Archive for ‘US President Donald Trump’

02/10/2019

France’s Emmanuel Macron to meet Xi Jinping in China next month with focus on climate change and trade, source says

  • The trip comes amid growing resistance from European leaders over what they see as China’s failure to change long-term practices unfair to foreign investors
  • French President’s trip to Beijing follows Chinese leader’s visit to France in March
President Emmanuel Macron of France speaks to the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly on Tuesday. Photo: AFP
President Emmanuel Macron of France speaks to the Council of Europe parliamentary assembly on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

French President Emmanuel Macron will visit China next month as Europe’s most diplomatically active leader focuses on climate change cooperation and trade promotion with Asia’s leading power, a source briefed on the Elysee Palace’s discussions said.

This will be the second Chinese tour for Macron since he took office in 2017, and it will come amid escalating resistance from European politicians and business communities over what they see as China’s failure to change long-standing practices unfair to foreign investors.

His visit also comes at a time when France – as well as the European Union as a whole – is bracing for Washington’s potential levies of tariffs on European products, and the lack of progress on climate change policies with US President Donald Trump’s administration.

“President Macron will meet President Xi [Jinping], while France strives for better cooperation with China on climate and trade,” the source said. “His itinerary is still in the pipeline, but he is expected to visit Beijing and Shanghai.”

Macron, 41, who is widely seen as emerging as Europe’s most aggressive leader filling the political vacuum left by German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political twilight, has cast himself as an honest broker between Russia and Ukraine, and between the US and Iran.

He has also been critical of China’s influence in Europe, joining forces with Merkel to push for a tougher EU stance on the world’s second biggest economy.

In March, when Xi claimed a major diplomatic victory by clinching a memorandum of understanding with Italy on the Belt and Road Initiative, Macron declared: “The time of European naivety is ended. For many years we had an uncoordinated approach and China took advantage of our divisions.”

Macron also backed investment screening mechanisms for Chinese business moves in Europe, while endorsing plans to change the EU’s notoriously strict antitrust rules in order to facilitate mergers between large European groups and companies to counter Chinese companies’ global ambitions.

Macron urges Iran and US to show ‘courage of building peace’

The EU is also wary of China’s effort to “divide and rule” the European Union. Greece and Hungary – both recipients of large amounts of Chinese investments – have repeatedly wanted to water down EU’s stance on issues deemed sensitive to Beijing, including the South China Sea and China’s human rights violations.

“It would be good [for Macron] to stress that 17+1 is irritating,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of EU Chamber of Commerce in China, in reference to China’s engagement with a group of EU and non-EU member states in eastern and southeastern Europe.

“After all, the EU has a ‘one China’ policy, [so] EU could expect this position from China too.”

Macron’s domestic call for EU unity has translated into diplomatic appeals, with China being one of the targets.

(From left) Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission; Xi Jinping, China’s leader; Emmanuel Macron, France’s president; and Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, ahead of a meeting in Paris on March 26. Photo: Christophe Morin/Bloomberg
(From left) Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission; Xi Jinping, China’s leader; Emmanuel Macron, France’s president; and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, ahead of a meeting in Paris on March 26. Photo: Christophe Morin/Bloomberg

When Xi visited France in March, Macron hosted him at the Elysee Palace in the presence of Merkel and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, showcasing European solidarity when it comes to EU-China policies.

In terms of French-Chinese bilateral ties, trade imbalances have persisted after Macron called for a “rebalancing” during his last visit.

France has a 1.4 per cent market share in China, compared with China’s 9 per cent market share in France. China represents France’s largest bilateral trade deficit, totalling €US$29.2 billion (US$31.9 billion) last year, ahead of Germany.

The EU has been calling for reciprocal investment treatment with China, a call that European business leaders in China expect Macron to make.

France bids farewell to late president Jacques Chirac

“We [Europe] need … a solid investment agreement to allow EU business to conduct their affairs in a similar manner as Chinese companies can operate in Europe. The agreement should be finalised in 2020, but not at all cost,” said Wuttke.

“The last thing EU business needs in China is a weak agreement that institutionalises imbalances,” he added.

Part of that involves building “more efficient defensive tools to prevent abusive technology transfers and to address the deep asymmetry in EU-China relations when it comes to access to public procurement markets,” said Mathieu Duchâtel, director of Asia programme at the Paris-based think tank Institut Montaigne.

Duchâtel added that it was also important to convey the message to Beijing that there are areas for cooperation even amid a more defensive China policy from France.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and French leader Emmanuel Macron toast raise a toast during a state dinner in Paris on March 25. Photo: EPA-EFE
Chinese President Xi Jinping and French leader Emmanuel Macron toast raise a toast during a state dinner in Paris on March 25. Photo: EPA-EFE

One such area is the climate and environment, where China is “an important partner” for France to reach its goal of global carbon neutrality by 2050, he said.

“The energy/environment agenda is a political priority in Paris and one of very few issues on which cooperation with China remains promising and will continue to create business opportunities,” he said.

China is the world’s biggest carbon polluter, producing around 30 per cent of the planet’s man-made carbon dioxide. It remains committed to the 2015 Paris accord on climate change, even after Trump pulled the US out of the deal.

Under the agreement, the long-term temperature goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

Source: SCMP

31/08/2019

AI face-off: Alibaba’s Jack Ma sees new human chapter while Tesla’s Elon Musk frets about machine control

  • Shanghai AI conference has attracted executives from nearly 300 companies including US firms Intel, IBM, Microsoft and Qualcomm
  • Ma is mainly an AI optimist, whereas Musk has sounded several warnings on the topic
Elon Musk and Jack Ma face off over AI at the 2019 Shanghai WAIC. Photo: SCMP
Elon Musk and Jack Ma face off over AI at the 2019 Shanghai WAIC. Photo: SCMP

Billionaire techpreneurs Jack Ma and Elon Musk faced off over AI in a much-anticipated morning session at the Shanghai World Artificial Intelligence Conference on Thursday, and although sparks didn’t actually fly it was clear to the packed audience that they each have a different vision of the future.

“AI will open a new chapter so that humans will know themselves better,” said Jack Ma, Alibaba Group Holding founder. “Most of the projections about AI are wrong … people who are street-smart about AI are not scared by it.”

The conference has attracted executives from nearly 300 companies including US firms Intel, IBM, Microsoft and Qualcomm as well as scientists and scholars from across the world. Both men had to condense their visions of the future into a compact 45-minute session, which also included answering a series of pre-prepared questions from Chinese netizens.

“Due to AI, people will have more time to enjoy themselves as a human being … forget long days, we could end up with 12-hour work weeks,” said Ma. “I don’t worry too much about the impact of AI on jobs … in the future we will not need a lot of jobs.”

Musk, who has founded a string of tech ventures including SpaceX, Boring Company and Neuralink aside from his role as co-founder and CEO of Tesla, said he had heard that “AI sounds like love in Chinese” but in a more cautious tone described AI as “much more than just a smart human”.

“Humans may become too slow. A millisecond is an eternity to a computer today,” said Musk, who has championed everything from electric cars to Mars colonies. “Computers are already smarter than human beings in many aspects,” he said, adding that while humans write AI software today, in the end the machine will do this itself.

Alibaba co-founder and chairman Jack Ma speaks at the 2019 World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos. Photo: Xinhua
Alibaba co-founder and chairman Jack Ma speaks at the 2019 World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos. Photo: Xinhua

The comments from the two executives, who are both engaged in industries [e-commerce and autonomous driving] where AI is essential – were largely in line with what they have said before on the topic. Ma is mainly an optimist, seeing AI as an inevitable agent of change in a digital world, whereas Musk has sounded several warnings.

In 2017, Musk – along with 100 robotics and AI leaders – urged the United Nations to take action against the dangers of autonomous weapons, known as “killer robots”. He has also described AI as humanity’s “biggest existential threat”, comparing it to “summoning the demon”.

AI cannot replace me yet, says Esquire magazine editor
Earlier in the week, Ma said that amid an escalating trade and technology war between the US and China, both countries needed to make a concerted effort to work together on technology for the world to benefit from the digital era.
“In the smart era, it is almost impossible for anyone to strike out on their own,” Ma said in a speech at the Smart China Expo in Chongqing on Monday. “Only if China and the US work together on technology, can we enter the digital era together.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, 2019. Photo: AP
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, 2019. Photo: AP

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, Beijing’s top trade negotiator said on Monday at a conference that an escalation of the trade war was not in anyone’s interests. US tariffs on some US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports – mostly consumer goods – are expected to increase from 10 to 15 per cent later this year, in retaliation to China’s decision last week to impose tariffs of between 5 to 10 per cent on US$75 billion worth of American products including soybeans, pork and crude oil.

Automobiles is one of the most high-profile sectors to be affected by the trade war, and US President Donald Trump has highlighted the tariff gap between the US and China on imported cars in earlier comments.

Minority Report-style crime prevention is fast becoming reality

Founded in 2003, Tesla is currently building its first overseas factory in Shanghai, which is nearing completion and expected to start production by the year end with an initial annual output of 250,000 vehicles.

China is Tesla’s second largest market after the US. The California-based electric car-maker reported an over 40 per cent year-on-year surge in sales generated in the country to nearly US$1.5 billion in the first six months of the year.

Musk is expected to visit the US$5 billion production facility in Lingang, part of Shanghai’s free-trade zone, amid his China trip and launch a China unit for his infrastructure start-up Boring, as announced earlier on Twitter.

Source: SCMP

31/08/2019

Assam NRC: What next for 1.9 million ‘stateless’ Indians?

Final Draft of National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) released on July 30, 2018Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Four million people were stripped of their citizenship in the draft list last July

India has published the final version of a list which effectively strips about 1.9 million people in the north-eastern state of Assam of their citizenship.

The National Register of Citizens (NRC) is a list of people who can prove they came to the state by 24 March 1971, the day before neighbouring Bangladesh declared independence from Pakistan.

People left off the list will have 120 days to appeal against their exclusion.

It is unclear what happens next.

India says the process is needed to identify illegal Bangladeshi migrants.

It has already detained thousands of people suspected of being foreigners in temporary camps which are housed in the state’s prisons, but deportation is currently not an option for the country.

The process has also sparked criticism of “witch hunts” against Assam’s ethnic minorities.

A draft version of the list published last year had four million people excluded.

What is the registry of citizens?

The NRC was created in 1951 to determine who was born in Assam and is therefore Indian, and who might be a migrant from neighbouring Bangladesh.

The register has been updated for the first time.

Indian worker of National Register of Citizens (NRC) office checks different documents which were submitted by people for NRC ahead of the release of the final draft of NRC in Guwahati, Assam, India, 26 August 2019.Image copyright EPA
Image caption The NRC was created in 1951 to determine who was born in the state and is Indian

Families in the state have been required to provide documentation to show their lineage, with those who cannot prove their citizenship deemed illegal foreigners.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long railed against illegal immigration in India but has made the NRC a priority in recent years.

Presentational grey line

An anxious wait

By Rajini Vaidyanathan, BBC News, Assam

A small community centre in the village of Katajhar is being guarded by two members of the Indian army. Outside, a line of people wait. Some are clutching plastic bags containing documents.

As they enter one of two rooms, an official runs his eyes down a print-out to see if their names or photos are on it. This list – the National Register of Citizens – is one with huge consequences. And so there’s fear and trepidation as people here find out whether they’ve been included.

Many here who haven’t made it tell me it’s a mistake as they show me paperwork they say proves they belong in this country.

None of Asia Khatun’s family of nine made the list. They now have the chance to appeal but there’s real fear about what might come next. “I’d rather die than go to a detention centre,” she tells me. People here are angry but they’re also scared.

Presentational grey line

Why is the registry happening in Assam?

Assam is one India’s most multi-ethnic states. Questions of identity and citizenship have long vexed a vast number of people living there.

Among its residents are Bengali and Assamese-speaking Hindus, as well as a medley of tribespeople.

A third of the state’s 32 million residents are Muslims, the second-highest number after Indian-administered Kashmir. Many of them are descendants of immigrants who settled there under British rule.

But illegal migration from neighbouring Bangladesh, which shares a 4,000-km long border with India, has been a concern there for decades now. The government said in 2016 that an estimated 20 million illegal immigrants were living in India.

So have 1.9 million people effectively become stateless?

Not quite. Residents excluded from the list can appeal to the specially formed courts called Foreigners Tribunals, as well as the high court and Supreme Court.

However, a potentially long and exhaustive appeals process will mean that India’s already overburdened courts will be further clogged, and poor people left off the list will struggle to raise money to fight their cases.

In this photo taken on August 29, 2019, Saheb Ali, 55, poses for a photograph at his home in Khutamari village in Goalpara district, some 160km from Guwahati, the capital city of India's north-eastern state of AssamImage copyright AFP
Image caption Saheb Ali, 55, from Goalpara district, has not been included in the list

If people lose their appeals in higher courts, they could be detained indefinitely.

Some 1,000 people declared as foreigners earlier are already lodged in six detention centres located in prisons. Mr Modi’s government is also building an exclusive detention centre, which can hold 3,000 detainees.

“People whose names are not on the final list are really anxious about what lies ahead. One of the reasons is that the Foreigners Tribunal does not have a good reputation, and many people are worried that they will have to go through this process,” Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty, author of Assam: The Accord, The Discord, told the BBC.

Why have been the courts so controversial?

The special courts were first set up in 1964, and since then they have declared more than 100,000 people foreigners. They regularly identify “doubtful voters” or “illegal infiltrators” as foreigners to be deported.

But the workings of the specially formed Foreigners Tribunals, which have been hearing the contested cases, have been mired in controversy.

There are more than 200 such courts in Assam today, and their numbers are expected to go up to 1,000 by October. The majority of these tribunals were set up after the BJP came to power in 2014.

The courts have been accused of bias and their workings have often been opaque and riddled with inconsistencies.

Media caption Living in limbo: Assam’s four million unwanted

For one thing, the burden of proof is on the accused or the alleged foreigner.

For another, many families are unable to produce documents due to poor record-keeping, illiteracy or because they lack the money to file a legal claim.

People have been declared foreigners by the courts because of differences in spellings of names or ages in voter rolls, and problems in getting identity documents certified by authorities. Amnesty International has described the work by the special courts as “shoddy and lackadaisical”.

Journalist Rohini Mohan analysed more than 500 judgements by these courtsin one district and found 82% of the people on trial had been declared foreigners. She also found more Muslims had been declared foreigners, and 78% of the orders were delivered without the accused being ever heard – the police said they were “absconding”, but Mohan found many of them living in their villages and unaware they had been declared foreigners.

“The Foreigners Tribunal,” she says, “must be made more transparent and accountable.”

A decorated Indian army veteran, Mohammed Sanaullah spent 11 days in a detention camp in June after being declared a “foreigner”, prompting national outrage.

Both the citizen’s register and the tribunals have also sparked fears of a witch hunt against Assam’s ethnic minorities.

Have the minorities been targeted?

Many say the list has nothing to do with religion, but activists see it as targeting the state’s Bengali community, a large portion of whom are Muslims.

They also point to the plight of Rohingya Muslims in neighbouring Bangladesh.

Activists in Assam take part in a protest against the a bill that seeks to give Hindu migrants more rights.Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption The move to make millions of people stateless will probably spark protests

However significant numbers of Bengali-speaking Hindus have also been left off the citizenship list, underscoring the communal and ethnic tensions in the state

“One of the communities worst affected by the list are the Bengali Hindus. There are as many of them in detention camps as Muslims. This is also the reason just days before NRC is to be published the BJP has changed tack, from taking credit for it to calling it error-ridden. That is because the Bengali Hindus are a strong voter base of the BJP,” says Barooah Pisharoty.

The human tragedy

Fearing possible loss of citizenship and detention after exclusion from the list, scores of Bengali Hindus and Muslims have killed themselves since the process to update the citizen register started in 2015, activists say.

And in an echo of US President Donald Trump’s policy to separate undocumented parents and children, families have been similarly broken up in Assam.

Detainees have complained of poor living conditions and overcrowding in the detention centres.

Bhaben Das' family get ready to perform his final ritesImage copyright CITIZENS FOR JUSTICE AND PEACE
Image caption A father and son killed themselves 30 years apart because of citizenship doubts (photo shows funeral)

One detainee told a rights group after his release he had been taken to a room which had a capacity for 40 people, but was filled with around 120 people. People who have been declared foreigners as well as many inmates have been suffering from depression. Children have also been detained with their parents.

Human rights activist Harsh Mander, who visited two detention centres, has spoken about a situation of “grave and extensive human distress and suffering”.

What happens to people who are declared foreigners?

The BJP which rules the state, has insisted in the past that illegal Muslim immigrants will be deported. But neighbouring Bangladesh will definitely not accede to such a request.

Many believe that India will end up creating the newest cohort of stateless people, raising the spectre of a homegrown crisis that will echo that of the Rohingya people who fled Myanmar for Bangladesh.

It is not clear whether the people stripped of their Indian citizenship will be able to access welfare or own property.

One possibility is that once they are released, they will be given work permits with some basic rights, but will not be allowed to vote.

Source: The BBC

28/08/2019

China again blocks US Navy port visit as Qingdao request is denied

  • It follows Beijing’s decision earlier this month to turn down an application for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong
  • The countries have traded barbs about the handling of anti-government protests in the city
The US has had port visits denied by Chinese authorities twice this month. Photo: Alamy
The US has had port visits denied by Chinese authorities twice this month. Photo: Alamy

A US Navy warship was denied a port visit to the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao on Sunday, the US Indo-Pacific Command said on Wednesday.

The request denial comes at a time of heightened tensions between China and the United States, with the countries engaged in a prolonged trade dispute and a war of words over anti-government protests in Hong Kong.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] denied the US Navy’s request to visit the Qingdao Port,” Commander Reann Mommsen, public affairs officer for the US Seventh Fleet, said in a statement on Wednesday.

Mommsen declined to name the warship denied entry or when the request was refused, referring questions about the reasons to Beijing.

The blocked visit was first reported by Reuters, which cited an anonymous US defence official as saying that China had denied the request for the destroyer before the intended visit on Sunday.

It is the second time in a month that China has prevented US Navy vessels making a port call.

On August 13, the United States Pacific Fleet said China had denied requests for two US Navy ships to visit Hong Kong.

The USS Green Bay, an amphibious dock landing ship, had been due to make a port call in Hong Kong on August 17, and the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie was scheduled to visit next month, according to Nate Christensen, deputy spokesman for the Pacific Fleet.

A source close to the Chinese navy confirmed the Qingdao rejection, saying it was “normal practice” based on the current China-US relationship.

“Hasn’t the [US’] application to visit Hong Kong just been rejected?” the source asked.

Hong Kong has seen 12 weeks of anti-government protests, triggered by a now-shelved

extradition bill  

that would have allowed criminal suspects to be transferred to mainland China.

Beijing has increasingly   suggested
the protests are being funded by the West, a claim the US has   called “ludicrous”
.

Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said the refusal was a natural result of the worsening bilateral ties between China and the US.

“Many bilateral exchanges are bound to deteriorate when countries’ ties worsen, such as during the China-US trade war. And now coupled with the Hong Kong unrest, many exchanges [between China and the US] have been downgraded,” Zhou said.

Liu Weidong, from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, echoed Zhou’s view and said a visit from the US warship would be meaningless at present.

“Now the US is very provocative … so China doesn’t want to welcome its warship,” Liu said.

Doubt has been cast on whether trade talks between the two countries are set to resume, with Beijing’s foreign ministry contradicting US President Donald Trump’s claim that China had sought a return to the negotiating table.

The countries had been due to speak on Tuesday, according to a previous statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce after their last telephone call on August 13. But there has been no announcement so far from either side on whether such a conversation took place.

Last week, China said it would levy retaliatory tariffs of 5 to 10 per cent on US$75 billion worth of US goods. The Trump administration responded by announcing a tariff increase from 25 to 30 per cent on US$250 billion of Chinese goods, and from 10 to 15 per cent on US$300 billion worth of Chinese products.

The US also designated Beijing as a currency manipulator, raising fears of an economic cold war between the two countries.

Source: SCMP

17/08/2019

‘Risks still too big’ for China to send in troops to quell Hong Kong unrest

  • Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues
  • Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics.
But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.

A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence.

She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.

She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.

“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.

It comes after massive anti-government protests at Hong Kong International Airport

brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland
, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources,

tweeted that the Chinese government was moving troops

to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”.

Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
Beijing ‘unlikely to intervene’ in Hong Kong as pressure mounts on police

But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted.

“As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”

He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement.

Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.

A satellite image appears to show a close-up of Chinese military vehicles at Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen. Photo: Maxar Technologies
A satellite image appears to show a close-up of Chinese military vehicles at Shenzhen Bay Sports Centre in Shenzhen. Photo: Maxar Technologies

Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed.

“There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States.

“If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”

China rejects requests for US warships to visit Hong Kong amid protests Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.

“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.

While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily.

“National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said.

“It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”

Source: SCMP

24/07/2019

China’s choice of Shanghai for US trade talks emphasises commercial rather than political focus, analysts say

  • Switching first face-to-face gathering since G20 summit from Beijing sends message that ‘trade should be trade, and politics should be politics,’ analyst says
  • Trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to meet counterparts Vice-Premier Liu He and Commerce Minister Zhong Shan
Shanghai is China’s global financial hub, while Beijing is viewed as more of a political centre. Photo: Bloomberg
Shanghai is China’s global financial hub, while Beijing is viewed as more of a political centre. Photo: Bloomberg
China’s decision to hold next week’s negotiations with the United States in Shanghai could be a fresh sign that Beijing is revising its strategy as it prepares for a protracted trade war, analysts said.
By choosing global financial hub Shanghai rather than the political centre of Beijing, China is trying to play down the political aspects of the talks and emphasise the commercial elements, analysts suggested.
The meeting will be the first face-to-face gathering of the two countries’ trade negotiators since talks collapsed in May without a deal as the US blamed China for renegading on earlier promises, while China blamed the US for being too demanding.
The trade teams have held two phone conversations in July, although neither Washington or Beijing have confirmed the venue or schedule for the talks next week.
Shen Jianguang, the chief economist at JD Digits and a veteran Chinese economy watcher, said China is changing the location of the talks to send a message that “trade should be trade, and politics should be politics”.
He added that the choice of Shanghai implies that China is trying to focus on the technical issues such as the US relaxation of sales restrictions to 
Huawei Technologies

and China’s purchase of US farm products instead of political issues that will be more difficult to resolve.

“The Shanghai talks will only result in a small step,” Shen said.

Trade representative Robert Lighthizer

and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to lead the US delegation to meet their Chinese counterparts headed by Vice-Premier Liu He and Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, the South China Morning Postreported earlier this week.

The Shanghai talks will only result in a small stepShen Jianguang

Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the talks will take place in Shanghai, and a source confirmed the location to the Post. Hua Chunying, China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, said on Wednesday that she had no information to provide on the location of the talks.
Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays, said that the choice of Shanghai is a sign that the initial goal of the talks would be “smaller”, focusing more on specific import and export arrangements rather than wholesale institutional changes in China’s economic model.
“It shows that China is preparing for a protracted trade talks for years to come,” Chang said. “For China, a precondition for a grand deal is that the US has to lift all tariffs, which the US will find very hard to do.”
Aidan Yao, a senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers, said the fact that it took almost a month after the ceasefire agreement reached between President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Japan for a face-to-face meeting to take place is already a confirmation of “the deep divide” that remains.
“Without a clear strategy to tackle them, I doubt anyone should hold their breath for a breakthrough” despite certain goodwill gestures in recent days, Yao said.

Without a clear strategy to tackle them, I doubt anyone should hold their breath for a breakthroughAidan Yao

The initial arrangements for the meeting came after the US announced that it would offer exemptions to 110 Chinese products, including medical equipment and key electronic components, from import tariffs. China, meanwhile, said that several companies would buy American agricultural products having already applied for exemptions from the tariffs imposed by Beijing.
Liao Qun, the chief economist at China Citic Bank International, said a change of location could pump “fresh air” into the talks.

“Shanghai is the window of China’s reform and opening up and the country’s economic heart,” Liao said. “It could be a positive change”.

Larry Hu, chief China economist of Macquarie Capital, noted that Shanghai has played a unique role in US-China relations.

“The important Shanghai Communiqué was inked in the city,” Hu said, referring to the diplomatic document signed between China and US in 1972 during president Richard Nixon’s visit to China to meet Chinese chairman Mao Zedong.

The document, which is part of the Three Joint Communiqués, paved the way for Beijing and Washington to establish official diplomatic relationships later that decade.

The Three Joint Communiqués are a collection of joint statements made by the governments of the US and China from 1972, 1979 and 1982.

Source: SCMP

14/07/2019

Will Narendra Modi’s snub of Xi Jinping’s belt and road derail China-India ties?

  • The Indian prime minister refused to back the Chinese leader’s ambitious global infrastructure vision at a summit last week, but the apparent snub is not getting in the way of amicable ties between Asia’s two biggest economies
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in 2017. Photo: AFP
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in 2017. Photo: AFP
Their informal summit in Wuhan last year created all the right optics; even their chemistry seemed on point. So, when 
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

and

Chinese President Xi Jinping

met last week on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the bonhomie seemed like it was there to stay.

But a day later, cracks appeared to emerge. India, holding on to its long-stated position, delivered a public snub to China by refusing to endorse its ambitious, trillion-dollar 
Belt and Road Initiative

(BRI) in the SCO summit’s Bishkek declaration.

Now, after equal parts public bonhomie and disagreement over the BRI, where do 
India-China ties

finally stand? Somewhere in the middle, by all indications.

With just 10 days before Xi and Modi meet again at the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the

Group of 20 (G20) summit

in Osaka, there have been increasing signs that both countries may now be trialling a fresh approach to diplomacy – one that neither sidesteps contentious issues nor does it allow differences to derail ties.

Chinese President Xi Jinping leads other leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India’s Narendra Modi at the 2018 summit. Photo: Xinhua
Chinese President Xi Jinping leads other leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India’s Narendra Modi at the 2018 summit. Photo: Xinhua
Such an approach would delink the thorny issues – like the

decades-old border dispute

and the BRI – from other non-contentious issues of cooperation in other sectors.

But the jury is still out on whether it will pay off, especially given the historical distrust and the baggage that both countries carry.

ROAD BUMPS GALORE

In the last week alone, there have been at least three flashpoints in the Sino-India relationship.

While the dust was still settling on India’s refusal to sign the Bishkek declaration endorsing the BRI, reports emerged that the 

Maldives

was expected to scrap plans to build jointly with China an ocean observatory overlooking the Indian Ocean. The news came a week after Modi had visited the Maldives capital Male in early June.

For Modi 2.0, India’s US-China balancing act just got trickier

The Maldives’ decision to build the observatory was first mulled in December 2017, raising the Indian establishment’s hackles as it would have given China a presence in the region.

Another irritant between India and China has seemed to be the proposed 16-nation 

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

(RCEP). India has been lukewarm on the free-trade bloc, frustrating the Chinese. Indications have been that China is likely to push for a 13-member bloc at the coming RCEP meeting in Thailand on June 20, excluding India.

BRI and border issues have not managed to overshadow the remaining business between the two countries Narayani Basu

Yet, despite all this, there has been no let down in engagement levels between Modi and Xi. Both leaders are expected to meet at the RIC summit on June 29 to 30, and have at least two more meetings planned this year alone – an informal Xi-Modi summit in India
in October and the BRICS summit on November 13 to 14.
For Narayani Basu, a New Delhi-based author and independent foreign policy analyst with a special focus on China, such sustained engagement between the two countries signals a new level of maturity.
“There has been a fairly successful attempt at delinking historical geopolitical and territorial issues from issues which are economic in nature,” Basu said. “As a result, the BRI and border issues have not managed to overshadow the remaining business between the two countries.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan. Photo: Xinhua
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan. Photo: Xinhua

STRONG LEADERS, STRONGER AGENDAS

The approach might also have to do with where both leaders currently stand.

Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have freshly emerged from a landslide

victory in the Indian polls

. Through the campaign, Modi portrayed a hardline image of himself and his government, especially on issues of national security. Similarly, Xi has emerged as a stronger leader since his reappointment last year – his approach marked by a higher-than-ever emphasis on economic nationalism and connectivity. Modi made a reference to this in his SCO meeting with Xi.

Basu said Sino-India ties were also being guided by the personalities of both leaders – strong, with harder-than-before agendas.
Did Japan and India just launch a counter to belt and road?
“They both came back on agendas based on consolidation of power, protection of sovereignty and nationalism. These are all issues that will not allow either side to blink easily. “So, even as both leaders are looking to move forward, they also do not want to compromise on their core issues – primary among them being territorial sovereignty,” she said.

The message is loud – India’s opposition to the BRI does not mean India will allow adversarial relations to develop between the two Sana Hashmi

In his SCO summit speech, Modi brought up territorial sovereignty as a thinly veiled reference to China’s BRI, saying India only supported connectivity projects that are based on “respect of sovereignty” and “regional integrity”.
Sana Hashmi, an analyst with Perth-based think tank Future Directions International and author of China’s Approach Towards Territorial Disputes: Lessons and Prospects, agreed that India was not letting historical issues get in the way of its relationship with Beijing.
Hashmi noted that India’s main objections to BRI revolved around one component – the China-
Pakistan

Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through the disputed region of Kashmir.

“But to make sure this does not affect the relationship, PM Modi and President Xi are meeting numerous times,” Hashmi said. “The message is loud – India’s opposition to the BRI does not mean India will allow adversarial relations to develop between the two.”

A NEED FOR EACH OTHER

Another factor that has likely prompted the new approach between India and China is their need for each other, particularly as both Asian powers navigate bumpy relationships with US under 

China is caught in a protracted

battle with the US over trade deficits

and is reeling from the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports to America. India, too, has seen a similar but smaller version of this trade battle play out – things have escalated especially since the Trump administration withdrew its preferential trade treatment towards India. Responding to this, India imposed tariffs on 28 US products over the weekend.

Move over, ‘Made in China’. It’s ‘Made in Bangladesh’ era now
In such a context, a stronger relationship between the two Asian giants might be in mutual interest.
Basu said the scope for the relationship to deliver on, especially economically, is vast.

“Despite the chemistry, India and China’s promises to each other on the economic front haven’t materialised on the ground. Major projects as well as investments in each country are stuck.”

Source: SCMP

14/07/2019

China meets resistance over Kenya coal plant, in test of its African ambitions

  • Court revokes licence for coal-fired power plant in Kenyan town whose Unesco World Heritage status is at stake
  • Beijing’s efforts to cut emissions domestically coincide with coal-financing ventures overseas
A proposed coal-fired power plant in Kenya involving four Chinese companies has provoked protests. Photo: Handout
A proposed coal-fired power plant in Kenya involving four Chinese companies has provoked protests. Photo: Handout
This article is part of a series in which the South China Morning Post examines the local impact of Chinese investment and infrastructure projects in Africa.
There are a few places in the world that have held onto their traditions. One is the island of Lamu, close to Kenya’s northern coast, which is an epicentre of Swahili culture in East Africa and home to its oldest and best-preserved history.
Nowhere combines the culture’s architecture and heritage like Lamu Old Town, where there are two streets, few cars and dozens of mosques and churches. Donkeys and wooden carts are the main modes of transport.
The town is a Unesco World Heritage Site with multibillion-dollar tourism and fishing industries. But it risks losing its global allure after Unesco’s World Heritage Committee warned that a US$2 billion coal-fired power plant planned in the area threatened its heritage site status.
Four Chinese companies are involved in the project. The United States also supported it, with its envoy to Kenya, Kyle McCarter, saying the country needed cheaper power and American energy firm GE promising to inject US$400 million for a 20 per cent stake in Amu Power, the operating company. The Kenyan government has said the plant would enable the country to have a diversified source of electricity.
Lamu Old Town’s Unesco status helps to support its tourism and fishing industries. Photo: Handout
Lamu Old Town’s Unesco status helps to support its tourism and fishing industries. Photo: Handout

However, the project’s future is uncertain after a Kenyan court, the National Environment Tribunal, ordered on June 26 that a fresh environmental impact assessment be carried out. The tribunal, which oversees decisions made by the National Environment Management Authority, also revoked the licence issued by the authority to Amu Power.

A lack of public consultation to date, as well as the environmental risks, were cited by the court, whose ruling is binding on the government. Unesco has urged Amu Power to proceed with the impact assessment, which in turn could have an impact on perceptions of Beijing’s signature transcontinental infrastructure strategy, the

Belt and Road Initiative

.

Two days after the court’s verdict, Wu Peng, the Chinese ambassador to Kenya, met groups opposed to the building of the coal plant, days after they had been dispersed by police when they tried to protest at the embassy. Wu acknowledged the need to develop a different approach to hear the public’s views.

Anti-coal campaigners have been demanding China back out. Of the plant’s estimated US$2 billion cost, US$1.2 billion is coming from the Industrial Commercial Bank of China.

The three Chinese companies – Sichuan Electric Power Design and Consulting, China Huadian, and Sichuan No 3 Power Construction – teamed up with Kenya’s Centum Investments and Gulf Energy in a venture to form Amu Power. Another Chinese firm, Power Construction (PowerChina), was contracted to build the plant, which is expected to generate 1,050 megawatts of electricity.
The Chinese embassy in Nairobi said it had asked the Chinese investors to wait for Kenya’s decision on whether it should go ahead.
“Our position is that the Kenyan people are the final decision makers in this project and the Chinese government respects that,” embassy spokeswoman Huang Xueqing said.
Despite committing to cutting China’s reliance on coal, Beijing is still funding several coal-powered plants around the world. Both China and Kenya signed the

Paris Agreement

on climate change in 2016, promising to cut carbon emissions.

China may be providing a market for its coal by outsourcing its fossil fuel use to other countries, according to 350.org, which campaigns to prevent climate change and works to end use of fossil fuels.
Yossi Cadan, a senior campaigner for the organisation, said many people looked to China to be the new world leader in addressing climate change, given its government’s ambitious initiative to reduce emissions domestically. US President Donald Trump, by contrast, made the controversial decision to 
Activists and Lamu residents have protested about the coal plant. Photo: Handout
Activists and Lamu residents have protested about the coal plant. Photo: Handout

“While China seems determined to meet its Paris climate agreement targets at home, it undermines those efforts to reduce global emissions by simultaneously investing in coal projects across the world,” Cadan said.

According to Cadan, cancellations and delays of coal projects in China left a desperate Chinese coal industry looking elsewhere, assisted by Chinese financial institutions.

He argued that if China was serious about being a global leader in reducing emissions and tackling the climate crisis, it must apply the same restrictions it was 

introducing domestically

to coal financing outside China.

Analysts said that if the Lamu coal project were to be abandoned, other Chinese-funded coal power projects in Africa would come under the spotlight.
China is funding eight coal-powered projects in Africa, including Egypt’s Hamrawein plant, which has an estimated cost of US$4.2 billion and is expected to generate six gigawatts of power.
Omar Elmawi, campaign coordinator at deCOALonize, was among the campaigners who met ambassador Wu two weeks ago.
“Other African countries could take a cue from [the Kenyan situation],” he said. “Already key financial institutions are coming up with policies that are either cutting back on or refusing to fund new coal plant projects. This will add to the pressure on China to abandon coal projects.”
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Greenpeace’s air pollution unit, said the Lamu case could spur the Chinese government to adapt its criteria for supporting overseas energy projects. This could include requiring coal-fired power projects overseas to meet more stringent emissions standards.
“Currently, essentially all of the overseas coal-fired power projects with involvement from Chinese banks and firms plan to use much weaker emissions control technology than is allowed in China, leading to much worse air quality impacts and public health impacts – which was the case in Lamu,” Myllyvirta said.
“It’s hard to see how [a weaker emissions standard] fits with the Chinese leadership’s objectives of greening the belt and road, and projecting a positive, technologically advanced image of China overseas.”
Source: SCMP
07/07/2019

China says briefed by U.S. on latest Trump-Kim meeting

BEIJING (Reuters) – China has received a briefing from the United States on the latest meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Saturday, in a call between two senior diplomats.

Trump became the first sitting U.S. president to set foot in North Korea on Sunday when he met Kim in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) at Panmunjom between the two Koreas and agreed to resume stalled nuclear talks.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui and U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun discussed that meeting in a telephone call on Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry said in a short statement.

“Biegun introduced the meeting between the U.S. and North Korean leaders at Panmunjom, and said the U.S. side is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the Chinese side on the peninsula issue,” the ministry added.

Luo told Biegun the recent “positive interactions” on the North Korean issue by all parties had important meaning for the peace talks process, the ministry said.

“China supports U.S.-North Korea exchanges and dialogue and hopes that the two sides will meet each other halfway and follow the consensus of the leaders of the two countries to resume consultations at the working level as soon as possible,” it added.

Trump’s meeting with Kim came around a week after Chinese President Xi Jinping met Kim himself during a state visit to Pyongyang.

While China has not officially announced it, Luo is likely China’s new special envoy for the North Korea issue, after predecessor Kong Xuanyou became China’s new ambassador in Tokyo in late May.

Luo was also involved in a briefing to Chinese reporters on Xi’s visit to North Korea before Xi went, according to state media.

Luo is an urbane career diplomat who speaks good English, according to diplomats who have met him.

He previously served as China’s ambassador in Canada, Pakistan and India, and also worked in the Chinese embassy in Washington from 1996-2000.

Source: Reuters

04/07/2019

Samsung and other South Korean companies’ exodus from China sets an example to Western firms fleeing trade war tariffs

  • Lotte, Kia and Hyundai are also gradually winding down their China business due to political risks, tariffs and losing market share
  • Western companies fleeing Donald Trump’s tariffs may not have luxury of a managed exit, but should look at the South Korean case studies closely, experts say
Samsung’s last mobile phone production line remaining in China in Huizhou is winding down, implementing a voluntary retirement programme. Photo: He Huifeng
Samsung’s last mobile phone production line remaining in China in Huizhou is winding down, implementing a voluntary retirement programme. Photo: He Huifeng
Upon landing in Australia in 2017 to attend a seminar, a senior politician with South Korea’s parliamentary defence committee was greeted by Julie Bishop, then Australia’s foreign minister, who had a burning question: “How are you dealing with the China threat?”
Bishop was referring to the treatment of South Korean firms in China, which escalated after Seoul agreed in 2016 to a long-standing request from the United States to allow the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD) on South Korean soil.
Lotte Corporation, one of Korea’s chaebol conglomerates that dominate its economy, had sold a plot of land in Seongju county to the South Korean government, on which the system’s radar and interceptor missiles were set up. While both Washington and Seoul said it was meant to counter threats from North Korea, Beijing viewed THAAD as a security risk, since its radar had the range to monitor China’s nearby military facilities.
After it was deployed in 2017, THAAD triggered widespread boycotts of Lotte’s retail operations in China, with the state-owned media acting as aggressive cheerleaders. The company was sanctioned by Beijing, with its expansion plans in China grinding to a halt on the orders of the Chinese government.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) arrived in Seongju in September 2017. Photo: Reuters
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) arrived in Seongju in September 2017. Photo: Reuters

Australia – like South Korea – is heavily dependent on trade with China, but is also closely bound to the US in defence and political terms, and Bishop feared that should Australia fall out of favour with Beijing, Australian companies could face similar risks, and so she sought the counsel of the politician, who asked not to be named.

The case of Canadian canola and meat exports being banned from China, reportedly in retaliation for the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, also known as Sabrina Meng and Cathy Meng, is an example of how third nations can be drawn into the modern day superpower rivalry.

Many analysts say the efforts of South Korean firms in China should be essential study material for Western governments and businesses about the political risks of doing business in the mainland, which are growing as the US-China trade war threatens to draw in other nations and expand into a broader geopolitical struggle.

But large South Korean firms have been gradually withdrawing from China for a number of years – even before the THAAD crisis – and have been able to leave on a managed basis. They are leaving to avoid a repeat of the political crisis that ruined Lotte’s China business, and to avoid tariffs on exports of their China-made products to the US.

Lotte have been forced to close retail operations in China. Photo: Reuters
Lotte have been forced to close retail operations in China. Photo: Reuters

But they are also leaving because Chinese firms have become much more competitive in the domestic market that South Korean companies had found so fruitful for more than a decade – a fate that could easily befall Western companies that are eyeing China’s burgeoning middle-class consumer market. Now, while American firms are considering exiting China and setting up in nations that have lower tariff access to the US, South

Korean competitors have had a few years’ head start.

“In a way, all the problems that some South Korean companies had since 2017 might be a blessing in disguise. It meant that they started all of this [supply chain shift] two years before all the other companies,” said Andrew Gilholm, Seoul-based director of analysis for China and Korea at political risk advisory, Control Risks.

Another chaebol, Samsung Electronics, opened its first plant in Vietnam in 2008 and this long-term presence has enabled it to build a supply chain of South Korean companies, which in turn makes it easier for other South Korean firms to establish a base in the Southeast Asian nation.

We have experienced some of the worst situations in China over the past few years and learnt that the political risk there wouldn’t just simply go away overnight Ex-Lotte Shopping manager

As a result, South Korean investment into Vietnam climbed to US$1.97 billion in the first half of 2018, exceeding the country’s investment in China of US$1.6 billion over the same period for the first time, according to the Export-Import Bank of Korea.

Overall in 2018, South Korea’s total investment to the Southeast Asian country totalled US$3.2 billion. Its exports to Vietnam also increased to US$48.6 billion, 121 times that of 1992, when the two countries established diplomatic relations, and the trend is expected to continue.

“We have experienced some of the worst situations in China over the past few years and learnt that the political risk there wouldn’t just simply go away overnight,” said a former manager of Lotte Shopping, the chaebol’s retail arm, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“China may pass all the legislation ensuring the safety of foreign investments and the rights of multinational companies, but the chance of it swinging away again when there is another political confrontation is just too high … we cannot afford to take any more risk.”

China eventually lifted its economic sanctions on Lotte in April, and the municipal government of Shenyang, the capital of Liaoning province in Northeastern China, gave the company permission in May to resume work on the US$2.6 billion Lotte Town shopping and leisure development.

But according to a person close to the project, Lotte is considering selling the complex after its completion, as it does not wish to continue its retail business in China. A Lotte spokesman declined to comment, saying the situation is “complicated”.

On one hand, its eagerness to leave China reflects the volatility in the market, but on the other, its decision to complete the construction of project before leaving suggests an unwillingness to burn bridges in the process, analysts said.

Samsung is another South Korean giant downsizing its Chinese manufacturing presence after it closed its Shenzhen production line in May 2018, followed by its Tianjin factory in December.

Samsung has been very aware of the potential issues around those closuresJason Wright

Its last remaining mobile phone production line in

China, in Huizhou, is also winding down,

implementing a voluntary retirement programme. Samsung is also considering moving some television manufacturing from China to Vietnam, according to a company insider.

However, it too, is carefully managing its exit strategy, said Jason Wright, founder of Hong Kong-based intelligence firm Argo Associates, who is advising a growing number of South Korean companies seeking to leave China. Samsung is still a large supplier of microchips to Chinese companies like Huawei, and to exit on negative terms could disrupt its ongoing business.
“Samsung has been quite generous in the packages that have been offered [to workers in the factories that it has closed],” Wright said. “Samsung has been very aware of the potential issues around those closures.”
As well as the political risks and tariffs, Samsung has seen its mainland market share in several product queues shrink dramatically due to competition from Chinese rivals. Its share of China’s smartphone market, for example, fell from 20 per cent in 2013 to just 0.8 per cent last year, according to Strategy Analytics, a market research firm.
Over the same period, it has been moving its supply chain out of China in a “subtle and imperceptible” way, according to Julien Chaisse, a professor of trade law at City University of Hong Kong who has advised, among others, Lotte on its plans to relocate to Vietnam.
Samsung Electronics opened its first plant in Vietnam in 2008. Photo: Cissy Zhou
Samsung Electronics opened its first plant in Vietnam in 2008. Photo: Cissy Zhou
As stories emerged in June that Apple was considering a partial exit of China, it was impossible not to see parallels. iPhone sales in China fell 30 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, according to research firm Canalys, while smartphones will be among those facing a potential tariff of up to 25 per cent, although this has been at least delayed after the trade war truce agreed by

US President Donald Trump

and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the

G20 summit in Osaka.

Meanwhile, South Korean car companies Kia and Hyundai’s combined market share in China fell to 2.7 per cent last year, from about 10 per cent at the beginning of the decade. Both companies, which have shared ownership, are downsizing their Chinese operations.

“In the past, China was just a great market, but for Korea, now China has become a competitor. So that is really a change in the dynamic over the last five years. China was not really able to compete with Korea in most areas,” said Wright from Argo Associates.

City University of Hong Kong professor Chaisse traces the exodus of South Korean firms back to 2014, before THAAD and before the trade war, and highlighted an arcane arbitration case at the United Nations’ dispute settlement courts as a turning point. After that case, South Korean companies in China faced an increasingly hostile environment.

Filed in 2014 and settled in 2017, the case emerged after South Korean company Ansung Housing had been forced to sell a golf resort it was developing in Eastern China after a change in the country’s real estate legislation.

Ansung took the case to an arbitration panel, claiming it breached a Sino-Korean investment treaty. The company won – only the second defeat for China in two decades of participation in the court, but this ushered in a “change in atmosphere” for South Korean firms.

“My take is that while the Korean case is unique for a number of reasons, it highlights what is going to happen to many other foreign companies operating in China,” Chaisse said.

“I think very soon even European companies will be reconsidering their businesses in China. Every time it will be a different story: different countries, different companies, in different economic sectors will have different reaction times and the magnitude of their withdrawal may vary.”

But for those now fleeing trade war tariffs, they may not have the luxury of long-term planning that companies like Samsung and Lotte have had, said Gilholm from Control Risks.

“Long term, I think the Korean firms that are moving out of China have had it easier because they haven’t had to do it under quite such pressured and scrutinised circumstances as a company which starts to move things now,” he said.

Source: SCMP

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