Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
In Wuhan, the epicentre of China’s outbreak, all traffic lights in urban areas were turned red at 10:00, ceasing traffic for three minutes.
China’s government said the event was a chance to pay respects to “martyrs”, a reference to the 14 medical workers who died battling the virus.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China came to a standstill during the three-minute silence at 10:00 local time
They include Li Wenliang, a doctor in Wuhan who died of Covid-19 after being reprimanded by the authorities for attempting to warn others about the disease.
“I feel a lot of sorrow about our colleagues and patients who died,” a Chinese nurse who treated coronavirus patients told AFP news agency. “I hope they can rest well in heaven.”
Wearing white flowers pinned to their chest, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other government officials paid silent tribute in Beijing.
Saturday’s commemorations coincide with the annual Qingming festival, when millions of Chinese families pay respects to their ancestors.
China first informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about cases of pneumonia with unknown causes on 31 December last year.
By 18 January, the confirmed number of cases had risen to around 60 – but experts estimated the real figure was closer to 1,700.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China’s government said the commemoration was held to pay respects to “martyrs”
Just two days later, as millions of people prepared to travel for the lunar new year, the number of cases more than tripled to more than 200 and the virus was detected in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
From that point, the virus began to spread rapidly in Asia and then Europe, eventually reaching every corner of the globe.
Media caption The BBC met people in Beijing heading out after the lockdown
In the past few weeks, China has started to ease travel and social-distancing restrictions, believing it has brought the health emergency under control.
Last weekend, Wuhan partially re-opened after more than two months of isolation.
On Saturday, China reported 19 new confirmed cases of coronavirus, down from 31 a day earlier. China’s health commission said 18 of those cases involved travellers arriving from abroad.
As it battles to control cases coming from abroad, China temporarily banned all foreign visitors, even if they have visas or residence permits.
What is the latest worldwide?
As the coronavirus crisis in China abates, the rest of the world remains firmly in the grip of the disease.
The deaths increased by 1,480 in 24 hours, the highest daily death toll since the pandemic began, AFP news agency reported, citing Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker.
The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the pandemic has bought the global economy to a standstill, causing a recession “way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008
The United Nations appealed to governments around the world not to use the pandemic as an excuse to stifle dissent
BEIJING/WUHAN, China (Reuters) – China on Saturday mourned the thousands of “martyrs” who have died in the new coronavirus outbreak, flying the national flag at half mast throughout the country and suspending all forms of entertainment.
The Chinese national flag flies at half-mast at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, as China holds a national mourning for those who died of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), on the Qingming tomb sweeping festival, April 4, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins
The day of mourning coincided with the start of the annual Qingming tomb-sweeping festival, when millions of Chinese families pay respects to their ancestors.
At 10 a.m. (0200 GMT) Beijing time, the country observed three minutes of silence to mourn those who died, including frontline medical workers and doctors. Cars, trains and ships sounded their horns and air raid sirens wailed.
In Zhongnanhai, the seat of political power in Beijing, President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders paid silent tribute in front of the national flag, with white flowers pinned to their chest as a mark of mourning, state media reported.
More than 3,300 people in mainland China have died in the epidemic, which first surfaced in the central province of Hubei late last year, according to statistics published by the National Health Commission.
In Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province and the epicentre of the outbreak, all traffic lights in urban areas turned red at 10 a.m. and all road traffic ceased for three minutes.
Some 2,567 people have died in Wuhan, a megacity of 11 million people located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river. The Wuhan deaths account for more than 75% of the country’s fatalities.
Among those who died was Li Wenliang, a young doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the disease. Li was honoured by the Hubei government earlier this week, after initially being reprimanded by police in Wuhan for “spreading rumours”.
Gui Yihong, 27, who was among thousands of Wuhan locals who volunteered to deliver food supplies to hospitals during the city’s months-long lockdown, recalled the fear, frustration and pain at Wuhan Central Hospital, where Li worked.
“If you weren’t at the frontlines you wouldn’t be able to experience this,” said Gui, as he laid some flowers next to Wuhan’s 1954 flood memorial by the Yangtze.
“I had to (come) and bear witness. For the last 80 days we had fought between life and death, and finally gained victory. It was not easy at all to come by.”
While the worst was behind Wuhan, the virus has spread to all corners of the globe since January, sickening more than a million people, killing more than 55,000 and paralysing the world economy.
Wuhan banned all tomb-sweeping activities in its cemeteries until at least April 30, curtailing one of the most important dates in the traditional Chinese lunar new year calendar which usually sees millions of families travel to tend to their ancestral graves, offer flowers and burn incense.
They have also told residents, most stuck at home due to lockdown restrictions, to use online streaming services to watch cemetery staff carry out those tasks live.
ASYMPTOMATIC CASES
Online, celebrities including “X-Men: Days of Future Past” star Fan Bingbing swapped their glamorous social media profile pictures for sombre photos in grey or black, garnering millions of “likes” from fans.
Chinese gaming and social media giant Tencent (0700.HK) suspended all online games on Saturday.
As of Friday, the total number of confirmed cases across the country stood at 81,639, including 19 new infections, the National Health Commission said.
Eighteen of the new cases involved travellers arriving from abroad. The remaining one new infection was a local case in Wuhan, a patient who was previously asymptomatic.
Asymptomatic people exhibit few signs of infection such as fevers or coughs, and are not included in the tally of confirmed cases by Chinese authorities until they do.
However, they are still infectious, and the government has warned of possible local transmissions if such asymptomatic cases are not properly monitored.
China reported 64 new asymptomatic cases as of Friday, including 26 travellers arriving in the country from overseas. That takes the total number of asymptomatic people currently under medical observation to 1,030, including 729 in Hubei.
‘As two of the great countries on Earth, cooperation between China and the US could, and should, be used to bring a more positive outcome for all humankind,’ academics say
‘Political bickering does nothing to contribute to the healthy development of Sino-US relations, nor will it help the people of the world to rationally and accurately understand and cope with the pandemic,’ they say
Chinese academics have urged nations to cooperate to find a solution to the global public health crisis. Photo: AFP
A group of 100 Chinese scholars has signed an open letter calling on the
The signatories, who include former diplomats and academics from various fields, including political science, international relations and sociology, said that while the origins of the coronavirus remained unknown, hurling accusations achieved nothing but hurt.
Nations should stop “complaining, finger-pointing and blaming one another” and instead cooperate to find a solution to the global public health crisis, they said.
“Political bickering does nothing to contribute to the healthy development of Sino-US relations, nor will it help the people of the world to rationally and accurately understand and cope with the pandemic,” the scholars said in the letter published on Thursday in online news magazine The Diplomat.
“As two of the great countries on Earth, cooperation between China and the US could, and should, be used to bring a more positive outcome for all humankind,” it said.
The scholars also urged the two sides to put aside their bickering over where and how the disease originated.
“At this stage of the pandemic, the exact source and origin of Covid-19 remain undetermined, but these questions are unimportant and finger-pointing is demeaning and hurtful to everyone,” they said.
US and Chinese officials have sparred for weeks over the origins of the coronavirus, which was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan but has since spread around the world, infecting more than 1 million people and killing close to 53,000.
Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the pathogen as the “Chinese virus”. Photo: Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the pathogen as the “Chinese virus”, while other US politicians have said it was created in a Chinese laboratory. For China’s part, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian suggested the coronavirus
might have been carried into the country by US soldiers.
China’s ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai said in an interview on American television last month that speculating about the origin of the virus was “harmful”, but the finger-pointing on both sides has plunged relations between the two countries to a new low.
The open letter was the idea of Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, who said its aim was not only to show the willingness of China’s intellectual elite to promote solidarity and reduce tensions, but to make clear that the priority right now was saving lives.
“We did not criticise anyone in the letter, or mention any names. We did not want to fuel the current disputes and confrontations,” he said.
“Most Chinese intellectuals are peaceful, rational and constructive, and thankfully we quickly reached consensus on the content of the letter.”
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The scholars said that after months of battling the coronavirus and seeing the situation at home improve, China now wanted to share its experience and knowledge with other countries as they seek to contain its spread.
“Chinese people have made unimaginable efforts and sacrifices to achieve hard-won results,” Wang said.
“We are grateful for the support of the international community, including donations from American friends, during the most critical stage of the fight … and we are willing to share our experiences with other countries and provide all available assistance to them.”
Wu Sike, a former Chinese special envoy to the Middle East, was among the signatories to the open letter. Photo: Xinhua
Among the other signatories were Wu Sike, a senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies and former special envoy to the Middle East, and Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University, who described the Covid-19 pandemic as a “global issue that overrides geopolitics concerns”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump agreed in a telephone call last week to work together to contain the spread of Covid-19, but critics have questioned how long their cordiality can last against a backdrop of rising China-US tensions over trade, the media and regional security.
TAIPEI/BEIJING (Reuters) – Taiwan and the United States this week discussed how to get “closer coordination” between the island and the World Health Organization (WHO) during the coronavirus outbreak, drawing a rebuke from China for “political manipulation” of the epidemic.
Taiwan’s is excluded from the WHO due to diplomatic pressure from China, which considers it merely a wayward province with no right to the trappings of state.
Its omission has become a major source of anger for the Taiwan, which says it has been unable to get first hand information from the WHO, putting lives on the island in danger for the sake of politics. Both the WHO and China say Taiwan has been given the help it needs.
The U.S. State Department said on Thursday senior officials from the United States and Taiwan on Tuesday held a “virtual forum on expanding Taiwan’s participation on the global stage”, with particular focus on the WHO and how to share Taiwan’s successful model of fighting the coronavirus.
“Participants also discussed ongoing efforts to reinstate Taiwan’s observer status at the World Health Assembly, as well as other avenues for closer coordination between Taiwan and the World Health Organization,” it said.
The World Health Assembly is the WHO’s decision-making body.
Taiwan attended it as an observer from 2009-2016 when Taipei-Beijing relations warmed, but China blocked further participation after the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who China views as a separatist, charges she denies.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry expressed thanks to the United States on Friday for its “continued taking of concrete actions to support Taiwan’s participation in the WHO and other international organisations”.
In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the United States and Taiwan were both well aware that members of the WHO must be sovereign states, and accused Taiwan of seeking political capital from the outbreak.
“We hope they will not attempt to use this epidemic to engage in political manipulation,” she told a daily news briefing.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed a new law last month requiring increased support for Taiwan’s international role. China threatened unspecified retaliation in response.
Like most countries the United States has only unofficial ties with the island, but is its strongest backer on the world stage.
Taiwan has been far more successful than many of its neighbours keeping the virus in check thanks to early and stringent steps to control its spread. It has reported 348 cases and five deaths to date.
In its latest measure, Health Minister Chen Shih-chung said on Friday people who don’t wear face masks on public transport would face fines of up to T$15,000 (nearly $500).
36-hour exercise simulates countering enemy planes during wartime, report says
People’s Liberation Army placing increasing emphasis on airborne early-warning and control aircraft, observers say
The Eastern Theatre Command’s latest exercise follows joint air and naval drills near Taiwan in February. Photo: Handout
The Chinese military command responsible for patrols around Taiwan stepped up its drills by staging a long-endurance early-warning exercise in March, the official PLA Daily reported on Wednesday.
A warplane conducted tactical acrobatics, which were not specified, immediately after taking off, the report said. The move had not been common during previous drills, and was intended to simulate quickly countering enemy planes during wartime, the report quoted the plane’s captain Liu Yin as saying.
The plane performed reconnaissance, early-warning and surveillance work, tested airborne strikes, and an unspecified number of fighter jets in two groups staged a confrontation in a combat scenario.
The drill lasted for about 36 hours, the report said.
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Zi Kun, an officer from the division’s training unit, said the drill was a test for both pilots and equipment because it involved planning and coordination to meet actual combat requirements.
The exercise came after the Eastern Theatre Command in early February launched joint drills featuring naval and air forces near Taiwan and a combat-readiness drill in which its warplanes encircled the self-ruled island.
It also came after the United States sent EP-3E Aries electronic warfare and reconnaissance aircraft to fly near Kaohsiung, in southern Taiwan, and Hong Kong in late March.
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Beijing views the self-governed Taiwan as a renegade province that must be united with mainland China by force if necessary.
Experts said the drill was designed to enhance China’s intelligence-gathering capabilities to better monitor activities at sea and in the air.
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“The People’s Liberation Army’s Air Force used to rely only on ground-based early-warning radar. Only in the past two decades, it started to acquire airborne early-warning and control aircraft, which could allow the air force to extend their radar coverage beyond the limits of ground-based radars,” said Collin Koh, a research fellow from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
“The problem with ground-based radars is they are often limited by line of sight and Earth curvature, whereas the airborne early-warning assets can help to address these radar gaps and also have a better ability to pick up low-flying targets and those obscured by terrain,” Koh said.
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Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said that China did not have enough early-warning planes to support its expanding military ambitions and needed to maximise its capabilities through various exercises to act as a credible deterrent.
The command’s ongoing drills in recent months would be intended to send signals to the outside world on two fronts, according to Koh.
“The Eastern Theatre Command’s primary area of responsibility would cover Taiwan. And by extension, it also means targeting US forces concentrated not just in the nearby bases in Japan but also further afield beyond the First Island Chain, especially Guam,” he said.
not long ago – unless they have a child addicted to the wildly popular app, on which users make and share short, amusing videos.
It has grown explosively since its 2016 launch, with 800 million monthly active users now – 300 million of them outside China in places such as India (120 million) and the
(37 million). And many have no idea it is owned by a Chinese company, ByteDance.
The first Chinese app to mount a real global challenge to Facebook and Instagram, it is seen as one of the shiniest new weapons in the US-China technology war. And a boost, perhaps, to Chinese soft power.
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It experienced a growth spurt in 2019 that analysts predicted would slow a little this year. That, however, was before the coronavirus, which seems to be giving the app a bump, especially beyond its core teenage fan base.
As pandemic fears rise and millions are stuck indoors, major Hollywood celebrities such as Jennifer Lopez, 50, have taken to posting their own all-singing, all-dancing videos, which then go viral on other media platforms.
Even the World Health Organisation has jumped on the bandwagon, joining the app in late February to share public health advice.
The TikTok logo on a smartphone. Photo: Getty Images
But to some, the growth of TikTok is far from benign.
Privacy advocates and several US congressmen want to rein in the app over concerns it may censor and monitor content for the Chinese government, and be used for misinformation and election interference. This despite the fact that TikTok keeps its servers outside China and swears it will not hand over user data.
Are these fears justified – or fuelled by political and anticompetitive motives?
Thinkers such as Yuval Noah Harari warn that the coronavirus pandemic could be a watershed in the history of mass surveillance.
But Eric Harwit, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Hawaii, does not buy such arguments against TikTok, especially given that 60 per cent of its US users are aged 16 to 24.
“ByteDance has done a pretty good job of having a firewall between TikTok and the Chinese version of it, Douyin.
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“Also, many users in the US are teens and they’re not a particularly useful source of national security information.
“So I’d say the concerns are motivated more by a general fear of any kind of Chinese telecommunication application rather than actual attempts to siphon off valuable US intelligence information.
“And Facebook and other American companies have similar products,” Harwit points out. “US government officials will always want to protect American commercial interests.”
Sarah Cook, a China analyst for Freedom House – the US government-funded think tank – disagrees.
“We have concerns about how Facebook and Twitter deal with information affecting electoral politics, and that’s magnified if you’re talking about a Chinese company that now has a user base that rivals theirs.”
Chinese officials, she argues, have shown a willingness to censor and manipulate information well beyond their country’s borders – for instance, regarding the scale of the initial outbreak in Wuhan, an obfuscation that may have exacerbated its impact abroad.
“For those who think Chinese government censorship is only Chinese people’s problem, this pandemic shows how much that’s not the case.
“And even if it’s not happening right now with TikTok, the concern is that Chinese companies are beholden to their government, whether they want to be or not.
“I’m not saying block TikTok entirely,” she says. “It’s a question of looking at it in a democratic system and deciding on reasonable oversight and safeguards to protect users and information flows when that time comes.”
When it comes to expanding China’s cultural influence, though, neither Cook nor Harwit believes the app is especially effective.
Most people are oblivious to its Chinese origins, which the user experience does not reflect in any way. So there is no goodwill-generating soft power of the sort wielded by, say,
If anything, TikTok often promotes the increasingly homogenous, Western-leaning culture seen on many globally popular social media apps.
So says Morten Bay, a lecturer in digital and social media at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism.
“A semi-Western culture, with small variations of local culture, is becoming the norm on social media. And Chinese soft power is difficult to assert because there’s no value difference.”
And even if Chinese tech companies keep taking bigger bites of the Western market, he is sceptical of China’s “ability to leverage that for soft power in a geopolitical sense”.
“Because there is a very big apparatus pushing against China in that regard. As soon as TikTok started gaining traction in the US, people came out against it, trying to make everyone aware of the privacy and geopolitical issues.
The #KaunsiBadiBaatHai campaign on TikTok aims to raise awareness about women’s safety issues in India. Image: TikTok
“So China faces a lot of resistance,” Bay concludes. “And I’m not sure a social media platform on its own can do much about that.”
Still, if you had to back a horse in this race, TikTok would be it, says Zhang Mengmeng.
When she and her colleagues from global industry analysis firm Counterpoint Research visited the company, they were impressed by its research and development capabilities.
“Because they’re a very young company, their pace for incubating new projects is a lot faster, especially compared to successful but older internet companies in China which have been around for 15 to 20 years.
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“They have lots of little start-up projects within the company and their organisational structure is very flat – it doesn’t matter what your age is, if you have a good idea, you get promoted very quickly.”
TikTok’s rise is also emblematic of a broader role reversal in the US-China tech war, she believes.
“Before, the US was more advanced in terms of internet development and China seemed to just copy its new ideas. Now, this is reversing. There are so many people in China using the internet that start-ups there can test ideas very easily.
“So now it seems like a lot of US companies are trying to see what ideas are coming out of China.” ■
Education ministry says they will be held a month later than planned – on July 7 and 8 – when there is ‘a lower risk’ for students and staff
It will also give them more time to prepare after months of online learning due to school closures
Students were back in class at the Xian Middle School in Shaanxi province on Monday after a nationwide closure because of the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Xinhua
China’s all-important annual college entrance exams have been postponed by a month because of the coronavirus crisis – the first time they have been disrupted since the Cultural Revolution.
Universities in mainland China base enrolments solely on the results of the gruelling examinations, known as the gaokao, and they are seen as tests that can make or break a student’s future.
This year, they will be held on July 7 and 8 for most of the country – a month later than planned, the Ministry of Education announced on Tuesday.
A date has not yet been set for the capital Beijing or for Hubei, the province worst-hit by the virus. The ministry said authorities in the two places would decide later when they would hold the gaokao, based on their public health situations.
Wang Hui, a ministry official who handles the university sector, said 10.71 million students were expected to sit the exams this summer.
He said the ministry decided to postpone this year’s gaokao to put students’ “health and fairness first”.
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Wang said although the spread of the coronavirus had slowed to almost a halt in the mainland, there was still a risk of isolated cases and localised outbreaks. China’s focus now is preventing imported cases among people who arrive in the country from overseas.
“[Disease control and] prevention experts suggest that if the gaokao is postponed for a month, there will be a lower risk from … the epidemic,” Wang said.
“We must adopt the most appropriate and the least risky plan in order to protect the safety and health of the students as well as the staff involved in the tests.”
The ministry official said the delay was also about fairness, by giving students more time to study at school and prepare for the exams.
“We hope to reduce the impact of the epidemic on students, especially those from rural and poverty-stricken regions, as much as possible,” Wang said.
“Third-year high school students have had to stay home [because of the coronavirus outbreak] so their preparation for the gaokao has been affected,” he said. “The internet [access] divide between urban and rural areas means some students in rural and poorer regions have been more affected by this epidemic.”
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Beijing imposed a nationwide school closure after the Lunar New Year holiday in late January as the pneumonia-like illness rapidly spread. Schools were told to postpone the new term that was due to start in mid- or late February, meaning millions of students – from primary school to university – had to turn to online learning. Several provinces began reopening schools this month and more are set to follow in early to mid-April, but authorities in Beijing and Guangdong have yet to set a date for classes to resume.
The last time the gaokao was disrupted was during the Cultural Revolution, a decade of political and social turmoil that ended in 1976. It was cancelled during this time and since it resumed in 1979 until 2002 it has been held nearly every year from July 7 to 9. From 2003, the ministry moved the gaokao forward to June 7 and 8 to avoid hot weather and potential natural disasters. The severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak (Sars) in 2002-03 did not delay the exams.
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According to an online survey conducted by microblogging website Sina Weibo on Tuesday, some 537,000 users said they were “shocked” by the ministry’s decision and were “experiencing history”.
About 282,000 people said it was a good thing for students since it gave them more time to prepare for the exams. But it was bad news for another 153,000 users, who said they would have to endure an extra month of exhausting preparation.
Volume of fuel extracted from gas hydrates is a new world record, natural resources ministry says
Month-long trial also sets a ‘solid technical foundation for commercial exploitation’, it says
China conducted its first operation to extract natural gas from gas hydrates in the South China Sea in 2017. Photo: Reuters
China said on Thursday it extracted 861,400 cubic metres of natural gas from gas hydrates found in the South China Sea during a month-long trial that ended last week.
The production process, which ran from February 17 to March 18, also set two world records: one for the largest total volume extracted and another for the most produced – 287,000 cubic metres – on a single day, the Ministry of Natural Resources said on its website.
The gas was extracted from an area in the north of the disputed waterway, and from a depth of about 1,225 metres, it said.
The success of the latest trial set a “solid technical foundation for commercial exploitation”, the ministry said, adding that China was the first country in the world to exploit gas hydrates using a horizontal well-drilling technique.
Also known as flammable ice, gas hydrates are icelike solids composed mostly of methane. According to figures from the US Department of Energy, one cubic metre of gas hydrate releases 164 cubic metres of conventional natural gas once extracted.
The South China Sea test coincided with sharp movements in global oil and gas prices. China, which is the world’s largest oil and gas importer, has been keen to identify alternative fuel sources, including gas hydrates, to strengthen its energy security.
The official Economic Daily reported in 2017 that China’s reserves of flammable ice were equivalent to about 100 billion tonnes of oil, of which 80 billion tonnes were in the South China Sea.
Yang Fuqiang, a senior energy adviser at the Beijing office of the National Resources Defence Council, an international environmental advocacy group, said that natural gas consumption in China was relatively low compared with that of other countries.
“The demand for natural gas is large and the prospect is promising, but it’s hard to say when China will have commercial development of flammable ice,” he said.
While the government has set a target for natural gas to account for 10 per cent of China’s annual energy consumption by the end of this year, in 2019, the figure was just 8.3 per cent.
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Fan Xiao, chief engineer with the Sichuan Geology and Mineral Bureau, said that compared to conventional fuels like oil and gas, flammable ice was still too costly to extract to make its widespread use commercially viable.
“It is an important resource, but exploiting it in a sustainable, economically viable way is still some way off,” he said.
There were also environmental concerns, such as methane leaking during the exploitation process, which increased greenhouse gas emissions, he said.
Yang agreed, saying there would be leakage of methane during both mining and transport.
“If the leakage exceeds 5 per cent of the total, it will offset its contribution to carbon reduction,” he said.
Despite PMI data showing a return to growth in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, China’s economic activity is still far from normal
Headwinds include the threat of global recession, a second wave of coronavirus infections and a property slump, analysts warn
China’s economy has shown signs of recovery after a dismal start to the year. Photo: Xinhua
China’s economy showed signs of a recovery in March after a nationwide lockdown paralysed business in February, but analysts warned that it is not yet out of the woods.
Despite stronger-than-expected government data released on Tuesday, a series of threats lying ahead could derail China’s fragile recovery, including a second wave of infections, a global recession, worsening deflation due to plunging oil prices and a potentially sharp fall in the property market.
“While the lowest point is behind us, it’s not the time to celebrate,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Bank.
For now, March’s figures suggest that business conditions are improving considerably, as more people are able to return to work and coronavirus cases continue to fall.
While the lowest point is behind us, it’s not the time to celebrateLarry Hu
The official purchasing managers’ index (PMIs) surveys showed that both the manufacturing and services sectors returned to growth in March, with many factories and retailers reopening as mainland authorities got the pandemic under control.
It will be welcome news for Beijing after a series of economic data plunged to all-time lows in January and February – including February’s PMIs, which are viewed as leading indicators of the state of the economy for the month ahead.
The manufacturing PMI, a survey of sentiment among factory owners, bounced back to 52.0 in March from 35.7 in February, which was an all-time low by some distance.
China’s non-manufacturing PMI – including both the services and construction sectors – was even weaker in February at 29.6, but its recovery to 52.3 was more marked.
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A number above 50 signifies growth in sector activity, while a number below indicates contraction.
Both indices were significantly higher than expected and produced the V-shaped recovery in sentiment that policymakers had been so desperately pursuing.
But analysts warned that this may be short-lived as virus containment measures are set to sap demand across the globe, hitting China’s exports hard.
This was perhaps reflected in the fact that while many key components of the PMIs returned to growth in March, new export orders remained negative at 46.4.
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“We would like to emphasise that the 52 reading [for manufacturing PMI] actually means a weak business resumption,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura.
“We view the jump in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March as one-off gains from the very low comparison bases in February.”
The dramatic collapse of the economy in the second month of the year meant March’s economic data was always likely to show a positive spike, with PMIs highly sensitive to short-term fluctuations in business conditions due to the way they are collated. Researchers simply ask respondents if things are better or worse than they were the previous month.
“This does not mean output is now back to its pre-virus trend,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, in a note. “Instead, it simply suggests that economic activity improved modestly relative to February’s dismal showing, but remains well below pre-virus levels. This is consistent with what the daily activity indicators show.”
It simply suggests that economic activity improved modestly relative to February’s dismal showing, but remains well below pre-virus levelsJulian Evans-Pritchard
Even the Chinese government urged caution against reading too much into the figures.
“We cannot say China’s economy has fully returned to normal levels based on a single month. We need to continue observing changes in the following months,” said a National Bureau of Statistics spokesman, adding that 96.6 per cent of large and medium-sized businesses were back to work as of March 25.
The official PMI survey, which is produced by the National Bureau of Statistics, is weighted more towards larger companies, including state-owned firms that have been the focus of government efforts to review production.
The Caixin-Markit manufacturing PMI data set to be published on Wednesday is weighted more towards smaller, private-sector firms and could show a less buoyant result given their struggles to resume operations.
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Officials in Beijing have been vocal in recent days about their concerns of a possible
. At a press conference in the capital on Monday, vice-minister of industry and information technology Xin Guobin said that small businesses and exporters might “struggle to survive” in the months ahead, due to global economic turbulence.
That was reflected in a new study by investment firm Fidelity International that showed while more than half of restaurants in China have reopened, daily turnover was 40 to 50 per cent below levels seen before the outbreak. Hotel occupancy figures, meanwhile, remain in single digits.
“Expect further slack in quarters three and four, which means the authorities will have to postpone their target to double gross domestic product growth levels to the first half of 2021,” said Carlos Casanova, Asia-Pacific economist at insurer Coface.
visited the industrial powerhouse of Zhejiang province on Sunday in a move state media described as a clear message the country was ready to get the economy back on track amid the “new normal” of dealing with the coronavirus.
The trip, to Ningbo – one of the world’s busiest ports and a trade hub for eastern China – was Xi’s first outside Beijing since he visited Wuhan, the initial epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak, earlier in the month.
As well as a visiting the port, he spoke to workers at an industrial zone for car part manufacturers, where he learned about the latest efforts to restart production, Xinhua said in a brief report.
The visit came after two months of almost total lockdown in many parts of the country that disrupted businesses, transport and people’s daily lives, and ground the economy to a near standstill.
While local transmissions of the coronavirus in China appear to be under control, Beijing has implemented strict measures to prevent imported cases, including slashing international flights and banning most foreigners from entering the country.
In a separate report, Xinhua said Xi’s visit sent “a clear message” that China was resuming its industrial production and social activities, and described the fight against the coronavirus as the “new normal”.
Reviving the economy and battling a deadly disease were Xi’s “two tough battles”, it said.
Xi’s choice of destination was a clear message that restarting the economy is a top priority. Photo: Xinhua
Zhejiang is something of a power base for Xi, who spent nearly five years there during his climb through the ranks of the Communist Party.
One of the country’s biggest trading hubs, the province generated 3 trillion yuan (US$423.2 billion) in foreign trade last year, or more than 13 per cent of the national total, according to official figures.
“It’s a highly export-oriented economy … which has made it crucial not only to China’s development plan but also to safeguarding the stability of the global supply chain,” Xinhua said.
Observers said Xi’s visit was evidence of Beijing’s determination to get the economy back up and running as soon as possible.
Zhao Xijun, an economics professor at Renmin University, said Ningbo was a key part of the export economy and a base for many local and foreign entrepreneurs.
“It is a clear signal that China, after getting domestic infections under control, is now prioritising economic growth,” he said.
“It also shows the country will keep developing its economy and opening up its markets.”
But hopes of a quick recovery for the Chinese economy have been dashed by the spread of the coronavirus across Europe and the United States, causing a sharp decline in demand for Chinese goods.
Xi spent five years in Zhejiang while climbing the ranks of the Communist Party. Photo: Xinhua
In a meeting on Friday, the Communist Party’s Politburo said it would step up macroeconomic policy adjustments and pursue a more proactive fiscal policy while optimising measures to control the coronavirus to speed up the restoration of production, doing whatever it could to “minimise the losses caused by the epidemic”.
“China has successfully reopened much of its economy from the extremes of the coronavirus lockdown, but now faces a new problem: an impending collapse in demand for its exports as its customers go into lockdowns of their own,” Gavekal Dragnomics said in a research report.
“That shock to industry and manufacturing employment means that China will not enjoy the hoped-for V-shaped recovery in growth.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
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