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Fears are growing in the city that the military could be called in to quell unrest
But the costs and complexities of doing so mean Beijing is highly unlikely to give the orders, observers say
PLA soldiers show their skills during a naval base open day in Hong Kong. The PLA has had a presence in Hong Kong since the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty. Photo: K.Y. Cheng
It is a prospect dreaded by many in Hong Kong, but debate is growing in mainland China about whether the central government should end weeks of upheaval in the city by sending in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The PLA has had a presence in Hong Kong since the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty but – unlike in mainland China – memories of the military’s bloody suppression of pro-democracy students and activists in Beijing in 1989 are still strong in the city three decades on.
Still, images of protesters vandalising Beijing’s liaison office in downtown Hong Kong on Sunday have fanned nationalist anger across the mainland, prompting calls for PLA intervention.
Concerns only deepened on Wednesday when defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian commented on the recent clashes and protests in Hong Kong. Without suggesting any action or plans by the PLA, Wu made clear that the Garrison Law, which governs the operations of PLA troops in Hong Kong, already stipulates that the PLA is legally allowed to help the city maintain law and order at the request of Hong Kong’s government.
“We are closely following the developments in Hong Kong, especially the violent attack against the central government’s liaison office by radicals on July 21,” Wu said.
“Some behaviour of the radical protesters is challenging the authority of the central government and the bottom line of ‘one country, two systems’,” he warned, referring to the formula that grants Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy for 50 years. “This is intolerable.”
Both Article 14 and Article 18 of the Basic Law – the city’s mini-constitution – spell out how and under what circumstances the PLA troops in Hong Kong can be used.
While the legality is clear, analysts still believe that given the exorbitant political cost and complexities involved, using the military would remain an unlikely last resort.
Even Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, has spoken out against the idea, citing its “huge political cost” and the “severe uncertainty” it might bring to the situation.
Crowds hold candles at a vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong in June to mark the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Photo: James Wendlinger
“Once the PLA has taken charge of the situation in Hong Kong and quelled the riots, what’s next?” Hu said in a social media post on Monday.
Hu said there were no governance procedures in place that would allow the PLA to operate in Hong Kong and return things to normal. He also warned that any such action would be followed by international condemnation and a severe backlash among the Hong Kong public.
“The [PLA’s] Hong Kong garrison is the symbol of national sovereignty. It is not a fire brigade for law and order in Hong Kong,” he said.
Any move to use the Chinese troops will create a furore in the US Congress … They will re-examine the Hong Kong Policy Act very carefully Larry Wortzel, senior fellow at American Foreign Policy Council
The South China Morning Post reported last week that military force was not an option for mainland leaders working on a strategy to resolve the city’s biggest political crisis in decades.
And in June Major General Chen Daoxiang, commander of the Hong Kong garrison, assured David Helvey, US principal deputy assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs, that Chinese troops would not interfere in the city’s affairs, according to Reuters.
The comments support analysts’ assessments that deploying the PLA is not a viable solution to Hong Kong’s crisis.
“Will the mobilisation of PLA troops further inflame the situation? There might be people who will resist or even revolt against the PLA, and that may lead to bloodshed,” said Lau Siu-kai, vice-chairman of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, a semi-official think tank.
The last time Beijing sent in troops to quell pro-democracy protests was during the Tiananmen Square crackdown on June 4, 1989 – bloodshed that has stained the PLA and the Communist Party to this day, despite decades of efforts to wipe it from public memory.
The last time Beijing sent in troops to quell pro-democracy protests was during the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. Photo: Reuters
“Although they don’t like to admit it, they know they made a mistake in the way they used the PLA [in 1989],” said Larry Wortzel, a long-time PLA watcher, who witnessed the crackdown as an assistant military attache at the US embassy in Beijing 30 years ago.
“In subsequent years, when there were major demonstrations, they managed to handle them with either the People’s Armed Police [PAP] or the Public Security Bureau [PSB], or in some cases a combination of both,” said Wortzel, now a senior fellow in Asian security at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington.
If the military was deployed [in Hong Kong], it would mean China was ready to shut its doors completely Chen Daoyin, a Shanghai-based political analyst
The PAP is a 1.5 million-strong paramilitary police force tasked with maintaining domestic security and order, while the PSB is the country’s police force.
The June 4 crackdown is still widely remembered in Hong Kong, where tens of thousands gather every year on its anniversary for a candlelight vigil in the heart of the city.
“The activities in Hong Kong and the Chinese Communist Party’s conduct there have really had a profound impact on thinking in Taiwan. It has killed any chance with any political party of [supporting] the one country, two systems,” Wortzel said.
Chinese military can be deployed at Hong Kong’s request to contain protests, Beijing says
“The last thing President Xi Jinping and the Politburo Standing Committee would want to do, if they can avoid it, is to use the PLA [in Hong Kong].”
The situation in Hong Kong is also being closely watched in the West, with many international firms basing regional headquarters in the Asian financial hub, thanks to its capitalist system and rule of law.
Deploying the PLA to Hong Kong would certainly spark an international outcry and draw huge pressure from Western countries, said Liang Yunxiang, an international affairs expert at Peking University.
“Britain, of course, would have the harshest criticism since it governed Hong Kong for a long time and signed treaties with China to ensure Beijing would keep its commitment to one country, two systems,” Liang said.
In the United States, the repercussions could go beyond verbal condemnation to a shift in policy that might fundamentally change Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre and prompt an exodus of businesses, according to Wortzel.
“Any move to use the Chinese troops will create a furore in the US Congress … They will re-examine the Hong Kong Policy Act very carefully,” he said, referring to the bill passed in 1992 that allows Hong Kong to be treated as a non-sovereign entity distinct from mainland China on trade and economic matters.
Hong Kong head blasts violence, amid further extradition bill unrest
“They will simply treat Hong Kong like another Chinese city, which affects export controls and how the financial industry operates.”
Just last month, members of Congress reintroduced the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. If the legislation is passed, the US could revoke Hong Kong’s special status under American law if Beijing fails to ensure the city has “sufficient autonomy”.
The crisis comes as Beijing’s ties with Washington are already strained by a year-long trade war that has spilled into other areas of bilateral relations.
PLA troops go through their paces for the public at their Hong Kong barracks during an open day. Photo: Edward Wong
There is also mounting international pressure on China over issues such as its mass internment and political indoctrination of an estimated million or more members of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, despite the Chinese government’s repeated denials of ill-treatment of the inmates and attempts to defend its policies.
Chen Daoyin, a Shanghai-based political analyst, said the increasing scrutiny China faced from Western countries – whether in the form of punitive tariffs or restrictions on technology – made it all the more important for China to keep Hong Kong as an open channel to connect with the world.
“If the military was deployed [in Hong Kong], it would mean China was ready to shut its doors completely,” Chen said.
Lau, from the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said the PLA should only be deployed as a last resort.
Two calls per second ‘jammed emergency lines’ during Hong Kong violence
“It would be a huge blow to the principle of ‘letting Hong Kong people govern Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy’, since it will prove that Hong Kong people are not up to the task of governing themselves,” he said.
Hu, from Global Times, said the PLA troops could be used only if the authorities lost control of the city or an armed rebellion broke out.
Short of that, he said, the central government should let the chaos in Hong Kong run its course and wait for the public mood to flip.
This strategy of sitting it out hinges on the city’s police force holding the line and stopping Hong Kong’s slide into total anarchy.
Wortzel also warned that there were lines protesters should not cross – or risk provoking the use of military force.
“For instance, to this point, demonstrators have not gone up against the PLA garrison or any of its outposts. If they did that, I think it’s possible – actually it is very likely – that there will be a limited mobilised response [to defend the facilities],” he said.
While most analysts said the chance of Beijing resorting to military force was slim, the very idea – ludicrous to even discuss three months ago – has become a popular topic on social media on the mainland, where the discussion is not censored and many commenters support it.
The official media have been careful not to touch the subject but they too have stepped up rhetoric against the protests in Hong Kong.
In a rare move, state-run China Central Television has run commentaries and reports about protests in Hong Kong during its main evening news for five days in a row.
Only the most politically important issues receive such unusual treatment.
Maritime authorities close off area of Yellow Sea near vessel’s home port of Dalian for naval training exercise
Analysts say trials have been faster and more efficient than those carried out by its sister ship the Liaoning
The carrier leaves the port of Dalian for a sea trial in December. Photo: Reuters
China’s first home-grown aircraft carrier the Type 001A is expected to start a four-day sea trial on Thursday, which military experts said signalled that it would soon be ready for official commissioning.
Liaoning Maritime Safety Administration issued a statement on its website on Wednesday saying a naval exercise would take place in a designated zone in the north of the Yellow Sea between Thursday and Monday, and warned other vessels not to enter the area.
The statement gave little detail about the exercise, but military experts said the location of the drill – near the carrier’s home port of Dalian – pointed to new sea trials for the ship.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator for Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television, said it would be the seventh such trial for the carrier, adding: “It is likely that the carrier will join the navy for trial runs in the coming months.”
Song said that sea trials for the Type 001A had been faster and more efficient compared with those for its sister ship, the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier.
The Liaoning started life as a Soviet Kuznetsov-class vessel, and was still incomplete when China bought it from Ukraine in 1998. It underwent 10 sea trials before being commissioned in 2012.
“China has accumulated more experience with the Liaoning and that has helped in the construction and operation of Type 001A,” Song said.
North Korea fires two ballistic missiles in latest ‘warning’ to South
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said the upcoming sea trial for the Type 001A would be led by naval officers instead of the engineers and technicians from the Dalian Shipyard, which built the warship.
“Besides testing the carrier’s propulsion system and electronic communication systems, the sea trial will focus on inspection and acceptance. Both are critical parts of the testing before the ship can be handed over to the navy,” he said.
The trials will be held near the ship’s home port of Dalian. Graphic: SCMP
The 65,000-tonne Type 001A was built using the Liaoning as a prototype. It was launched in 2017 and conducted its latest sea trial in May. When it returned to Dalian on May 31 after the test it was seen to have J-15 fighter jets and Z-18 helicopters on its deck.
Li said aircraft take-off and landing exercises would be conducted on the high seas after the Type 001A formally entered service.
Both he and Song said the carrier was likely to be named after Shandong province, in line with the practice of giving warships geographical names.
Some naval enthusiasts and China watchers were disappointed when the Type 001 failed to appear at a grand naval parade held off the coast of Shandong in April to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the PLA Navy.
Chinese navy tests new Z-20 helicopter for use on its warships
Armed F-16 fighter jets simulate attack followed by medium and long-range missile launches into eastern waters
People’s Liberation Army launched two large-scale drills close to Taiwan Strait on Sunday
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Taiwan has launched a military exercise including F-16 fighter jets in response to Beijing’s war games, which began on Sunday. Photo: AFP
Taiwan responded to Beijing’s military drill targeting the self-ruled island by deploying its most advanced fighter jets and firing 117 medium and long-range missiles on Monday and Tuesday.
Defence ministry spokesman Lee Chao-ming said the missiles were fired from the Jiupeng military base to waters off eastern Taiwan, with a range of 250km (155 miles), in an exercise covering five types of training for the island’s forces.
On Monday, Taiwan’s air force also dispatched two F-16 fighter jets armed with AGM-84 Harpoon missiles in a simulation of an attack off the island’s southeast coast.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator based in Hong Kong, said the Taiwan drill was aimed at the mainland Chinese exercise which began on Sunday. The location of the Taiwan drill meant its missiles’ electronic data could avoid detection by the People’s Liberation Army’s radar, he said.
Chinese military starts Taiwan Strait drills amid rising tension
“Taiwan is focusing on boosting self-defence, and building up a comprehensive air and sea defence network to counter military threats from the mainland,” Song said.
“The test firing of missiles is to boost the island’s self-defence capability. The military drill of the PLA has triggered a lot of concerns in Taiwan, and Taiwan is responding to it also through a strong military means.”
The PLA launched two large-scale military drills close to the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, after a notice issued by the Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration prohibited ships from entering the waters off the coast of the eastern province between 6pm on Saturday and 6pm on Thursday.
The Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration said another set of military exercises would be held in the waters off Fujian province between Monday morning and Friday evening.
Observers said they expected PLA forces from the Southern and Eastern commands – whose area of responsibility includes Zhejiang and Fujian, which lie across the strait from Taiwan – to take part in the exercises.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said on Monday that six Chinese warships had passed through the Miyako Strait – a waterway lying between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island – presumably in preparation for the drills.
Japanese military vessels said a Chinese class-three missile destroyer – a type 054A missile frigate – was sailing 240km north of Miyako Island on Saturday.
On Thursday, Japanese ships reported China’s type 052D destroyer Xining, type 054A missile frigate Daging, the guided missile frigate Rizhao, and the ocean comprehensive supply ship Hulun Lake, all entered the Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait.
This is China’s first war game to involve simultaneous exercises at two locations in waters near Taiwan since the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, during which the PLA conducted a series of large-scale live-fire exercises in response to then-Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States, and ahead of the Taiwanese presidential election.
Huang has been detained since being arrested nearly three years ago.
He has already served previous prison sentences related to his journalism.
The statement, from Mianyang Intermediate People’s Court, added Mr Huang would be deprived of his political rights for four years and had also been fined 20,000 yuan ($2,900; £2,360).
Huang has kidney and heart disease and high blood pressure. And supporters have voiced concern about the consequences of the 56-year-old remaining imprisoned.
“This decision is equivalent to a death sentence, considering Huang Qi’s health has already deteriorated from a decade spent in harsh confinement,” said Christophe Deloire, the secretary-general of Reporters Without Borders.
The press-freedom campaign group has previously awarded Huang its Cyberfreedom Prize. It has now called on President Xi Jinping to “show mercy” and issue a pardon.
Amnesty International has called the sentence “harsh and unjust”.
“The authorities are using his case to scare other human rights defenders who do similar work exposing abuses, especially those using online platforms,” said the group’s China researcher Patrick Poon.
Repeated arrests
Huang created his website in 1998 to help people search for friends and family who had disappeared. But over time it began covering allegations of corruption, police brutality and other abuses.
He was subsequently sentenced to a further three years in prison, in 2009, after giving advice to the families of children who had died in an earthquake in Sichuan the previous year.
The relatives had wanted to sue the local authorities over claims that school buildings had been shoddily built – a claim the central government denied.
Huang was detained again, in 2014, after 64 Tianwang covered the case of a woman who had tried to set herself on fire in Tiananmen Square to coincide with the start of that year’s National People’s Congress.
Then he was arrested in November 2016 and accused of “inciting subversion of state power”, since when he has been incarcerated.
Since then, several human rights organisations, including Freedom House and the China Human Rights Lawyers Concern Group, have called for his release and raised concerns about reported threats to his 85-year-old mother, who had been campaigning on his behalf.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Huang’s mother, Pu Wenqing, had travelled to Beijing to plead her son’s case
But a selfie with a sapling does not guarantee one of the much sought after licences. It merely means the application will be “considered” for processing.
The order was issued on 5 June to coincide with world environment day, but has only now picked up traction in local media as more people have started complying.
Mr Gaind says they have received at least 100 applications – along with selfies – since the order was passed.
But simply planting saplings and taking selfies with them is not enough – applicants also have to submit follow-up selfies a month later, proving that they are nurturing the plants.
Hanoi says it has sent several messages to Beijing that a Chinese survey ship vacate the waters located in its exclusive economic zone
‘Vietnam resolutely and persistently protects our sovereign rights … by peaceful means on the basis of international laws,’ a foreign ministry spokesperson said
Vietnamese foreign ministry spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang. Photo: Reuters
Vietnam on Thursday called for the “immediate withdrawal” of a Chinese ship in the
, as the stand-off over the disputed waters intensified.
Beijing last week issued a new call for Hanoi to respect its claims to the resource-rich region – which has historically been contested by Vietnam, as well as Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.
Hanoi responded by saying it had sent several messages to Beijing insisting that a Chinese survey ship vacate its waters, and doubled down on Thursday with new demands for the vessel’s removal.
“Vietnam has had several appropriate diplomatic exchanges … requesting immediate withdrawal from Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone,” a foreign ministry spokesperson told reporters, while refusing to disclose the ship’s precise location.
“Vietnam resolutely and persistently protects our sovereign rights … by peaceful means on the basis of international laws,” Le Thi Thu Hang added.
The ship, owned by the government-run China Geological Survey, begun research around the contested Spratly Islands on July 3, according to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Before it was spotted, a Chinese coastguard vessel also patrolled near Vietnamese supply ships in a “threatening manner”, CSIS said.
China has not confirmed the presence of its ships in the area.
China’s neighbours boost coastguards as tensions rise in South China Sea
Beijing invokes its so-called nine-dash line to justify its claim to historic rights to the waterway, and has previously built up artificial islands as well as installed airstrips and military equipment in the region.
The line runs as far as 2,000km (1,240 miles) from the Chinese mainland to within a few hundred kilometres of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.
In 2014 Beijing moved an oil rig into waters claimed by Hanoi, sparking deadly anti-China protests across Vietnam.
The latest stand-off in the sea prompted a swift rebuke from the United States over the weekend, calling for an end to China’s “bullying behaviour”.
US accuses China of acting like a bully in the South China Sea
“China’s repeated provocative actions aimed at the offshore oil and gas development of other claimant states threaten regional energy security,” the US State Department said Saturday.
GENEVA, July 27 (Xinhua) — Ambassadors from 50 countries to the United Nations Office at Geneva (UNOG) have co-signed a letter to the President of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) and the High Commissioner for Human Rights to voice their support for China’s position on issues related to its Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
Earlier on July 12, a number of ambassadors in Geneva sent the joint letter to show their support for China, and as of Friday evening, more ambassadors had joined, the Chinese Mission to the UNOG revealed.
In a statement issued on Friday night, the Chinese mission said that some other countries had also expressed their support in separate letters or press statements.
In the joint letter, the ambassadors commend China for its economic and social progress, effective counter-terrorism and de-radicalization measures, and strong guarantee of human rights.
They appreciate the opportunities provided by China for diplomatic envoys, officials of international organizations, and media professionals to visit Xinjiang, and point to the contrast between Xinjiang in the eyes of those who have visited it and the one portrayed by some western media.
The ambassadors also urge a certain group of countries to stop using uncorroborated information to make unfounded accusations against China.
“I was surprised that some people call these vocational training and education centers concentration or internment camps,” Vadim Pisarevich, deputy permanent representative of Belarus to the UNOG, told Xinhua.
“They’re nothing of the kind. They look like ordinary educational facilities and even I said that they are more than this because they provide life skills training to the students,” Pisarevich said.
They are “very useful institutions for addressing the problems of terrorism, extremism and separatism,” he said.
“Terrorism and extremism are an intractable challenge across the world. In the face of its grave threat, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region responded with a number of lawful steps, including setting up vocational education and training centers, to prevent and combat terrorism and extremism,” the Chinese Mission to the UNOG said in its statement.
“Facts speak louder than words, and justice cannot be overshadowed. The great diversity of countries co-signing the letter — from Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, especially the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) — makes it clear that the international community has drawn a fair conclusion about Xinjiang’s human rights achievement and counter-terrorism and de-radicalization outcome,” the statement said.
“Those that seek to use human rights as an excuse to slander and pressure China have only themselves to deceive,” it added.
“We oppose any attempt to use human rights issues as a cover for interference in a country’s internal affairs. We urge those who are doing so to change course, refrain from politicization and double standards, and stop interfering in the internal affairs of other countries under the pretext of human rights,” it said.
At a press conference on Friday, China’s Ambassador to the UNOG Chen Xu also rebuked some Western nations for slandering China over Xinjiang, noting that China doesn’t accept these “groundless accusations.”
Jamshed Khamidov, head of Tajikistan’s mission in Geneva, said his government opposes any attempts to use the Human Rights Council for particular political purposes, and efforts should be made to avoid any politicization of the Human Rights Council.
“We know the situation in the Xinjiang region. We know how much the government of China is doing … and what kind of measures were implemented in this region to support its peace, security and development,” he said.
In visits to the vocational training and education centers in Xinjiang’s Urumqi and Kashi, Zenon Mukongo Ngay, head of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mission in Geneva, said he was impressed with the “level of development” in Xinjiang and how the people in the centers receive education for getting a job.
The Chinese mission also said that together with all parties, China is committed to promoting the healthy development of the international human rights cause by encouraging multilateral human rights institutions to stick to the purpose and principles of the UN Charter, handle human rights issues in an objective, impartial and non-selective manner, and engage in constructive dialogues and cooperation.
Aircraft could also be used to counterbalance Japanese and US military activities in the region, analysts say
China’s J-20 stealth fighter has gone into service in the Eastern Theatre Command. Photo: PLA Air Force
China’s J-20 stealth fighter has been officially deployed to the country’s Eastern Theatre Command, suggesting it will be focused on the Taiwan Strait and military activities between Japan and the United States, observers said.
The People’s Liberation Army Air Force posted a photo on its social media account this week showing the fifth-generation fighter tagged with the number 62001, designating the aircraft as part of a frontline unit.
Chinese media reported that the stealth fighter had entered the Eastern Theatre Command, which encompasses Taiwan.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the aircraft appeared to have two missions.
“The unit turning operational in Eastern Theatre Command is precisely aimed at Taiwan,” Koh said.
“And to challenge US military activities in Taiwan Strait, besides posing a threat to the median line that Taiwan’s air force patrols along.”
US Air Force gears up for aggressor drills to simulate combat with China’s J-20 fifth-generation fighters
The photo’s release came as China issued a defence white paper, highlighting the risks from “separatist forces”.
In the document, the military said it faced challenges from pro-independence forces in Taiwan but would always defeat those fighting for the island’s independence. It also said there were risks from separatists in the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang.
A day after the paper was released, an American warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
The J-20 is expected to enter mass production this year. If the aircraft was declared ready to go into active operations, it would signal China was a “greater threat” and had “greater capability” in the Pacific, General Charles Brown, the US Air Force’s Pacific commander, said in May.
Brown said US efforts to counter those developments included increasing deployments of next-generation F-35 jets and continuing overflights of strategic areas such as the South China Sea.
China’s J-20 stealth jet may be ready this year, US commander says
According to the US Defence Intelligence Agency, fielding the J-20 would add to what was already the region’s biggest air force and world’s third-largest.
China had more than 2,500 aircraft, including 1,700 combat fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers and multi-mission tactical and attack aircraft, in service, the agency said in a report earlier this year.
China’s J-20 fighter was part of a modernisation effort that had been “closing the gap with Western air forces across a broad spectrum of capabilities, such as aircraft performance, command and control and electronic warfare”, the report said.
Macau-based military expert Antony Wong Dong said that in addition to Taiwan, the J-20 fighter could also be used to counterbalance military activities by the United States and Japan.
But Wong added that the Chinese military was still exploring how best the fighter could be used.
“It will take a few years for the aircraft to be fully deployed and to mature. Right now, it’s still in the exploration stage,” he said.
Zhang Lin, a Beijing-based independent political economy commentator, questions why returnees are becoming ardent supporters of the government-directed model
China’s economic boom offers returnees far more advantages than Western societies could upon their graduation
The number of Chinese students studying in the US and European schools soared, offering fresh hope that returnees with an overseas educational background would facilitate China’s transformation into a society that resembled the west. Photo: Xinhua
At the turn of the century, many people foresaw a “westernisation” process taking place in China – the development of a market economy and a freer society – especially after China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001 with a clear commitment to reform its state-owned enterprises.
The number of Chinese students studying in the US and European schools soared, offering fresh hope that returnees with an overseas educational background would facilitate China’s transformation into a society that resembled the west.
But it has not turned out as expected, with more and more returnees who graduated from Western universities becoming ardent and vocal supporters of the Chinese government-directed model. It seems strange on the surface that young Chinese people, who have several years’ first-hand experience of Western democracy and freedom, would become big fans of an intrusive state.
One explanation is that the overseas students who worship the Western lifestyle never return to China.
In the 1980s and 1990s, Chinese students who studied abroad did not rely on wealth or family background, but excellent academic achievement, and most of the students who went abroad were funded by China’s Ministry of Education. After experiencing the huge gaps between China and the West at that time in terms of living standards and social development, many chose to stay after graduation.
China’s overseas study policy at that time dictated that these students needed to return back within five years, or else their families could have faced punishment. Despite this, according to statistics from 2002, 92 per cent of Chinese students who obtained doctorate degrees in the United States during the 1990s choose not to return to their homeland.
Things began to change in the late 1990s. China’s private businesses started to boom after Deng Xiaoping’s “southern tour” in 1992, with many government officials and local leaders quitting their public jobs to pursue private wealth, in a trend dubbed “smashing their and jumping into the sea”. Blessed by their connections to the state apparatus, many of them became filthy rich in the process.
These Chinese nouveau riche could suddenly afford foreign university tuition fees and started sending their children to study abroad. The Chinese government also relaxed its policy on overseas education, and most overseas Chinese students became “second generation” rich and powerful.
At the same time, western universities particularly in the US and Britain opened their arms to the flow of Chinese students who were willing to pay hefty tuition fees and sometimes willing to make sizeable donations.
Most of these returnees, whose families have made significant gains from China’s state-led market economy, were beneficiaries of the Chinese model
According to statistics from the “Report on the Survey of Overseas Students” covering the years 2000 to 2011, 1.9 million Chinese students studied abroad, with 91.3 per cent of them “self-funded”. By 2014, the proportion of overseas students who returned to China had risen to 51.4 per cent, according to the “2015 China Returnees Development Report”.
This report also pointed out that 32 per cent of returnees were willing to work for the government.
Most of these returnees, whose families have made significant gains from China’s state-led market economy, were beneficiaries of the Chinese model. The experience of studying abroad, ironically, only enhanced their understanding of their advantages and privileges back home.
China’s economic boom offered far more chances for this well-educated, and well-connected, group than Western societies could, upon their graduation. If they chose to stay in the Western country where they studied, they were faced with the prospect of starting from scratch, but if they chose to go back China, they could get a better job, probably earn more money, inherit the wealth of the previous generation and live as a member of the elite.
That China’s overseas returnees are supporters of the Chinese model indicates that the Western concept of freedom is not always a powerful incentive. If competition between countries is competition between elite groups, conflicts between the Chinese model and the US model may last for several generations and spread to more countries.
Court revokes licence for coal-fired power plant in Kenyan town whose Unesco World Heritage status is at stake
Beijing’s efforts to cut emissions domestically coincide with coal-financing ventures overseas
A proposed coal-fired power plant in Kenya involving four Chinese companies has provoked protests. Photo: Handout
This article is part of a series in which the South China Morning Post examines the local impact of Chinese investment and infrastructure projects in Africa.
There are a few places in the world that have held onto their traditions. One is the island of Lamu, close to Kenya’s northern coast, which is an epicentre of Swahili culture in East Africa and home to its oldest and best-preserved history.
Nowhere combines the culture’s architecture and heritage like Lamu Old Town, where there are two streets, few cars and dozens of mosques and churches. Donkeys and wooden carts are the main modes of transport.
The town is a Unesco World Heritage Site with multibillion-dollar tourism and fishing industries. But it risks losing its global allure after Unesco’s World Heritage Committee warned that a US$2 billion coal-fired power plant planned in the area threatened its heritage site status.
Four Chinese companies are involved in the project. The United States also supported it, with its envoy to Kenya, Kyle McCarter, saying the country needed cheaper power and American energy firm GE promising to inject US$400 million for a 20 per cent stake in Amu Power, the operating company. The Kenyan government has said the plant would enable the country to have a diversified source of electricity.
Lamu Old Town’s Unesco status helps to support its tourism and fishing industries. Photo: Handout
However, the project’s future is uncertain after a Kenyan court, the National Environment Tribunal, ordered on June 26 that a fresh environmental impact assessment be carried out. The tribunal, which oversees decisions made by the National Environment Management Authority, also revoked the licence issued by the authority to Amu Power.
A lack of public consultation to date, as well as the environmental risks, were cited by the court, whose ruling is binding on the government. Unesco has urged Amu Power to proceed with the impact assessment, which in turn could have an impact on perceptions of Beijing’s signature transcontinental infrastructure strategy, the
Two days after the court’s verdict, Wu Peng, the Chinese ambassador to Kenya, met groups opposed to the building of the coal plant, days after they had been dispersed by police when they tried to protest at the embassy. Wu acknowledged the need to develop a different approach to hear the public’s views.
Anti-coal campaigners have been demanding China back out. Of the plant’s estimated US$2 billion cost, US$1.2 billion is coming from the Industrial Commercial Bank of China.
The three Chinese companies – Sichuan Electric Power Design and Consulting, China Huadian, and Sichuan No 3 Power Construction – teamed up with Kenya’s Centum Investments and Gulf Energy in a venture to form Amu Power. Another Chinese firm, Power Construction (PowerChina), was contracted to build the plant, which is expected to generate 1,050 megawatts of electricity.
The Chinese embassy in Nairobi said it had asked the Chinese investors to wait for Kenya’s decision on whether it should go ahead.
“Our position is that the Kenyan people are the final decision makers in this project and the Chinese government respects that,” embassy spokeswoman Huang Xueqing said.
Despite committing to cutting China’s reliance on coal, Beijing is still funding several coal-powered plants around the world. Both China and Kenya signed the
on climate change in 2016, promising to cut carbon emissions.
China may be providing a market for its coal by outsourcing its fossil fuel use to other countries, according to 350.org, which campaigns to prevent climate change and works to end use of fossil fuels.
Yossi Cadan, a senior campaigner for the organisation, said many people looked to China to be the new world leader in addressing climate change, given its government’s ambitious initiative to reduce emissions domestically. US President Donald Trump, by contrast, made the controversial decision to
Activists and Lamu residents have protested about the coal plant. Photo: Handout
“While China seems determined to meet its Paris climate agreement targets at home, it undermines those efforts to reduce global emissions by simultaneously investing in coal projects across the world,” Cadan said.
According to Cadan, cancellations and delays of coal projects in China left a desperate Chinese coal industry looking elsewhere, assisted by Chinese financial institutions.
He argued that if China was serious about being a global leader in reducing emissions and tackling the climate crisis, it must apply the same restrictions it was
Analysts said that if the Lamu coal project were to be abandoned, other Chinese-funded coal power projects in Africa would come under the spotlight.
China is funding eight coal-powered projects in Africa, including Egypt’s Hamrawein plant, which has an estimated cost of US$4.2 billion and is expected to generate six gigawatts of power.
Omar Elmawi, campaign coordinator at deCOALonize, was among the campaigners who met ambassador Wu two weeks ago.
“Other African countries could take a cue from [the Kenyan situation],” he said. “Already key financial institutions are coming up with policies that are either cutting back on or refusing to fund new coal plant projects. This will add to the pressure on China to abandon coal projects.”
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Greenpeace’s air pollution unit, said the Lamu case could spur the Chinese government to adapt its criteria for supporting overseas energy projects. This could include requiring coal-fired power projects overseas to meet more stringent emissions standards.
“Currently, essentially all of the overseas coal-fired power projects with involvement from Chinese banks and firms plan to use much weaker emissions control technology than is allowed in China, leading to much worse air quality impacts and public health impacts – which was the case in Lamu,” Myllyvirta said.
“It’s hard to see how [a weaker emissions standard] fits with the Chinese leadership’s objectives of greening the belt and road, and projecting a positive, technologically advanced image of China overseas.”
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