Archive for ‘Economics’

28/04/2020

China’s April factory activity seen expanding as lockdowns ease – Reuters poll

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.

While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.

That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.

“The recovery so far has been led by a bounce-back in production, however, the growth bottleneck has decisively shifted to the demand side, as global growth has weakened and consumption recovery has lagged amid continued social distancing,” Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“The expected slump in external demand has likely capped further recovery in industrial production.”

The latest official data showed 84% of mid-sized and small business had reopened as of April 15, compared with 71.7% on March 24.

Hobbled by the coronavirus, China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first contraction since current quarterly records began.

That has left Chinese manufacturers with reduced export orders and a logistics logjam, as many exporters grapple with rising inventory, high costs and falling profits. Some have let workers go as part of the cost-cutting efforts.

A China-based brokerage Zhongtai Securities estimated that the country’s real unemployment rate, measured using international standards, could exceed 20%, equal to more than 70 million job losses and much higher than March’s official reading of 5.9%.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy head at the statistics bureau, said on Sunday migrant workers and college graduates are facing increasing pressures to secure jobs, while official jobless surveys show nearly 20% of employed workers not working in March.

Chinese authorities have rolled out more support to revive the economy. The People’s Bank of China earlier in April cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves and reduced the interest rate on lenders’ excess reserves.

Source: Reuters

27/04/2020

Chinese self-driving truck startup Inceptio raises $100 million – sources

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s Inceptio Technology, a startup developing self-driving trucks, has raised $100 million in its latest funding round from logistics firm GLP, its key strategic investor G7 and other investors, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The proceeds from its series A funding round will be used to further develop its technologies and to start commercial trials, said the sources, who declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

The company, which aims to operate a freight network with autonomous driving trucks in China from 2022, has partnerships with Dongfeng Automobile Co Ltd (600006.SS), Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (3808.HK) and Foton (600166.SS).

The two-year-old firm is developing autonomous driving software and an in-car computing system while the truckmakers are responsible for the vehicles’ platforms.

Inceptio declined to comment. G7 and Singapore-based GLP did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Inceptio focuses on level 3 and 4 technologies. A level 3 vehicle will enable drivers to turn their attention away from driving but they still need to take over if the car encounters a problem, while with level 4 technologies, there is no human intervention in most circumstances.

The trucking industry is expected to an earlier adopter of autonomous driving technology compared to passenger vehicle makers as driving on highways is more predictable than on busy city streets.

German automaker Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and U.S. postal giant United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N) have invested in self-driving trucks.

Source: Reuters

27/04/2020

China extends small businesses tax exemptions by four year

BEIJING, April 26 (Xinhua) — China announced Sunday to extend tax exemptions by an additional four years to further improve the inclusive finance service for smaller businesses.

The tax exemptions, which expired at the end of last year, will be extended to Dec. 31, 2023, according to a statement jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration.

In order to boost policy support and encourage financial institutions to step up financial services, Chinese authorities decided in 2017 that financial institutions will be exempt from value-added taxes (VAT) on income from interests for loans to small and micro-sized businesses and individually-owned businesses.

The joint statement also said the VAT, which was already collected but eligible to be waived, can be deducted in subsequent months or refunded.

Source: Xinhua

27/04/2020

South Korean officials call for caution amid reports that North Korean leader Kim is ill

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean officials are calling for caution amid reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be ill or is being isolated because of coronavirus concerns, emphasising that they have detected no unusual movements in North Korea.

At a closed door forum on Sunday, South Korea’s Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul, who oversees engagement with the North, said the government has the intelligence capabilities to say with confidence that there was no indications of anything unusual.

Rumours and speculation over the North Korean leader’s health began after he made no public appearance at a key state holiday on April 15, and has since remained out of sight.

South Korea media last week reported that Kim may have undergone cardiovascular surgery or was in isolation to avoid exposure to the new coronavirus.

Unification minister Kim cast doubt on the report of surgery, arguing that the hospital mentioned did not have the capabilities for such an operation.

Still, Yoon Sang-hyun, chairman of the foreign and unification committee in South Korea’s National Assembly, told a gathering of experts on Monday that Kim Jong Un’s absence from the public eye suggests “he has not been working as normally”.

“There has not been any report showing he’s making policy decisions as usual since April 11, which leads us to assume that he is either sick or being isolated because of coronavirus concerns,” Yoon said.

North Korea has said it has no confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, but some international experts have cast doubts on that claim.

On Monday, North Korean state media once again showed no new photos of Kim nor reported on his whereabouts.

However, they did carry reports that he had sent a message of gratitude to workers building a tourist resort in Wonsan, an area where some South Korean media reports have said Kim may be staying.

“Our government position is firm,” Moon Chung-in, the top foreign policy adviser to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, said in comments to news outlets in the United States.

“Kim Jong Un is alive and well. He has been staying in the Wonsan area since April 13. No suspicious movements have so far been detected.”

Satellite images from last week showed a special train possibly belonging to Kim at Wonsan, lending weight to those reports, according to 38 North, a Washington-based North Korea monitoring project.

Though the group said it was probably the North Korean leader’s personal train, Reuters has not been able to confirm that independently, or whether he was in Wonsan.

A spokeswoman for the Unification Ministry said on Monday she had nothing to confirm when asked about reports that Kim was in Wonsan.

Last week China dispatched a team to North Korea including medical experts to advise on Kim Jong Un, according to three people familiar with the situation.

Reuters was unable to immediately determine what the trip by the Chinese team signalled in terms of Kim’s health.

On Friday a South Korean source told Reuters their intelligence was that Kim Jong Un was alive and would likely make an appearance soon.

Experts have cautioned that Kim has disappeared from state media coverage before, and that gathering accurate information in North Korea is notoriously difficult.

North Korea’s state media last reported on Kim’s whereabouts when he presided over a meeting on April 11.

Kim, believed to be 36, vanished from state media for more than a month in 2014 and North Korean state TV later showed him walking with a limp.

Source: Reuters

26/04/2020

Wuhan declared free of Covid-19 as last patients leave hospital after months-long struggle against coronavirus

  • City at centre of outbreak finally able to declare itself clear of disease after months in lockdown and thousands of deaths
  • Risk of infection remains, however, with some patients testing positive for coronavirus that causes disease without showing symptoms
Ferries and other public transport services resumed in Wuhan last week. Photo: Xinhua
Ferries and other public transport services resumed in Wuhan last week. Photo: Xinhua

The city of Wuhan, the initial epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, no longer has any Covid-19 patients in hospital after the last 12 were discharged on Sunday.

Their release ended a four-month nightmare for the city, where the disease was first detected in December. The number of patients being treated for Covid-19, the disease caused by a new coronavirus, peaked on February 18 at 38,020 – nearly 10,000 of whom were in severe or critical condition.

“With the joint efforts of Wuhan and the national medical aid given to Hubei province, all cases of Covid-19 in Wuhan were cleared as of April 26,” Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission said on Sunday afternoon.

The announcement came only one day after the city discharged the last patient who had been in a severe condition. That patient also was the last severe case in Hubei province.

The last patient discharged from Wuhan Chest Hospital, a 77-year-old man surnamed Ding, twice tested negative for Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, and was released at noon on Sunday.

“I missed my family so much!” Ding told Changjing Daily.

Another unidentified patient exclaimed as he left the hospital: “The air outside is so fresh! The weather is so good today!”

Wuhan faced a long journey to bring its patient count down to zero.

The city of 11 million, the capital of Hubei province and a transport hub for central China, was put under a strict lockdown on January 23 that barred anyone from entering or exiting the city without official approval for 76 days until it was officially lifted on April 8.

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Residents were ordered to stay in their apartments as the city stopped public transport and banned private cars from city streets. As the epidemic worsened, more than 42,000 medical staff from across the country were sent to the city and to Hubei province to help ease the burden on the local health care system.

Wuhan was the hardest hit city in China, accounting for 50,333 of the 82,827 locally transmitted Covid-19 cases recorded in China. More than 4,600 died in the country from the disease.

On March 13, the city reported for the first time that there were no new suspected cases of the infection, and five days later there were no confirmed cases.

The number of discharged patients bottomed out at 39.1 per cent at the end of February, gradually climbing to 92.2 per cent by last Thursday.

“Having the patients in the hospital cleared on April 26 marks a major achievement for the city’s Covid-19 treatment,” the Wuhan Health Commission said in a statement.

However, having no severe cases in hospital does not mean all the discharged patients will require no further treatment as they may still need further care.

“Clearing all the severe cases marks a decisive victory for the battle to safeguard Wuhan,” health minister Ma Xiaowei told state broadcaster China Central Television on Saturday.

“Some patients who have other conditions are being treated in specialised hospitals. It has been properly arranged.”

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Ten patients aged between 42 and 85 who have been declared coronavirus-free are still in intensive care at the city’s Tongji Hospital where they are being treated for kidney problems and other complications arising from Covid-19. Some still need ventilators to help them breathe.

These 10 patients are under 24-hour care, with 190 nurses on four-hour rotations. There are other patients in a similar condition in two other hospitals in Wuhan, according to the Hubei Broadcasting and Television Network.

However, the discharge of the last batch of Covid-19 patients does not mean that the risk of infection is gone.

The city reported 20 new cases of people testing positive for Sars-CoV-2, the official name for the coronavirus that causes the disease, but who do not yet show symptoms.

There are 535 such carriers under medical observation. Past data shows some of these asymptomatic carriers will develop symptoms, and so will be counted as Covid-19 patients under China’s diagnosis and treatment plan.

China’s coronavirus infection curve has flattened out with about 694 imported cases of Covid-19 on top of about 800 locally transmitted ones now under treatment.

The national health commission spokesman warned that people still need to be on high alert as the virus is continuing to spread around the globe, with no sign yet of a slowdown.

“[We] must not drop our guard and loosen up. [We] must discover cases in time and deal with them quickly,” Mi said, citing the continued pressure from cases imported by people returning from overseas.

“The next step will be to implement the requirements of the central government and continue to guard against imported cases and a rebound of domestic transmitted cases.”

Source: SCMP

26/04/2020

China’s smog-prone Hebei saw pollution fall 15% from October-March

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s smog-prone northern province of Hebei met its air quality targets by a big margin over the winter after concerted efforts to tackle emissions, a local official said on Sunday, without mentioning coronavirus-related factory shutdowns.

Average PM2.5 concentrations over the October-March period dropped 15% from a year earlier to 61 micrograms per cubic metre, while sulphur dioxide also fell by a third, said He Litao, vice-head of the provincial environmental bureau.

Most experts have attributed the significant decline in air pollution throughout China in the first quarter to the coronavirus outbreak and tough containment measures, which saw cities and entire  provinces locked down and sharply reduced traffic and industrial activity throughout the country.

With millions staying at home, concentrations of lung-damaging PM2.5 particles fell by nearly 15% in more than 300 Chinese cities in the first three months of 2020.

Shanghai saw emissions fall by nearly 20% in the first quarter, while in Wuhan, where the pandemic originated, monthly averages dropped more than a third compared to last year.

However, He of the Hebei environmental bureau attributed the local decline in pollution to the “conscientious implementation” of government decisions even in the face of unfavourable weather conditions.

According to a winter action plan published last year, 10 cities in Hebei were expected to cut lung-damaging small particles known as PM2.5 by 1%-6% compared to the previous year.

Despite the decline, average PM2.5 was still much higher than China’s official standard of 35 micrograms, and the recommended World Health Organization level of 10 micrograms.

Source: Reuters

25/04/2020

Coronavirus: China’s belt and road plan may take a year to recover from slower trade, falling investment

  • But trade with partner countries might not be as badly affected as with countries elsewhere in the world, observers say
  • China’s trade with belt and road countries rose by 3.2 per cent in the January-March period, but second-quarter results will depend on how well they manage to contain the pathogen, academic says
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
China’s investment in foreign infrastructure as part of its Belt and Road Initiative has been curtailed because of the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Xinhua
The coronavirus pandemic is set to cause a slump in Chinese investment in its signature

Belt and Road Initiative

and a dip in trade with partner countries that could take a year to overcome, analysts say.

But the impact of the health crisis on China’s economic relations with nations involved in the ambitious infrastructure development programme might not be as great as on those that are not.
China’s total foreign trade in the first quarter of 2020 fell by 6.4 per cent year on year, according to official figures from Beijing.
Trade with the United States, Europe and Japan all dropped in the period, by 18.3, 10.4 and 8.1 per cent, respectively, the commerce ministry said.
By comparison, China’s trade with belt and road countries increased by 3.2 per cent in the first quarter, although the growth figure was lower than the 10.8 per cent reported for the whole of 2019.
China’s trade with 56 belt and road countries – located across Africa, Asia, Europe and South America – accounts for about 30 per cent of its total annual volume, according to the commerce ministry.

Despite the first-quarter growth, Tong Jiadong, a professor of international trade at Nankai University in Tianjin, said he expected China’s trade with belt and road countries to fall by between 2 and 5 per cent this year.

His predictions are less gloomy than the 13 to 32 per cent contraction in global trade forecast for this year by the World Trade Organisation.

“A drop in [China’s total] first-quarter trade was inevitable but it slowly started to recover as it resumed production, especially with Southeast Asian, Eastern European and Arab countries,” Tong said.

“The second quarter will really depend on how the epidemic is contained in belt and road countries.”

Nick Marro, Hong Kong-based head of global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said he expected China’s total overseas direct investment to fall by about 30 per cent this year, which would be bad news for the belt and road plan.

“This will derive from a combination of growing domestic stress in China, enhanced regulatory scrutiny over Chinese investment in major international markets, and weakened global economic prospects that will naturally depress investment demand,” he said.

The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed, while infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including the Payra coal-fired power plant, have been put on hold.

The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
The development of the Chinese built and operated special economic zone in the Cambodian town of Sihanoukville is reported to have slowed. Photo: AFP
Marro said the reduction of capital and labour from China might complicate other projects for key belt and road partner, like Pakistan, which is home to infrastructure projects worth tens of billions of US dollars, and funded and built in large part by China.

“Pakistan looks concerning, particularly in terms of how we’ve assessed its sovereign and currency risk,” Marro said.

“Public debt is high compared to other emerging markets, while the coronavirus will push the budget deficit to expand to 10 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] this year.”

Last week, Pakistan asked China for a 10-year extension to the repayment period on US$30 billion worth of loans used to fund the development of infrastructure projects, according to a report by local newspaper Dawn.

China’s overseas investment has been falling steadily from its peak in 2016, mostly as a result of Beijing’s curbs on capital outflows.

Last year, the direct investment by Chinese companies and organisations other than banks in belt and road countries fell 3.8 per cent from 2018 to US$15 billion, with most of the money going to South and Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Tong said the pandemic had made Chinese investors nervous about putting their money in countries where disease control measures were becoming increasingly stringent, but added that the pause in activity would give all parties time to regroup.

“Investment in the second quarter will decline and allow time for the questions to be answered,” he said.

“Past experience along the belt and road has taught many lessons to both China and its partners, and forced them to think calmly about their own interests. The epidemic provides both parties with a good time for this.”

Dr Frans-Paul van der Putten, a senior research fellow at Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands, said China’s post-pandemic strategy for the belt and road in Europe
might include a shift away from investing in high-profile infrastructure projects like ports and airports.
Investors might instead cooperate with transport and logistics providers rather than invest directly, he said.
“Even though in the coming years the amount of money China loans and invests abroad may be lower than in the peak years around 2015-16, I expect it to maintain the belt and road plan as its overall strategic framework for its foreign economic relations,” he said.
Source: SCMP
25/04/2020

Southwest China city to offer e-vouchers to boost consumption

KUNMING, April 25 (Xinhua) — Kunming, capital of southwest China’s Yunnan Province announced Friday it will issue e-vouchers worth 100 million yuan (about 14.12 million U.S. dollars) to promote consumption.

According to the Kunming Municipal Bureau of Commerce, the e-vouchers can be used for consumption in tourism, catering, and sports. The city will also issue special e-vouchers to groups of needy people.

The e-vouchers will be issued through an app online from April 28 to 30. Citizens can use the e-vouchers from May 1 to 31.

Industries in the city including tourism, catering and sports were seriously affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the last few months.

Source: Xinhua

24/04/2020

India’s new bridge in Himalayas could potentially reignite China border dispute

  • The new bridge, which can bear 40 tons of weight, was built in Arunachal Pradesh in India’s remote northeast, a region claimed by China
  • Relations are already strained after China accused India of blocking its companies by tightening laws for foreign investment
An Indian girl poses for photographs with an Indian flag at the Indo-China border in Arunachal Pradesh. Photo: AP
An Indian girl poses for photographs with an Indian flag at the Indo-China border in Arunachal Pradesh. Photo: AP
India

has opened a new all-weather access point in a disputed part of its border with China to enable faster movement of troops and artillery, another potential irritant in

relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours

.

The new bridge, which can bear 40 tons of weight, was built in Arunachal Pradesh in India’s remote northeast, a region claimed by China that is near the scene of previous clashes. Border intrusions have risen 50 per cent in 2019 compared to the previous year, people with knowledge of the matter said.

“That part of the border has always had a tendency to friction point between India and China. Lack of reliable and all weather connectivity was vulnerability,” said Nitin Gokhale, a New Delhi-based strategic affairs expert. “The new bridge and improved road overcomes that and ensures uninterrupted supply to troops.”

A Chinese soldier stands guard while Indian soldiers work near their shared border. Photo: AP
A Chinese soldier stands guard while Indian soldiers work near their shared border. Photo: AP
The new access along the border with China comes amid heightened tensions between the two nations after Beijing accused India of blocking its companies in the South Asian nation after New Delhi tightened laws for foreign investment. The bridge is located in a region that witnessed a months-long military stand-off in 2017 over the Doklam plateau, claimed by China and Bhutan, India’s ally. It was one of the most serious flare-ups since China won a border war with India in 1962.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a message requesting comment.

India claims the Chinese army violated the 3,488km-long undemarcated border, parts of which are disputed, more than 600 times, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is not public.

“India and China have different perceptions of the border,” Indian Army spokesman Aman Anand said on Thursday. “Perceived transgressions are result of the perceived boundary.”

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is ramping up its infrastructure along the border, which it says isn’t aimed at any particular country, but rather the development of remote border areas. It has completed 74 strategic roads along the eastern border, with plans afoot to finish 20 more by next year, the people said. It will reduce time taken to move and material by half and help 431 villages that lie across the region during the Covid-19 outbreak.
its law on foreign investment

by making it mandatory for companies from countries that share a land border to acquire local firms only after seeking an approval from the government. The move, which cuts the risk of opportunistic takeovers as the coronavirus outbreak drives down valuations of Indian companies, had so far applied only to FDI from Bangladesh and Pakistan. India shares its land border with seven countries, including China.

The new bridge opened by the India also strides one of the main access routes of the Chinese Army into India from Tibet.

Source: SCMP

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