Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s factory gate prices fell the most in five months in March, with deflation deepening and set to worsen in coming months as the economic damage wrought by the coronavirus outbreak at home and worldwide shuts down many countries.
The world’s second-largest economy is trying to restart its engines after weeks of near paralysis to contain the pandemic that had severely restricted business activity, flow of goods and the daily life of people.
Friday’s data from the National Bureau of Statistics suggested a durable recovery was some way off, with China’s producer price index (PPI) falling 1.5% from a year earlier, the biggest decline since October last year. It compared with a median forecast of a 1.1% fall tipped by a Reuters poll of analysts and a 0.4% drop in February.
Headline consumer inflation also eased somewhat last month, partly led by government control measures, while core prices remained benign, leaving more room for monetary easing, some analysts said.
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The overall decline in the factory gate gauge was exacerbated by a slump in global oil and commodities prices, which filtered through to crude oil, steel and non-ferrous metal industries, the statistics bureau said in a statement accompanying the data.
“The issue of having more supply than demand, and persistently low oil prices, will intensify deflationary pressures,” said Yang Yewei, a Beijing-based analyst with Southwest Securities.
“Work resumptions on the production side are faster than the repair in demand. Downstream demand is recovering slowly and still remains weak,” he said.
The oil and gas extraction sector had the biggest year-on-year price fall of 21.7%, among the 40 major industrial sectors surveyed, deteriorating sharply from a 0.4% drop in the previous month.
The stringent travel and transport curbs have now been lifted across much of the country including Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak where the virus first emerged in late 2019. So far the virus has killed more than 3,300 and infected over 81,000 people in the country.
Analysts expect a deep first-quarter economic contraction in China and have grown increasingly pessimistic about the country’s prospects for 2020 due to the pandemic’s sweeping global impact.
Many economists and policymakers are forecasting a steep global recession this year as numerous countries are forced into lockdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus, severely curtailing business activity in a major blow to jobs and incomes.
Worldwide, the virus has killed around 95,000 people and infected more than 1.5 million. Policymakers globally have responded to the crisis by launching an unprecedented package of stimulus measures, injecting trillions of dollars to backstop their economies that have been brought to a virtual standstill.
Beijing has also rolled out a series of fiscal and monetary support steps, and sources have told Reuters that policymakers are readying more stimulus in the coming months to stabilise growth and prevent mass unemployment.
China’s consumer prices rose 4.3% from a year earlier in March, compared with a 4.8% gain tipped by a Reuters poll and a 5.2% increase in February, as logistics and transport conditions improved and government price control measures kicked in.
But food prices still rose over 18% from a year earlier, led by a 116.4% jump in pork prices, the data showed. The virus outbreak has pushed up prices of some food items, such as pork and vegetables.
Core inflation – which excludes food and energy prices – remained benign last month at 1.2%，but it still edged up from 1% in February.
Embassy says those flown back must pay for themselves, and praises the US health system, in a departure from the war of words with Washington
More than a million Chinese students remain overseas, but China is on alert against the threat of imported infections
China has drastically cut flights to try to prevent people who arrive from abroad importing the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Chinese students could be flown home from coronavirus hotspots such as the United States but will have to pay their own expenses, amid efforts by Beijing to persuade some to remain overseas rather than risk bringing the infection with them.
A statement posted on the website of China’s Washington embassy on Monday said that the Chinese government was aware that many school and university students had encountered difficulties in travelling back to China and was taking steps to arrange charter flights for those who needed to return urgently.
With the initial coronavirus outbreak appearing to have been largely contained in mainland China, some Chinese students have travelled home despite soaring air ticket prices and the requirement that those who have been overseas enter quarantine.
Students brought back on charter flights would still need to pay for the ticket and the costs of the mandatory 14-day quarantine upon arrival in China.
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More than 1.6 million Chinese are studying overseas, including about 410,000 in the US. At least 1.42 million Chinese students remained overseas, vice foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu said on Thursday.
Having initially boasted of its success in stopping the virus, Beijing has become notably cautious in recent weeks about welcoming overseas students back home, especially with imported cases continuing to rise.
China’s foreign ministry and its overseas missions have urged students considering travelling home to exercise caution. The embassy in the US issued a notice on Friday speaking highly of the American medical system and its response to the pandemic, in a marked departure from Beijing’s narrative, which has included pinning the blame for the pandemic on the United States.
Friday’s embassy notice also dismissed rumours that Chinese students had been targeted because of the coronavirus during the closures of universities, and pledged help if students had trouble communicating with universities about campus accommodation.
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Ma said that most overseas students had heeded his government’s advice and chosen not to go back to China, but an online survey late last month that was cited by Caixin magazine on Saturday showed nearly 60 per cent of Chinese students in the US wanted to return home.
Most of the 4,000 students polled said they were unable to make the trip because of concerns about contracting the coronavirus during the journey and air fares that had more than doubled recently. Both China and the US have drastically cut back long-haul international flights.
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Students under 18 years of age who want to return to China are required by the embassy to register online.
The initial evacuation plan announced on Monday proposed to prioritise school-age children whose parents were not in the US with them. The proposed arrangement appeared to include students from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer psychology across the world, experts say
Complexity of the crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make a consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict
The coronavirus has caused panic buying around the world as consumers frantically stockpile of goods such as toilet paper, hand sanitisers and masks. Illustration: Brian Wang
Before the coronavirus crisis began rippling through the global economy, Susan Wang had big plans for 2020.
Not only was she going to buy a new Apple MacBook and iPad, plus a projector so she could host friends for movies at home, but she was set on making a career move.
“I was planning to change my job, but my headhunter told me that all recruitment has been postponed to the second quarter,” said the 27-year-old who works for a British company in Hong Kong.
“Our headquarters in London has a plan for redundancy, too. It is better to save some money in case I get laid off.”
As Covid-19 spreads across the world, sending stock markets reeling and prompting big companies to slash jobs, Wang has become increasingly frugal like scores of other consumers from China to the United States.
She has stopped eating at restaurants and now tries to keep her weekly food bill under HK$500 (US$64), whereas in the past she wouldn’t think twice about spending HK$100 per meal.
Amid mounting uncertainty, the coronavirus pandemic – which has claimed the lives of more than 41,000 people and infected at least 842,000 worldwide – is fundamentally changing consumer behaviour in Asia, Europe and North America.
Consumer experts said the 2009 global financial crisis, the Great Depression that started in 1929 and the September 11 terrorist attacks give some clues about how and when global consumption might recover. But the complexity of this crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make this consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict, they added.
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“The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode,” said Jesse Garcia, a Los Angeles-based consumer psychologist, who is also the CEO of market consulting firm My Marketing Auditors.
plummeted a record 44 per cent in February and those figures are only expected to get worse, with sales forecast to slump between 30 and 40 per cent in the first half of the year, according to the Hong Kong Retail Management Association.
In the US, retail sales dropped by 0.5 per cent in February, even before many states had issued stay-at-home orders to protect the world’s largest economy. The decline was the biggest fall since December 2018.
Experts say non-essential products and services are set to be worst affected by the coronavirus pandemic, while goods and services that can be consumed at home will see a spike in sales.
The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode – Jesse Garcia
“Online consumer behaviour is frenetic,” said Ross Steinman, a professor of psychology at Widener University in the US state of Pennsylvania. “Consumers are refreshing and refreshing and refreshing websites to secure grocery delivery times, purchase paper towels from their usual big box retailer and scavenge for rice and canned soup from third party sellers on Amazon.
“A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism.”
So far, one of the biggest shortages for consumers is toilet paper. Television stations across the globe have beamed images of empty supermarket shelves and huge queues as people hoard toilet paper rolls, masks and hand sanitiser.
The frantic stockpiling can be explained by a psychological concept called informational conformity, said Vicki Yeung, associate professor at the Department of Applied Psychology at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
A pronounced spike in coronavirus cases will only amplify the freneticism – Ross Steinman
“When people lack knowledge and are in an uncertain situation, they tend to follow the group’s behaviour and blindly conform, but once they obtain more information, and digest and process the situation, the panic gradually fades away,” she said.
“During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared.”
Unlike other recent global crises such as the September 11 attacks, the coronavirus is less a one-time sharp shock to the system and more of a rolling source of anxiety that could retreat and resurface repeatedly, consumer behaviour experts said.
This was the pattern with the Black Death plague that hit Europe in 1347 and returned episodically over many years, ultimately killing millions of people.
During this Covid-19 pandemic, people generally feel jittery and anxious because they feel their sense of control has disappeared – Vicki Yeung
“It may be we’ll have to shut down things again in October or August. And this could go on for years,” said Charley Ballard, an economist with Michigan State University in the US. “The more that happens, the more damage it does to buoyant consumer psychology.”
Furthermore, relative to the 2009 financial crisis and even the Great Depression, when much of the damage was concentrated at least initially in the financial sector, this crisis has seen virtually the entire economy grind to a halt all at the same time, devastating employment and consumption.
Last week, a record 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits within one week, as restaurants, hotels, barber shops, gyms and retail outlets shut down in a nationwide bid to stem the pandemic. The previous record of 695,000 was set in 1982.
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs predicted the US jobless rate will hit 15 per cent in the second quarter of this year from the coronavirus economic freeze, and could rise further beyond that to near the historic peak of 24.9 per cent seen in 1933 during the Great Depression. Economists at the St. Louis district of the US Federal Reserve projected unemployment could cost as many as 47 million jobs in the US this year, sending the unemployment rate past 32 per cent before making a sharp recovery.
US now has world’s most coronavirus cases, surpassing China
China’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.2 per cent for January and February from 5.2 per cent in December and 5.3 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest level since records began in 2016, but did not include China’s estimated 291 million migrant workers.
Consumer spending accounts for more than 60 per cent of the Chinese economy and drives 70 per cent of the US economy. But with the pandemic causing many people to go into hibernation and likely to lead to cycles of job cuts, economists have predicted a consumer-led global recession by the second quarter of this year.
Just how long it will take for consumer behaviour to return to normal depends on each person’s psychological resilience, including how quickly they can adapt to change, how optimistic they are and whether they can adopt strategies to regain a sense of control, Yeung said.
Anirban Mukhopadhyay, chair professor of marketing at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said as long as the coronavirus threat was still present, people would remain fearful to some extent. But he added that people were resilient.
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“Human beings adapt to events and stimuli over time,” Mukhopadhyay said. “Research has shown that even people who win lotteries tend to return to their earlier levels of life satisfaction after some months, as do people who have to have amputations.
“So even if the source of the fear does not go away, we learn to live with it.”
Ballard, from Michigan State University, estimated it could take upwards of two years for American consumers to feel secure enough in their jobs and gain enough confidence to fully open their wallets. A longer and more episodic duration for the disease could push that higher, he added.
Further complicating the consumer picture, he said, is that many supply chains are at risk of breaking. And consumers will be wary of spending for a while in many traditional areas, including crowded sporting events and concerts, restaurants and flights.
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Some experts have even suggested that consumer behaviour may be permanently changed as a result of the pandemic.
“It seems very unlikely that people will get back to life as it was before, once the coronavirus is over,” said Andreas Kappes, a lecturer in psychology at City University of London.
“People’s behaviour is extremely orthodox, often referred to as the status quo bias and captured in expressions like ‘past behaviour best predicts future behaviour.’ Now, the crisis forces us to change our behaviour, radically, and we might discover that new way suits us better.”
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours and its infections are 20 per cent of the global total
China to hold day of mourning for victims; Singapore announces fifth death and school closures; Boris Johnson says he’s still ill; Angela Merkel ends quarantine
A group of nurses gather in the Bronx, New York, for a strike about the lack of personal protective equipment, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world soared past one million on Thursday and deaths topped 50,000 as Europe reeled from the pandemic and the
reported the highest daily death toll so far of any country.
Despite more than half the planet imposing some form of lockdown, the virus claimed thousands more lives, with the US, Spain and Britain seeing the highest number of daily fatalities yet.
Covid-19 is currently spreading the most rapidly in the US, where there have been 243,453 infections and 5,926 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
The US saw 1,169 deaths in 24 hours, the highest one-day toll recorded in any country since the global pandemic began. The grim record was previously held by Italy, where 969 people died on March 27.
Here are other developments:
Singapore shuts schools, workplaces in ‘circuit-breaking’ move
Singapore’s coronavirus case number hits 1,000 after city state reports biggest single-day spike
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Friday afternoon announced most workplaces would be shut from April 7, and schools would be closed from April 8, in its
The city state has 1,114 infections and five people have died. More than 200 have recovered.
Essential services such as food establishments, markets and supermarkets, clinics, hospitals, utilities, transport and banking services will remain open.
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Lee on Friday said instead of tightening measures incrementally over the next few weeks, Singapore should “make a decisive move now, to pre-empt escalating infections”.
“Looking at the trend, I am worried that unless we take further steps, things will gradually get worse, or another big cluster may push things over the edge,” Lee said, describing the new measures as a “circuit breaker”.
Medical experts say the stringent measures require the cooperation of citizens to stay at home, given that local infection clusters have ballooned from six at the end of February to more than 20 currently.
People stand behind markers as they practice physical distancing while queuing up to buy food at a Singapore supermarket on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The Lion City has launched a website to help individuals with symptoms that might be related to Covid-19 decide whether they should see a doctor or not.
On the Covid-19 Symptom Checker website, individuals will be prompted to answer a short list of questions including their age, if they have any chronic diseases, if they have travelled outside Singapore in the past 14 days, or have been in touch with a suspected or confirmed Covid-19 case.
They will also be asked to choose which symptoms they are experiencing from a predetermined list including symptoms such as cough, difficulty breathing and the loss of taste/smell. The site will then recommend what the person should do next. This includes whether they should see a doctor or continue to monitor their symptoms.
China to hold day of mourning for Covid-19 victims
At 10am on April 4, 2020, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence. Photo: EPA-EFE
Flags will be flown at half-mast across the country and at embassies overseas, while all public entertainment will be halted for the day, said the State Council, China’s cabinet, on Friday.
At 10am, the public will be asked to observe three minutes of silence, during which sirens will blast out across the country and the owners of cars and boats should sound their vehicles’ horns, the council said.
Saturday also coincides with Ching Ming, or the Tomb-sweeping Festival, when Chinese traditionally gather to remember their ancestors.
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Mainland China on Friday reported 31 new confirmed coronavirus cases, including two locally transmitted infections, the country’s National Health Commission said.
It also reported four new deaths as of Thursday, all in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak began, the commission said in a statement. The total number of infections now stands at 81,620 and 3,322 deaths have been reported from mainland China to date.
The commission said 60 new asymptomatic coronavirus patients were also reported on Thursday.
UK’s Boris Johnson still ill with virus fever
Boris Johnson #StayHomeSaveLives
✔@BorisJohnson
Another quick update from me on our campaign against #coronavirus.
You are saving lives by staying at home, so I urge you to stick with it this weekend, even if we do have some fine weather.#StayHomeSaveLives
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in isolation with a high temperature, more than a week after testing positive for coronavirus.
Johnson made the announcement in a video posted on Twitter on Friday, saying that even after seven days, “alas I still have one of the symptoms, a minor symptom: I still have a temperature”.
“In accordance with government advice I must continue my self-isolation,” he said.
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With coronavirus deaths still rising, the PM is anxious to drum home his message that Britons must obey government orders to stay in their homes as much as possible.
On March 23 he ordered a national lockdown, with the closure of schools, stores, restaurants and leisure facilities. Under emergency laws, police have the power to fine individuals who flout the rules and break up gatherings of more than two people in public.
Germany to crack down on people flouting physical distancing rules
Police officers ask people to disperse as they gather at a park in Berlin, Germany, on March 28, 2020. Photo: Reuters
People in Germany risk being fined up to €500 (US$540) for standing too close to each other from Friday, as officials crack down on people flouting rules brought in to control the coronavirus outbreak.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has ordered people not leave their homes unless they have an exceptional reason such as grocery shopping, exercise or medical appointments.
Gatherings of more than two people are banned and a distance of at least 1.5 metres must be kept from others at all times.
Local governments have the power to set fines for transgressors, with city officials in Berlin saying their fines would be as high as 500 euros. Similar announcements have come from across Germany’s 16 states.
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According to figures by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Friday, Germany has recorded more than 79,000 cases of the novel coronavirus, and 1,017 deaths, although RKI president Lothar Wieler warned on Friday that the actual number of casualties could be much higher.
“We won’t manage to test every single person … I assume we will have more deaths than are officially recorded,” he said.
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Meanwhile, Merkel on Friday left her Berlin home for the first time in almost two weeks, after she was forced into quarantine following contact with an infected doctor.
Merkel was tested several times, with all tests coming back negative.
The 65-year-old leader has returned to her office, where she will continue to observe social distancing rules and lead the country via video and audio conferencing, her spokesman said.
Spain records over 900 virus deaths
Members of the Red Cross prepare food for families in need at a food bank in Ronda, Spain, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Reuters
on Friday recorded over 900 new coronavirus deaths over the past day, bringing the number of casualties to 10,935, in the first decline in new Covid-19 deaths in four days.
The country has the world’s second-highest death toll after Italy, but health ministry figures confirm a consistent downward trend in the rate of new cases and fatalities.
The 932 deaths on Friday was a smaller gain than Thursday’s 950, according to Health Ministry data. The number of confirmed cases also increased by less than the previous day, with 7,472 new infections taking the total to 117,710.
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Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government has been struggling to bring the virus under control. Hospitals are overwhelmed, nursing homes have been especially hard hit in a nation with one of the world’s oldest populations, and the army has been mobilised.
Sanchez may extend the current four-week lockdown for another two weeks beyond April 11, Spanish media reported on Friday. The stay-at-home order limits people’s movement to shopping for food and essentials, while some workers are also allowed to circulate.
Passengers disembark from virus-hit cruise ship in Florida
The Zaandam cruise ship docked in Florida on Friday. Photo: TNS via ZUMA Wire/dpa
Passengers from an ill-fated cruise were carefully freed from their cabins and allowed to disembark on Friday, following the removal of 14 critically-ill people who were wheeled off to Florida hospitals bracing for an onslaught of coronavirus patients.
The exodus from the Zaandam and its sister ship the Rotterdam, both operated by Holland America Line, was expected to continue throughout the day.
Floridians were getting off first, followed by other passengers. Buses were taking people healthy enough to travel directly to the airport, where they will board chartered flights home without going through the terminal.
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“This is a humanitarian situation, and the County Commission’s top priority is protecting our 1.9 million residents while providing a contained disembarkation option for people on board who need to get safely home,” Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said in a statement late on Thursday.
Four people have died on the Zaandam, for reasons not yet disclosed. All told, 107 passengers and 143 crew reported flu-like symptoms during the voyage, but many have since recovered.
It was unclear when the bodies of four passengers who died on the Zaandam would be removed from the ship, which set sail on March 7, the day before the US State Department warned people against cruising during the pandemic.
South Korea’s infections top 10,000
South Korean hospital’s ‘phone booth’ coronavirus tests
on Friday said the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country has surpassed 10,000, with 174 deaths linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the new virus.
The Health and Welfare Ministry reported 86 new coronavirus infections over 24 hours to the end of Thursday, taking the total to 10,062 cases. It also logged five more deaths.
The numbers confirmed an encouraging stabilisation of numbers, which have hovered around the 100 mark for the past three weeks, a clear downward trend which began in March after numbers peaked at the end of February with over 900 cases recorded in a day.
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For a fourth straight day, more new cases were recorded from Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi province, than in what has so far been the outbreak epicentre in the country – North Gyeongsang province and city of Daegu – with the capital area registering 34 new cases, and the latter recording 23.
Imported cases in patients recently returned from abroad also continued to increase, with 22 new infections bringing the total to 264.
Japan to give US$2,800 payouts to households
A man seen in a protective mask at Shinjuku in Tokyo, Japan, on April 2, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Japanese ruling party executive Fumio Kishida said on Friday he has agreed with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen (US$2,800) in cash payments per household that suffers a certain degree of income declines from the coronavirus pandemic.
About 10 million of Japan’s 58 million households are expected to be eligible for the cash programme, a key pillar of an emergency economic package that the government plans to compile possibly on Tuesday.
The relief measure will be funded by a supplementary budget for this fiscal year that the government wants to pass in parliament before Japan’s Golden Week holiday starts in early May.
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The government will not set a household income limit for the cash handout, which will be tax free, officials said.
“If we set an income limit, we would have to check individual incomes, which would take a lot of time,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, told a press conference. “Instead of that, we’ll come up with an unprecedented way (to judge who should receive cash).”
Nishimura said recipients will be limited to those who are facing livelihood difficulties, and that civil servants, politicians and major corporate executives who have not been significantly affected by the economic impact of the virus outbreak, for example, will be excluded from the scheme.
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Abe said the government will provide cash “as soon as possible” not only to households but also to small-and mid-sized business operators that have seen their revenues drop.
Abe has said the package to tackle the coronavirus will be larger than the 56.8 trillion yen emergency package compiled in April 2009 following the previous year’s global financial crisis.
Indonesian Muslims banned from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr
A police officer in a coronavirus helmet sprays disinfectant at a motorcycle in East Java, Indonesia, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Islamic scholars in Indonesia on Friday issued an edict to forbid people from travelling home for Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, as the country recorded nearly 2,000 infections during the
decided to allow millions of Muslims to travel to celebrate Eid in their hometowns next month, despite fears that they could spread the Covid-19 disease.
“The virus spreads very easily. Doing something like that at a time of a pandemic is haram [forbidden],” the council’s sectary general Anwar Abbas said.
Eid al-Fitr is expected to start on May 23, depending on the sighting of the new moon.
Indonesia frees 18,000 prisoners as virus death toll surges to 170
2 Apr 2020
Indonesia confirmed 196 new infections on Friday, bringing the total number of cases to 1,986.
The death toll rose to 181 after 11 new deaths, making Indonesia the the country with the highest number of fatalities in Asia outside China.
The State Intelligence Agency warned that the outbreak in Indonesia could peak in June with more than 105,000 cases.
Thailand’s night curfew to begin; people banned from making virus pranks
An officer checks the temperature of a passenger in a bus at a health checkpoint in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 3, 2020. Photo: AP
Thailand will on Friday night begin a daily nationwide curfew to try to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
The 10pm-4am curfew, which will run indefinitely, is the latest measure by the government to curb gatherings and have people stay at home as much as possible.
Exceptions include those people transporting medical supplies and health workers travelling to and from work, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said.
“We prioritise health over freedom,” Prayuth said. “We might not feel as comfortable as before, but we all need to adapt for survival and have social responsibility, so that we can make it through this crisis.”
In a televised address, Prayuth also asked all Thai citizens abroad to “delay” returning to
until after April 15 in a bid to stop imported cases.
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Thais have also been banned from making public gatherings, in an order signed on Friday by defence forces chief General Pornpipat Benyasri.
The order prohibits people from public gatherings, carrying out activities, or gathering for unlawful purposes in a manner that risks spreading the coronavirus.
It also bans any act that aggravates people’s suffering and pranks to spread the virus. Family gatherings at residences and civic activities carried out according to safe social distancing guidelines are allowed.
Violation of the order carries a maximum penalty of two years’ imprisonment and a fine of 40,000 baht (US$1,215).
Pakistan’s mosques remain open amid shutdowns
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Mosques in Pakistan were allowed to remain open on Friday, when adherents gather for weekly prayers, even as much of the country had shut down.
Pakistan, with 2,450 confirmed coronavirus cases and 35 deaths, has been sharply criticised for moving too slowly to curb large gatherings.
Prime Minister Imran Khan was relying on restricting the size of congregations attending mosques and advice to stay at home from religious groups like the country’s Islamic Ideology Council.
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However, some provinces had issued their own lockdown orders to prevent Muslims from gathering for Friday prayers.
In southern Sindh province, a complete lockdown was being enforced from noon until 3pm, the time when the faithful gather for prayers. Anyone found on the streets would be arrested, according to the provincial local government minister in a statement.
In eastern Punjab province, where 60 per cent of Pakistan’s 220 million people live, checkpoints had been set up in major cities stopping people from congregating.
Tunisia ‘robocop’ enforces virus lockdown
The PGuard robot patrols the streets of Tunis, in Tunisia, on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia’s interior ministry has deployed a police robot to patrol the streets of the capital and enforce a lockdown as the country battles the spread of coronavirus.
Known as PGuard, the “robocop” is remotely operated and equipped with infrared and thermal imaging cameras, in addition to a sound and light alarm system.
In images and a soundtrack posted on the interior ministry’s website last month, PGuard calls out to suspected violators of the lockdown: “What are you doing? Show me your ID. You don’t know there’s a lockdown?”
The PGuard robot checks the exit permit of a citizen in Tunis on April 1, 2020. Photo: EPA-EFE
Tunisia has been under night-time curfew since March 17 and authorities imposed stricter lockdown orders from March 22.
Fourteen people have died from coronavirus in Tunisia, where 455 confirmed cases have tested positive for the disease.
The robot’s Tunisian creator Anis Sahbani said the machine was first produced in 2015 essentially to carry out security patrols and it also operates autonomously through artificial intelligence.
The robot, built by Sahbani’s Enova Robotics firm, costs between 100,000 and 130,000 euros (US$100,000 and $140,000), and has been selling mostly overseas to companies for security uses.
France death tally passes 5,000
A cashier runs a store counter covered up with a plastic barrier in Paris, France, on April 3, 2020. Photo: Xinhua
reported a jump in coronavirus deaths on Thursday as the country included fatalities in some nursing homes for the first time. Still, a decline in intensive-care admissions suggest the country’s lockdown is starting to slow the pace of the outbreak.
The health ministry reported 471 new hospital deaths from the coronavirus on Thursday. In addition, it reported 884 deaths in a partial count from nursing homes, bringing the total number to 5,387. Nursing homes were not previously included in the statistics.
in number of deaths, behind Italy and Spain. The number of confirmed cases is now at 59,105.
Italy reported another 760 fatalities on Thursday. Its death toll, already the world’s highest, now stands at 13,915. Total infections, including recoveries and deaths, have reached 115,242.
Spain reported 950 more deaths from the coronavirus, the most in a single day, taking the total to 10,003.
India plans staggered exit from lockdown
Indian policemen in Hyderabad, India, wear virus-themed helmets for a campaign to raise awareness at preventing the spread of the coronavirus on April 2, 2020. Photo: AP
infections, but the world’s biggest shutdown has left millions without jobs and forced migrant workers to flee to their villages for food and shelter.
After violence, Indian police try humour to enforce virus lockdown
2 Apr 2020
He told state chief ministers that the shutdown had helped limit infections but that the situation remained far from satisfactory around the world and there could be a second wave.
“Prime minister said that it is important to formulate a common exit strategy to ensure staggered re-emergence of the population once lockdown ends,” the government quoted him as saying in a video conference.
India has had 2,069 confirmed infections, of whom 53 have died, low figures by comparison with the US, China, Italy and Spain. But the big worry is the
because of a gathering held by a Muslim missionary group last month that has spawned dozens of cases across the country, officials said.
Five-minute virus tests ‘may give inaccurate results’
A Chinese drug and diagnostic firm has cautioned that the slew of new test kits that promise to detect the coronavirus in just a few minutes may not be as accurate as conventional kits, a potential setback for countries seeking to rapidly test their citizens.
“Such rapid testing is not as accurate as the traditional nucleic acid test that takes about two hours to turn out results,” Wu Yifang, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group’s chief executive officer, said. The drugmaker also has a swift testing technology but it’s working on making the results more accurate, according to Wu.
Coronavirus nightmare of China’s ‘recovered’ patients
2 Apr 2020
Abbott Laboratories unveiled a coronavirus test on March 28 that can confirm if someone is infected in as little as five minutes. Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology has been supplying its version of rapid testing kits to the European Union even before getting regulatory approval in China for domestic use.
The faster and easy-to-deploy diagnostic kits seemingly save time and resources for nations under pressure to widen their testing efforts. But there have been reports of faulty kits, like those bought by Spain and the Czech Republic.
Shenzhen Bioeasy, which sold thousands of test kits to Spain, said in a statement on March 27 that false results could be due to improper use of its kits or faulty specimen collection.
Trump tests negative again
US President Donald Trump was was first tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive. Photo: UPI/Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump on Thursday was tested again to determine whether he had been infected by the coronavirus, and the test came back negative, the White House said.
A letter from Trump’s doctor, Sean Conley, said Trump had undergone what was a second test for coronavirus. He was tested last month after coming into contact with a Brazilian official who later tested positive.
Trump to urge Americans to wear masks when outside
3 Apr 2020
Conley said in a letter released by the White House that Trump was tested with a new, rapid point-of-contact test and the result came back in 15 minutes.
“He is healthy and without symptoms,” Conley said.
Trump said Americans should wear protective face masks if they wish. “If people want to wear them, they can” he said. Scarves work just as well, he said.
NRA sues NY governor over closure of gun stores
A pedestrian pushes a stroller as people wait in line outside a gun store to buy supplies on March 15, 2020. Photo: Reuters
The National Rifle Association (NRA) sued New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for closing gun shops during the coronavirus pandemic, saying the restriction is unconstitutional and leaves citizens defenceless while prisoners are being released early as a result of the crisis.
Cuomo’s March 20 executive order that included firearms retailers as non-essential businesses, which must close is a “pointless and arbitrary attack on the constitutional rights of New York citizens and residents,” the NRA said in a complaint filed late Thursday in Syracuse, New York.
New York ordered most businesses to close to prevent the spread of the virus, but deemed grocery stores, liquor stores, pharmacies and restaurants that do take-out as essential and allowed them to remain open.
The New York lawsuit follows similar action the NRA took in Northern California, where it sued several cities including San Jose for ordering gun stores to close.
Corona beer producer halts brewing
The Mexican brewer of Corona beer said on Thursday it was suspending production because of the health emergency in the country over the Covid-19 pandemic.
Grupo Modelo said the measure was in line with the Mexican government’s order to suspend all non-essential activities until April 30 to slow the spread of coronavirus.
“We are in the process of lowering production at our plants to the bare minimum,” the company said in a statement, adding it would complete the suspension in the following days.
Mexico’s government has said that only key sectors such as agribusiness will be able to continue to function.
US stops issuing passports, except in emergencies
The US State Department will not be processing new passports and renewals except for emergency cases because of the coronavirus pandemic, the agency’s website said.
“Due to public health measures to limit the spread of Covid-19, effective March 20, 2020, we are only able to offer service for customers with a qualified life-or-death emergency and who need a passport for immediate international travel within 72 hours,” said a March 27 online statement.
How elite US university students brought coronavirus home from campus
3 Apr 2020
Passport applications received on or before March 19 will be processed.
Travellers who paid extra for expedited service can expect to receive their passport in the next two to three weeks.
If you applied in-person at a passport agency or centre before March 19, the agency will contact you about getting your passport.
In Wuhan, the epicentre of China’s outbreak, all traffic lights in urban areas were turned red at 10:00, ceasing traffic for three minutes.
China’s government said the event was a chance to pay respects to “martyrs”, a reference to the 14 medical workers who died battling the virus.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China came to a standstill during the three-minute silence at 10:00 local time
They include Li Wenliang, a doctor in Wuhan who died of Covid-19 after being reprimanded by the authorities for attempting to warn others about the disease.
“I feel a lot of sorrow about our colleagues and patients who died,” a Chinese nurse who treated coronavirus patients told AFP news agency. “I hope they can rest well in heaven.”
Wearing white flowers pinned to their chest, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other government officials paid silent tribute in Beijing.
Saturday’s commemorations coincide with the annual Qingming festival, when millions of Chinese families pay respects to their ancestors.
China first informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about cases of pneumonia with unknown causes on 31 December last year.
By 18 January, the confirmed number of cases had risen to around 60 – but experts estimated the real figure was closer to 1,700.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption China’s government said the commemoration was held to pay respects to “martyrs”
Just two days later, as millions of people prepared to travel for the lunar new year, the number of cases more than tripled to more than 200 and the virus was detected in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
From that point, the virus began to spread rapidly in Asia and then Europe, eventually reaching every corner of the globe.
Media caption The BBC met people in Beijing heading out after the lockdown
In the past few weeks, China has started to ease travel and social-distancing restrictions, believing it has brought the health emergency under control.
Last weekend, Wuhan partially re-opened after more than two months of isolation.
On Saturday, China reported 19 new confirmed cases of coronavirus, down from 31 a day earlier. China’s health commission said 18 of those cases involved travellers arriving from abroad.
As it battles to control cases coming from abroad, China temporarily banned all foreign visitors, even if they have visas or residence permits.
What is the latest worldwide?
As the coronavirus crisis in China abates, the rest of the world remains firmly in the grip of the disease.
The deaths increased by 1,480 in 24 hours, the highest daily death toll since the pandemic began, AFP news agency reported, citing Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker.
The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the pandemic has bought the global economy to a standstill, causing a recession “way worse than the global financial crisis” of 2008
The United Nations appealed to governments around the world not to use the pandemic as an excuse to stifle dissent
SEOUL/TOKYO (Reuters) – With more employees working from home to help slow the spread of the coronavirus, demand is surging for laptops and network peripherals as well as components along the supply chain such as chips, as companies rush to build virtual offices.
Many firms have withdrawn earnings forecasts, anticipating a drop in consumer demand and economic slump, but performance at electronics retailers and chipmakers is hinting at benefits from the shift in work culture.
Over the past month, governments and companies globally have been advising people to stay safe indoors. Over roughly the same period, South Korea – home of the world’s biggest memory chip maker, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd – on Monday reported a 20% jump in semiconductor exports.
Pointing to further demand, nearly one in three Americans have been ordered to stay home, while Italy – where deaths have hit 5,476 – has banned internal travel. Worldwide, the flu-like virus has infected over 300,000 people and led to almost 15,000 deaths since China first reported the outbreak in December.
“With more people working and learning from home during the outbreak, there has been rising demand for internet services … meaning data centres need bigger pipes to carry the traffic,” said analyst Park Sung-soon at Cape Investment & Securities.
A South Korean trade ministry official told Reuters that cloud computing has boosted sales of server chips, “while an increase in telecommuting in the United States and China has also been a main driver of huge server demand.”
In Japan, laptop maker Dynabook reported brisk demand which it partly attributed to companies encouraging teleworking. Rival NEC Corp said it has responded to demand with telework-friendly features such as more powerful embedded speakers.
Australian electronics retailer JB Hifi Ltd also said it saw demand “acceleration” in recent weeks from both commercial and retail customers for “essential products they need to respond to and prepare” for the virus, such as devices that support remote working as well as home appliances.
CHINA LEAD
China is leading chip demand, analysts said, as cloud service providers such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Tencent Holdings Ltd and Baidu Inc quickly responded to the government’s effort to contain the virus.
“Cloud companies opened their platforms, allowing new and existing customers to use more resources for free to help maintain operations,” said analyst Yih Khai Wong at Canalys.
“This set the precedent for technology companies around the world that offer cloud-based services in their response to helping organisations affected by coronavirus.”
China’s cloud infrastructure build-up has helped push up chip prices, with spot prices of DRAM chips rising more than 6% since Feb. 20, showed data from price tracker DRAMeXchange.
UBS last week forecast average contract prices of DRAM chips to rise as much as 10% in the second quarter from the first, led by a more than 20% jump in server chips.
It said it expects DRAM chips to be modestly under supplied until the third quarter of 2021, with demand from server customers rising 31% both in 2020 and 2021.
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
Concerns over supply disruption has also contributed to a price rise.
“You’ve got lots of OEMs and systems integrators in the global market who have intense demand for memory now,” said Andrew Perlmutter, chief strategy officer at ITRenew, a company that buys and reworks used data centre equipment for resale.
“Nobody is shutting down their factories – it is still production as normal – but people worry about memory supply in particular, so they want to get out ahead of production.”
About 69% of electronics manufacturers have flagged possible supplier delays averaging three weeks, showed a poll on March 13 by industry trade group IPC International.
Half of those polled expected business to normalise by July, and nearly three-quarters pointed to at least October.
This is the third instalment in a four-part series examining the brewing US-China tech war over the development and deployment of artificial intelligence tech
The US is home to five of the world’s top 10 universities in the AI field, which includes computer vision and machine learning, while China has three
For those Chinese with long-term plans to stay in the US, a major obstacle lies in getting work visas, especially in the current trade war environment. Illustration: Perry Tse
After working in the United States for more than a decade, Zheng Yefeng felt he had hit a glass ceiling. He also saw that the gap in artificial intelligence between China and the US was narrowing.
Last year Zheng, who worked as a researcher at Siemens Healthcare in New Jersey, made a decision that addressed both problems. He accepted an offer to head up the medical research and development team at Tencent’s YouTu artificial intelligence lab in Shenzhen, known as China’s Silicon Valley.
“There was almost no room for promotion if I stayed in the US,” he said, expressing a common dilemma faced by experienced Chinese tech workers in America.
With the US-China trade war leading to tighter scrutiny of Chinese nationals working in the US tech industry, people like Zheng are moving back to China to work in the burgeoning AI sector, especially after Beijing designated AI a national priority. The technology’s varied applications have attracted billions of dollars of venture capital investment, created highly valued start-ups like SenseTime and ByteDance, and sparked a talent war among companies.
That has created an odd symbiotic relationship between the two countries vying for AI supremacy. The US, with its superior higher education system, is the training ground for Chinese AI scientists like Zheng, who obtained a PhD from the University of Maryland after earning bachelor’s and master’s degrees at China’s premier Tsinghua University.
“Many professors in China have great academic ability, but in terms of the number [of top professors], the US is ahead,” said Luo Guojie, who himself accepted an offer from Peking University to become an assistant professor after studying computer science in the US.
Among international students majoring in computer science and maths in US universities, Chinese nationals were the third largest group behind Indians and Nepalese in the 2018-2019 academic year, representing 19.9 per cent, according to the Institute of International Education.
[To build] the best universities is not easy. The university is a free speech space, whereas in China, this is not the case Gunther Marten, a senior official with the European Union delegation to China
The South China Morning Post spoke with several Chinese AI engineers who decided to stay and work in the US after their studies. They only agreed to give their surnames because of the sensitivity of the issues being discussed.
A 25-year-old Beijinger surnamed Lin graduated from one of China’s best engineering schools in the capital before heading to a US university for a master’s degree in computer science in 2017. Like some of his peers, he found the teaching methods in China to be outdated.
“It’s hard to imagine that a final exam of a coding course still asked you to hand write code, instead of running and testing it on a computer,” said Lin, who now works as a software engineer for Google in Silicon Valley.
“Although we still had to take writing tests [in the US], we had many practical opportunities in the lab and could do our own projects,” he added.
A Facebook software engineer surnamed Zhuang had a similar experience at his university in Shanghai.
“Many engineering students [in China] still get old-school textbooks and insufficient laboratory training,” he said. “Engineering practices for AI have been through a fast iteration over the past few decades, which means many Chinese students are not exposed to the most updated knowledge in the field, at least not in the classroom.”
Zhuang also noted out that many classes in China are taught in Chinese, meaning engineering graduates are not fluent in English, the preferred language of the global AI research community.
The US is home to five of the world’s top 10 universities in the AI field, which includes computer vision and machine learning, while China has three. Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) in Pennsylvania ranks No 1 while China’s Tsinghua University is No 2, according to CSrankings, which bases the list on papers published since 2009.
US tech chief: China is threatening US’ lead in global AI race
With its top institutions and an open culture that encourages freedom of speech, including unfettered internet access, the US has become a magnet for the brightest AI students the world over.
In 2018, 62.8 per cent of PhD degrees and 65.4 per cent of master’s degrees in computer science, information science and computer engineering programmes in the US were granted to “non-resident aliens”, according to a survey by the Computing Research Association.
“[To build] the best universities is not easy,” Gunther Marten, a senior official with the European Union delegation to China, said on the sidelines of the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen in October. “The university is a free speech space, whereas in China, this is not the case.”
When these US-educated AI scientists finish studying, most take advantage of a rule allowing them to stay in the country for three years to gain work experience.
Of the foreign nationals taking part in last year’s Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), a major machine learning event for AI professionals, 87 per cent of those whose papers made it to the oral presentation stage went to work for American universities or research institutes after earning their PhD, according to MacroPolo, a think tank under the Paulson Institute.
“China has many great universities and companies, especially in certain subfields of AI such as computer vision, but many people remain hesitant to move to China due to the political environment, quality of life concerns and workplace issues,” said Remco Zwetsloot, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET).
China’s PhD students miserable, yet hopeful: survey
Some of the US-trained Chinese AI engineers told the Post they were scared off by China’s “996” working culture: 9am to 9pm, six days a week. Tech firms in China typically expect their employees to work long hours to prove their dedication.
Lin, the Beijinger who now works for Google, used to be an intern at one of China’s largest internet giants. “I worked from the time I woke up until going to bed,” he said, “At Google, I’ve been confused because many people here only work till 5pm but Google is still a global leader.” Lin said he would be happy to return to China if the 996 work culture eases.
Graduates throw their caps in the air as they pose for a group photo during the 2019 commencement ceremony of Tsinghua University in Beijing. Tsinghua ranks as China’s top university for AI. Photo: Xinhua
Chen, a female postgraduate student at Carnegie Mellon, who recently accepted a job offer from Google, once interned at Beijing-based AI unicorn SenseTime, where she worked from 10am to between 8pm and 10pm most days.
A SenseTime spokesperson said the company has adopted flexible working hours for its employees.
Besides a better work-life balance, Chinese graduates look for jobs in Silicon Valley because of the higher pay.
“If you include pre-tax income, many of us get offers that pay more than 1 million yuan (US$142,000) a year but in China the salaries offered to the best batch of fresh undergraduates are about 200,000 to 300,000 yuan (US$28,000 to US$43,000),” Chen said.
Still, for those Chinese with long-term plans to stay in the US, a major obstacle lies in getting work visas, especially in the current trade war environment. Most AI-related workers are on H-1B visas that allow US companies to employ non-US nationals with expertise in specialised fields such as IT, finance and engineering.
However, the number of non-immigrant H-1B visas granted has started to fall since 2016, when it peaked at 180,000, according to the US Department of State, and US tech companies have complained that a policy shift by the Trump administration has made the approval process longer and more complicated.
In 2017, President Donald Trump requested an overhaul of the H-1B visa programme, saying he did not want it to enable US tech companies to hire cheaper foreign workers at the expense of American jobs. He also wants to give priority to highly skilled people and restrict those wanting to move to the US because of family connections.
Science graduates from overseas countries can stay in the US with their student visas for up to three years while competing for the hard to get work visas, which are granted based on undisclosed mechanisms. Overseas students already working in the US can apply for so-called green cards, which offer permanent residency.
After working for a major US tech company for almost three years on a student visa, one Chinese software engineer, who spoke to the Post on condition of anonymity, said she was relocated to the US firm’s Beijing office last year after failing to obtain a H-1B work visa.
“While there might be individual cases, it seems like the current tensions have not – at least as of a few months ago – led to noticeable changes in the overall number of Chinese students staying in the US after graduating,” said CSET’s Zwetsloot.
Some Chinese AI scientists use Twitter to announce their decision to stay. Chen Tianqi, who just obtained a PhD at the University of Washington in Seattle, and Jun-Yan Zhu, a CMU and UC Berkeley alumnus currently working at Adobe, each tweeted that they would join Carnegie Mellon as assistant professors next year.
To achieve the goal of turning China into “the world’s primary AI innovation centre” by 2030, according to a 2017 blueprint issued the State Council, the central government has stepped up efforts to attract US-educated talent.
The Thousand Talents Plan has seen more than 6,000 overseas Chinese students and academics return since its was established in 2008, but because of escalating tensions with the US, Beijing has played down the initiative.
Longer term, Beijing’s willingness to invest significant sums into the AI sector could see more Chinese return for the better employment opportunities. Between 2013 and the first quarter of 2018, China attracted 60 per cent of global investment in AI, according to a Tsinghua University report.
China’s spending on AI may be far lower than people think
Chinese authorities are investing heavily in the sector, with the city of Shanghai setting up a 10 billion yuan (US$142 million) AI fund in August and Beijing city government announcing in April it would provide a 340 million yuan (US$48 million) grant to the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence.
“More and more senior people like me have come back, and some start their own businesses,” said Zheng, the Siemens Healthcare researcher who joined Tencent. “It’s easier for Chinese to seek venture capital in China than in other countries.”
Unit 121 on Lanman Hutong, about 10 minutes’ drive from Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, changed hands last month for 1.28 million yuan
The new owner bought a 5.6-square metre (72 square feet) cubicle covered in bathroom tiles large enough to fit a bunk bed, with standing room only
A view of the 5.6 square metre cubicle-size home in Beijing on 15 November 2019. The home sold for 1.28 million yuan at auction. Photo: Louise Moon
A subdivided home in a run-down alley in Beijing recently sold for a record price at auction, as eager buyers piled in to get hold of its much sought-after address to gain access to some of the Chinese capital’s best schools.
A subdivided unit at No. 121 Lanman Hutong, about 10 minutes’ drive from Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, changed hands on November 11 for 1.28 million yuan (US$182,400) after 136 rounds of furious bidding during an auction in Beijing.
For 230,000 yuan per square metre (HK$23,850 per square foot), the new owner bought a 5.6-square metre (72 square feet) cubicle covered in bathroom tiles large enough to fit a bunk bed, with standing room only. That’s smaller than even Hong Kong’s notorious micro-apartments – also known derisively as shoebox flats or nano flats – which average about 200 square feet. A standard car parking space measures 126 square feet.
What the dilapidated space does have is an address that entitles its owner to a hukou, the household registration that is the prerequisite for access to schools, homes, civil service jobs, public health care and almost every aspect of daily life in the Chinese capital.
The alley on which No. 121 Lanman Hutong sits in Beijing on 15 November 2019. Photo: Louise Moon
Lanman Hutong, or the Alley of the Brilliant Drapes, sits in Xicheng district, a chequerboard neighbourhood criss-crossed with hundreds of alleyways that boasts three of the five highest-ranked schools in the city.
According to Beijing’s real estate regulations, one square metre entitles the owner a hukou. That fuelled the rush by parents to buy property in the area to qualify for sending their children to such eminent schools as the Beijing No. 4 High School, whose alumni include former Chongqing Commissar Bo Xilai, former China Development Bank president Chen Yuan and Citic’s chairman Kong Dan. Most of these bolt holes are now unoccupied after they have served their purposes, local residents said.
Lanman Hutong, or the Alley of the Brilliant Drapes, in the Xicheng district of Beijing, about 10 minutes drive from the Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, on 15 November 2019. Photo: Louise Moon
The auction result offers a peek into the growing speculative bubble in Beijing’s property market, a development that has defied more than two years of policymakers’ attempts to control. The average price of newly built homes rose 4.3 per cent in October to 60,894 yuan per square metre in Beijing, according to China’s statistics bureau data and Lianjia, a major real estate broker.
“Beijing’s homes have always been expensive, [particularly so] in Xicheng, where only the ultra-wealthy can afford to stay,” said Midland Beijing’s analyst Zhao Jia. “A million yuan is not expensive at all, to find space that close to the Forbidden City.”
Beijing’s average home price is equivalent to 24.9 years of the city’s median net income, excluding expenditures, according to data by E-House China Research and Development Institution. Hong Kong, the world’s most expensive urban centre to live and work in, requires 21 years of average income to affordable the average abode, according to the Demographia International Housing Affordability Study, as the city also boasts of a higher income and lower tax rate.
A tiny alleyway leading to No. 121 Lanman Hutong, which sold earlier this week for 1.28 million yuan in Beijing. Photo: Louise Moon
“It is not that easy for the average person to own property in Beijing,” said Midland’s Zhao. “For most homes in the city, 1 million yuan is only enough for a down payment.”
Unit 121 on Lanman Hutong is located among a cluster of siheyuan, as Beijing’s traditional courtyard homes are called. Bicycles, old washing machines and other household junk are piled along the maze of alleyways leading to the ground-floor unit.
Its auction drew 29 bidders starting from 470,000 yuan. The final winning bid prices the Lanman cubicle 35 per cent higher than a 100-million yuan villa with view of the Summer Palace in Beijing’s outskirts, on a per square foot basis.
To be sure, the unidentified buyer of the unit may be speculating for a quick flip, when the property is torn down, said Zhang Dawei, an analyst at Centaline Property Agency.
“This is more like a gamble, betting on the unit being demolished,” Zhang said. “If the odds are good, the buyer can pocket the [compensation], which could be several times what he bought it for. Even if it is not demolished in the short term, it is not bad to have some asset in the heart of Beijing.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Millions of poor Indians still defecate in the open
Two men in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh have been arrested for allegedly killing two Dalit (formerly untouchables) children who were defecating in the open, police say.
Roshni, 12, and Avinash, 10, were attacked on Wednesday while defecating near a village road, they said.
The children’s family told BBC Hindi that they have no toilet at home.
Millions of poor Indians defecate in the open, which especially puts women and children at risk.
Dalits are at the bottom of the Hindu caste system and despite laws to protect them, they still face widespread discrimination in India.
“The two children were beaten to death with sticks,” police superintendent Rajesh Chandel told BBC Hindi’s Shuraih Niazi. “We have registered a murder case against both the accused. They are being questioned.”
Within hours of the attack early on Wednesday morning, police arrested two upper-caste men – Rameshwar Yadav and Hakim Yadav.
Roshni and Avinash were cousins, but Roshni had been brought up by Avinash’s parents and lived with them.
Avinash’s father, Manoj, says that as a daily wage labourer, he cannot afford to build a toilet at his house. He also says he has been unable to access a government subsidy as part of a flagship scheme to build toilets for the poor.
Media caption The Dalits unblocking India’s sewers by hand
The Swachh Bharat Mission or Clean India programme seeks to end open defecation by increasing toilet infrastructure and improving sanitation across the country. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the program in 2014, he vowed to make India “open defecation free” by 2 October 2019.
Manoj’s village – Bhavkhedi – has been declared “open defecation free”, a tag given by the government to villages and cities have successfully ended open defecation.
Image caption Women who go out at night to defecate are often at risk
Research has shown that while the construction of toilets has increased rapidly, lack of water, poor maintenance and slow change in behaviour have stood in the way of ending open defecation.
But many have praised Mr Modi for highlighting the issue and launching a major scheme to address it – the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation honoured him this week, describing the Swachh Bharat Mission as “a model for other countries around the world that urgently need to improve access to sanitation for the world’s poorest.”
China’s housing market showing signs of bubble similar to that seen in Japan in 1980s, says Asian Development Bank Institute dean and CEO Naoyuki Yoshino
China’s loose policy following 2008 global financial crisis laid foundations for current housing bubble, with US-China trade war adding to concerns
The average price of a home in Beijing has soared from around 380 yuan (US$55) per square feet in the early 2000s to the current level of well above 5,610 yuan (US$813) per square foot, according to property data provider creprice.cn. Photo: Bloomberg
China must exercise extreme caution in handling its housing sector because it is showing signs similar to those witnessed during Japan’s bubble period of the 1980s that contributed to the collapse of Japanese asset prices and its subsequent “lost decades” of weak economic growth and deflation, a Japanese financial system expert warned.
The parallels between China’s current landscape and Japan’s three decades ago are readily apparent, stemming from a loose monetary policy that laid the foundation for the expansion of a housing bubble, said Naoyuki Yoshino, dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute.
China flooded its economy with credit in response to the 2008 global financial crisis, fuelling rapid growth in mortgages, real estate borrowings and investments over the past decade.
In the same vein, the Japanese government’s relaxed monetary policy in the 1980s triggered an economic bubble that eventually burst and sank the economy into a recession that
with the Bank of Japan continuing to still keep interest rates at or below zero per cent to this day in an attempt to spur inflation.
The Japanese government’s relaxed monetary policy in the 1980s triggered an economic bubble that eventually burst and sank the economy into a recession that lasted almost 25 years. Photo: Bloomberg
Japan’s experience could serve as a lesson on how to avoid a housing market collapse that would be especially detrimental to China’s financial sector and real economy, according to Yoshino.
“I’m very much concerned that if land prices keep on rising and if the population starts to shrink along with aggregate demand, then China will experience a similar situation to that of Japan,” Yoshino said.
There are already several strong signs of a housing bubble in China, according to Yoshino, firstly the astronomical surge in property prices in recent years.
I’m very much concerned that if land prices keep on rising and if the population starts to shrink along with aggregate demand, then China will experience a similar situation to that of Japan Naoyuki Yoshino
Home ownership is one of the few ways for Chinese families to generate wealth because of limited investment opportunities. The average price of a home in Beijing has soared from around 4,000 yuan (US$578) per square metre, or 380 yuan (US$55) per square feet, in the early 2000s to the current level of well above 60,000 yuan (US$8,677) per square metre, or 5,610 yuan (US$813) per square foot, according to property data provider creprice.cn.
The increase has also lifted the housing price to income ratio sharply from 5.6 in 1996 to 7.6 in 2013, well above the Japanese rate of 3.0 at its peak in 1988. The price to income ratio is the basic affordability measure for housing.
According to the Global Times, a reasonable home price should be three to six times the median household income. That means a family with an average income can buy a house with three to six years’ annual income. The house price to income ratio in China is above 50 in the first-tier cities and 30 to 40 in the third- and fourth-tier cities, the newspaper said in October. There are four levels of cities in China, defined by a number of factors including gross domestic product (GDP) and population, with Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen considered tier-one cities.
Another worrying sign, according to Yoshino, is that China’s financial sector has lent more heavily to the real estate sector than did Japanese banks during their bubble period.
Thirdly, the ratio of Chinese housing loans to the nation’s GDP has consistently been higher than Japan’s by about three times more.
Ever since US President Donald Trump started imposing tariffs on Chinese imports in July, worries have been mounting that China’s property bubble and its record debt level would make the economy vulnerable to the impact of rising trade tensions, leading to a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown.
Despite a government crackdown on debt and risky lending over the last several years, housing prices and bank lending to the sector have continued to rise, pushing homes beyond what the vast majority of people can afford, as well as putting many property developers deeply into debt.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, said in a report last week that the growth in housing prices in China’s bigger cities, caused by a relatively short supply of new homes, is likely to push up costs across the country.
“The government should closely monitor these cities to avoid overheating,” said Wang Yeqiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences who co-authored the report.
Property developers have begun a debt-fuelled land-buying spree just as urban housing demand is entering a long-running structural decline, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. The potential supply of property that could be built on developers’ land reserves jumped last year to a record high, meaning the risk of a glut of new housing is real, Evans-Pritchard added, if developers were to convert all their land reserves into housing tracts.
“Since real estate drives around a fifth of GDP, a sharp downturn in this sector would be contagious, resulting in a jump in defaults across a wide swathe of the economy that could quickly erode bank capital buffers,” he warned.
China’s corporate debt stood at 155 per cent of GDP in the second quarter of 2018, much higher than other major economies, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In comparison, Japan’s corporate debt level is 100 per cent of GDP and is 74 per cent in the US. China’s corporate debt includes issuances by its
vehicles which by extension is mostly credit with an implicit guarantee from the central government.
Since real estate drives around a fifth of GDP, a sharp downturn in this sector would be contagious, resulting in a jump in defaults across a wide swathe of the economy that could quickly erode bank capital buffersJulian Evans-Pritchard
China’s imbalance between housing supply and demand may worsen because it faces a similar economic transition that is already well underway in Japan – a
that led to Japan’s long-term deflation problem, said Yoshino, who is also the chief adviser to the Japan Financial Services Agency’s Financial Research Centre.
Even if rising housing demand due to urbanisation were to push China’s housing prices higher over the near term, the country faces risks from an oversupply of housing in the longer term due to its increasingly unbalanced demographic structure, he said.
The government has proposed that China’s retirement ages of 45 to 50 years for females and 55 to 60 years for males introduced in the 1980s be gradually increased to 65 years for both by 2045 due to a rapidly ageing population.
The rising population of retirees will consume fewer goods and services compared to younger families with children, and in turn, could dampen business investment given lower expected rates of return.
At the same time, more retirees means a bigger burden on the younger generation of taxpayers, which would reduce their wealth and change patterns of consumption. This is especially worrying on the back of China’s high debt level and pension funding gap, similar to the situation in Japan, Yoshino said.
In Japan, benefits from government pension schemes account for an increasing share of the country’s accumulated debt as spending on social protection programmes now represents more than a third of the government’s total budget.
China’s national pension fund is forecast to peak at 6.99 trillion yuan (US$1 trillion) in 2027 before it gradually runs out by 2035, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Photo: AFP
forecast to peak at 6.99 trillion yuan (US$1 trillion) in 2027 before it gradually runs out by 2035, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, forcing the government to start to transfer assets from state-owned companies to fill the funding gap.
Against the broader economic slowdown, compounded by the trade war with the US, policymakers are also expected to carve out a highly expansionary fiscal budget for this year, with the broad deficit surging to 6.6 per cent of China’s GDP, up from 4.7 per cent last year, according to Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Capital.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Natixis, noted that the US criticisms of China’s unfair trade practises and currency manipulation were reminiscent of the US-Japan disputes in the 1980s and 1990s.
Because Japan was politically and economically dependent on the US at that time, it inevitably implemented economic policies to reduce its current account surplus. Subsequently, Japan suffered from the bursting of its asset price bubble, which led to deflation and the lost decades.
However, Herrero said that the modern China is less dependent on the US and so is in a better position to resist pressure to adjust its economic policies to create demand for American products.
Wang Yang, one of the seven members of China’s elite Politburo Standing Committee, said the US-China trade war could slash one percentage point off Beijing’s economic growth this year. Last year, growth expanded at its slowest pace since 1990, while corporate bond defaults hit a record high and banks’ non-performing loan ratio hit a 10-year high.
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