relationship served the interests of both peoples and would be beneficial for world peace and stability.
“Both China and the U.S. should now be cooperating more on fighting the virus together, to cure patients and resume economic production, but this requires the U.S. to want to work with us on this,” Zhao said.
Trump’s remarks drew ridicule from Hu Xijin, editor in chief of China’s influential Global Times tabloid, who referred to the president’s much-criticized comments last month about how COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, might be treated.
“This president once suggested COVID-19 patients inject disinfectants,” Hu said on Twitter. “Remember this and you won’t be surprised when he said he could cut off the whole relationship with China.”
CONCERNED, REVIEWING OPTIONS
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business Network China needed to provide a lot more information about the coronavirus and Trump was reviewing his options.
“The president is concerned. He’s reviewing all his options. Obviously, we’re very concerned about the impact of this virus on the economy, on American jobs, the health of the American public and the president is going to do everything to protect the economy and protect American workers,” Mnuchin said.
“It’s a difficult and complex matter and the president has made very clear, he wants more information. They didn’t let us in, they didn’t let us understand what was going on.”
Trump and his Republican backers have accused Beijing of failing to alert the world to the severity and scope of the coronavirus outbreak and of withholding data about the earliest cases. The pandemic has sparked a sharp global recession and threatened Trump’s November re-election chances.
The United States has been hardest hit by the pandemic, according to official data.
China insists it has been transparent, and, amid increasingly bitter exchanges, both sides have questioned the future of the trade deal.
Opponents of Trump have said that while China has much to answer for over the outbreak, he appears to be seeking to deflect attention from criticism over his response to the crisis.
Scott Kennedy of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank called Trump’s remarks “dangerous bravado.”
“Avoiding communication is not an effective strategy for solving a crisis that requires global cooperation. And cutting off the economic relationship would badly damage the American economy,” he said.
Michael Pillsbury, a China analyst who has worked as an outside adviser to Trump, told Reuters he believed the president was concerned that China not only wanted to re-negotiate the Phase 1 deal, but also had not been meeting goals in purchasing from United States.
He said that according to figures cited by the China Daily, China’s purchases of U.S. products in the first four months of this year were 3% less than during the same period last year.
“It’s not good news for reducing the trade deficit or helping our economy recover from the coronavirus crisis,” he said.
China took some additional steps towards the Phase 1 goals on Thursday, buying U.S. soybean oil for the first time in nearly two years and issued customs notices allowing imports of U.S. barley and blueberries.
An executive from Chinese state agriculture trading house COFCO said China was set to speed up purchases of U.S. farm goods to implement the Phase 1 deal.
While U.S. intelligence agencies have said the coronavirus does not appear manmade or genetically modified, Trump said in his interview that China should have stopped it at its source.
“Whether it came from the lab or came from the bats, it all came from China, and they should have stopped it,” he said.
India’s CO2 emissions have fallen for the first time in four decades – and not just as a result of the country’s coronavirus lockdown.
Falling electricity use and competition from renewables had weakened the demand for fossil fuels even before the coronavirus hit, according to analysis by the environmental website, Carbon Brief. However, it was the sudden nationwide lockdown in March that finally tipped the country’s 37-year emissions growth trend into reverse.
The study finds that Indian carbon dioxide emissions fell 15% in March, and are likely to have fallen by 30% in April.
Virtually all of the drop-off in power demand has been borne by coal-fired generators, which explains why the emissions reductions have been so dramatic.
Coal-fired power generation was down 15% in March and 31% in the first three weeks of April, according to daily data from the Indian national grid.
But even before India’s sudden coronavirus lockdown, the demand for coal was weakening.
The study finds that in the fiscal year ending March 2020, coal deliveries were down by around 2%, a small but significant reduction when set against the trend – an increase in thermal power generation of 7.5% a year set over the previous decade.
Indian oil consumption shows a similar reduction in demand growth.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The nationwide lockdown finally tipped a 37-year emissions growth trend into reverse
It has been slowing since early 2019.
And, once again, the trend has been compounded by the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown measures on the transport industry.
Oil consumption was down 18% year-on-year in March 2020.
Meanwhile, the supply of energy from renewables has increased over the year and has held up since the pandemic struck.
This resilience the renewables energy sector shows in the face of the sudden reduction in demand caused by coronavirus is not confined to India.
Media caption Delhi smog disappears during India’s lockdown
According to figures published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the end of April, the world’s use of coal was down 8% in the first quarter of the year.
By contrast, wind and solar power saw a slight uptick in demand internationally.
A key reason that coal has taken the brunt of the fall in electricity demand is that it cost more to run on a day-to-day basis.
Once you have installed a solar panel or a wind turbine, operating costs are very low and, therefore, tend to get priority on electricity grids.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s use of coal has plummeted, in line with that of other countries
Thermal power stations – those powered by coal, gas or oil – by contrast, require you to buy fuel in order to generate power.
But analysts warn that the decline in fossil fuel use may not last.
They say when the pandemic subsides, there is a risk that emissions will soar again as countries attempt to kick-start their economies.
The US has already started to relax environmental regulations and the fear is other nations could follow suit.
However, the analysis from Carbon Brief suggests there are reasons to think India could buck this trend.
The coronavirus crisis has brought the long-brewing financial troubles in the Indian coal sector to a head, and the Indian government is finalising a relief package which could top 900bn rupees ($12bn; £9.6bn).
But, at the same time, the government is talking about supporting renewable energy as part of the recovery.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Renewables have the economic edge in India, offering far cheaper electricity than coal
Renewables have the economic edge in India, offering far cheaper electricity than coal.
The report claims that new solar capacity can cost as little 2.55 rupees per kilowatt hour, while the average cost for electricity generated from coal is 3.38 rupees per hour.
Investing in renewables is also consistent with the country’s National Clean Air Programme, launched in 2019.
Environmentalists hope the clean air and clear skies Indians have enjoyed since lockdown will increase public pressure on the government to clean up the power sector and improve air quality.
Sales in April hit 2.07 million units in the world’s biggest car market, up 4.4 per cent from a year earlier, according to the country’s largest industry association
The number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) sold fell for a tenth straight month to
The global industry has been hit hard by the health crisis, but there is growing optimism of improvement in business in China as the country has largely contained the outbreak and started easing lockdown measures. Photo: AFP
China’s monthly car sales rose for the first time in almost two years in April, industry data showed, as more customers visited showrooms after the economy began to open up and authorities loosened coronavirus-related travel restrictions.
Sales in April hit 2.07 million units in the world’s biggest car market, up 4.4 per cent from a year earlier, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the country’s largest industry association.
as the pandemic pummelled demand. Monthly sales in China last rose in June 2018.
The number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) sold fell for a tenth straight month to 72,000 units, the data showed. NEVs include battery-powered electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
The global industry has been hit hard by the health crisis, but there is growing optimism of improvement in business in China as the country has largely contained the outbreak and started easing lockdown measures.
Volkswagen reported positive China sales in April, while General Motors’ China ventures saw double-digit year-on-year growth last month.
The United States suffered the most from the pandemic, with 1,305,199 cases and a death toll of 78,469.
NEW YORK, May 9 (Xinhua) — Global confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 4 million on Saturday, reaching 4,004,224 as of 4:32 p.m. (2032 GMT), according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.
According to the CSSE, a total of 277,860 people worldwide have died of the disease.
Police officers walk past closed retail stores along Broadway in New York, the United States, on May 8, 2020. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua)
The United States suffered the most from the pandemic, with 1,305,199 cases and a death toll of 78,469. Countries with over 150,000 cases included Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom, Russia, France and Germany, according to the CSSE data.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 