Archive for ‘China’

28/04/2020

Looking beyond the coronavirus, military powers jostle for dominance in Indo-Pacific region

  • Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are settings for China and the US to assert influence and defiance
  • Analysts warn costly missteps and miscalculations are possible amid rift
Illustration: Henry Wong
Illustration: Henry Wong

This is the fourth in a series exploring the global backlash that China may face as a result of its actions and rhetoric during the coronavirus pandemic. This story examines the outlook from a military viewpoint, including relations in the South China Sea, with China’s neighbours and with the United States.

As the USS Barry, one of the US’ most advanced destroyers, sailed through the Taiwan Strait last Thursday, an officer on board posted a message on Facebook: “They don’t call us the Finest Forward Deployed Destroyer for nothing! Your Bulldogs always have the watch – together, we ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific!”

Based in Yokosuka, Japan, the guided-missile destroyer was no stranger to the sensitive channel separating Taiwan and mainland China. In fact, this was its second passage through the 180km [112-mile]-wide waterway – defined as part of the South China Sea under international protocol – this month.

As the Covid-19 global health crisis continues to rage around the world, infecting more than 3 million people and causing more than 210,000 deaths, military manoeuvres are being analysed to see if the pandemic has changed the balance of force in the region.

American warships were just some of the frequent naval visitors to the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese military has also made its presence felt. The Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier paraded through the waterway with its strike group just one day before the USS Barry arrived.
And then on Tuesday, China’s Southern Theatre Command, which oversees the South China Sea, issued a stern warning against the “intrusion” of the USS Barry into the surrounding waters of the Paracel Islands. China calls them the Xisha Islands and Vietnam calls them the Hoang Sa Islands.

“These provocative acts by the US side … seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security interests, deliberately increased regional security risks and they could easily trigger unexpected incidents,” a spokesman of the command said.

The frequency of such tours has raised concerns among military observers and analysts that these exercises could lead to miscalculation as different countries use their militaries to jostle for greater influence or rattle the sabre amid the pandemic.

“Adversaries who think now is the time to challenge the #USA: you’re dangerously wrong,” United States Secretary of Defence Mark Esper tweeted in mid-April.

And on Wednesday last week he tweeted: “Do not test our resolve. Our service members continue to demonstrate why the American people call on the US military during the most trying times.”

The Covid-19 pandemic has plunged already strained

China-US relations

into a deepening rift as officials from both sides engage in a blame game about delays that have allowed the contagious disease to spread.

Experts are now looking at how the pandemic will affect other aspects of China’s international relations.

Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University in eastern China, expressed worry that Beijing and Washington had grown even further apart because of the pandemic.

“China and the US are supposed to work together to battle this world-sweeping deadly contagion, but what worries me most is that the geopolitical strategic competition and differences between the two countries have widened because of the pandemic,” he said.

Zhu said Washington’s growing cosiness with Taipei had also alarmed Beijing.

While Taiwan was a key security issue in the region, analysts warned that manoeuvring by nations had increased the risk of turning the Indo-Pacific area into a tinderbox.
This month, the US Navy’s amphibious assault ship and a Japanese navy Murasame-class destroyer conducted three-day bilateral communications exercises and division tactics in the Philippine Sea and the East China Sea. The East China Sea is the site of territory disputes between Beijing and Tokyo over the

Diaoyu Islands, or Senkaku Islands

as they are called in Japanese.

The joint drills came 10 days after a collision between a Japanese destroyer and a Chinese fishing vessel in the East China Sea, causing a hole in the destroyer. No one was hurt, according to the Japanese defence ministry.

On Tuesday last week, another US amphibious assault ship and a guided-missile cruiser joined with an Australian frigate.

They entered the contested waters off Malaysia, where a Chinese government survey vessel, the Haiyang Dizhi 8, has been operating close to a drill ship under contract to the Malaysian state oil company, Petronas, according to a report from Reuters citing regional security sources.

“The show of force of the US and Australian warships in the South China Sea was aimed at warning China: ‘The pandemic will not give you any opportunity to change the current balance of power [in the region]’,” Zhu said.

“And [it also means to] tell Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries that no matter how the pandemic develops, the US is still Big Brother in the region,” he added.

The South China Sea remains one of the biggest stress points in Asia. Beijing claims almost all of the area but has conflicting claims with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei. The conflict has remained unresolved for decades and has now become another flash point with the US.
Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a former deputy minister on Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which handles the island’s ties with the mainland, said China and the US were tangled in a bitter competition.
“In comparative terms, the US presence has been a response to increased People’s Republic of China’s ‘far sea navigation training’ with its newly acquired air and naval assets,” Huang said, referring to Beijing’s expanded military clout.
The US Navy Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill, front, and Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry in the South China Sea on April 18. Photo: US Navy
The US Navy Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill, front, and Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Barry in the South China Sea on April 18. Photo: US Navy
“The US wants to reassure [its allies of] its commitment to the security and stability in the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the larger Indo-Pacific region.

“[Chinese President] Xi Jinping has said that the vast Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and the US. However the PRC’s build-up in the South China Sea and training exercises have, in the eyes of Americans, threatened the freedom of navigation and challenged the US predominance in maritime Asia.”

Drew Thompson, a former US defence official and now a senior research fellow at National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, wrote in a recent paper that China under Xi’s leadership has taken a more aggressive stance in dealing with its neighbours.

“Xi Jinping’s rise to power has heralded a new foreign policy that is more assertive and uncompromising toward China’s neighbours, the US and the rest of the world,” he wrote.

He warned that Xi’s assertiveness would put China’s diplomatic and defence policies at higher risk, especially given Beijing’s determination to resolve the Taiwan problem.

“The pandemic does not fundamentally change the military or strategic balance across the Taiwan Strait but it potentially increases the possibility of miscalculation if Beijing thinks its handling of the pandemic gives it a military advantage,” Thompson told the South China Morning Post.

Last week, the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command, which covers China’s eastern seaboard, published four belligerent articles emphasising the urgency for the Chinese military to strengthen its combat readiness as the country faced challenges at home and abroad during the pandemic and that the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) must play a “pivotal role in safeguarding China’s national interests”.
Separately, an analysis published in mid-April said that following the Covid-19 pandemic, the voice of “unifying Taiwan by force” had become “louder and louder” on the mainland. It was published on a media website affiliated with the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which oversees Beijing’s policies on the island.
Citing opinions by retired PLA generals, the analysis said the US would not go to war with China over Taiwan, other than providing the island with intelligence and weapons.

But Collin Koh, a research fellow of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, cautioned that such an assumption was risky.

“It’s unwise to underestimate the resolve of the Trump administration, given that in recent times it’s been putting more focus on enhancing strategic ties with Taiwan, having seen the island as a crucial element to its Indo-Pacific strategy,” Koh said.

“US credibility is at stake if it’s shown to be unwilling to defend its allies.”

Michael Jones, former chief of staff of US Central Command, was quoted by the Military Times, a US-based military news website, saying it had become imperative for US diplomats to reach out abroad and explain Washington’s intention to avoid mistakes and misunderstandings.

“Covid-19 merely is a factor that can lead to miscalculation,” Jones was quoted as saying. “If they [US adversaries] were to assume this is one more distraction that would keep the US from responding to an attack or challenge, it could add to the possibility of miscalculation.”

Source: SCMP

28/04/2020

China discounts, cheaper iPhone to cushion Apple from virus blow to demand

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) discounts on the iPhone 11 in China and the release of a new low-price SE model have put the company in a better position than rivals to weather a coronavirus-related plunge in global smartphone demand.

While China, which accounts for roughly 15% of Apple’s revenue, appears to be a rare bright spot, investors will be keen to get a picture of global demand when the Cupertino, California-headquartered company reports second-quarter results on Thursday.

The iPhone maker has shut retail stores in the United States and Europe following the COVID-19 outbreak, and China is the only major market where it has been able to reopen all shops.

Consumer spending is expected to be muted as the pandemic has crippled economies and Apple, the world’s second-most valuable tech company, is better armed with the launch of its new price-conscious iPhone model, analysts said.

“Apple is better positioned than most to experience a rapid recovery in a post COVID world,” Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note. “We see demand as pushed out, not canceled.”

He added that the launch of the $399 iPhone SE suggested that Apple’s supply chain was getting back on its feet after weeks of shutdown earlier this year.

Analysts expect Apple to report a 6% drop in revenue and an 11% fall in net income in its fiscal second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.

On the other hand, Chinese brands such as Oppo and Vivo who have steadily moved to offer high-end models to challenge iPhones, stand to lose marketshare as bargain hunters choose Apple.

Earlier this month, several online retailers in China slashed prices of the iPhone 11 by as much as 18% – a tactic Apple has used in the past to boost demand. And while initial social media reaction to the new iPhone SE was muted, analysts said they were seeing a pick up in demand.

The cheaper iPhone SE could tempt iPhone owners to opt for a newer device, something they might have otherwise delayed in a weak economy, said Nicole Peng, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Canalys.

“People want to avoid uncertainty in a downturn,” she said. “Having a brand like Apple that can showcase quality and make people less worried about breakdowns or after-sales service can bring in buyers.”

CHEAP IS GOOD

Early data suggests that the Chinese smartphone market is recovering rapidly in the aftermath of the virus, and Apple has emerged relatively unscathed.

Sales of iPhones in China jumped 21% last month from a year earlier and more than three fold from February, government data showed, meaning March-quarter sales in the country were likely to have slipped just 1%.

To be sure, a recovery in Chinese demand won’t offset sales lost in the United States and Europe. And the company is yet to launch a smartphone enabled with 5G wireless technology like those offered by Asian rivals, a disadvantage for Apple so far.

But those same expensive 5G models may not sell well in the current climate of frugality, analysts said.

“If there are no massive subsidies (in China), I doubt there will be many smartphone users who will be eager to upgrade to 5G,” said Linda Sui, who tracks the smartphone sector at research firm Strategy Analytics.

Sui expects iPhone shipments in 2020 to be down 2 percentage points at the most, versus double digit declines at Chinese firms.

Apple also has revenue from its services business to fall back on. It has leveraged its large iPhone customer base to boost services revenue from music, apps, gaming and video.

“Apple’s Services segment should remain resilient in today’s work-from-home environment, thereby demonstrating the durability of Apple’s model,” Cowen analyst Krish Sankar said.

Source: Reuters

28/04/2020

New cargo train services launched between China, SCO countries

QINGDAO, April 27 (Xinhua) — New cargo train services have been launched between east China’s Shandong Province and countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

A train carrying 45 containers departed Monday from the intermodal transportation center of the demonstration zone for China-SCO local economic and trade cooperation in the city of Qingdao, according to the demonstration zone.

The train, loaded with excavators and land levelers worth a total of 20 million yuan (2.8 million U.S. dollars), is expected to arrive at Almaty, Kazakhstan, in eight days.

With the intermodal transportation center in Qingdao as the cargo distribution center, the monthly train services will deliver cargo to more than 30 cities of SCO countries, including Tashkent, Minsk and Ulan Bator.

Source: Xinhua

28/04/2020

Coronavirus: China’s capital city struggles to get back to normal amid continued outbreak worries

  • Beijing’s Chaoyang district remains the last high-risk area in China, with virus preventive measures continuing to impact on travel and shopping plans
  • China faces the dilemma of preventing a re-emerge of the pandemic, while also pushing to get its economy back to normal
China’s continued pandemic prevention measures, coupled with still hesitant consumer demand, will inevitably lead to persistent limitations on the nation’s economic recovery, analysts said. Photo: Bloomberg
China’s continued pandemic prevention measures, coupled with still hesitant consumer demand, will inevitably lead to persistent limitations on the nation’s economic recovery, analysts said. Photo: Bloomberg

After nearly three months of being quarantined by herself in Beijing, Mary Zhao was looking forward to the upcoming long weekend at the start of May to be able to finally reunite with her parents.

But Zhao was forced to abandon her plan for the Labour Day holidays as Beijing’s upmarket Chaoyang district, where she lives, remains the only high-risk zone for coronavirus in the entire country.

If she travelled the five hours by car, or two hours via bullet train, to the neighbouring Hebei province, she would first have to undergo a 14-day quarantine before seeing her parents. Her parents would also have the same two week quarantine to look forward to once they returned home if they came to visit their daughter in Beijing.

These strict controls to prevent a re-emergence of the coronavirus outbreak are making a return to normal life impossible for many, and mean the final economic and social cost

 from China’s draconian preventive measures could be much larger than expected.
Wuhan declares ‘victory’ as central Chinese city’s last Covid-19 patients leave hospital
It underscores the dilemma facing China’s leaders on how to balance the need to

restart the economy

and to avoid a fresh outbreak. On the surface, China may be able to declare victory as even Wuhan, the city where the virus was first detected, announced that the last Covid-19 patient had left hospital on Sunday. But fears of a renewed outbreak have kept the country’s cinemas and most schools closed, with travel between provinces discouraged.

China’s national borders also remain largely closed, with flights being cut to a minimum, and a mandatory 14-day quarantine for every arrival. In the number of places where new cases have been reported, quarantine requirements have been tightened, including Harbin and a few other cities near the border with Russia.
Chaoyang, the home to one of Beijing’s main business districts and most foreign embassies, changed its risk rating to high from low in the middle of April after three new cases were reported, dealing a fresh blow to the district’s

struggling businesses,

and forcing many of the 3.5 million residents to cancel their travel plans.

On the outskirts of Beijing, near Beijing Capital International Airport, returning migrant workers to Picun village were ordered to stop at entrance and could only be escorted inside by their landlord, with many villages and residential compounds remaining closed to outsiders.

In the high-end shopping district of Guomao, some shops also remain closed as there are few potential customers, while over in the popular Sanlitun area, metal barriers restrict access and temperature checkpoints are still required.

The landmark Apple Store in the popular Taikoo shopping centre is open, but with limited customers allowed inside, there are long queues outside. Customers are required to scan a QR code to check their movements over the last few days before entering.

Coronavirus: More schools reopen in China for students preparing for university entrance exams
“Why do I have to spend 20 minutes just to get into the Apple Store? The sun has almost melted me down,” one visitor complained to the security guards at the front of the shop.

China’s continued pandemic prevention measures, coupled with still hesitant consumer demand, will inevitably lead to persistent limitations on the nation’s economic recovery, analysts said.

Ernai Cui, an economist at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, said on Monday that China’s cautious approach to lifting restrictions “points to a weak second quarter for consumer services”, adding additional pressure to the economic recovery.Mao Zhenhua, a researcher at the China Institute of Economics at Renmin University, said China’s preventive measures will inevitably be a drag on production, employment and exports.

Source: SCMP

28/04/2020

China’s April factory activity seen expanding as lockdowns ease – Reuters poll

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.

While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.

That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.

“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”

The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.

Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.

That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.

A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.

Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.

Source: Reuters

27/04/2020

Chinese self-driving truck startup Inceptio raises $100 million – sources

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s Inceptio Technology, a startup developing self-driving trucks, has raised $100 million in its latest funding round from logistics firm GLP, its key strategic investor G7 and other investors, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The proceeds from its series A funding round will be used to further develop its technologies and to start commercial trials, said the sources, who declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

The company, which aims to operate a freight network with autonomous driving trucks in China from 2022, has partnerships with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd (600006.SS), Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (3808.HK) and Foton (600166.SS).

The two-year-old firm is developing autonomous driving software and an in-car computing system while the truckmakers are responsible for the vehicles’ platforms.

Inceptio declined to comment. G7 and Singapore-based GLP did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Inceptio focuses on level 3 and 4 technologies. A level 3 vehicle will enable drivers to turn their attention away from driving but they still need to take over if the car encounters a problem, while with level 4 technologies, there is no human intervention in most circumstances.

The trucking industry is expected to an earlier adopter of autonomous driving technology compared to passenger vehicle makers as driving on highways is more predictable than on busy city streets.

German automaker Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and U.S. postal giant United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N) have invested in self-driving trucks.

Source: Reuters

27/04/2020

China extends small businesses tax exemptions by four year

BEIJING, April 26 (Xinhua) — China announced Sunday to extend tax exemptions by an additional four years to further improve the inclusive finance service for smaller businesses.

The tax exemptions, which expired at the end of last year, will be extended to Dec. 31, 2023, according to a statement jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration.

In order to boost policy support and encourage financial institutions to step up financial services, Chinese authorities decided in 2017 that financial institutions will be exempt from value-added taxes (VAT) on income from interests for loans to small and micro-sized businesses and individually-owned businesses.

The joint statement also said the VAT, which was already collected but eligible to be waived, can be deducted in subsequent months or refunded.

Source: Xinhua

27/04/2020

South Korean officials call for caution amid reports that North Korean leader Kim is ill

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean officials are calling for caution amid reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be ill or is being isolated because of coronavirus concerns, emphasising that they have detected no unusual movements in North Korea.

At a closed door forum on Sunday, South Korea’s Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul, who oversees engagement with the North, said the government has the intelligence capabilities to say with confidence that there was no indications of anything unusual.

Rumours and speculation over the North Korean leader’s health began after he made no public appearance at a key state holiday on April 15, and has since remained out of sight.

South Korea media last week reported that Kim may have undergone cardiovascular surgery or was in isolation to avoid exposure to the new coronavirus.

Unification minister Kim cast doubt on the report of surgery, arguing that the hospital mentioned did not have the capabilities for such an operation.

Still, Yoon Sang-hyun, chairman of the foreign and unification committee in South Korea’s National Assembly, told a gathering of experts on Monday that Kim Jong Un’s absence from the public eye suggests “he has not been working as normally”.

“There has not been any report showing he’s making policy decisions as usual since April 11, which leads us to assume that he is either sick or being isolated because of coronavirus concerns,” Yoon said.

North Korea has said it has no confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, but some international experts have cast doubts on that claim.

On Monday, North Korean state media once again showed no new photos of Kim nor reported on his whereabouts.

However, they did carry reports that he had sent a message of gratitude to workers building a tourist resort in Wonsan, an area where some South Korean media reports have said Kim may be staying.

“Our government position is firm,” Moon Chung-in, the top foreign policy adviser to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, said in comments to news outlets in the United States.

“Kim Jong Un is alive and well. He has been staying in the Wonsan area since April 13. No suspicious movements have so far been detected.”

Satellite images from last week showed a special train possibly belonging to Kim at Wonsan, lending weight to those reports, according to 38 North, a Washington-based North Korea monitoring project.

Though the group said it was probably the North Korean leader’s personal train, Reuters has not been able to confirm that independently, or whether he was in Wonsan.

A spokeswoman for the Unification Ministry said on Monday she had nothing to confirm when asked about reports that Kim was in Wonsan.

Last week China dispatched a team to North Korea including medical experts to advise on Kim Jong Un, according to three people familiar with the situation.

Reuters was unable to immediately determine what the trip by the Chinese team signalled in terms of Kim’s health.

On Friday a South Korean source told Reuters their intelligence was that Kim Jong Un was alive and would likely make an appearance soon.

Experts have cautioned that Kim has disappeared from state media coverage before, and that gathering accurate information in North Korea is notoriously difficult.

North Korea’s state media last reported on Kim’s whereabouts when he presided over a meeting on April 11.

Kim, believed to be 36, vanished from state media for more than a month in 2014 and North Korean state TV later showed him walking with a limp.

Source: Reuters

26/04/2020

China’s smog-prone Hebei saw pollution fall 15% from October-March

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s smog-prone northern province of Hebei met its air quality targets by a big margin over the winter after concerted efforts to tackle emissions, a local official said on Sunday, without mentioning coronavirus-related factory shutdowns.

Average PM2.5 concentrations over the October-March period dropped 15% from a year earlier to 61 micrograms per cubic metre, while sulphur dioxide also fell by a third, said He Litao, vice-head of the provincial environmental bureau.

Most experts have attributed the significant decline in air pollution throughout China in the first quarter to the coronavirus outbreak and tough containment measures, which saw cities and entire  provinces locked down and sharply reduced traffic and industrial activity throughout the country.

With millions staying at home, concentrations of lung-damaging PM2.5 particles fell by nearly 15% in more than 300 Chinese cities in the first three months of 2020.

Shanghai saw emissions fall by nearly 20% in the first quarter, while in Wuhan, where the pandemic originated, monthly averages dropped more than a third compared to last year.

However, He of the Hebei environmental bureau attributed the local decline in pollution to the “conscientious implementation” of government decisions even in the face of unfavourable weather conditions.

According to a winter action plan published last year, 10 cities in Hebei were expected to cut lung-damaging small particles known as PM2.5 by 1%-6% compared to the previous year.

Despite the decline, average PM2.5 was still much higher than China’s official standard of 35 micrograms, and the recommended World Health Organization level of 10 micrograms.

Source: Reuters

Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India