Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
China will not set an economic growth goal for this year as it deals with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
It is the first time Beijing has not had a gross domestic product (GDP) target since 1990 when records began.
The announcement was made by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of the country’s annual parliament meeting.
The world’s second largest economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter from a year ago as lockdowns paralysed businesses.
“This is because our country will face some factors that are difficult to predict in its development due to the great uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic and the world economic and trade environment,” Premier Li said.
The country’s leadership has promised to boost economic support measures amid growing concerns that rising unemployment could threaten social stability.
The move comes as tensions between Beijing and Washington are becoming increasingly strained over the coronavirus pandemic, trade and Hong Kong.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump stepped up his attacks on China, suggesting that the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, is behind a “disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe.”
It came as Mr Trump and other Republicans have escalated their criticism of Beijing’s handling of the early stages of the outbreak.
Also on Thursday, China announced plans to impose new national security legislation on Hong Kong after last year’s pro-democracy protests.
The announcement was met with a warning from Mr Trump that the US would react “very strongly” against any attempt to gain more control over the former British colony.
Separately, two US senators have proposed legislation to punish Chinese entities involved in enforcing the planned new laws and penalise banks that do business with them.
Earlier this week, the US Senate unanimously passed a proposal to delist Chinese companies from American stock exchanges if they fail to comply with US financial reporting standards.
US-listed Chinese companies have come under increasing scrutiny in recent weeks after Luckin Coffee revealed that an internal investigation found hundreds of millions of dollars of its sales last year were “fabricated”.
Image copyright AFP / GETTYImage caption Shoppers walking past a broadcast of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivering his speech at the opening of the NPC on Thursday
China’s ruling Communist Party has set in motion a controversial national security law for Hong Kong, a move seen as a major blow to the city’s freedoms.
The law to ban “treason, secession, sedition and subversion” could bypass Hong Kong’s lawmakers.
Critics say China is breaking its promise to allow Hong Kong freedoms not seen elsewhere in China.
It is likely to fuel public anger and may even trigger fresh protests and demands for democratic reform.
The plan was submitted at the annual National People’s Congress (NPC), which largely rubber-stamps decisions already taken by the Communist leadership, but is still the most important political event of the year.
Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous region and an economic powerhouse, was always meant to have introduced such laws after the handover from British control to Chinese rule in 1997.
After last year’s wave of sustained and violent protest, Beijing is now attempting to push them through, arguing “law-based and forceful measures” must be taken to “prevent, stop and punish” such protests in the future.
On Friday, Hong Kong’s government said it would co-operate with Beijing to enact the law, adding it would not affect the city’s freedoms.
That article says Hong Kong “must improve” national security, before adding: “When needed, relevant national security organs of the Central People’s Government will set up agencies in Hong Kong to fulfil relevant duties to safeguard national security in accordance with the law.”
China could essentially place this law into Annex III of the Basic Law, which covers national laws that must be implemented in Hong Kong – either by legislation, or decree.
Addressing the congress, Premier Li Keqiang spoke of the economic impact of the coronavirus and on Hong Kong and Macau said: “We’ll establish sound legal systems and enforcement mechanisms for safeguarding national security in the two Special Administrative Regions.”
What do opponents say the dangers are?
Hong Kong is what is known as a “special administrative region” of China.
It has observed a “one country, two systems” policy since Britain returned sovereignty in 1997, which has allowed it certain freedoms the rest of China does not have.
Pro-democracy activists fear that China pushing through the law could mean “the end of Hong Kong” – that is, the effective end of its autonomy and these freedoms.
Last year’s mass protests in Hong Kong were sparked by a bill that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China.
Media caption Former Hong Kong governor Chris Patten: “UK should tell China this is outrageous”
The bill was paused, then withdrawn – but the protests continued until the virus outbreak at the end of the year.
The US has also weighed in, with President Trump saying the US would react strongly if it went through – without giving details.
It is currently considering whether to extend Hong Kong’s preferential trading and investment privileges.
Why is China doing this?
Mr Wang said the security risks had become “increasingly notable” – a reference to last year’s protests.
“Considering Hong Kong’s situation at present, efforts must be made at the state-level to establish and improve the legal system and enforcement mechanisms,” he is quoted as saying in state media.
Media caption The BBC’s Helier Cheung on Hong Kong’s 2019 protests
Beijing may also fear September’s elections to Hong Kong’s legislature.
If last year’s success for pro-democracy parties in district elections is repeated, government bills could potentially be blocked.
What is Hong Kong’s legal situation?
Hong Kong was under British control for more than 150 years up to 1997.
The British and Chinese governments signed a treaty – the Sino-British Joint Declaration – that agreed Hong Kong would have “a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign and defence affairs”, for 50 years.
This was enshrined in the Basic Law, which runs out in 2047.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, learns about poverty alleviation efforts at an organic daylily farm in Yunzhou District of Datong City, north China’s Shanxi Province, May 11, 2020. (Xinhua/Li Xueren)
— Xi stressed addressing the difficulties faced by enterprises in resuming production and operation.
— Xi underscored lifting the remaining poor population out of poverty.
— Xi required implementing pro-employment policies.
TAIYUAN, May 12 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed efforts to complete building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and ride on the momentum to write a new chapter in socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era.
Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, made the remarks during an inspection tour in north China’s Shanxi Province.
Xi called for efforts to overcome the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic and make greater strides in high-quality transformation and development to ensure that the target of poverty eradication is reached and the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects is completed.
During the tour from Monday to Tuesday, Xi inspected work on coordinating the regular epidemic response with economic and social development, and on consolidating the poverty eradication results.
While visiting an organic daylily farm in Yunzhou, Datong City, on Monday, Xi said what he cares about the most after poverty eradication is how to consolidate the achievements, prevent people from falling back into poverty, and make sure rural people’s incomes rise steadily.
He said an important benchmark to evaluate an official’s job performance is to see the amount of good and concrete services he or she has delivered to the people.
When visiting a community of relocated villagers, Xi said relocation is not only about better living conditions but also about chances to get rich. He called for follow-up support to residents with tailor-made rural business projects to ensure sustainable development.
Highlighting that whether the people can benefit shall be a top concern, Xi demanded more supporting policies be put in place in terms of industrial development, financing, agricultural insurance, among others.
Xi applauded the strenuous efforts made by primary-level officials on helping people fight poverty.
At the home of villager Bai Gaoshan, Xi chatted with Bai’s family as they sat on a “kang” — a bed-stove made out of clay or bricks in north China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, learns about poverty alleviation efforts in a village of Xiping Township in Datong City, north China’s Shanxi Province, May 11, 2020. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)
Xi said the CPC wholeheartedly seeks happiness for the Chinese people, having stopped collecting agricultural taxes and fees, helping the impoverished rural residents with housing and medical service, training them with skills, and finding ways for them to live a prosperous life.
“I believe our villagers will enjoy better days ahead,” Xi said.
On top of that, he called for consolidating achievements in poverty alleviation, and then focusing on rural vitalization to ensure a better life for rural residents.
He then went on to visit the 1,500-year Yungang Grottoes, a “treasure house” of artifacts featuring elements blending Chinese and foreign cultures, as well as cultures of China’s ethnic minorities and the Central Plains.
Xi stressed that historical and cultural heritages are irreplaceable precious resources, and protecting them should always be put in the first place in tourism development.
Noting that tourism should not be over-commercialized, Xi said tourism should become a way for the Chinese to understand and appreciate the culture of the nation and enhance their cultural confidence.
The historical implications of communication and integration behind the Yungang Grottoes should be further explored to enhance the sense of community for the Chinese nation, said Xi.
During a research tour in a stainless steel manufacturer in the provincial capital Taiyuan on Tuesday morning, Xi said products and technology are the lifeline of businesses, calling for more efforts in technological innovation to make a greater contribution to the development of advanced manufacturing.
He also called on businesses to strictly implement epidemic prevention and control measures to ensure the safety and health of their workers, while promoting the resumption of work and production to make up for the time lost.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, waves to workers during a research tour in a stainless steel manufacturer in Taiyuan, capital city of north China’s Shanxi Province, May 12, 2020. (Xinhua/Li Xueren)
Later on, Xi went to check the ecological protection work of the Fenhe River in the city, and urged the incorporation of environment protection, energy revolution, green development, and economic transformation.
After hearing the work reports of the CPC Shanxi Provincial Committee and the provincial government on Tuesday afternoon, Xi stressed that no relaxation is allowed in epidemic prevention and control, noting that efforts should be made to guard against both imported infections and domestic rebounds, improve regular prevention and control mechanism, and prevent new outbreaks.
Xi called for efforts on more promptly and effectively addressing the difficulties faced by enterprises in resuming production and operation, on solid implementation of all the policies and measures for expanding domestic demand, and on strengthening the competitiveness and quality of the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, speaks with workers during a research tour in a stainless steel manufacturer in Taiyuan, capital city of north China’s Shanxi Province, May 12, 2020. (Xinhua/Xie Huanchi)
Continuous efforts should be made to promote the adjustment and optimization of China’s industrial structure, and scientific and technological innovations should be greatly enhanced to continue achieving breakthroughs in new infrastructures, technologies, materials, equipment as well as new products and business models, Xi said.
He stressed overcoming the difficulties and obstacles facing reforms in key areas, including state-owned enterprises and assets, the fiscal, tax, and financial system, business environment, the private sector, domestic demand expansion, and urban-rural integration.
Xi also highlighted efforts to improve the country’s system and mechanism for opening-up.
China will uphold the concept that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, and steadily implement the national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, he said.
More should be done to accelerate institutional innovation and strengthen the implementation of institutions to help form a green way of production and living, he said.
Efforts should be made to solidify the foundation for the development of agriculture and rural areas, beef up policy support for grain production and lift the remaining poor population out of poverty, Xi said.
Authorities should adhere to the people-centered development philosophy and ensure the bottom line of people’s livelihood, Xi said. He added that efforts should be made to implement pro-employment policies and facilitate the employment of key groups such as college graduates, veterans, rural migrant workers and urban people facing difficulties.
Efforts should be expedited to improve the weak areas in the public health system exposed by the epidemic and shift the focus of social governance to the primary levels, Xi said.
The rich and colorful local history and culture as well as revolutionary cultural resources should be fully drawn on and used to promote cultural advancement, Xi said.
He stressed consistent efforts to promote core socialist values to guide Party cadres as well as the public to enhance morality, cultivate good ethics and strengthen cultural confidence.
Xi also called for efforts to improve the Party’s political ecosystem, strictly observe the Party’s political discipline and rules and fight against corruption and undesirable conduct.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China announced on Wednesday that its parliament will open a key annual session on May 22, signalling that Beijing sees the country returning to normal after being reduced to a near-standstill for months by the COVID-19 epidemic.
During the gathering of the National People’s Congress in the capital, delegates will ratify major legislation, and the government will unveil economic targets, set defence spending projections and make personnel changes. The ruling Communist Party also typically announces signature policy initiatives.
The session was initially scheduled to start on March 5 but was postponed due to COVID-19, which has infected nearly 83,000 people and killed more than 4,600 on the mainland after emerging late last year in the central city of Wuhan.
As the epidemic has subsided, economic and social life gradually returned to normal, making it possible for the congress to convene, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the standing committee of the NPC, the legislature’s top decision-making body, as saying.
The committee also appointed Huang Runqiu as the new minister for ecology and environment, a post vacated when predecessor Li Ganjie became deputy Communist Party chief for Shandong province earlier this month, Xinhua reported.
Tang Yijun was also named as the new justice minister to replace Fu Zhenghua, who has reached the retirement age of 65 for ministers.
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body to parliament, has proposed starting its annual session a day before the parliamentary session opens.
Analysts expect China to roll out additional fiscal stimulus in order to cushion the blow from COVID-19, which has developed in to a worldwide pandemic that some fear will trigger a severe global recession.
China’s economy contracted for the first time on record during the January-March period, when the government imposed severe travel and transport restriction to curb the spread of the epidemic.
Parliament is also expected to discuss the anti-government protests in Hong Kong, amid growing speculation that Beijing take steps to strengthen its grip on the city.
It is unclear how long parliament and its advisory body will meet for this time, and people familiar with the matter have told Reuters that this year’s annual sessions could be the shortest in decades due to COVID-19 concerns. Usually more than 5,000 delegates descend on Beijing from all over China for at least 10 days.
Beijing city plans to ease quarantine rules as early as Thursday, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters, ahead of the key political meetings.
People arriving in the capital from other parts of China will no long have to be quarantined for two weeks unless they come from high-risk areas such as Heilongjiang in the north and some parts of Guangdong in the southeast, the sources said.
BEIJING, April 19 (Xinhua) — China will step up efforts to expedite technological research on the construction and application of digital infrastructure, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
More support should be provided to the research and development of 5G enhancement technology and 6G technology, while the accurate matching of innovation, industrial, capital and policy chains should be promoted, said Chen Zhaoxiong, vice minister of the MIIT.
Chen also stressed the importance of emphasizing the huge demand for digital transformation and improving new digital infrastructure to facilitate economic and social upgrade of the country.
The MIIT will take a string of measures to optimize industrial development, such as expediting construction of 5G and industrial internet connecting people, machine and things, developing new types of intelligent computing facilities, advancing orderly construction and application of large data centers while upgrading micro and small data centers, enriching application scenarios and building a network security system.
Young people starting out in the jobs market face a hit to their prospects that could endure years after the Covid-19-induced downturn has run its course
A generation of angry youth raises the spectre of political instability
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein had grown used to jam-packed production schedules requiring her to put in long hours and run on little sleep. Until Covid-19 struck.
Today, the talented Indonesian is suddenly free. With five projects on hold and many more potentially cancelled, she now spends her time working on a personal project, doing research for her work and occasionally going for a ride on a bicycle.
“I feel calm and patient although I’m jobless. Maybe because it’s still the third week [of social distancing] and I still have enough savings from my previous work,” said the 26-year-old, who is from Yogyakarta. “But I imagine life will become tougher in the next few months if the situation gets worse.”
Like her, millions of youths are now part of a job market in Southeast Asia that has been ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic. They are the unlucky cohort of 2020 whose fortunes have changed so drastically, so quickly.
Freelance filmmaker Anita Reza Zein now spends most of her time at home as her projects have all been frozen due to the spread of Covid-19. Photo: Anita Reza Zein
Just three months ago, many eager graduates were about to partake in a strong economy and possibly land decent pay cheques.
Today, job offers are being withdrawn and hiring halted, leading to a spike in regional youth unemployment in the short term. In the long term, the effects on the Covid-19 cohort could lead to wider social and political problems.
JOB MARKETS SHUT
The virus’ impact on economies and the job market in the region has been swift and devastating. Borders have been slammed shut, workers ordered to stay at home, and thousands of companies closed every week.
The biggest problem is the lack of certainty about how long this will last – the longer the governments keep their countries on lockdown, the worse the economic impact.
In Indonesia, for example, the virus has caused almost 2.8 million people to lose their jobs, according to the Manpower Ministry and the Workers Social Security Agency. Likewise, in Malaysia, an estimated 2.4 million people are expected to lose their jobs, going by data from the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).
is bracing itself for a 5.3 per cent contraction in GDP for the full year, the worst since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
“We think about seven million jobs have been lost already, and the figure will hit 10 million if the outbreak drags on for two to three more months,” said Kalin Sarasin, council member and head of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Lockdown for 34 million people in capital Jakarta as Indonesia fights surge in coronavirus deaths
For young jobseekers, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic could hurt even more, with companies unwilling to open up new jobs for them.
“My clients who were open to fresh graduates previously have realigned searches [for candidates] who have at least one year of experience, as it’s a lot faster for someone with experience to scale up quickly and contribute,” said Joanne Pek, a recruiter at Cornerstone Global Partners’ Singapore office.
For many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) such as Singapore-based restaurant chain The Soup Spoon, saving jobs – rather than recruiting – is the priority.
“We don’t want to let anyone go during this period, so we’re focused on protecting jobs,” said co-founder and director Benedict Leow, who employs some 250 workers.
THE COVID-19 COHORT
The looming economic downturn could have distinct consequences for the Class of 2020 that will outlast the economic downturn itself.
For one thing, the paucity of jobs could result in the Covid-19 cohort becoming a “lost generation” of sorts, said Achim Schmillen, a senior economist at the World Bank Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice.
“Research from around the globe shows that graduating in a recession can have significant and long-lasting impacts that can affect the entire career. In particular, it can lead to large initial earnings losses which only slowly recede over time,” he said.
Coronavirus: why there’s no quick fix for a Covid-19 vaccine
12 Apr 2020
Economics professor Jeff Borland of the University of Melbourne said that international studies showed that what happened to people when they first entered the labour market would affect them for the rest of their working lives.
“Many international studies have shown that trying to move into employment during a major economic downturn cuts the probability of employment and future earnings for a decade or more.
“Why this occurs is less well-established. Reasons suggested include being forced to take lower-quality jobs, losing skills and losing psychological well-being,” he said in a piece published on The Conversation website.
Malaysia sets up Covid-19 test zones in the capital to hunt for ‘hidden’ coronavirus cases
This could create “lasting scarring” on the graduates this year, said labour economist Walter Theseira.
“If their careers start badly, it would affect their earnings for a number of years because they would lack the same experience as peers who started in a more secure position,” the associate professor of economics at Singapore University of Social Sciences said.
Shrinking salaries and the downsizing of companies mean that graduates might have to seek out professions outside their areas of study to survive, said Grace Lee Hooi Yean, head of the Economics Department at Monash University, Malaysia.
She said youth unemployment in the country, which stands at 11.67 per cent, could rise sharply.
“This looming crisis could trap a generation of educated and capable youth in a limbo of unmet expectations and lasting vulnerability if the graduates are not ready to face reality and adapt to the new challenges,” she said.
How long will a coronavirus vaccine take? A Q&A with Jerome Kim
12 Apr 2020
This is fast becoming the reality for final-year medical student Rebecca K. Somasundaram, who has been left without a job due to the pandemic.
After being offered a residency programme at a top specialist hospital in Kuala Lumpur, she was notified a month ago that her placement had been made void until further notice. This has thrown the 24-year-old’s plans into disarray as she was hoping to enter the workforce soon to pay off her student debts. Her plans to get married next year have also been put on hold temporarily.
“I am in constant talks with the hospital to see if there is any way I can join them soon but seeing how things are unfolding so quickly, I am slowly losing hope,” she said.
Over in Indonesia, the pandemic will trigger job losses on a national scale. To combat this, the government would need to introduce strong fiscal measures and beef up its social protection policies, said the country’s former minister of finance Muhamad Chatib Basri.
Many people on lower incomes tend to work in the extraction industry, such as mining and palm oil, and these are the first industries hit due to the global slowdown.
“The rich will be able to brave the storm, but the poor have no means to do so,” he said.
Singapore migrant workers under quarantine as coronavirus hits dormitories
SPECTRE OF 1997
With partial lockdowns imposed in the capital of Jakarta, more needs to be done to ensure that vulnerable citizens have access to food and financial support.
Without government intervention, economic woes could soon translate into political instability, a scenario last seen in the Asian financial crisis.
In 1997, waves of discontent sparked racial riots in Indonesia that toppled the country’s long-time strongman Suharto, while in Thailand a political crisis created the conditions for populist leader Thaksin Shinawatra to rise.
Rising discontent could have serious implications at the ballot boxes, warned Basri, who said young voters were a key voting bloc for President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
Coronavirus: food security, Asia’s next battle in a post-Covid world
6 Apr 2020
In last year’s general elections, Jokowi proved a hit among the lower-educated youth who had benefited from the creation of largely unskilled jobs during his tenure.
“With more young people expected to become unemployed in the coming months, things will only get worse from here,” said Basri, who added that the country’s youth unemployment stood at almost 20 per cent in 2018.
Indonesia, which has 268 million people and is Southeast Asia’s largest economy, had 133 million workers as of last August, according to official data.
Close to 10 per cent or about 12.27 million are university graduates but among this group, about 5.67 per cent or some 730,000 were unemployed. This was higher than the country’s overall unemployment rate at that time, which was 5.28 per cent.
‘Ghosts’ deployed to scare Indonesians into staying home to slow spread of the coronavirus
GETTING IT RIGHT
Economists say, however, that all is not lost. Much will depend on policy and how governments focus on battling the virus on the public health and economic fronts. They point to Singapore, which has launched a robust response to the crisis.
On April 6, the Singapore government announced its third budget in two months to help companies and households tide over the crisis. In all, Singapore’s total stimulus package, which aims to save jobs and keep funds flowing to companies, will cost the government a massive S$59.9 billion (US$42 billion).
The Singapore government was also preparing for a labour market that would be reluctant to hire fresh graduates on a full-time basis, said Theseira.
“There are plans to implement large-scale subsidised traineeships, which may be more palatable to companies which are worried about taking on permanent headcount this year,” he noted. “As the economic situation improves, they can be converted to permanent positions.”
The next coronavirus: how a biotech boom is boosting Asian defences
4 Mar 2020
While jobs were being created for fresh graduates, many would still have to temper their expectations, such as taking jobs with lower starting pay, said DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah.
“There are still some jobs to go around. There are still some companies that may need workers. But they will need to be realistic,” he said.
For instance, despite the downturn, Singapore telco Singtel expects to recruit over 300 fresh graduates for various permanent positions this year, according to Aileen Tan, the company’s Group Chief Human Resources Officer. Many of the new hires will be in new growth areas such as the Internet of Things, analytics and cloud.
The Singtel Comcentre building in Singapore. Photo: Roy Issa
Other companies that continue to hire include those in tech across the region, including e-commerce giant Shopee, food-delivery service Foodpanda and Amazon.
In Australia, Borland suggested helping young people to remain plugged into the labour market through government-funded paid internships, or even offering them loans to go for further studies and prevent a spell of unemployment.
For now, while some young jobseekers are taking a wait-and-see approach, the reality is hitting hard for others.
Final-year National University of Singapore student H.P. Tan had all but secured a job at a public relations firm last month, after three rounds of interviews.
The Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences undergraduate was rejected via an email from the agency, which said that they could no longer hire after Covid-19 started to drastically cut business.
“When I got that rejection, it was a turning point. I didn’t think I would be directly impacted,” said the 23-year-old.
“I also applied to a few other agencies but the response has been slow, so I am now freaking out at the possibility of not being able to find a job after graduation.”
China’s economy shrank for the first time in decades in the first quarter of the year, as the virus forced factories and businesses to close.
The world’s second biggest economy contracted 6.8% according to official data released on Friday.
The financial toll the coronavirus is having on the Chinese economy will be a huge concern to other countries.
China is an economic powerhouse as a major consumer and producer of goods and services.
This is the first time China has seen its economy shrink in the first three months of the year since it started recording quarterly figures in 1992.
“The GDP contraction in January-March will translate into permanent income losses, reflected in bankruptcies across small companies and job losses,” said Yue Su at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Last year, China saw healthy economic growth of 6.4% in the first quarter, a period when it was locked in a trade war with the US.
In the last two decades, China has seen average economic growth of around 9% a year, although experts have regularly questioned the accuracy of its economic data.
Its economy had ground to a halt during the first three months of the year as it introduced large-scale shutdowns and quarantines to prevent the virus spread in late January.
As a result, economists had expected bleak figures, but the official data comes in slightly worse than expected.
Among other key figures released in Friday’s report:
Factory output was down 1.1% for March as China slowly starts manufacturing again.
Retail sales plummeted 15.8% last month as many of shoppers stayed at home.
Unemployment hit 5.9% in March, slightly better than February’s all-time high of 6.2%.
Analysis: A 6% expansion wiped out
Robin Brant, BBC News, Shanghai
The huge decline shows the profound impact that the virus outbreak, and the government’s draconian reaction to it, had on the world’s second largest economy. It wipes out the 6% expansion in China’s economy recorded in the last set of figures at the end of last year.
Beijing has signalled a significant economic stimulus is on the way as it tries to stabilise its economy and recover. Earlier this week the official mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, the People’s Daily, reported it would “expand domestic demand”.
But the slowdown in the rest of the global economy presents a significant problem as exports still play a major role in China’s economy. If it comes this will not be a quick recovery.
On Thursday the International Monetary Fund forecast China’s economy would avoid a recession but grow by just 1.2% this year. Job figures released recently showed the official government unemployment figure had risen sharply, with the number working in companies linked to export trade falling the most.
China has unveiled a range of financial support measures to cushion the impact of the slowdown, but not on the same scale as other major economies.
“We don’t expect large stimulus, given that that remains unpopular in Beijing. Instead, we think policymakers will accept low growth this year, given the prospects for a better 2021,” said Louis Kuijs, an analyst with Oxford Economics.
Since March, China has slowly started letting factories resume production and letting businesses reopen, but this is a gradual process to return to pre-lockdown levels.
Media caption Why does China’s economy matter to you?
China relies heavily on its factories and manufacturing plants for economic growth, and has been dubbed “the world’s factory”.
Stock markets in the region showed mixed reaction to the Chinese economic data, with China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 0.9%.
In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, China pumped a 4 trillion yuan (US$575 billion) into its economy but it led to a mountain of local government debt
Various early indicators suggest China’s economy will slow in the first quarter of 2020, with some suggestions it will suffer a first contraction since 1976
President Xi Jinping said China must accelerate construction of “new infrastructures such as 5G networks and data centres” on top of speeding up “key projects and major infrastructure construction” in response to the economic impact caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Xinhua
China should not try to bolster its coronavirus-hit economy by again resorting to a massive debt-fuelled fiscal and monetary stimulus programme, according to a group of government advisers.
Various early indicators suggest China’s economy will slow in the first quarter of 2020, with some even suggesting it will suffer a first contraction since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976.
This raises the question if China will miss its key 2020 growth target, with voices on both sides of the debate discussing what stimulus policies are needed to offset the deep impact of the coronavirus.
China is already leaning towards some additional stimulus, with Premier Li Keqiang ordering the central bank pump additional money into the banking system, while President Xi Jinping has announced the need for more spending on “new infrastructure”.
Are there other ways out for China except stimulus policies?Liu Shijin
“Are there other ways out for China except stimulus policies?” rhetorically asked Liu Shijin, who previously worked closely with Vice-Premier Liu He, the top economic aide to Xi, at the Development Research Centre, the think tank attached to the State Council.
“If it really works, why can’t Japan and the United States reach a 5 per cent growth rate?”
It is believed China will need to achieve an average 5.6 per cent growth in 2020 to achieve its goal of doubling the size of its economy from 2010, which is a key goal for
China’s economy grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, and while it was the slowest in 29 years, the US economy only grew 2.3 per cent, with Japan’s estimated to grow by 0.9 per cent.
What is gross domestic product (GDP)?
Liu Shijin, who is now a deputy head of the China Development Research Foundation and a policy adviser to the People’s Bank of China, argued that a growth rate averaging 5 per cent over the next decade is sufficient for China to meet its development goals.
Growth in 2020, though, may well be below 5 per cent given that the impact of the coronavirus is “unprecedented” and larger than both severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003 and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Xi said earlier this month that China must accelerate construction of “new infrastructures such as 5G networks and data centres” on top of speeding up “key projects and major infrastructure construction already included in state plans” like additional high-speed railway lines in response to the economic impact caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
But as this will mainly rely on corporate and private investment, Liu Shijin feels it will be too small to engineer a major rebound in the growth rate.
When encountering challenges, we should first push forward new reform measures to unleash growth potential. Now is the right timeLiu Shijin
“It’s a different thing compared to real [government-led] economic stabilisation,” Liu Shijin told a web seminar hosted by Peking University’s National School of Development on Wednesday.
“When encountering challenges, we should first push forward new reform measures to unleash growth potential. Now is the right time.”
Instead, to support longer-term growth, China should put its efforts into the development of its “city clusters”, which could lead to higher spending on housing construction, urban infrastructure and manufacturing, added Liu Shijin, which would increase the growth rate by up to an additional percentage point over the next decade.
China has so far refrained from the massive stimulus programme it adopted in 2008 in response to the global financial crisis, which included a 4 trillion yuan (US$575 billion) plan that pumped cheap money into government-backed projects but also created a mountain of local government debt.
Trump bans travel from Europe to the US as coronavirus pandemic hits actor Tom Hanks and the NBA
Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said infrastructure construction will remain an important part of any plan to support growth.
“If the funding [for the 4 trillion yuan stimulus] had come solely from treasury bonds or local government bonds [rather than risky lending], there wouldn’t be so much shadow banking, unmanageable credit expansion, high leverage, implicit liabilities or financial risks,” he said.
“If the balance sheets of corporations, households and local governments can’t be repaired, it might lead to insufficient demand and a decline into a vicious [downward] cycle.”
Zhang, like Liu Shijin, is a key member of the China Finance 40 Forum, a group of state economists who advocate more structural reforms to support the Chinese economy. In particular, Zhang has set sights on reforms that would boost consumption, which accounted for 58 per cent of Chinese growth last year.
“The biggest weak link of the Chinese economy is that 200 to 300 million migrant workers can’t [legally] settle in big cities,” he said. “Only if they are able to settle in the city that China can be called a real well-off society. It will also boost the economy, lift demand for manufactured goods and unleashed consumption potential.”
Currently, most large Chinese cities only provide social services including health care and schooling to residents who have a legal permit, or hukou. Most migrant workers who come to the big cities for jobs are blocked from obtaining a hukou, meaning they have to travel back to their rural hometowns to have access to basic social services, so often do not settle in their adopted city.
In response to this idea, Xu Yuan, a professor at Peking University, called for the government to build 10 million affordable housing units annually to accommodate new urban citizens, which would address short-term economic pain and serve the nation’s long-term development.
China will release its annual growth target as well as other key goals, including the fiscal deficit ratio and local bond quota, at the National People’s Congress, although the annual parliamentary convention, previously scheduled for March 5, has been postponed, with a new date yet to be announced.
BEIJING, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) — China and Mauritius signed a free trade agreement (FTA) here Thursday, the first FTA between China and an African country, according to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC).
The China-Mauritius FTA is the 17th FTA signed by China.
The agreement covers trade in goods and services and investment and economic cooperation.
The FTA will not only provide a more powerful institutional guarantee to deepen bilateral economic and trade relations, but also boost China-Africa economic and trade cooperation, according to the MOC.
Negotiations on the China-Mauritius FTA were officially launched in December 2017. The two sides formally concluded the negotiations on Sept. 2, 2018, after four rounds of intensive negotiations.
In the area of trade in goods, China and Mauritius will eventually achieve zero tariffs on 96.3 percent and 94.2 percent of product tariff items, respectively, involving 92.8 percent of import volume for both countries from each other.
For the remaining tariff items of Mauritius, the tariffs will also be greatly cut, and the maximum tariffs for most of the involved products will not exceed 15 percent.
China’s main exports to Mauritius, such as iron and steel products, textiles and other light industrial products, will benefit from it.
Special sugar produced in Mauritius will also enter the Chinese market gradually.
The two sides also agreed on rules of origin, trade remedies, technical barriers to trade and sanitary and phytosanitary issues.
In the area of trade in services, China and Mauritius both promised to open up more than 100 sub-sectors.
Mauritius will open up more than 130 sub-sectors in important service fields such as communications, education, finance, tourism, culture, transportation and traditional Chinese medicine to China.
This is the highest level of opening up in the field of services in Mauritius so far.
In the field of investment, the agreement has been greatly upgraded from the 1996 China-Mauritius bilateral investment protection agreement in terms of protection scope, protection level and dispute settlement mechanism.
This is the first time that China has upgraded the previous investment protection agreement with an African country, which will not only provide stronger protection for Chinese enterprises to go to Mauritius, but also help them further boost investment cooperation in Africa through the platform of Mauritius, according to the MOC.
Meanwhile, the two sides also agreed to further deepen economic and technical cooperation in agriculture, finance, medical care, tourism and other fields.
The two sides will undergo respective domestic procedures for the agreement to take effect.
BEIJING, Oct. 2 (Xinhua) — While turning 70 often signals the beginning of a person’s twilight years, for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) it marks a golden age full of hope and vigor.
The PRC celebrated its 70th birthday on Oct. 1. China’s transformation from an agricultural society isolated from the West into the world’s second-largest economy open wide is nothing short of a miracle.
More importantly, it has charted a new path for developing countries to modernize.
Seven decades ago, the war-ravaged country started from scratch. Observers are astonished at China’s large-scale modernization, its reduction of the number of people living in poverty and the sheer volume of its consumer market. Their heads have been turned not only because of the speed of the transition but also by the unique path taken to realize this great transformation.
Reflecting on its past and present, and through experimentation, China has identified and will continue down the right path — socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Reform is the engine of China’s miracle. There is no ready-made solution for the development issues facing China. From creating special economic zones to building free trade pilot zones, from carrying out family-based production contracts to revitalizing state-owned enterprises, China has been one of the most successful countries in piloting reforms over the past decades. Now the reform is more in-depth and more comprehensive in economic, political, cultural, social and ecological sectors.
The Chinese government stresses being effective and responsive to the public interest. Development outlines are far-sighted. For example, the five-year plans are made to deal with comprehensive aspects that concern human development: food, transportation, communication, environment, health and education. These plans are a priority for the government.
Of course these achievements could never have been realized without the leadership of the CPC.
From the people and for the people, the CPC has always upheld its principle of striving for the happiness of the people and the rejuvenation of the nation.
At a life-or-death moment, the CPC shouldered the mission of saving the nation from existential peril. After 28 years of bloody struggle, it led the Chinese people to overthrow the “three mountains” placed on their heads and put an end to the semi-colonial and semi-feudal society of old China. Gone are the days where any attempt to bully China with “fists” or “intimidation” would succeed.
Despite overseas doubts, misunderstandings and predictions that its survival would be short-lived, the CPC has stunned the world with its leadership, innovative theories and ability to unite and organize the people.
It abolished the agricultural tax that had been in place for more than 2,600 years; it established a political system in which people are masters of their own affairs; it did its utmost to help people shake off poverty and keep nearly 1.4 billion people well-off.
No ruling party in the world can match the CPC’s record of adhering to the truth, versing itself in self-reform and self-purification, and turning impossibility into certainty in the face of difficulties and challenges, again and again.
The 70-year journey was never smooth. Trials and hardships abounded. The Chinese people dealt with floods and massive earthquakes and guarded against SARS and financial tsunamis. Yet these twists and turns never blocked China’s way forward but made it more sober, determined and mature.
Today, more than at any other time in history, China is closer to, more confident and more capable of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. However, lofty goals are never easily reached.
The world has been undergoing tremendous changes unseen in a century. Resistant external forces and headwinds still remain. “Zero-sum game” and “superior civilization” mentalities, among others, are prevailing.
The CPC will continue to lead the Chinese people to fight trade bullying, blackmailing and hegemonism. Only the CPC can lead China to emerge as a stronger country.
It all started long ago, and the journey is far from over.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 