Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
Image caption Passengers gathered outside Secundarabad station in Andhra Pradesh state
India has partially restored train services amid reports of chaos and overcrowding at some stations.
At least 145,000 people will travel in trains on Monday as the country starts to reopen after a prolonged lockdown.
Two hundred trains will now start operations – up from the existing 30 that are currently running.
But maintaining social distancing and cleanliness is proving to be a difficult task as huge crowds gathered outside some stations.
India’s mammoth railway network usually carries 25 million passengers every day.
The ministry of home affairs has issued specific guidelines for the smooth operation of train services. They say that all passengers will have to be screened, social distancing must be followed at the station and in trains and only passengers who have confirmed tickets will be allowed to travel.
Image caption Police struggled to enforce social distancing due to large crowds
But some stations reported chaotic scenes as officials struggled to enforce these guidelines. BBC Telugu reported that people were standing much too close to each other at Secunderabad railway station in the southern state of Telangana.
“Railway staff and police didn’t allow passengers to go inside the station until at least one hour before the scheduled departure, citing physical distancing measures. This led to some chaos outside the railway station as a large number of passengers had gathered and there was no physical distance maintained. Police later arrived and organised the queues,” BBC Telugu’s Sharath Behara says.
Reporting from Delhi, BBC Hindi’s Salman Ravi said strict social distancing was being followed when passengers boarded trains, and all of them wore masks.
Image caption Passengers waiting outside the train station in Delhi
“But the same was not observed at ticket booking counters. Many people who did not have tickets also turned up at the station and that caused crowding,” he added.
Train services came to a grinding halt when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the lockdown on 24 March to stop the spread of coronavirus.
This left millions of daily-wage workers stranded as they desperately tried to go back to their villages from cities. Many of them decided to walk long distances – in some cases more than 1,000 kilometres.
As pressure and criticism mounted, the government started running special trains to ferry migrants. Some 30 trains restarted on 12 May, since then there has been a consistent demand to reopen more routes.
Getting the train network going again is part of the government’s wider strategy to slowly reopen the economy. Millions have lost jobs and factories are struggling to reopen as demand is likely to be sluggish in the coming weeks.
China’s leadership has made it clear to its people that the world will become more dangerous and they must be prepared for hard times
Beijing’s relatively small stimulus response to Covid-19 suggests it wants to save its economic policy ammunition for a bigger battle
China opted not to set a GDP target for 2020. Photo: Xinhua
Beijing’s decision not to set an annual GDP target for 2020 – for the first time since 2002 – is a sign it is putting stability ahead of growth as part of its preparations for an escalating conflict with the United States.
Economic development has always been the central theme for Beijing since it established diplomatic relations with the US in 1979. But this year it has given priority to job creation and tackling poverty. The coronavirus outbreak might appear to have been the reason for the shift, but the underlying factor is the tension with the US.
Covid-19 offered a preview of what a decoupling of China and US might look like: aircraft grounded, cargo flows disrupted, value chains broken, goodwill and cooperation lost, blame games started.
Both countries have suffered heavy human and economic losses from the coronavirus, yet that did not inspire them to work together. Instead, hostility and rivalry has thrived, and neither wants to blink first.
The Chinese leadership has made it clear to its people that the world will become more dangerous and they must be prepared for hard times. As such, the government is saving its economic policy ammunition.
While the stimulus plans introduced in the US, Germany, Japan and France exceed 10 per cent of their national GDP and interest rates have been cut to the bone, Beijing stopped at just 1 trillion yuan (US$140 billion) worth of special treasury bonds and 1.6 trillion yuan of additional local government bonds. In total, about 2.6 per cent of GDP.
Interest rates in China – 2.7 per cent on 10-year bonds – are some of the highest among major economies.
China’s 6.6 per cent defence spending boost lowest in three decades
23 May 2020
China’s budget fiscal deficit has increased to 3.6 per cent of GDP for 2020, but the larger deficit is mainly from tax and fee cuts instead of increased fiscal expenses, except for an increased military spending.
Beijing is calling on provincial and local authorities to tighten their belts, which is unusual for a government that has huge assets and can increase spending at any time through quantitative easing.
So why is the government, which is known for intervening in the economy, being so restrained?
It is bracing itself for a perceived period of turbulence and hardship as its relationship with the US turns sour. It is putting jobs and social stability on top of its agenda, instead of growth.
Beijing is refraining from excessive spending, eliminating sources of potential instability, making appeals to the most vulnerable social groups, and saving its power for a bigger test.
Against that backdrop, the National People’s Congress passed the national security legislation on Hong Kong. Beijing knew the bill would anger the US, but did it anyway.
Hong Kong is known as China’s gateway to the international capital market and the largest offshore yuan market, but Beijing is ready to trade losses on the financial and economic front for potential gain on a fortified national security fence.
All this points to the suggestion that Beijing is preparing for the possibility of decoupling from the US, even if it doesn’t necessarily want to.
The threat of a new Cold War is clouding the world. The theme of life for one or two generations of people on both sides of the Pacific may shift from growth and prosperity to struggle and confrontation.
China and the US have yet to collide totally, but that moment is drawing near.
Image copyright AFPImage caption Embankments have been washed away in Bangladesh
Millions of people across Bangladesh and eastern India are taking stock of the devastation left by Cyclone Amphan.
A massive clean-up operation has begun after the storm left 84 dead and flattened homes, uprooted trees and left cities without power.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arrived in West Bengal state to conduct an aerial survey.
Authorities in both countries had evacuated millions of people before the storm struck.
Covid-19 and social-distancing measures made mass evacuations more difficult, with shelters unable to be used to full capacity.
Officials also said people were afraid and reluctant to move to shelters for fear of contracting the virus.
The cyclone arrived with winds gusting up to 185km/h (115mph) and waves as high as 15ft.
Image copyright REUTERSImage caption Roads have been blocked by falling trees in BangladeshImage copyright AFPImage caption Many people have been injured in wall collapses in Bengal
It is the first super cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal since 1999. Though its winds had weakened by the time it struck, it was still classified as a very severe cyclone.
Three districts in India’s West Bengal – South and North 24 Parganas and East Midnapore – were very badly hit.
In Bangladesh, there are reports of tens of thousands of homes damaged or destroyed and many villages submerged by storm surges in low-lying coastal areas like Khulna and Satkhira.
The affected areas include the Sunderbans, mangroves spread over an area of more than 10,000 square kilometres that spans both India and Bangladesh – the swampy islands are home to more than four million of the world’s poorest people.
Image copyright MUKTIImage caption Many homes, built of brick and mud, have been washed away
Those in the Sunderbans say it is too early to estimate casualties in the area, which is now cut-off from the mainland by the storm.
“There are houses which have collapsed and people could be trapped in them but we don’t know yet,” Debabrat Halder, who runs an NGO in one of the villages, told the BBC.
He recalls cyclone Bulbul in November 2019, which was followed by a huge incidence of fever, diarrhoea and flu, and is afraid that that the same may happen again.
And worse, he adds, is that the flooding from contaminated sea water, has likely destroyed the soil.
“Nothing will grow in this soil,” he says, adding that it will likely take years to convert it into fertile land again.
Image copyright MUKTIImage caption The Sunderbans delta is frequently hit by severe stormsImage copyright MUKTIImage caption Crops have all been destroyed by the flooding
Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal, and one of India’s biggest cities has been devastated. Its roads are flooded and the city was without power for more than 14 hours.
The state’s chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, said the devastation in Kolkata was “a bigger disaster than Covid-19”.
But assessment of the damage is being hampered by blocked roads and flooding in all these areas.
Aerial photo taken on May 19, 2020 shows staff members performing via livestreaming on a cellphone at a historical and cultural area of Fuzhou, southeast China’s Fujian Province. May 19 marks the China Tourism Day. Local authorities in Fuzhou conduct livestreaming via cellphones to enable people elsewhere to have a chance to taste the local cultures.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The village made headlines after photos showed people scaling ladders to get home
They used to call an 800m-high cliff home, but dozens of villagers in China’s Sichuan province have now been relocated to an urban housing estate.
Atulie’er village became famous after photos emerged showing adults and children precariously scaling the cliff using just rattan ladders.
Around 84 households have now been moved into newly built flats as part of a local poverty alleviation campaign.
It’s part of a bigger national campaign to end poverty by the end of 2020.
‘So happy I got a house’
Atulie-er village made headlines in 2016 when it was revealed that its villagers had to scale precarious ladders to get home, carrying babies and anything the village needed.
The households have now been moved to the county town of Zhaojue, around 70km away.
They will be rehoused in furnished apartment blocks, which come in models of 50, 75 and 100 sq m – depending on the number of people in each household.
It’ll be a big change for many of these villagers, who are from the Yi minority and have lived in Atulie-er for generations.
According to Mark Wang, a human geography professor at the University of Melbourne, such housing schemes are often heavily subsidised by the government, typically up to 70%. However, in some instances families have been unable to afford the apartments despite the subsidies.
“For some really poor villages, the 30% may still be difficult for them to pay, so they end up having to borrow money – [ironically] causing them even more debt,” he told BBC News.
“For the poorest, it’s a big financial burden and so in some instances, they might have to stay.”
According to Chinese state media outlet China Daily, each person will have to pay 2,500 yuan ($352; £288) for this particular move – so for a family of four, the cost would come up to 10,000 yuan.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption This is the journey the villagers had to make to get home
This is quite a low price, says Mr Wang, as he had heard of people having to pay up to 40,000 yuan for other relocation projects.
Mr Wang says in most poverty resettlement campaigns, villagers are given a choice whether or not to move, and are not usually moved into cities from the countryside.
“In most instances it’s a move to a county town or a suburb. So it’s not like they’re moving to a big city. Not everyone wants an urban life and most of those who do would have already left these villages and moved to the big cities,” he says.
“Usually the government [puts a limit] on the resettlement distance. This is in most people’s favour because it means they can keep their farm land, so that’s very attractive.”
The Atulie’er villagers will share this new apartment complex with impoverished residents across Sichuan province.
Image copyright CGTN/YOUTUBEImage caption The villagers will be living in these apartment buildings
Around 30 households will remain in the Atulie’er village- which is set to turn into a tourism spot.
According to Chinese state media outlet China Daily, these households will effectively be in charge of local tourism, running inns and showing tourists around.
The county government has ambitious plans – planning to install a cable car to transport tourists to the village and to develop some surrounding areas. An earlier report said there were plans to turn the village into a vacation resort, with state media saying the state would pump 630 million yuan into investment.
Though these developments are likely to bring more jobs to the area, it’s not clear what safeguards are in place to make sure that the site’s ecological areas are protected and not at risk of being overdeveloped.
Media caption Do people in China’s rural communities think poverty reduction can work?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has declared that China will eradicate poverty in China by 2020.
There’s no one standard definition of poverty across all of China, as it differs from province to province.
One widely quoted national standard is 2,300 yuan ($331; £253) net income a year. Under that standard, there were around 30 million people living in poverty across the whole of China in 2017.
But the 2020 deadline is approaching fast – and Mr Wang says the plan could be derailed by the virus outbreak.
“Even without Covid-19 it would be hard to meet this deadline and now realistically, it has made it even more difficult.”
Indian security forces have killed a prominent militant leader in disputed Kashmir, officials say.
Riyaz Naikoo had taken over command of the banned Hizbul Mujahideen group, succeeding Burhan Wani who was killed by security forces in 2016.
Wani’s death triggered massive protests in the region, which is claimed in its entirety by both India and Pakistan.
The region has seen an armed insurgency against Indian rule since 1989, which has flared following Wani’s killing.
Naikoo was shot dead in his home village of Beigh Pora in Pulwama district after militants killed eight security personnel in two separate attacks, part of a recent surge of violence in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Locals said the militant leader had been trapped in a joint siege laid by army, paramilitary and police forces. He had been on the run for eight years.
“At least 76 militants including Naikoo have been killed since January this year. But we also lost 20 soldiers including senior army and police officers,” a security official told BBC Urdu on condition of anonymity.
Under a new policy, militants who are killed are not identified and their bodies are not handed over to their families.
Officials had accused Riyaz Naikoo of plotting attacks against the security establishment in the valley.
Disputed Kashmir has been a flashpoint for more than 60 years, sparking two wars between India and Pakistan.
In August 2019, the Indian government stripped the region of its semi-autonomous status and split it into two federally-run territories.
Thousands of people were detained and the region remains under severe security restrictions.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Only Taiwan’s democratically-elected government can represent its people on the world stage, not China, its foreign ministry said on Tuesday, calling on the World Health Organization (WHO) to “cast off” China’s control during the coronavirus pandemic.
Taiwan’s exclusion from WHO, due to China’s objections which considers the island one of its provinces, has infuriated Taipei, which says this has created a dangerous gap in the global fight against the coronavirus.
Taiwan has been lobbying to attend, as an observer, this month’s meeting of the WHO’s decision-making body, the World Health Assembly (WHA), although government and diplomatic sources say China will block the move.
Steven Solomon, the WHO’s principal legal officer, said on Monday that the WHO recognised the People’s Republic of China as the “one legitimate representative of China”, in keeping with U.N. policy since 1971, and that the question of Taiwan’s attendance was one for the WHO’s 194 member states.
Speaking in Taipei, Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou said the 1971 decision, under which Beijing assumed the U.N. China seat from Taipei, only resolved the issue of who represented China, not the issue of Taiwan, and did not grant China the power to represent Taiwan internationally.
“Only the democratically-elected Taiwanese government can represent Taiwan’s 23 million people in the international community,” she told reporters.
The WHO should “cast off the Chinese government’s control”, and let Taiwan fully participate in fighting the virus, Ou said.
“Do not let China’s improper political interference become an obstacle to impeding the world’s united fight against the virus.”
Taiwan attended the World Health Assembly as an observer from 2009-2016 when Taipei-Beijing relations warmed.
But China blocked further participation after the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who China views as a separatist, charges she rejects.
The United States has strongly supported Taiwan’s participation at the WHA as an observer, another fault line in Washington-Beijing ties that have been already overshadowed by the Trump administration’s criticism of how China and the WHO have handled the outbreak.
China says Taiwan is adequately represented by Beijing and that Taiwan can only take part in the WHO under Beijing’s “one China” policy, in which Taiwan would have to accept that it is part of China, something Tsai’s government will not do.
Taiwan has reported far fewer cases of the new coronavirus than many of its neighbours, due to early and effective detection and prevention work.
BEIJING (Reuters) – Tang Yue, a 27-year-old teacher from the city of Guilin in southwest China, steam-presses a blue dress and takes dozens of photographs before picking one to clinch her 200th online sale.
For a growing number of Chinese like Tang, hit by job losses, furloughs and salary cuts, the consumer economy has begun to spin in reverse. They are no longer buying – they are selling.
Instead of emerging from the coronavirus epidemic and returning to the shopping habits that helped drive the world’s second-largest economy, many young people are offloading possessions and embracing a new-found ethic for hard times: less is more.
With Tang’s monthly salary of about 7,000 yuan ($988), the self-described shopaholic said she has bought everything from Chanel lipsticks to Apple’s (AAPL.O) latest iPad in the past three years.
But the adrenaline rush that comes with binge-shopping is gone, said Tang, whose wages have been slashed with the suspension of all the classes on tourism management she usually teaches.
“The coronavirus outbreak was a wake-up call,” she said. “When I saw the collapse of so many industries, I realised I had no financial buffer should something unfortunate happen to me.”
There is no guarantee that the nascent minimalist trend will continue once the coronavirus crisis is fully over, but if it does, it could seriously damage China’s consumer sector and hurt thousands of businesses from big retailers to street-corner restaurants, gyms and beauty salons.
To be sure, there are signs that pent-up demand will drive a rush of spending as authorities reopen malls, leisure venues and tourist spots. In South Korea, the first major economy outside of China to be hit by the virus, people thronged malls this weekend to go “revenge shopping” to make up for time lost in lockdown.,
There are some signs that a similar trend will take hold in China, where some upscale malls are starting to get busy, although luxury firm Kering SA (PRTP.PA) – which owns Gucci, Balenciaga and other fashion brands – has said it is hard to predict how or when sales in China might come back.
A recent McKinsey & Co survey showed that between 20% and 30% of respondents in China said they would continue to be cautious, either consuming slightly less or, in a few cases, a lot less.
“The lockdown provided consumers with a lot of time and reasons to reflect and consider what is important to them,” said Mark Tanner, managing director at Shanghai-based research and marketing consultancy China Skinny.
“With much more of their days spent in their homes, consumers also have more time and reasons to sort through things they don’t feel they need – so they’re not living around clutter that is common in many apartments.”
#DITCHYOURSTUFF
Tang made a spreadsheet to keep track of her nearly 200 cosmetic products and hundreds of pieces of clothing. She then marked a few essentials in red that she wanted to keep. In the past two months, she has sold items worth nearly 5,000 yuan on second-hand marketplaces online.
Bargain-hunting online has become a new habit for some Chinese as the stigma that once hung over second-hand goods has begun to fade.
Idle Fish, China’s biggest online site for used goods, hit a record daily transaction volume in March, its parent company Alibaba (BABA.N) told Reuters.
Government researchers predict that transactions for used goods in China may top 1 trillion yuan ($141 billion) this year.
Posts with the hashtag #ditchyourstuff have trended on Chinese social media in recent weeks, garnering more than 140 million views.
Jiang Zhuoyue, 31, who works as an accountant at a traditional Chinese medicine company in Beijing – one of the few industries that may benefit from the health crisis – has also decided to turn to a simpler life.
“I used to shop too much and could be easily lured by discounts,” said Jiang. “One time Sephora offered 20% off for all goods, I then bought a lot of cosmetics because I feel I’m losing money if I don’t.”
Jiang, the mother of a 9-month-old baby, said she recently sold nearly 50 pieces of used clothing as the lockdown gave her the opportunity to clear things out. “It also offered me a chance to rethink what’s essential to me, and the importance of doing financial planning,” she said.
Eleven Li, a 23-year-old flight attendant, said she used to spend her money on all manner of celebrity-endorsed facial masks, snacks, concert tickets and social media activity, but now has no way to fund her spending.
“I just found a new job late last year, then COVID-19 came along, and I haven’t been able to fly once since I joined, and I’ve gotten no salary at all,” said Li, who said she was trying to sell her Kindle.
Some are even selling their pets, as they consider leaving big cities like Beijing and Shanghai where the high cost of living is finally catching up with them.
NO RETURN TO OLD WAYS?
As the coronavirus comes under control in China, the government is gradually releasing cities from lockdown, easing transport restrictions and encouraging consumers to venture back into malls and restaurants by giving out billions-worth of cash vouchers, worth between 10 yuan and 100 yuan.
But many people say they are still worried about job security and potential wage cuts because of the struggling economy. Nationwide retail sales have plunged every month so far this year.
Xu Chi, a Shanghai-based senior strategic analyst with Zhongtai Securities, said some Chinese consumers may prove the ‘21 Day Habit Theory,’ a popular scientific proposition that it only takes that long to establish new habits.
“We believe people’s spending patterns follow the well-known theory, which means most people in China, having been cooped-up at home for more than a month and not having binge-shopped, may break the habit and not return to their old ways,” Xu said.
Jiang said she was determined not to return to her free-spending ways and planned to cook more at home.
“I’ll turn to cheaper goods for some luxury brands,” she said. “I’ll choose Huawei’s smartphone, because (Apple’s) iPhone has too much brand premium.”
Tang, who has recently used 100 yuan of shopping coupons to stock up on food, is going to hold the purse strings even tighter.
“I’ve set my monthly budget at 1,000 yuan,” she said. “Including one – and just one – bottle of bubble tea.”
People drive kartings at a resort during the International Labor Day holiday in Anshan, northeast China’s Liaoning Province, May 2, 2020. (Xinhua/Yao Jianfeng)
BEIJING, May 2 (Xinhua) — A Chinese health official on Saturday urged people to wear masks correctly and avoid travel during peak hours over coronavirus concerns in the May Day holiday.
Travelers are encouraged to reserve visiting slots in advance, and pay attention to their temperatures, said Mi Feng, a spokesperson for the National Health Commission, at a press conference in Beijing.
Some tourist attractions have seen large crowds of tourists not wearing masks Friday, the first day of the five-day May Day holiday, Mi said.
China recorded more than 23 million domestic tourist trips Friday, with the domestic tourism revenue reaching over 9.7 billion yuan (about 1.38 billion U.S. dollars), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
People drive kartings at a resort during the International Labor Day holiday in Anshan, northeast China’s Liaoning Province, May 2, 2020. (Xinhua/Yao Jianfeng)
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 