Archive for ‘India’

01/06/2020

India coronavirus: Huge crowds as some train services resume

Passengers gathered outside Secundarabad station in Andhra Pradesh state
Image caption Passengers gathered outside Secundarabad station in Andhra Pradesh state

India has partially restored train services amid reports of chaos and overcrowding at some stations.

At least 145,000 people will travel in trains on Monday as the country starts to reopen after a prolonged lockdown.

Two hundred trains will now start operations – up from the existing 30 that are currently running.

But maintaining social distancing and cleanliness is proving to be a difficult task as huge crowds gathered outside some stations.

India’s mammoth railway network usually carries 25 million passengers every day.

The ministry of home affairs has issued specific guidelines for the smooth operation of train services. They say that all passengers will have to be screened, social distancing must be followed at the station and in trains and only passengers who have confirmed tickets will be allowed to travel.

Police struggles to enforce social distancing due to large crowds
Image caption Police struggled to enforce social distancing due to large crowds

But some stations reported chaotic scenes as officials struggled to enforce these guidelines. BBC Telugu reported that people were standing much too close to each other at Secunderabad railway station in the southern state of Telangana.

“Railway staff and police didn’t allow passengers to go inside the station until at least one hour before the scheduled departure, citing physical distancing measures. This led to some chaos outside the railway station as a large number of passengers had gathered and there was no physical distance maintained. Police later arrived and organised the queues,” BBC Telugu’s Sharath Behara says.

Reporting from Delhi, BBC Hindi’s Salman Ravi said strict social distancing was being followed when passengers boarded trains, and all of them wore masks.

Passengers waiting outside the train station in Delhi
Image caption Passengers waiting outside the train station in Delhi

“But the same was not observed at ticket booking counters. Many people who did not have tickets also turned up at the station and that caused crowding,” he added.

Train services came to a grinding halt when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the lockdown on 24 March to stop the spread of coronavirus.

This left millions of daily-wage workers stranded as they desperately tried to go back to their villages from cities. Many of them decided to walk long distances – in some cases more than 1,000 kilometres.

As pressure and criticism mounted, the government started running special trains to ferry migrants. Some 30 trains restarted on 12 May, since then there has been a consistent demand to reopen more routes.

Getting the train network going again is part of the government’s wider strategy to slowly reopen the economy. Millions have lost jobs and factories are struggling to reopen as demand is likely to be sluggish in the coming weeks.

But serious questions have been raised over the strategy as India’s coronavirus caseload is consistently increasing. Experts say if safety norms are not followed, the situation could quickly become worse.

Source: The BBC

01/06/2020

India’s monsoon rains seen at 102% of average in 2020: weather office

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India is likely to receive 102% rainfall of a long-term average this year, the state-run weather office said on Monday, raising expectations for higher farm output in Asia’s third-biggest economy, which is reeling from the new coronavirus pandemic.

In July India could receive 103% rainfall of its long-term average and 97% in August, M. Rajeevan, secretary at the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference.

The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96%and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning in June.

Source: Reuters

31/05/2020

India coronavirus: Why is India reopening amid a spike in cases?

A rush of people and motorists in a marketplace area as shops start opening in the city under specific guidelines, on May 20, 2020 in Jammu, IndiaImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Within a week of reopening, India has seen a sharp spike in cases

India is roaring – rather than inching – back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC’s Aparna Alluri finds out why.

On Saturday, India’s government announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.

This was expected – the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hotels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.

But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone – the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.

A worker cleans the mascot of fast-food company McDonald's for the reopening of the outlet in Hyderabad on May 20.Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Fast food chains like McDonald’s have begun reopening outlets in parts of India.

So, why the rush to reopen?

The lockdown is simply unaffordable

“It’s certainly time to lift the lockdown,” says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.

“Beyond a point, it’s hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long – economically, socially and psychologically.”

From day one, India’s lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business – from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India’s growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.

Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be “devastating”.

The opinion is shared by global consultant Mckinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India’s economy must be “managed alongside persistent infection risks”.

Passengers maintaining social distance as they are on board in a DTC Bus after government eased lockdown restriction, at AIIMS on May 20, 2020 in New Delhi, India.Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption As restrictions ease, Indians are slowly getting used to the new normal

“The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and systems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes],” says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. “That objective, to a large extent, has been met.”

In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of protective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the government has bought as much time as possible.

“We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy,” Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.

The silver lining

For weeks, India’s relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates explain the former, but not the latter.

In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown – millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.

Perhaps the choice – between a virus that didn’t appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was – seemed obvious to the government.

But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. “I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms,” Dr Devadasan says.

The hope – which is also encouraging the government to reopen – is that most of India’s undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.

India’s Covid-19 data is spotty and sparse, but what it does have suggests that it hasn’t been as badly hit by the virus as some other countries.

The government, for instance, has been touting India’s mortality rate as a silver lining – at nearly 3%, it’s among the lowest in the world.

But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn’t have, a robust system for recording deaths – in his view, the government is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.

A woman jogs at Lodhi Garden after the local government eased restrictions imposed as a preventive measure against the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus in New Delhi on May 21, 2020.Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Indians are venturing out again but it’s unclear how many of them are asymptomatic.

And, he says, “what we must aim for is flattening the mortality curve, not necessarily the epidemic curve”.

Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the “government realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns”.

A shift in strategy

So is the government gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?

While Dr Menon believes the lockdown was well-timed, he says it was too focused on cases coming from abroad.

“There was a hope that by controlling that, we could prevent epidemic spread, but how effective was our screening [at airports]?”

Now, he adds, is the time for “localised lockdowns”.

Media caption Coronavirus: Death and despair for migrants on Indian roads

The federal government has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the virus’ progression varies wildly across India.

Maharashtra alone accounts for more than a third of India’s active cases. Add Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi, and that makes up 67% of the national total.

But other states – such as Bihar – are already seeing a sharp uptick as migrant workers return home.

“Initially, most of your cases were in the cities,” Dr Devadasan says. “But we kept the migrant workers in cities and didn’t allow them to go home. Now, we are sending them back. We have facilitated transporting the virus from urban areas to rural areas.”

While the government has said how many infections have been avoided – up to 300,000 – and lives saved – up to 71,000 – by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.

There is only advice: The day the government began to ease restrictions, Mr Kejriwal tweeted, urging people to “follow discipline and control the coronavirus disease” as it was their “responsibility”.

The famous Paranthe wali gali (bylane of fried bread) in Chandni Chowk, on August 20, 2014 in New Delhi, India.Image copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Social distancing will prove to be India’s biggest post-lockdown challenge

Because the alternative – of curfews and constant policing – is unsustainable.

“My worry is more the circumstances of people – it’s not as though they have an option to practise social distancing,” Dr Menon says.

And they don’t – not in joint family homes or one-room hovels packed together in slums, not in crowded markets or busy streets where jostling is second nature, or in temples, mosques, weddings or religious processions where more is always merrier.

The overwhelming message is that the virus is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it – and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.

Source: The BBC

30/05/2020

China-India border: Why tensions are rising between the neighbours

'Col Chewang Rinchen Setu', a bridge built by Border Roads Organisation (BRO) over River Shyok, connecting Durbuk and Daulat Beg Oldie in Eastern LadakhImage copyright PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU
Image caption The area has become a hotspot in part because of a road India has built

The armies of the world’s two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.

Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.

Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.

The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.

The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi – this is not a routine incursion.

“The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo,” says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army.

China takes a different view, saying it’s India which has changed facts on the ground.

Reports in the Indian media said soldiers from the two sides clashed on at least two occasions in Ladakh. Stand-offs are reported in at least three locations: the Galwan valley; Hot Springs; and Pangong lake to the south.

A map showing the disputed area

India and China share a border more than 3,440km (2,100 miles) long and have  overlapping territorial claims. Their border patrols often bump into each other, resulting in occasional scuffles but both sides insist no bullet has been fired in four decades.

Their armies – two of the world’s largest – come face to face at many points. The poorly demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) separates the two sides. Rivers, lakes and snowcaps mean the line separating soldiers can shift and they often come close to confrontation.

The current military tension is not limited to Ladakh. Soldiers from the two sides are also eyeball-to-eyeball in Naku La, on the border between China and the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim. Earlier this month they reportedly came to blows.

And there’s a row over a new map put out by Nepal, too, which accuses India of encroaching on its territory by building a road connecting with China.

Why are tensions rising now?

There are several reasons – but competing strategic goals lie at the root, and both sides blame each other.

“The traditionally peaceful Galwan River has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh,” Mr Shukla says.

India’s decision to ramp up infrastructure seems to have infuriated Beijing.

Human rights activists hold placards during a protest against India"s newly inaugurated link road to the Chinese border, near Indian embassy in Kathmandu on May 12, 2020.Image copyright AFP
Image caption There have been protests in Nepal against Indi’s new road link

Chinese state-run media outlet Global Times said categorically: “The Galwan Valley region is Chinese territory, and the local border control situation was very clear.”

“According to the Chinese military, India is the one which has forced its way into the Galwan valley. So, India is changing the status quo along the LAC – that has angered the Chinese,” says Dr Long Xingchun, president of the Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA), a think tank.

Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia programme at the Wilson Center, another think tank, says this face-off is not routine. He adds China’s “massive deployment of soldiers is a show of strength”.

The road could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and material rapidly in case of a conflict.

Differences have been growing in the past year over other areas of policy too.

When India controversially decided to end Jammu and Kashmir’s limited autonomy in August last year, it also redrew the region’s map.

The new federally-administered Ladakh included Aksai Chin, an area India claims but China controls.

Senior leaders of India’s Hindu-nationalist BJP government have also been talking about recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A strategic road, the Karakoram highway, passes through this area that connects China with its long-term ally Pakistan. Beijing has invested about $60bn (£48bn) in Pakistan’s infrastructure – the so-called China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) – as part of its Belt and Road Initiative and the highway is key to transporting goods to and from the southern Pakistani port of Gwadar. The port gives China a foothold in the Arabian Sea.

map
In addition, China was unhappy when India initially banned all exports of medical and protective equipment to shore up its stocks soon after the coronavirus pandemic started earlier this year.

How dangerous could this get?

“We routinely see both armies crossing the LAC – it’s fairly common and such incidents are resolved at the local military level. But this time, the build-up is the largest we have ever seen,” says former Indian diplomat P Stobdan, an expert in Ladakh and India-China affairs.

“The stand-off is happening at some strategic areas that are important for India. If Pangong lake is taken, Ladakh can’t be defended. If the Chinese military is allowed to settle in the strategic valley of Shyok, then the Nubra valley and even Siachen can be reached.”

In what seems to be an intelligence failure, India seems to have been caught off guard again. According to Indian media accounts, the country’s soldiers were outnumbered and surrounded when China swiftly diverted men and machines from a military exercise to the border region.

This triggered alarm in Delhi – and India has limited room for manoeuvre. It can either seek to persuade Beijing to withdraw its troops through dialogue or try to remove them by force. Neither is an easy option.

“China is the world’s second-largest military power. Technologically it’s superior to India. Infrastructure on the other side is very advanced. Financially, China can divert its resources to achieve its military goals, whereas the Indian economy has been struggling in recent years, and the coronavirus crisis has worsened the situation,” says Ajai Shukla.

What next?

History holds difficult lessons for India. It suffered a humiliating defeat during the 1962 border conflict with China. India says China occupies 38,000km of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary issues.

China already controls the Aksai Chin area further east of Ladakh and this region, claimed by India, is strategically important for Beijing as it connect its Xinjiang province with western Tibet.

File photo of an Indian and Chinese soldier on the borderImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption India and China have a long history of border disputes

In 2017 India and China were engaged in a similar stand-off lasting more than two months in Doklam plateau, a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.

India objected to China building a road in a region claimed by Bhutan. The Chinese stood firm. Within six months, Indian media reported that Beijing had built a permanent all-weather military complex there.

This time, too, talks are seen as the only way forward – both countries have so much to lose in a military conflict.

“China has no intention to escalate tensions and I think India also doesn’t want a conflict. But the situation depends on both sides. The Indian government should not be guided by the nationalistic media comments,” says Dr Long Xingchun of the CIWA in Chengdu. “Both countries have the ability to solve the dispute through high-level talks.”

Chinese media have given hardly any coverage to the border issue, which is being interpreted as a possible signal that a route to talks will be sought.

Pratyush Rao, associate director for South Asia at Control Risks consultancy, says both sides have “a clear interest in prioritising their economic recovery” and avoiding military escalation.

“It is important to recognise that both sides have a creditable record of maintaining relative peace and stability along their disputed border.”

Source: The BBC

30/05/2020

Move over James Bond; India returns alleged bird spy to Pakistan

SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) – Indian police have released a pigeon belonging to a Pakistani fisherman after a probe found that the bird, which had flown across the contentious border between the nuclear-armed nations, was not a spy, two officials said on Friday.

“The pigeon was set free yesterday (May 28) after nothing suspicious was found,” said Shailendra Mishra, a senior police official in Indian-administered Kashmir. It was unclear where the bird was released and whether it flew back to its owner.

The Pakistani owner of the pigeon had urged India to return his bird, which Indian villagers turned over to police after discovering it.

“It’s just an innocent bird,” Habibullah, the owner of the bird, who goes by just one name, told Reuters on Friday.

He rejected allegations that the numbers inscribed on a ring on the pigeon’s leg were codes meant for militant groups operating in the disputed region of Kashmir.

Habibullah, who lives in a village near the Kashmir border, one of the most militarised zones in the world, said the bird had participated in a pigeon racing contest and the digits on the bird’s leg were his mobile phone number.

The sport is especially popular in the border villages, said Yasir Khalid of the Shakar Garh Pigeon Club, adding such races are held in India too, and it is not unusual to lose a bird on either side. Owners identify their birds with stamps on the wings, paint and rings on the feet.

“We had to take the bird into our custody to probe if it was being using for spying,” a senior Indian border security officer said requesting anonymity, while explaining this was part of the drill given border sensitivities.

In 2016, a pigeon was taken into Indian custody after it was found with a note threatening Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Source: Reuters

29/05/2020

China, responding to Trump, says no need for a third party in border dispute with India

BEIJING (Reuters) – China said there was no need for a third party to mediate between China and India in an ongoing border dispute, when asked about U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate.

Foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian made the comments a daily briefing Friday.

Source: Reuters

28/05/2020

India coronavirus: Trouble ahead for India’s fight against infections

Coronavirus in IndiaImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption India has more than 150,000 reported infections

On the face of it, things may not look bad.

Since the first case of coronavirus at the end of January, India has reported more than 150,000 Covid-19 infections. More than 4,000 people have died of the infection.

To put this in some context, as of 22 May, India’s testing positivity rate was around 4%, the death rate from the infection around 3% and the doubling rate of infection – or the amount of time it takes for the number of coronavirus cases to double – was 13 days. The recovery rate of infected patients was around 40%.

All this is markedly lower than in the countries badly hit by the pandemic.

Like elsewhere in the world, there are hotspots and clusters of infection.

More than 80% of the active cases are in five states – Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh – and more than 60% of the cases in five cities, including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad, according to official data.

More than half of people who have died of the disease have been aged 60 and older and many have underlying conditions, hewing to the international data about elderly people being more vulnerable to the disease.

The more than two-month-long grinding lockdown, official data suggests, has prevented the loss of between 37,000 and 78,000 lives. A paper published in Harvard Data Science Review appears to support that – it shows an eight-week lockdown can prevent about two million cases and, at a 3% fatality rate, prevent some 60,000 deaths.

“Infection has remained limited to certain areas. This also gives us confidence to open up other areas. It is so far an urban disease,” says VK Paul, who heads the medical emergency management plan on Covid-19.

This is where such claims enter uncertain territory.

India testingImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption India has conducted some 180,000 tests so far

India is now among the top 10 countries worldwide in terms of total reported infections, and among the top five in the number of new cases.

Infections are rising sharply, up from 536 cases on 25 March when the first phase of the world’s harshest lockdown was imposed. The growth of infections is outpacing growth in testing – tests have doubled since April but cases have leapt fourfold.

Epidemiologists say the increase in reported infections is possibly because of increased testing. India has been testing up to 100,000 samples a day in the past week. Testing criteria has been expanded to include asymptomatic contacts of positive patients.

Yet, India’s testing remains one of the lowest in the world per head of population – 2,198 tests per million people.

The bungled lockdown at the end of March triggered an exodus of millions of informal workers who lost their jobs in the cities and began returning home in droves, first on foot and then by train. Some four million workers have travelled by rail from cities to their villages in more than half a dozen states in the past three weeks.

There is mounting evidence that this has already led to the spread of infection from the cities to the villages. And with the messy easing of the lockdown earlier this month, there are growing fears of infections spreading further in the cities.

Rising infections and a still-low fatality rate possibly points to milder infection in a younger population and a large number of asymptomatic cases. The focus, says Amitabh Kant, CEO of the government think-tank NITI Aayog, should be “bringing down fatalities and improving the recovery rate”.

But if the infection rate continues to grow, “things are going to get pretty grim in a few weeks time,” a leading virologist told me.

India lockdownImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Millions of workers have fled the cities and returned to their villages after the lockdown

Doctors in the capital, Delhi, and the western city of Mumbai tell me they are already seeing a steady surge in Covid-19 admissions and worry about a looming shortage of hospital beds, including in critical care.

When the infection peaks in July, as is expected, a spike in infections could easily lead to many avoidable deaths as hospitals run out of beds for, or delay treatment to, infected patients who need timely oxygen support and clinical care to recover.

“That is the real worry. A critical-care bed needs an oxygen line, a ventilator, doctors, nursing staff. Everything will be under pressure,” Dr Ravi Dosi, who is heading a Covid-19 ward at a hospital in Indore, told me. His 50-bed ICU is already full of patients battling the infection.

With the lockdown easing, doctors are feeling jittery. “It’s a tactical nightmare because some people have begun going to work but there is a lot of fear”, says Dr Dosi.

“One co-worker sneezed in the office and 10-15 of his colleagues panicked and came to the hospital and demanded they get tested. These are the pressures that are building up.”

One reason for the confusion is the lack of – or the opacity of – adequate data on the pandemic to help frame a strategic and granular response.

Most experts say a one-size-fits-all strategy to contain the pandemic and impose and lift lockdowns will not work in India where different states will see infection peaks at different times. The reported infection rate – the number of infections for every 100 tests – in Maharashtra state, for example, is three times the national average.

“The infection is not spreading uniformly. India will see staggered waves,” a leading virologist, who insisted on anonymity, told me.

The lack of data means questions abound.

What about some 3,000 cases, which are not being assigned to any state because these people were found infected in places where they don’t live? (To put this into context, nine states in India have more than 3,000 cases.) How many of these cases have died or recovered?

Also, it is not clear whether the current data – sparse, and sporadic – is sufficient to map the future trajectory of the disease.

There is, for example, no robust estimate of carriers of the virus who have no symptoms – last month a senior government scientist said at least “80 out of every 100 Covid-19 patients may be asymptomatic or could be showing mild symptoms”.

coronavirus victim burial in IndiaImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption More than 4,000 people have died of Covid-19 in India

If that is indeed true, then India’s fatality rate is bound to be lower. Atanu Biswas, a professor of statistics, says the predicted trajectory could change “with the huge inclusion of asymptomatic cases”. But, in the absence of data, India cannot be sure.

Also, epidemiologists say, measures like the doubling time of the infections and the reproduction number or R0 have their limitations. R0, or simply the R value, is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. The new coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, has a reproduction number of about three, but estimates vary.

“These measures are good when we are in the middle of a pandemic, less robust with fewer cases. You do need forecasting models for at least a month’s projection to anticipate healthcare needs. We should always evaluate an aggregate of evidence, not just one measure, but a cascade of measures,” Bhramar Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of Michigan, told me.

Others say even calculating the number of recorded infections every day is “not always a good indicator of how an infection is spreading”.

A better option would be to look at the number of new tests and new cases every day that would provide a “degree of standardisation”, K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India, told me.

Likewise, he believes, a measure of how many Covid-19 deaths have occurred compared with the size of a country’s population – the numbers of deaths per million people – is a better indicator of the fatality rate. Reason: the denominator – the country’s population – remains stable.

In the absence of robust and expansive data, India appears to be struggling to predict the future trajectory of the infection.

It is not clear yet how many deaths are not being reported, although there is no evidence of large scale “hidden deaths”.

Coronavirus isolation ward in KolkataImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption A Covid-19 isolation ward in India

Epidemiologists say they would like to see clearer data on deaths due to pneumonia and influenza-like illnesses at this time over the past few years to quantify excess deaths and help with accurate reporting of Covid-19 deaths.

They would also like to see what racial disparities in infections and deaths there are to help improve containment in specific community areas. (In Louisiana, for example, African Americans accounted for 70% of Covid-19 deaths, while comprising 33% of the population.)

What is clear, say epidemiologists, is that India is as yet unable to get a grip on the extent of the spread of infection because of the still limited testing.

“We need reliable forecasting models with projection for the next few weeks for the country and the states,” says Dr Mukherjee.

Epidemiologists say India needs more testing and contact-tracing for both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, as well as isolation and quarantine.

There’s also the need to test based on the “contact network” to stop super-spreader events – frontline workers, delivery workers, essential workers, practically anybody who interacts with a large group of people.

“We have to learn how to manage and minimise risk in our daily lives as the virus is going to be with us,” says Dr Mukherjee.

Without knowing the true number of infected cases India is, in the words of an epidemiologist, “flying blindfolded”.

That can seriously jeopardise India’s fight against the virus and hobble its response in reviving the broken economy.

Source: The BBC

28/05/2020

Trump offers to mediate ‘raging’ India-China border dispute

WASHINGTON/NEW DELHI (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he had offered to mediate a standoff between India and China at the Himalayan border, where soldiers camped out in a high-altitude region have accused each other of trespassing over the disputed border.

“We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute,” Trump said in a Twitter post.

The standoff was triggered by India’s construction of roads and air strips in the region as it competes with China’s spreading Belt and Road initiative, involving infrastructure development and investment in dozens of countries, Indian observers said on Tuesday.

Both were digging defences and Chinese trucks have been moving equipment into the area, the officials said, raising concerns about an extended standoff.

There was no immediate response from either India or China to Trump’s offer. Both countries have traditionally opposed any outside involvement in their matters and are unlikely to accept any U.S. mediation, experts said.

China’s ambassador to India, Sun Weidong, struck a conciliatory note, saying the two Asian countries should not let their differences overshadow the broader bilateral relationship.

“We should adhere to the basic judgment that China and India are each other’s opportunities and pose no threat to each other. We need to see each other’s development in a correct way and enhance strategic mutual trust,” he said, speaking in a webinar on China’s experience of fighting COVID-19.

“We should correctly view our differences and never let the differences shadow the overall situation of bilateral cooperation.”

The two countries are engaged in talks to defuse the border crisis, an Indian government source said. “These things take time, but efforts are on at various levels, military commanders as well as diplomats,” the source said.

The Chinese side has been insisting that India stop construction near the Line of Actual Control or the de facto border. India says all the work is being done on its side of the border and that China must pull back its troops.

Trump in January offered to “help” in another Himalayan trouble spot, the disputed region of Kashmir that is at the center of a decades-long quarrel between India and Pakistan.

But the U.S. offer triggered a political storm in India, which has long bristled at any suggestion of third-party involvement in tackling Kashmir which it considers an integral part of the country.

Source: Reuters

27/05/2020

India heatwave: Delhi temperature hits 47C as north India reels

A Rajasthani woman drinks waterImage copyright GETTY IMAGES
Image caption Churu in Rajasthan state recorded a temperature of 50C

The Indian capital, Delhi, saw temperatures rise to 47.6C on Tuesday, as most of north India faced severe heatwave conditions.

The heatwave, which officials say is likely to last until the weekend, comes even as the region struggles with rising Covid-19 infections and swarms of locusts that are ravaging crops.

Churu in Rajasthan state recorded a temperature of 50C – India’s highest.

Officials have warned people to stay indoors as far as possible.

The temperatures are the highest that the country has seen in decades for this time of the year. In fact, global weather tracking website El Dorado said the region was the hottest in the world on Tuesday.

Weather officials told local media that part of the reason for the heatwave was the powerful storm – Cyclone Amphan – that struck parts of eastern India and Bangladesh last week.

“Super cyclone Amphan sucked out all the moisture from other parts of the country,” Kuldeep Shrivastava, the head of the regional weather forecasting centre told the Hindustan Times newspaper.

Heat waves in recent years have caused a number of deaths across India. There is still no data about the impact of the current temperatures on people.

However, they come even as thousands of migrants are walking on the highways after fleeing cities to try and go back to their villages. Many are walking with little food and water, and will be among the most exposed to the weather.

Previously, those who have died have included people like daily-wage labourers, rickshaw operators and vegetable vendors – those most exposed to the sun.

In addition to that, the heatwave has affected efforts to combat swarms of locusts that are destroying crops in parts of the country, including Rajasthan.

More than 100 workers are battling the insects, using vehicle-mounted sprayers, pesticides and drones in the searing heat.

Source: The BBC

27/05/2020

New Indian roads, air strips sparked border standoff with China, India observers say

NEW DELHI/SRINAGAR (Reuters) – A Himalayan border standoff between old foes India and China was triggered by India’s construction of roads and air strips in the region as it competes with China’s spreading Belt and Road initiative, Indian observers said on Tuesday.

Soldiers from both sides have been camped out in the Galwan Valley in the high-altitude Ladakh region, accusing each other of trespassing over the disputed border, the trigger of a brief but bloody war in 1962.

About 80 to 100 tents have sprung up on the Chinese side and about 60 on the Indian side where soldiers are billeted, Indian officials briefed on the matter in New Delhi and in Ladakh’s capital, Leh, said.

Both were digging defences and Chinese trucks have been moving equipment into the area, the officials said, raising concerns of a long faceoff.

“China is committed to safeguarding the security of its national territorial sovereignty, as well as safeguarding peace and stability in the China-India border areas,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement.

“At present, the overall situation in the border areas is stable and controllable. There are sound mechanisms and channels of communication for border-related affairs, and the two sides are capable of properly resolving relevant issues through dialogue and consultation.”

There was no immediate Indian foreign ministry comment. It said last week Chinese troops had hindered regular Indian patrols along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

But interviews with former Indian military officials and diplomats suggest the trigger for the flare-up is India’s construction of roads and air strips.

“Today, with our infrastructure reach slowly extending into areas along the LAC, the Chinese threat perception is raised,” said former Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao.

“Xi Jinping’s China is the proponent of a hard line on all matters of territory, sovereignty. India is no less when it comes to these matters either,” she said.

After years of neglect Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has pushed for improving connectivity and by 2022, 66 key roads along the Chinese border will have been built.

One of these roads is near the Galwan valley that connects to Daulat Beg Oldi air base, which was inaugurated last October.

“The road is very important because it runs parallel to the LAC and is linked at various points with the major supply bases inland,” said Shyam Saran, another former Indian foreign secretary.

“It remains within our side of the LAC. It is construction along this new alignment which appears to have been challenged by the Chinese.”

China’s Belt and Road is a string of ports, railways, roads and bridges connecting China to Europe via central and southern Asia and involving Pakistan, China’s close ally and India’s long-time foe.

Source: Reuters

Law of Unintended Consequences

continuously updated blog about China & India

ChiaHou's Book Reviews

continuously updated blog about China & India

What's wrong with the world; and its economy

continuously updated blog about China & India