Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Within a week of reopening, India has seen a sharp spike in cases
India is roaring – rather than inching – back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC’s Aparna Alluri finds out why.
On Saturday, India’s government announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.
This was expected – the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hotels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.
But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone – the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Fast food chains like McDonald’s have begun reopening outlets in parts of India.
So, why the rush to reopen?
The lockdown is simply unaffordable
“It’s certainly time to lift the lockdown,” says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.
“Beyond a point, it’s hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long – economically, socially and psychologically.”
From day one, India’s lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business – from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India’s growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.
Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be “devastating”.
The opinion is shared by global consultant Mckinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India’s economy must be “managed alongside persistent infection risks”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption As restrictions ease, Indians are slowly getting used to the new normal
“The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and systems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes],” says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. “That objective, to a large extent, has been met.”
In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of protective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the government has bought as much time as possible.
“We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy,” Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.
The silver lining
For weeks, India’s relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates explain the former, but not the latter.
In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown – millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.
Perhaps the choice – between a virus that didn’t appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was – seemed obvious to the government.
But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. “I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms,” Dr Devadasan says.
The hope – which is also encouraging the government to reopen – is that most of India’s undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.
The government, for instance, has been touting India’s mortality rate as a silver lining – at nearly 3%, it’s among the lowest in the world.
But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn’t have, a robust system for recording deaths – in his view, the government is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indians are venturing out again but it’s unclear how many of them are asymptomatic.
And, he says, “what we must aim for is flattening the mortality curve, not necessarily the epidemic curve”.
Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the “government realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns”.
A shift in strategy
So is the government gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?
While Dr Menon believes the lockdown was well-timed, he says it was too focused on cases coming from abroad.
“There was a hope that by controlling that, we could prevent epidemic spread, but how effective was our screening [at airports]?”
Now, he adds, is the time for “localised lockdowns”.
Media caption Coronavirus: Death and despair for migrants on Indian roads
The federal government has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the virus’ progression varies wildly across India.
Maharashtra alone accounts for more than a third of India’s active cases. Add Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi, and that makes up 67% of the national total.
But other states – such as Bihar – are already seeing a sharp uptick as migrant workers return home.
“Initially, most of your cases were in the cities,” Dr Devadasan says. “But we kept the migrant workers in cities and didn’t allow them to go home. Now, we are sending them back. We have facilitated transporting the virus from urban areas to rural areas.”
While the government has said how many infections have been avoided – up to 300,000 – and lives saved – up to 71,000 – by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.
There is only advice: The day the government began to ease restrictions, Mr Kejriwal tweeted, urging people to “follow discipline and control the coronavirus disease” as it was their “responsibility”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Social distancing will prove to be India’s biggest post-lockdown challenge
Because the alternative – of curfews and constant policing – is unsustainable.
“My worry is more the circumstances of people – it’s not as though they have an option to practise social distancing,” Dr Menon says.
And they don’t – not in joint family homes or one-room hovels packed together in slums, not in crowded markets or busy streets where jostling is second nature, or in temples, mosques, weddings or religious processions where more is always merrier.
The overwhelming message is that the virus is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it – and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.
Image copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAUImage caption The area has become a hotspot in part because of a road India has built
The armies of the world’s two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.
Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.
The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.
The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi – this is not a routine incursion.
“The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo,” says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army.
China takes a different view, saying it’s India which has changed facts on the ground.
Reports in the Indian media said soldiers from the two sides clashed on at least two occasions in Ladakh. Stand-offs are reported in at least three locations: the Galwan valley; Hot Springs; and Pangong lake to the south.
India and China share a border more than 3,440km (2,100 miles) long and have overlapping territorial claims. Their border patrols often bump into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles but both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades.
Their armies – two of the world’s largest – come face to face at many points. The poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) separates the two sides. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line separating soldiers can shift and they often come close to confrontation.
The current military tension is not limited to Ladakh. Soldiers from the two sides are also eyeball-to-eyeball in Naku La, on the border between China and the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim. Earlier this month they reportedly came to blows.
And there’s a row over a new map put out by Nepal, too, which accuses India of encroaching on its territory by building a road connecting with China.
Why are tensions rising now?
There are several reasons – but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.
“The traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh,” Mr Shukla says.
India’s decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.
Image copyright AFPImage caption There have been protests in Nepal against Indi’s new road link
“According to the Chinese military, India is the one which has forced its way into the Galwan valley. So, India is changing the status quo along the LAC – that has angered the Chinese,” says Dr Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA), a think tank.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center, another think tank, says this face-off is not routine. He adds China’s “massive deployment of soldiers is a show of strength”.
The road could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.
Differences have been growing in the past year over other areas of policy too.
The new federally-administered Ladakh included Aksai Chin, an area India claims but China controls.
Senior leaders of India’s Hindu-nationalist BJP government have also been talking about recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A strategic road, the Karakoram highway, passes through this area that connects China with its long-term ally Pakistan. Beijing has invested about $60bn (£48bn) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative and the highway is key to transporting goods to and from the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.
In addition, China was unhappy when India initially banned all exports of medical and protective equipment to shore up its stocks soon after the coronavirus pandemic started earlier this year.
How dangerous could this get?
“We routinely see both armies crossing the LAC – it’s fairly common and such incidents are resolved at the local military level. But this time, the build-up is the largest we have ever seen,” says former Indian diplomat P Stobdan, an expert in Ladakh and India-China affairs.
“The stand-off is happening at some strategic areas that are important for India. If Pangong lake is taken, Ladakh can’t be defended. If the Chinese military is allowed to settle in the strategic valley of Shyok, then the Nubra valley and even Siachen can be reached.”
In what seems to be an intelligence failure, India seems to have been caught off guard again. According to Indian media accounts, the country’s soldiers were outnumbered and surrounded when China swiftly diverted men and machines from a military exercise to the border region.
This triggered alarm in Delhi – and India has limited room for manoeuvre. It can either seek to persuade Beijing to withdraw its troops through dialogue or try to remove them by force. Neither is an easy option.
“China is the world’s second-largest military power. Technologically it’s superior to India. Infrastructure on the other side is very advanced. Financially, China can divert its resources to achieve its military goals, whereas the Indian economy has been struggling in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation,” says Ajai Shukla.
What next?
History holds difficult lessons for India. It suffered a humiliating defeat during the 1962 border conflict with China. India says China occupies 38,000km of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary issues.
China already controls the Aksai Chin area further east of Ladakh and this region, claimed by India, is strategically important for Beijing as it connect its Xinjiang province with western Tibet.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India and China have a long history of border disputes
In 2017 India and China were engaged in a similar stand-off lasting more than two months in Doklam plateau, a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.
This time, too, talks are seen as the only way forward – both countries have so much to lose in a military conflict.
“China has no intention to escalate tensions and I think India also doesn’t want a conflict. But the situation depends on both sides. The Indian government should not be guided by the nationalistic media comments,” says Dr Long Xingchun of the CIWA in Chengdu. “Both countries have the ability to solve the dispute through high-level talks.”
Chinese media have given hardly any coverage to the border issue, which is being interpreted as a possible signal that a route to talks will be sought.
Pratyush Rao, associate director for South Asia at Control Risks consultancy, says both sides have “a clear interest in prioritising their economic recovery” and avoiding military escalation.
“It is important to recognise that both sides have a creditable record of maintaining relative peace and stability along their disputed border.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has more than 150,000 reported infections
On the face of it, things may not look bad.
Since the first case of coronavirus at the end of January, India has reported more than 150,000 Covid-19 infections. More than 4,000 people have died of the infection.
To put this in some context, as of 22 May, India’s testing positivity rate was around 4%, the death rate from the infection around 3% and the doubling rate of infection – or the amount of time it takes for the number of coronavirus cases to double – was 13 days. The recovery rate of infected patients was around 40%.
All this is markedly lower than in the countries badly hit by the pandemic.
Like elsewhere in the world, there are hotspots and clusters of infection.
More than 80% of the active cases are in five states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh – and more than 60% of the cases in five cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad, according to official data.
More than half of people who have died of the disease have been aged 60 and older and many have underlying conditions, hewing to the international data about elderly people being more vulnerable to the disease.
The more than two-month-long grinding lockdown, official data suggests, has prevented the loss of between 37,000 and 78,000 lives. A paper published in Harvard Data Science Review appears to support that – it shows an eight-week lockdown can prevent about two million cases and, at a 3% fatality rate, prevent some 60,000 deaths.
“Infection has remained limited to certain areas. This also gives us confidence to open up other areas. It is so far an urban disease,” says VK Paul, who heads the medical emergency management plan on Covid-19.
This is where such claims enter uncertain territory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has conducted some 180,000 tests so far
Infections are rising sharply, up from 536 cases on 25 March when the first phase of the world’s harshest lockdown was imposed. The growth of infections is outpacing growth in testing – tests have doubled since April but cases have leapt fourfold.
Epidemiologists say the increase in reported infections is possibly because of increased testing. India has been testing up to 100,000 samples a day in the past week. Testing criteria has been expanded to include asymptomatic contacts of positive patients.
Yet, India’s testing remains one of the lowest in the world per head of population – 2,198 tests per million people.
The bungled lockdown at the end of March triggered an exodus of millions of informal workers who lost their jobs in the cities and began returning home in droves, first on foot and then by train. Some four million workers have travelled by rail from cities to their villages in more than half a dozen states in the past three weeks.
There is mounting evidence that this has already led to the spread of infection from the cities to the villages. And with the messy easing of the lockdown earlier this month, there are growing fears of infections spreading further in the cities.
Rising infections and a still-low fatality rate possibly points to milder infection in a younger population and a large number of asymptomatic cases. The focus, says Amitabh Kant, CEO of the government think-tank NITI Aayog, should be “bringing down fatalities and improving the recovery rate”.
But if the infection rate continues to grow, “things are going to get pretty grim in a few weeks time,” a leading virologist told me.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions of workers have fled the cities and returned to their villages after the lockdown
Doctors in the capital, Delhi, and the western city of Mumbai tell me they are already seeing a steady surge in Covid-19 admissions and worry about a looming shortage of hospital beds, including in critical care.
When the infection peaks in July, as is expected, a spike in infections could easily lead to many avoidable deaths as hospitals run out of beds for, or delay treatment to, infected patients who need timely oxygen support and clinical care to recover.
“That is the real worry. A critical-care bed needs an oxygen line, a ventilator, doctors, nursing staff. Everything will be under pressure,” Dr Ravi Dosi, who is heading a Covid-19 ward at a hospital in Indore, told me. His 50-bed ICU is already full of patients battling the infection.
With the lockdown easing, doctors are feeling jittery. “It’s a tactical nightmare because some people have begun going to work but there is a lot of fear”, says Dr Dosi.
“One co-worker sneezed in the office and 10-15 of his colleagues panicked and came to the hospital and demanded they get tested. These are the pressures that are building up.”
One reason for the confusion is the lack of – or the opacity of – adequate data on the pandemic to help frame a strategic and granular response.
Most experts say a one-size-fits-all strategy to contain the pandemic and impose and lift lockdowns will not work in India where different states will see infection peaks at different times. The reported infection rate – the number of infections for every 100 tests – in Maharashtra state, for example, is three times the national average.
“The infection is not spreading uniformly. India will see staggered waves,” a leading virologist, who insisted on anonymity, told me.
The lack of data means questions abound.
What about some 3,000 cases, which are not being assigned to any state because these people were found infected in places where they don’t live? (To put this into context, nine states in India have more than 3,000 cases.) How many of these cases have died or recovered?
Also, it is not clear whether the current data – sparse, and sporadic – is sufficient to map the future trajectory of the disease.
There is, for example, no robust estimate of carriers of the virus who have no symptoms – last month a senior government scientist said at least “80 out of every 100 Covid-19 patients may be asymptomatic or could be showing mild symptoms”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than 4,000 people have died of Covid-19 in India
If that is indeed true, then India’s fatality rate is bound to be lower. Atanu Biswas, a professor of statistics, says the predicted trajectory could change “with the huge inclusion of asymptomatic cases”. But, in the absence of data, India cannot be sure.
Also, epidemiologists say, measures like the doubling time of the infections and the reproduction number or R0 have their limitations. R0, or simply the R value, is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. The new coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.
“These measures are good when we are in the middle of a pandemic, less robust with fewer cases. You do need forecasting models for at least a month’s projection to anticipate healthcare needs. We should always evaluate an aggregate of evidence, not just one measure, but a cascade of measures,” Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told me.
Others say even calculating the number of recorded infections every day is “not always a good indicator of how an infection is spreading”.
A better option would be to look at the number of new tests and new cases every day that would provide a “degree of standardisation”, K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, told me.
Likewise, he believes, a measure of how many Covid-19 deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country’s population – the numbers of deaths per million people – is a better indicator of the fatality rate. Reason: the denominator – the country’s population – remains stable.
In the absence of robust and expansive data, India appears to be struggling to predict the future trajectory of the infection.
It is not clear yet how many deaths are not being reported, although there is no evidence of large scale “hidden deaths”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption A Covid-19 isolation ward in India
Epidemiologists say they would like to see clearer data on deaths due to pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses at this time over the past few years to quantify excess deaths and help with accurate reporting of Covid-19 deaths.
They would also like to see what racial disparities in infections and deaths there are to help improve containment in specific community areas. (In Louisiana, for example, African Americans accounted for 70% of Covid-19 deaths, while comprising 33% of the population.)
What is clear, say epidemiologists, is that India is as yet unable to get a grip on the extent of the spread of infection because of the still limited testing.
“We need reliable forecasting models with projection for the next few weeks for the country and the states,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Epidemiologists say India needs more testing and contact-tracing for both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, as well as isolation and quarantine.
There’s also the need to test based on the “contact network” to stop super-spreader events – frontline workers, delivery workers, essential workers, practically anybody who interacts with a large group of people.
“We have to learn how to manage and minimise risk in our daily lives as the virus is going to be with us,” says Dr Mukherjee.
Without knowing the true number of infected cases India is, in the words of an epidemiologist, “flying blindfolded”.
That can seriously jeopardise India’s fight against the virus and hobble its response in reviving the broken economy.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Churu in Rajasthan state recorded a temperature of 50C
The Indian capital, Delhi, saw temperatures rise to 47.6C on Tuesday, as most of north India faced severe heatwave conditions.
The heatwave, which officials say is likely to last until the weekend, comes even as the region struggles with rising Covid-19 infections and swarms of locusts that are ravaging crops.
Churu in Rajasthan state recorded a temperature of 50C – India’s highest.
Officials have warned people to stay indoors as far as possible.
The temperatures are the highest that the country has seen in decades for this time of the year. In fact, global weather tracking website El Dorado said the region was the hottest in the world on Tuesday.
Weather officials told local media that part of the reason for the heatwave was the powerful storm – Cyclone Amphan – that struck parts of eastern India and Bangladesh last week.
“Super cyclone Amphan sucked out all the moisture from other parts of the country,” Kuldeep Shrivastava, the head of the regional weather forecasting centre told the Hindustan Times newspaper.
Heat waves in recent years have caused a number of deaths across India. There is still no data about the impact of the current temperatures on people.
However, they come even as thousands of migrants are walking on the highways after fleeing cities to try and go back to their villages. Many are walking with little food and water, and will be among the most exposed to the weather.
Previously, those who have died have included people like daily-wage labourers, rickshaw operators and vegetable vendors – those most exposed to the sun.
In addition to that, the heatwave has affected efforts to combat swarms of locusts that are destroying crops in parts of the country, including Rajasthan.
More than 100 workers are battling the insects, using vehicle-mounted sprayers, pesticides and drones in the searing heat.
Image copyright ANIImage caption People participating in the chariot-pulling festival
Indian officials have suspended a local magistrate and a police official for allowing large crowds to attend a chariot-pulling festival at a Hindu temple on Thursday morning.
A case has also been filed against the trustees of the temple and another 20 people, police told the BBC.
Pictures of the crowds caused outrage after they surfaced on social media.
It comes weeks after Covid-19 clusters were linked to a Muslim religious gathering in the capital, Delhi.
Revoor village, which is in the state’s Kalburagi district, has been sealed off and officials are rushing teams of medical personnel to set up fever clinics there, the deputy commissioner of the district, told the BBC.
Kalburagi recorded India’s first coronavirus-related death – it is also the first district to implement “containment areas”, which involves sealing off villages where infections are reported.
Revoor is also close to another village that has been sealed off after a two-year-old tested positive for coronavirus.
The festival was held despite temple trustees giving officials an undertaking that it would not go ahead, a state lawmaker, Priyank Kharge, told the BBC.
Officials say that the daily rituals were performed at the temple on Wednesday evening in the presence of a few priests and temple trustees.
But early the next morning, the chariot was brought out of the temple premises and was pulled by “hundreds of people,” according to one official. They estimate that under 1,000 devotees attended the event.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption More than a billion people have been staying at home during the lockdown
Will India extend its rigorous 21-day lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus beyond its end date next week? By all accounts, yes.
On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.
Now, more than two months after the first case of Covid-19 was detected in the country, more than 5,000 people have tested positive and some 150 people have died. As testing has ramped up, the true picture is emerging. The virus is beginning to spread through dense communities and new clusters of infection are being reported every day. Lifting the lockdown could easily risk triggering a fresh wave of infections.
A harsh lockdown is certain to slow down the disease. Virologists I spoke to believe India is still at an early stage of the infection. The country still doesn’t have enough data on the transmissibility of the virus or even how many people could have been infected and recovered to develop adequate herd immunity. (It is slowly beginning finger prick blood tests to look at the presence of protective antibodies.)
More than 250 of India’s 700-odd districts have reported the infection. Reports say at least seven states have a third of all infections, and want the lockdown extended. Six states have reported clusters of rapidly growing infections – from the capital Delhi in the north to Maharashtra in the west and Tamil Nadu in the south.
Economic fallout
Not surprisingly, the lockdown is already hurting the economy. Many of the early hotspots are economic growth engines and contribute heavily in revenues to the exchequer. Mumbai, India’s financial capital and Maharashtra’s main city, accounts for more than a third of overall tax collection. The densely populated city has reported more than 500 cases and 45 deaths, and numbers are steadily rising. Authorities say the infection is now spreading through the community. Mumbai has made wearing face masks mandatory.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has ramped up testing during the lockdown
Many of these hotspot clusters are also thriving manufacturing bases. The spread of infection means that they will be under lockdown for a longer period of time.
The services industry, which generates almost half of India’s GDP, is also likely to remain shut for some more time. Construction, which employs a bulk of migrant workers, will remain similarly suspended. The unemployment rate may have already climbed to more than 20% after the lockdown, according to a report by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.
For the moment, economists say, the government will have to prioritise farming over everything else to ensure the livelihoods of millions and secure the country’s future food supplies.
Half of India’s labour force work on farms. The lockdown happened at a time when a bumper winter crop had to be harvested and sold, and the rain-fed summer crop had to be sowed. The immediate challenge is to harvest and market the first crop, and secure the second.
Moving trucks to pick up produce and take them to markets, with adequate social distancing and hand washing will be something the government will have to move on quickly.
“The immediate challenge is to ensure that rural India is not hit,” says Rathin Ray, an economist. “Realistically, a complete lockdown cannot be continuously maintained beyond early May. We don’t have a choice but to reopen gradually after that.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India has been under a lockdown from 24 March
There is little doubt about that. For his part, SK Sarin, who heads a government advisory panel on combating the disease, says the lockdown can be only eased in a “graded manner in areas that are not hotspots” and that the hotspots remained cordoned off.
Like other affected countries, India will have to prepare itself for what Gabriel Leung, an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, describes as several rounds of “suppress and lift” cycles.
During these periods “restrictions are applied and relaxed, applied again and relaxed again, in ways that can keep the pandemic under control but at an acceptable economic and social cost.”
Also, Dr Leung observes, “how best to do that will vary by country, depending on its means, tolerance for disruption and its people’s collective will. In all cases, however, the challenge essentially is a three-way tug of war between combating the disease, protecting the economy and keeping society at an even keel”.
It is now clear that shutdowns need to continue until transmission has slowed down markedly, and testing and health infrastructure has been scaled up to manage the outbreak.
Experts from the southern state of Kerala, a striking outlier that is containing the infection thanks to a transparent government and a robust public health system, say it isn’t time to lift the lockdown yet and have recommended a three-phase relaxation.
For most countries, easing the lockdown is a tricky policy choice. It sparks fears of triggering a fresh wave of infection and presents the inevitable trade-off between lives and livelihoods. French Prime Minister Edouard Phillipe, says relaxing the lockdown in his country is going to be “fearsomely complex”. In a crisis like this, according to his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte, leaders have to “make 100% of the decisions with 50% of the knowledge, and bear the consequences.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s financial capital, Mumbai, is emerging as a hotspot
It is going to be tougher for India with its vast size, densely packed population and enfeebled public health system. Also, no country in the world possibly has so much inter-state migration of casual workers, who are the backbone of the services and construction industries.
How will India manage to return these workers to their work places – factories, farms, building sites, shops – without a substantial easing of public transport at a time when crowded trains and buses can be a vector of transmission and easily neutralise the gains of the lockdown? Even allowing restricted mobility – allowing social distancing, temperature checks and passenger hygiene – would put considerable pressure on the public transport system.
The policy choices are fiendishly tough, and the answers are far from easy. India bungled the lockdown by not anticipating the exodus of millions of migrant workers from cities. The weeks ahead will tell whether the fleeing men, women and children carried the infection to their villages. The country simply cannot afford to make similar mistakes again while trying to relax the lockdown. Nitin Pai of The Takshashila Institution, a think tank, believes states should be left to decide on easing restrictions, and decisions “should be based on threat [of infection], which should be determined by extensive testing”.
This week Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the “situation in the country is akin to a social emergency”. His government now needs make sure that the looming threat to the nation’s health and economic progress is tackled skilfully.
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours and its infections are 20 per cent of the global total
China to hold day of mourning for victims; Singapore announces fifth death and school closures; Boris Johnson says he’s still ill; Angela Merkel ends quarantine
A group of nurses gather in the Bronx, New York, for a strike about the lack of personal protective equipment, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world soared past one million on Thursday and deaths topped 50,000 as Europe reeled from the pandemic and the
reported the highest daily death toll so far of any country.
Despite more than half the planet imposing some form of lockdown, the virus claimed thousands more lives, with the US, Spain and Britain seeing the highest number of daily fatalities yet.
Covid-19 is currently spreading the most rapidly in the US, where there have been 243,453 infections and 5,926 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours, the highest one-day toll recorded in any country since the global pandemic began. The grim record was previously held by Italy, where 969 people died on March 27.
Here are other developments:
Singapore shuts schools, workplaces in ‘circuit-breaking’ move
Singapore’s coronavirus case number hits 1,000 after city state reports biggest single-day spike
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Friday afternoon announced most workplaces would be shut from April 7, and schools would be closed from April 8, in its
The city state has 1,114 infections and five people have died. More than 200 have recovered.
Essential services such as food establishments, markets and supermarkets, clinics, hospitals, utilities, transport and banking services will remain open.
Coronavirus: what’s behind Singapore’s U-turn on wearing masks?
4 Apr 2020
Lee on Friday said instead of tightening measures incrementally over the next few weeks, Singapore should “make a decisive move now, to pre-empt escalating infections”.
“Looking at the trend, I am worried that unless we take further steps, things will gradually get worse, or another big cluster may push things over the edge,” Lee said, describing the new measures as a “circuit breaker”.
Medical experts say the stringent measures require the cooperation of citizens to stay at home, given that local infection clusters have ballooned from six at the end of February to more than 20 currently.
People stand behind markers as they practice physical distancing while queuing up to buy food at a Singapore supermarket on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The Lion City has launched a website to help individuals with symptoms that might be related to Covid-19 decide whether they should see a doctor or not.
On the Covid-19 Symptom Checker website, individuals will be prompted to answer a short list of questions including their age, if they have any chronic diseases, if they have travelled outside Singapore in the past 14 days, or have been in touch with a suspected or confirmed Covid-19 case.
They will also be asked to choose which symptoms they are experiencing from a predetermined list including symptoms such as cough, difficulty breathing and the loss of taste/smell. The site will then recommend what the person should do next. This includes whether they should see a doctor or continue to monitor their symptoms.
China to hold day of mourning for Covid-19 victims
At 10am on April 4, 2020, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence. Photo: EPA-EFE
Flags will be flown at half-mast across the country and at embassies overseas, while all public entertainment will be halted for the day, said the State Council, China’s cabinet, on Friday.
At 10am, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence, during which sirens will blast out across the country and the owners of cars and boats should sound their vehicles’ horns, the council said.
Saturday also coincides with Ching Ming, or the Tomb-sweeping Festival, when Chinese traditionally gather to remember their ancestors.
China to stage day of mourning for the thousands lost to Covid-19
4 Apr 2020
Mainland China on Friday reported 31 new confirmed coronavirus cases, including two locally transmitted infections, the country’s National Health Commission said.
It also reported four new deaths as of Thursday, all in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak began, the commission said in a statement. The total number of infections now stands at 81,620 and 3,322 deaths have been reported from mainland China to date.
The commission said 60 new asymptomatic coronavirus patients were also reported on Thursday.
UK’s Boris Johnson still ill with virus fever
Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives
✔@BorisJohnson
Another quick update from me on our campaign against #coronavirus.
You are saving lives by staying at home, so I urge you to stick with it this weekend, even if we do have some fine weather.#StayHomeSaveLives
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in isolation with a high temperature, more than a week after testing positive for coronavirus.
Johnson made the announcement in a video posted on Twitter on Friday, saying that even after seven days, “alas I still have one of the symptoms, a minor symptom: I still have a temperature”.
“In accordance with government advice I must continue my self-isolation,” he said.
As virus rages, British love for NHS could make or break Boris Johnson
3 Apr 2020
With coronavirus deaths still rising, the PM is anxious to drum home his message that Britons must obey government orders to stay in their homes as much as possible.
On March 23 he ordered a national lockdown, with the closure of schools, stores, restaurants and leisure facilities. Under emergency laws, police have the power to fine individuals who flout the rules and break up gatherings of more than two people in public.
Germany to crack down on people flouting physical distancing rules
Police officers ask people to disperse as they gather at a park in Berlin, Germany, on March 28, 2020. Photo: Reuters
People in Germany risk being fined up to €500 (US$540) for standing too close to each other from Friday, as officials crack down on people flouting rules brought in to control the coronavirus outbreak.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has ordered people not leave their homes unless they have an exceptional reason such as grocery shopping, exercise or medical appointments.
Gatherings of more than two people are banned and a distance of at least 1.5 metres must be kept from others at all times.
Local governments have the power to set fines for transgressors, with city officials in Berlin saying their fines would be as high as 500 euros. Similar announcements have come from across Germany’s 16 states.
Bow ties to face masks: German firms shift gears in virus crisis
2 Apr 2020
According to figures by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Friday, Germany has recorded more than 79,000 cases of the novel coronavirus, and 1,017 deaths, although RKI president Lothar Wieler warned on Friday that the actual number of casualties could be much higher.
“We won’t manage to test every single person … I assume we will have more deaths than are officially recorded,” he said.
Wieler said the mortality rate would “continue to rise” in Germany. German minister’s suicide linked to coronavirus crisis
30 Mar 2020
Meanwhile, Merkel on Friday left her Berlin home for the first time in almost two weeks, after she was forced into quarantine following contact with an infected doctor.
Merkel was tested several times, with all tests coming back negative.
The 65-year-old leader has returned to her office, where she will continue to observe social distancing rules and lead the country via video and audio conferencing, her spokesman said.
Spain records over 900 virus deaths
Members of the Red Cross prepare food for families in need at a food bank in Ronda, Spain, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
on Friday recorded over 900 new coronavirus deaths over the past day, bringing the number of casualties to 10,935, in the first decline in new Covid-19 deaths in four days.
The country has the world’s second-highest death toll after Italy, but health ministry figures confirm a consistent downward trend in the rate of new cases and fatalities.
The 932 deaths on Friday was a smaller gain than Thursday’s 950, according to Health Ministry data. The number of confirmed cases also increased by less than the previous day, with 7,472 new infections taking the total to 117,710.
Why Europe’s hospitals – among world’s best – are struggling with virus
1 Apr 2020
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government has been struggling to bring the virus under control. Hospitals are overwhelmed, nursing homes have been especially hard hit in a nation with one of the world’s oldest populations, and the army has been mobilised.
Sanchez may extend the current four-week lockdown for another two weeks beyond April 11, Spanish media reported on Friday. The stay-at-home order limits people’s movement to shopping for food and essentials, while some workers are also allowed to circulate.
Passengers disembark from virus-hit cruise ship in Florida
The Zaandam cruise ship docked in Florida on Friday. Photo: TNS via ZUMA Wire/dpa
Passengers from an ill-fated cruise were carefully freed from their cabins and allowed to disembark on Friday, following the removal of 14 critically-ill people who were wheeled off to Florida hospitals bracing for an onslaught of coronavirus patients.
The exodus from the Zaandam and its sister ship the Rotterdam, both operated by Holland America Line, was expected to continue throughout the day.
Floridians were getting off first, followed by other passengers. Buses were taking people healthy enough to travel directly to the airport, where they will board chartered flights home without going through the terminal.
Coronavirus nightmare for passengers stuck on MS Zaandam ‘death ship’
30 Mar 2020
“This is a humanitarian situation, and the County Commission’s top priority is protecting our 1.9 million residents while providing a contained disembarkation option for people on board who need to get safely home,” Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said in a statement late on Thursday.
Four people have died on the Zaandam, for reasons not yet disclosed. All told, 107 passengers and 143 crew reported flu-like symptoms during the voyage, but many have since recovered.
It was unclear when the bodies of four passengers who died on the Zaandam would be removed from the ship, which set sail on March 7, the day before the US State Department warned people against cruising during the pandemic.
South Korea’s infections top 10,000
South Korean hospital’s ‘phone booth’ coronavirus tests
on Friday said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country has surpassed 10,000, with 174 deaths linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new virus.
The Health and Welfare Ministry reported 86 new coronavirus infections over 24 hours to the end of Thursday, taking the total to 10,062 cases. It also logged five more deaths.
The numbers confirmed an encouraging stabilisation of numbers, which have hovered around the 100 mark for the past three weeks, a clear downward trend which began in March after numbers peaked at the end of February with over 900 cases recorded in a day.
South Korea’s virus response is the opposite of China’s – and it works
15 Mar 2020
For a fourth straight day, more new cases were recorded from Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi province, than in what has so far been the outbreak epicentre in the country – North Gyeongsang province and city of Daegu – with the capital area registering 34 new cases, and the latter recording 23.
Imported cases in patients recently returned from abroad also continued to increase, with 22 new infections bringing the total to 264.
Japan to give US$2,800 payouts to households
A man seen in a protective mask at Shinjuku in Tokyo, Japan, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Japanese ruling party executive Fumio Kishida said on Friday he has agreed with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen (US$2,800) in cash payments per household that suffers a certain degree of income declines from the coronavirus pandemic.
About 10 million of Japan’s 58 million households are expected to be eligible for the cash programme, a key pillar of an emergency economic package that the government plans to compile possibly on Tuesday.
The relief measure will be funded by a supplementary budget for this fiscal year that the government wants to pass in parliament before Japan’s Golden Week holiday starts in early May.
Coronavirus: Tokyo’s nightlife districts linked to rise in cases
2 Apr 2020
The government will not set a household income limit for the cash handout, which will be tax free, officials said.
“If we set an income limit, we would have to check individual incomes, which would take a lot of time,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, told a press conference. “Instead of that, we’ll come up with an unprecedented way (to judge who should receive cash).”
Nishimura said recipients will be limited to those who are facing livelihood difficulties, and that civil servants, politicians and major corporate executives who have not been significantly affected by the economic impact of the virus outbreak, for example, will be excluded from the scheme.
Japan weighs cost of Tokyo lockdown and Wagyu beef coupons for households
31 Mar 2020
Abe said the government will provide cash “as soon as possible” not only to households but also to small-and mid-sized business operators that have seen their revenues drop.
Abe has said the package to tackle the coronavirus will be larger than the 56.8 trillion yen emergency package compiled in April 2009 following the previous year’s global financial crisis.
Indonesian Muslims banned from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr
A police officer in a coronavirus helmet sprays disinfectant at a motorcycle in East Java, Indonesia, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Islamic scholars in Indonesia on Friday issued an edict to forbid people from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, as the country recorded nearly 2,000 infections during the
decided to allow millions of Muslims to travel to celebrate Eid in their hometowns next month, despite fears that they could spread the Covid-19 disease.
“The virus spreads very easily. Doing something like that at a time of a pandemic is haram [forbidden],” the council’s sectary general Anwar Abbas said.
Eid al-Fitr is expected to start on May 23, depending on the sighting of the new moon.
Indonesia frees 18,000 prisoners as virus death toll surges to 170
2 Apr 2020
Indonesia confirmed 196 new infections on Friday, bringing the total number of cases to 1,986.
The death toll rose to 181 after 11 new deaths, making Indonesia the the country with the highest number of fatalities in Asia outside China.
The State Intelligence Agency warned that the outbreak in Indonesia could peak in June with more than 105,000 cases.
Thailand’s night curfew to begin; people banned from making virus pranks
An officer checks the temperature of a passenger in a bus at a health checkpoint in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Thailand will on Friday night begin a daily nationwide curfew to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The 10pm-4am curfew, which will run indefinitely, is the latest measure by the government to curb gatherings and have people stay at home as much as possible.
Exceptions include those people transporting medical supplies and health workers travelling to and from work, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said.
“We prioritise health over freedom,” Prayuth said. “We might not feel as comfortable as before, but we all need to adapt for survival and have social responsibility, so that we can make it through this crisis.”
In a televised address, Prayuth also asked all Thai citizens abroad to “delay” returning to
until after April 15 in a bid to stop imported cases.
Thai king remains in Germany during pandemic, prompting criticism online
23 Mar 2020
Thais have also been banned from making public gatherings, in an order signed on Friday by defence forces chief General Pornpipat Benyasri.
The order prohibits people from public gatherings, carrying out activities, or gathering for unlawful purposes in a manner that risks spreading the coronavirus.
It also bans any act that aggravates people’s suffering and pranks to spread the virus. Family gatherings at residences and civic activities carried out according to safe social distancing guidelines are allowed.
Violation of the order carries a maximum penalty of two years’ imprisonment and a fine of 40,000 baht (US$1,215).
Pakistan’s mosques remain open amid shutdowns
Coronavirus: In Pakistan food aid is distributed to the poor in Karachi
Mosques in Pakistan were allowed to remain open on Friday, when adherents gather for weekly prayers, even as much of the country had shut down.
Pakistan, with 2,450 confirmed coronavirus cases and 35 deaths, has been sharply criticised for moving too slowly to curb large gatherings.
Prime Minister Imran Khan was relying on restricting the size of congregations attending mosques and advice to stay at home from religious groups like the country’s Islamic Ideology Council.
Coronavirus: Pakistan quarantines pilgrims returning from Iran
4 Mar 2020
However, some provinces had issued their own lockdown orders to prevent Muslims from gathering for Friday prayers.
In southern Sindh province, a complete lockdown was being enforced from noon until 3pm, the time when the faithful gather for prayers. Anyone found on the streets would be arrested, according to the provincial local government minister in a statement.
In eastern Punjab province, where 60 per cent of Pakistan’s 220 million people live, checkpoints had been set up in major cities stopping people from congregating.
Tunisia ‘robocop’ enforces virus lockdown
The PGuard robot patrols the streets of Tunis, in Tunisia, on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia’s interior ministry has deployed a police robot to patrol the streets of the capital and enforce a lockdown as the country battles the spread of coronavirus.
Known as PGuard, the “robocop” is remotely operated and equipped with infrared and thermal imaging cameras, in addition to a sound and light alarm system.
In images and a soundtrack posted on the interior ministry’s website last month, PGuard calls out to suspected violators of the lockdown: “What are you doing? Show me your ID. You don’t know there’s a lockdown?”
The PGuard robot checks the exit permit of a citizen in Tunis on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia has been under night-time curfew since March 17 and authorities imposed stricter lockdown orders from March 22.
Fourteen people have died from coronavirus in Tunisia, where 455 confirmed cases have tested positive for the disease.
The robot’s Tunisian creator Anis Sahbani said the machine was first produced in 2015 essentially to carry out security patrols and it also operates autonomously through artificial intelligence.
The robot, built by Sahbani’s Enova Robotics firm, costs between 100,000 and 130,000 euros (US$100,000 and $140,000), and has been selling mostly overseas to companies for security uses.
France death tally passes 5,000
A cashier runs a store counter covered up with a plastic barrier in Paris, France, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Xinhua
reported a jump in coronavirus deaths on Thursday as the country included fatalities in some nursing homes for the first time. Still, a decline in intensive-care admissions suggest the country’s lockdown is starting to slow the pace of the outbreak.
The health ministry reported 471 new hospital deaths from the coronavirus on Thursday. In addition, it reported 884 deaths in a partial count from nursing homes, bringing the total number to 5,387. Nursing homes were not previously included in the statistics.
in number of deaths, behind Italy and Spain. The number of confirmed cases is now at 59,105.
Italy reported another 760 fatalities on Thursday. Its death toll, already the world’s highest, now stands at 13,915. Total infections, including recoveries and deaths, have reached 115,242.
Spain reported 950 more deaths from the coronavirus, the most in a single day, taking the total to 10,003.
India plans staggered exit from lockdown
Indian policemen in Hyderabad, India, wear virus-themed helmets for a campaign to raise awareness at preventing the spread of the coronavirus on April 2, 2020. Photo: AP
infections, but the world’s biggest shutdown has left millions without jobs and forced migrant workers to flee to their villages for food and shelter.
After violence, Indian police try humour to enforce virus lockdown
2 Apr 2020
He told state chief ministers that the shutdown had helped limit infections but that the situation remained far from satisfactory around the world and there could be a second wave.
“Prime minister said that it is important to formulate a common exit strategy to ensure staggered re-emergence of the population once lockdown ends,” the government quoted him as saying in a video conference.
India has had 2,069 confirmed infections, of whom 53 have died, low figures by comparison with the US, China, Italy and Spain. But the big worry is the
because of a gathering held by a Muslim missionary group last month that has spawned dozens of cases across the country, officials said.
Five-minute virus tests ‘may give inaccurate results’
A Chinese drug and diagnostic firm has cautioned that the slew of new test kits that promise to detect the coronavirus in just a few minutes may not be as accurate as conventional kits, a potential setback for countries seeking to rapidly test their citizens.
“Such rapid testing is not as accurate as the traditional nucleic acid test that takes about two hours to turn out results,” Wu Yifang, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group’s chief executive officer, said. The drugmaker also has a swift testing technology but it’s working on making the results more accurate, according to Wu.
Coronavirus nightmare of China’s ‘recovered’ patients
2 Apr 2020
Abbott Laboratories unveiled a coronavirus test on March 28 that can confirm if someone is infected in as little as five minutes. Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology has been supplying its version of rapid testing kits to the European Union even before getting regulatory approval in China for domestic use.
The faster and easy-to-deploy diagnostic kits seemingly save time and resources for nations under pressure to widen their testing efforts. But there have been reports of faulty kits, like those bought by Spain and the Czech Republic.
Shenzhen Bioeasy, which sold thousands of test kits to Spain, said in a statement on March 27 that false results could be due to improper use of its kits or faulty specimen collection.
Trump tests negative again
US President Donald Trump was was first tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive. Photo: UPI/Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump on Thursday was tested again to determine whether he had been infected by the coronavirus, and the test came back negative, the White House said.
A letter from Trump’s doctor, Sean Conley, said Trump had undergone what was a second test for coronavirus. He was tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive.
Trump to urge Americans to wear masks when outside
3 Apr 2020
Conley said in a letter released by the White House that Trump was tested with a new, rapid point-of-contact test and the result came back in 15 minutes.
“He is healthy and without symptoms,” Conley said.
Trump said Americans should wear protective face masks if they wish. “If people want to wear them, they can” he said. Scarves work just as well, he said.
NRA sues NY governor over closure of gun stores
A pedestrian pushes a stroller as people wait in line outside a gun store to buy supplies on March 15, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The National Rifle Association (NRA) sued New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for closing gun shops during the coronavirus pandemic, saying the restriction is unconstitutional and leaves citizens defenceless while prisoners are being released early as a result of the crisis.
Cuomo’s March 20 executive order that included firearms retailers as non-essential businesses, which must close is a “pointless and arbitrary attack on the constitutional rights of New York citizens and residents,” the NRA said in a complaint filed late Thursday in Syracuse, New York.
New York ordered most businesses to close to prevent the spread of the virus, but deemed grocery stores, liquor stores, pharmacies and restaurants that do take-out as essential and allowed them to remain open.
The New York lawsuit follows similar action the NRA took in Northern California, where it sued several cities including San Jose for ordering gun stores to close.
Corona beer producer halts brewing
The Mexican brewer of Corona beer said on Thursday it was suspending production because of the health emergency in the country over the Covid-19 pandemic.
Grupo Modelo said the measure was in line with the Mexican government’s order to suspend all non-essential activities until April 30 to slow the spread of coronavirus.
“We are in the process of lowering production at our plants to the bare minimum,” the company said in a statement, adding it would complete the suspension in the following days.
Mexico’s government has said that only key sectors such as agribusiness will be able to continue to function.
US stops issuing passports, except in emergencies
The US State Department will not be processing new passports and renewals except for emergency cases because of the coronavirus pandemic, the agency’s website said.
“Due to public health measures to limit the spread of Covid-19, effective March 20, 2020, we are only able to offer service for customers with a qualified life-or-death emergency and who need a passport for immediate international travel within 72 hours,” said a March 27 online statement.
How elite US university students brought coronavirus home from campus
3 Apr 2020
Passport applications received on or before March 19 will be processed.
Travellers who paid extra for expedited service can expect to receive their passport in the next two to three weeks.
If you applied in-person at a passport agency or centre before March 19, the agency will contact you about getting your passport.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Hundreds have been leaving the mosque to be monitored or tested for the virus
Officials across India are searching for hundreds of people who attended a religious event in the capital that has set off several Covid-19 clusters.
At least six regions have reported cases that can be directly traced to the days-long congregation at a mosque.
Delhi officials are now clearing the building, where more than 1,000 people have been stranded since the government imposed a lockdown last week.
At least 24 have tested positive so far, the state health minister said.
They are among some 300 people who showed symptoms and have been moved to various hospital to be tested, he told the media. Another 700 have been shifted into quarantine centres, he added.
It is believed that the infections were caused by preachers who attended the event from Indonesia.
State officials have called for action to be taken against mosque officials, but they have denied any wrongdoing.
Local media reports say that Nizamuddin – the locality where the mosque is located – has been cordoned off and more than 35 buses carrying people to hospitals or quarantine centres.
The congregation – part of a 20th Century Islamic movement called Tablighi Jamaat – began at the end of February, but some of the main events were held in early March.
It’s unclear if the event was ticketed or even if the organisers maintained a roster of visitors as people attended the event throughout, with some staying on and others leaving. Even overseas visitors, some of them preachers, travelled to other parts of the country where they stayed in local mosques and met people.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
So officials have no easy way of finding out how many people attended the event or where they went. But they have already begun to trace and test.
The southern state of Telangana reported on Sunday night that six people who had attended the event died from the virus. The state’s medical officer told the BBC that more than 40 of Telangana’s 71 cases were either directly or indirectly linked to the event.
Indian-administered Kashmir reported its first death from the virus last week – a 65-year-old who had been in Delhi for the congregation. Officials told BBC Urdu that more than 40 of the region’s 48 cases could be traced back to that one patient.
A cluster has even appeared in the distant Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where six of the nine who have tested positive, had returned from the Delhi event.
The southern states of Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have said more than 3,000 people from their states had attended the event, and Tamil Nadu has traced 16 positive patients to it.
States have also asked other people who attended to come forward for testing.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has asked for a police complaint to be registered against the head of the mosque.
However, the event’s organisers have issued a statement, saying they had suspended the event and asked everyone to leave as soon as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that there would be a day-long national curfew on 22 March.
While many were able to leave, they say, others were stranded because states began to seal their borders the following day, and two days later, India imposed a 21-day lockdown, suspending buses and trains.
The mosque’s premises include dormitories that can house hundreds of people.
The organisers say they informed the local police about all of this and continued to cooperate with medical officers who came to inspect the premises.
The mosque, the statement says, “never violated any provision of law, and always tried to act with compassion and reason towards the visitors who came to Delhi from different states. It did not let them violate the medical guidelines by thronging ISBTs (bus stops) or roaming on streets.”
This is not the first time religious congregations have been blamed for the spread of coronavirus.
Tablighi Jamaat events have also been blamed for spreading cases in Indonesia and Malaysia.
And in South Korea, many positive cases were linked to the Schincheonji church, a secretive religious sect, that has since apologised for its role in the outbreak.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions are workers are defying a curfew and returning home
When I spoke to him on the phone, he had just returned home to his village in the northern state of Rajasthan from neighbouring Gujarat, where he worked as a mason.
In the rising heat, Goutam Lal Meena had walked on macadam in his sandals. He said he had survived on water and biscuits.
In Gujarat, Mr Meena earned up to 400 rupees ($5.34; £4.29) a day and sent most of his earnings home. Work and wages dried up after India declared a 21-day lockdown with four hours notice on the midnight of 24 March to prevent the spread of coronavirus. (India has reported more than 1,000 Covid-19 cases and 27 deaths so far.) The shutting down of all transport meant that he was forced to travel on foot.
“I walked through the day and I walked through the night. What option did I have? I had little money and almost no food,” Mr Meena told me, his voice raspy and strained.
He was not alone. All over India, millions of migrant workers are fleeing its shuttered cities and trekking home to their villages.
These informal workers are the backbone of the big city economy, constructing houses, cooking food, serving in eateries, delivering takeaways, cutting hair in salons, making automobiles, plumbing toilets and delivering newspapers, among other things. Escaping poverty in their villages, most of the estimated 100 million of them live in squalid housing in congested urban ghettos and aspire for upward mobility.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Informal workers are the backbone of India’s big city economies
Last week’s lockdown turned them into refugees overnight. Their workplaces were shut, and most employees and contractors who paid them vanished.
Sprawled together, men, women and children began their journeys at all hours of the day last week. They carried their paltry belongings – usually food, water and clothes – in cheap rexine and cloth bags. The young men carried tatty backpacks. When the children were too tired to walk, their parents carried them on their shoulders.
They walked under the sun and they walked under the stars. Most said they had run out of money and were afraid they would starve. “India is walking home,” headlined The Indian Express newspaper.
The staggering exodus was reminiscent of the flight of refugees during the bloody partition in 1947. Millions of bedraggled refugees had then trekked to east and west Pakistan, in a migration that displaced 15 million people.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Migrant labourers feel they have more social security in their villages
This time, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers are desperately trying to return home in their own country. Battling hunger and fatigue, they are bound by a collective will to somehow get back to where they belong. Home in the village ensures food and the comfort of the family, they say.
Clearly, a lockdown to stave off a pandemic is turning into a humanitarian crisis.
Among the teeming refugees of the lockdown was a 90-year-old woman, whose family sold cheap toys at traffic lights in a suburb outside Delhi.
Kajodi was walking with her family to their native Rajasthan, some 100km (62 miles) away. They were eating biscuits and smoking beedis, – traditional hand-rolled cigarettes – to kill hunger. Leaning on a stick, she had been walking for three hours when journalist Salik Ahmed met her. The humiliating flight from the city had not robbed her off her pride. “She said she would have bought a ticket to go home if transport was available,” Mr Ahmed told me.
Others on the road included a five-year-old boy who was on a 700km (434 miles) journey by foot with his father, a construction worker, from Delhi to their home in Madhya Pradesh state in central India. “When the sun sets we will stop and sleep,” the father told journalist Barkha Dutt. Another woman walked with her husband and two-and-a-half year old daughter, her bag stuffed with food, clothes and water. “We had a place to stay but no money to buy food,” she said.
Then there was Rajneesh, a 26-year-old automobile worker who walking 250km (155 miles) to his village in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. It would take him four days, he reckoned. “We will die walking before coronavirus hits us,” the man told Ms Dutt.
He was not exaggerating. Last week, a 39-year-old man on a 300km (186 miles) trek from Delhi to Madhya Pradesh complained of chest pain and exhaustion and died; and a 62-year-old man, returning from a hospital by foot in Gujarat, collapsed outside his house and died. Four other migrants, turned away at the borders on their way to Rajasthan from Gujarat, were mowed down by a truck on a dark highway.
As the crisis worsened, state governments scrambled to arrange transport, shelter and food.
Image copyright SALIK AHMED/OUTLOOKImage caption Ninety-year-old Kajodi Devi is walking from Delhi to her village
But trying to transport them to their villages quickly turned into another nightmare. Hundreds of thousands of workers were pressed against each other at a major bus terminal in Delhi as buses rolled in to pick them up.
Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal implored the workers not to leave the capital. He asked them to “stay wherever you are, because in large gatherings, you are also at risk of being infected with the coronavirus.” He said his government would pay their rent, and announced the opening of 568 food distribution centres in the capital. Prime Minister Narendra Modi apologised for the lockdown “which has caused difficulties in your lives, especially the poor people”, adding these “tough measures were needed to win this battle.”
Whatever the reason, Mr Modi and state governments appeared to have bungled in not anticipating this exodus.
Mr Modi has been extremely responsive to the plight of Indian migrant workers stranded abroad: hundreds of them have been brought back home in special flights. But the plight of workers at home struck a jarring note.
“Wanting to go home in a crisis is natural. If Indian students, tourists, pilgrims stranded overseas want to return, so do labourers in big cities. They want to go home to their villages. We can’t be sending planes to bring home one lot, but leave the other to walk back home,” tweeted Shekhar Gupta, founder and editor of The Print.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption There is a precedent for this kind of exodus during crisis
The city, says Chinmay Tumbe, author of India Moving: A History of Migration, offers economic security to the poor migrant, but their social security lies in their villages, where they have assured food and accommodation. “With work coming to a halt and jobs gone, they are now looking for social security and trying to return home,” he told me.
Also there’s plenty of precedent for the flight of migrant workers during a crisis – the 2005 floods in Mumbai witnessed many workers fleeing the city. Half of the city’s population, mostly migrants, had also fled the city – then Bombay – in the wake of the 1918 Spanish flu.
When plague broke out in western India in 1994 there was an “almost biblical exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from the industrial city of Surat [in Gujarat]”, recounts historian Frank Snowden in his book Epidemics and Society.
Half of Bombay’s population deserted the city, during a previous plague epidemic in 1896. The draconian anti-plague measures imposed by the British rulers, writes Dr Snowden, turned out to be a “blunt sledgehammer rather than a surgical instrument of precision”. They had helped Bombay to survive the epidemic, but “the fleeing residents carried the disease with them, thereby spreading it.”
More than a century later, that same fear haunts India today. Hundreds of thousands of the migrants will eventually reach home, either by foot, or in packed buses. There they will move into their joint family homes, often with ageing parents. Some 56 districts in nine Indian states account for half of inter-state migration of male workers, according to a government report. These could turn out to be potential hotspots as thousands of migrants return home.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The fleeing migrants could spread the disease all over the country
Partha Mukhopadhyay, a senior fellow at Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research, suggests that 35,000 village councils in these 56 potentially sensitive districts should be involved to test returning workers for the virus, and isolate infected people in local facilities.
In the end, India is facing daunting and predictable challenges in enforcing the lockdown and also making sure the poor and homeless are not fatally hurt. Much of it, Dr Snowden told me, will depend on whether the economic and living consequences of the lockdown strategy are carefully managed, and the consent of the people is won. “If not, there is a potential for very serious hardship, social tension and resistance.” India has already announced a $22bn relief package for those affected by the lockdown.
The next few days will determine whether the states are able to transport the workers home or keep them in the cities and provide them with food and money. “People are forgetting the big stakes amid the drama of the consequences of the lockdown: the risk of millions of people dying,” says Nitin Pai of Takshashila Institution, a prominent think tank.
“There too, likely the worst affected will be the poor.”
But in Delhi and the financial capital, Mumbai, people fearing shortages quickly thronged shops and pharmacies.
“I have never witnessed such a chaos in my life,” the owner of one store in the Shakarpur district of Delhi said, quoted by the Press Trust of India.
“All our stocks, including rice, flour, bread, biscuits, edible oils, have been sold out.”
Police in the busy city of Ghaziabad, in Uttar Pradesh state, patrolled the streets with megaphones to tell residents to stay indoors.
Image copyright AFPImage caption People in Mumbai rushed to stock up on essentials following Mr Modi’s address
Under the new measures, all non-essential businesses will be closed but hospitals and other medical facilities will continue to function as normal. Schools and universities will remain shut and almost all public gatherings will be banned.
Anyone flouting the new rules faces up to two years in prison and heavy fines.
In his address, Prime Minister Modi also:
Stressed that the 21-day lockdown was “very necessary to break the chain of coronavirus”
Emphasised the seriousness of the situation and said that even developed countries had faced problems in combating it
Said that “social distancing was the only way to stop” the virus spreading
Announced that nearly $2bn (£1.8bn) would be made available to boost the country’s health infrastructure
Called on people not to “spread rumours” and to follow instructions
His announcement came after several Indian states introduced measures of their own, such as travel restrictions and the closure of non-essential services.
India has already issued a ban on international arrivals and grounded domestic flights. The country’s rail network has also suspended most passenger services.
Many parts of India, including cities such as Delhi and Mumbai, are already under tight restrictions. But this move extends those provisions to every corner of the country.
An earlier one-day curfew, which was seen as a trial, was flouted by many.
Mr Modi called on Indians to clap and cheer the emergency services from their balconies on Sunday. But many misunderstood the call and congregated in the streets as they danced and chanted.
“It’s impossible to fathom the cost that India may have to pay if such irresponsible behaviour continues,” Mr Modi warned at the time. “Social distancing is the only option to combat coronavirus.”
The implications of a total lockdown in India are huge, not just economically, but socially.
This is a nation where community is everything. Going to worship at a temple, mosque or church is an essential part of daily life for so many.
This is a seismic cultural shift but – like the rest of the world facing similar restrictions – a necessary one.
What’s the latest from around Asia?
Neighbouring Pakistan has almost twice as many confirmed cases – 878 as of Monday evening. Sweeping restrictions are in place although the government has stopped short of imposing a nationwide lockdown. However, several provinces have announced them independently. The army is being brought in to help enforce the restrictions
Bangladesh, which has reported 33 cases and three deaths, is also deploying its armed forces to help maintain social distancing and boost Covid-19 preventive measures. The soldiers will also monitor thousands of quarantined expatriate returnees. Across South Asia, there are concerns that the actual number of cases could be much higher than is being reported.
Indonesia, which has 49 confirmed Covid-19 deaths – the highest in South East Asia – has converted an athlete’s village built for the 2018 Asian Games into a makeshift hospital for coronavirus patients. A state of emergency was declared in Jakarta on Monday
In Thailand, a month-long state of emergency which will include curfews and checkpoints will begin on Thursday. The government has been criticised for failing to take strong action so far. Four people have died and nearly 900 tested positive
The most populous country that was without a case until now – Myanmar – has announced two cases
And what about the rest of the world?
Elsewhere, governments are continuing to work to stem the spread of the virus which has now affected more than 190 countries worldwide
More than 2.6 billion people are in lockdown now India has introduced its new measures, according to a tally by the AFP news agency
Media caption Reality Check tackles misleading health advice being shared online
Europe remains at the epicentre of the pandemic. On Tuesday, the death toll jumped by 514 in a single day in Spain and other European countries also reported sharp increases
Italy is the worst affected country in the world in terms of deaths. The virus has killed almost 7,000 people there over the past month
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the US has the potential to become the new epicentre of the pandemic
In other developments, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the International Olympic Committee has agreed that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics should be postponed by a year
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 