Archive for ‘rumour’

28/04/2020

Kim Jong-un: Who might lead N Korea without Kim?

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un before a meeting with US President Donald Trump on the south side of the Military Demarcation Line that divides North and South Korea, in the Joint Security Area (JSA) of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized zone (DMZ) on June 30, 2019.Image copyright BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI
Image caption Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks

Speculation and rumour about Kim Jong-un’s health may amount to nothing, but questions about who might succeed him in the short or long term will always be there. The BBC spoke to analysts about the contenders and whether history is on their side.

A male member of the Kim family has been in charge of North Korea ever since its founding by Kim Il-sung in 1948 – and the mythology of this family runs deep throughout society.

Propaganda about its greatness begins for citizens before they can even read: pre-schoolers sing a song called: “I want to see our leader Kim Jong-un.”

So how can you imagine a North Korea without this symbolic and political figure at the top? How would elites organise themselves, as well as society as a whole?

The easy answer is: we don’t know. More interestingly, they don’t know either. They have never had to do it.

Presentational grey line

There has always been a Kim…

Archives: Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in South Korea in November, 1994-Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong ll, Mt.Paekdu.Image copyrightXINHUA
Image captionKim Il-sung is the founder of North Korea and his son Kim Jong-il took over

As Kim Jong-un was being prepared for power, they even began using the term “Paektu Bloodline” to help legitimise his rule. Paektu is the sacred and mythologised mountain where Kim Il-sung is said to have waged guerrilla war and where Kim Jong-il was reportedly born. Kim Jong-un still goes there when he wants to emphasise important policy decisions.

There has always been a Kim at the ideological heart of the country.

What would North Korea be like without such an heir? Kim Jong-un, 36, is believed to have children – but they are far too young. It is thought he has three children, the oldest being 10 and the youngest three. Kim Jong-un himself was considered young when he took power – he was 27.

It is likely that some sort of group leadership would emerge, perhaps as in Vietnam, that leans heavily on the founder’s teachings and legitimacy to boost their own standing.

Observers can track who holds certain key positions and can follow news and open-source intelligence about important institutions, but can’t really tell how factions are developing, nor who is holding power through personal rather than institutional bonds. Moreover, sometimes vice or deputy directors wield more real power than the titular heads of institutions. This makes all predictions extremely difficult.

The three remaining Kims

Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, arrives at the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympic Games at PyeongChang Olympic Stadium on February 9, 2018 in Pyeongchang-gun, South Korea.Image copyrightPATRICK SEMANSKY – POOL /GETTY IMAGES
Image captionKim Yo-jong, as the only woman in the top leadership, has sparked fascination

The are three Kims who could potentially be involved in the political make-up of North Korea if Kim Jong-un were to disappear. They all face limitations in carrying on family rule.

The first is Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister. She is said to have been a favourite of her father who commented on her precocity, her interest in politics from a young age. Her manner is efficient, mild and one suspects rather observant. Much has been made of her closeness to her brother. At the Singapore Trump-Kim summit she was famously on hand to pass him a pen to sign the agreement with, and at the next summit in Hanoi, was pictured peeking out from behind corners as her brother posed for statesman-like photos.

Yet she was not above a temporary demotion after the Hanoi summit – purportedly because of its failure although this will never be confirmed. She doesn’t sit on the top policy-making body, the State Affairs Commission, but is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) of the Workers’ Party of Korea. These may seem like incomprehensible acronyms but the PAD is a powerful organisation that ensures ideological loyalty in the system.

She is a woman, however, and this makes it hard to imagine her occupying the top position in such a deeply patriarchal country. North Korea is an extremely male state, in which gender carries rigid expectations. Being supreme leader, and certainly running the military, does not fit in the range of womanly duties.

The second is Kim Jong-chul. He is Kim Jong-un’s older brother, but has never appeared interested in politics or power. (He is known to be interested in Eric Clapton.) At most, he could be a symbolic link to the Kim family: perhaps made the head of a foundation and put forward to read the odd speech.

The final one is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother. His mother – Kim Jong-il’s stepmother – was angling to have him become Kim Il-sung’s successor. She failed and was sidelined by Kim Jong-il as he rose in influence. Kim Pyong-il was sent to Europe in 1979, where he has held various ambassadorships, returning to North Korea only last year. This means it is very unlikely he has the network to be a central player in elite politics in Pyongyang.

The second-most powerful man in North Korea right now

The special envoy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, Choe Ryong Hae (R), a secretary of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers Party, meets on November 20, 2014 with the Russian foreign minister in Moscow .Image copyrightALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Image captionAs special envoy for Kim Jong-un Choe Ryong-hae (right) has met foreign dignitaries

There are other individuals who have been central in the Kim Jong-un era, but it is difficult to know who among them would form co-operative relationships and who would compete with one another.

One is Choe Ryong-hae. He has had his ups and downs under Kim Jong-un, but having weathered a few storms currently sits on the presidium of the politburo and is also first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission. Last year he became the first new president in 20 years, replacing the aging Kim Yong-nam – so he is the person who represents the North at international engagements.

Choe has also held high positions in the military and the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) of the Worker’s Party of Korea, responsible for enforcing loyalty throughout the regime. This is an extremely powerful organisation: it enforces the adherence of all citizens to North Korea’s ideology. He is probably the second most powerful man in North Korea.

The old spymasters and rising political grandees

US President Donald Trump stands with Kim Yong Chol, former North Korean military intelligence chief and one of leader Kim Jong Un's closest aides, on the South Lawn of the White House on June 1, 2018 in Washington, DC.Image copyrightOLIVIER DOULIERY-POOL/GETTY IMAGES
Image captionKim Yong-chol travelled to Washington DC to meet Donald Trump

Another is Kim Yong-chol. This general paved the way for the Trump-Kim summits, meeting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo several times. He has been head of the United Front Department (responsible for relations with South Korea) and the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s main intelligence service. He seems to have suffered a demotion following the collapse talks with the United States, but it is unlikely this spymaster will remain obscure for long.

Yet another is Kim Jae-ryong. As well as being on the State Affairs Commission, he is Premier of the Cabinet, a moderately influential position. Relatively little is known about him, but his star has risen in the past years as others have fallen. He is known for managing industries and ran the most isolated province, home to key military-industrial sites, for several years. This may mean he has been closely involved in the nuclear program.

Jong Kyong-taek is responsible for the State Security Department, which investigates and punishes political crimes. It also helps physically protect the leadership. These are crucial responsibilities that help enforce stability in the system.

Hwang Pyong-so is another official who has held top military posts and has run the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era. Like Choe (and many others) he has been disciplined; he doesn’t seem to have been rehabilitated in the same way, however. Other 2010s foreign policy stalwarts Ri Yong-ho and Ri Su-yong have also seen roles diminish recently. They have been replaced by Ri Son-gwon and Kim Hyung-jun. The former is said to be an ally of Kim Yong-chol.

The military enforcers

A handful of top generals of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) would also certainly exert influence in any transition period. Currently, two men sit atop the General Political Bureau of the KPA, Kim Su-gil and Kim Won-hong. This bureau enforces political loyalty in the military, something that would be absolutely crucial during periods of uncertainty.

Kim Won-hong, helps illustrate how difficult it is to predict how power would be shared if Kim Jong-un were no longer there. Kim Won-hong and Hwang Pyong-so had been thought to be rivals, competing to influence Kim Jong-un at the other’s expense.

Amongst top elites, who would clash and who would ally? Would there be pro and anti-Kim Yo-jong factions? Would the fear of instability stop rivalries from getting out of hand? After all, it is in no elite politician’s interest to see the state collapse, opening the door for some kind of takeover by South Korea, or even China.

There is currently no perfect contender: his sister would have to overcome the sexism and the break from tradition of a male heir. Anybody else is not directly descended from that all-important Paektu bloodline. but in the end, they will all have to think of the unity of the state they have defied every international norm to preserve.

07/02/2020

Li Wenliang: Coronavirus death of Wuhan doctor sparks anger

Dr Li posts a picture of himself in a gas mask from his hospital bed on FridayImage copyright DR LI WENLIANG
Image caption Dr Li had posted a picture of himself on social media from his hospital bed

The death of a Chinese doctor who tried to warn about the coronavirus outbreak has sparked an unprecedented level of public anger and grief in China.

Li Wenliang died after contracting the virus while treating patients in Wuhan.

Last December he sent a message to fellow medics warning of a virus he thought looked like Sars – another deadly coronavrius.

But he was told by police to “stop making false comments” and was investigated for “spreading rumours”.

News of his death was met with an intense outpouring of grief on Chinese social media site Weibo – but this quickly turned into anger.

There had already been accusations against the government of downplaying the severity of the virus – and initially trying to keep it secret.

Dr Li’s death has fuelled this further and triggered a conversation about the lack of freedom of speech in China.

The country’s anti-corruption body has now said it will open an investigation into “issues involving Dr Li”.

The Chinese government has previously admitted “shortcomings and deficiencies” in its response to the virus, which has now killed 636 people and infected 31,161 in mainland China.

Graphic showing the number of cases in China so far
Presentational white space

According to Chinese site Pear Video, Dr Li’s wife is due to give birth in June.

What has the public reaction been?

Chinese social media has been flooded with anger – it is hard to recall an event in recent years that has triggered as much grief, rage and mistrust against the government.

The top two trending hashtags on the website were “Wuhan government owes Dr Li Wenliang an apology” and “We want freedom of speech”.

Both hashtags were quickly censored. When the BBC searched Weibo on Friday, hundreds of thousands of comments had been wiped. Only a handful remain.

“This is not the death of a whistleblower. This is the death of a hero,” said one comment on Weibo.

A photo circulating on Twitter reportedly sourced from messaging platform WeChat also shows a message in Chinese saying “Farewell Li Wenliang” written in the snow on a riverbank.

Many have now taken to posting under the hashtag “Can you manage, do you understand?” – a reference to the letter Dr Li was told to sign when he was accused of disturbing “social order”.

These comments do not directly name him – but are telling of the mounting anger and distrust towards the government.

Media caption Coronavirus: Shanghai’s deserted streets and metro

“Do not forget how you feel now. Do not forget this anger. We must not let this happen again,” said one comment on Weibo.

“The truth will always be treated as a rumour. How long are you going to lie? What else do you have to hide?” another said.

“If you are angry with what you see, stand up,” one said. “To the young people of this generation, the power of change is with you.”

Presentational grey line

An epic political disaster

Analysis box by Stephen McDonell, China correspondent

The death of Dr Li Wenliang has been a heart-breaking moment for this country. For the Chinese leadership it is an epic political disaster.

It lays bare the worst aspects of China’s command and control system of governance under Xi Jinping – and the Communist Party would have to be blind not to see it.

If your response to a dangerous health emergency is for the police to harass a doctor trying to blow the whistle, then your structure is obviously broken.

The city’s mayor – reaching for excuses – said he needed clearance to release critical information which all Chinese people were entitled to receive.

Now the spin doctors and censors will try to find a way to convince 1.4 billion people that Dr Li’s death is not a clear example of the limits to the party’s ability to manage an emergency – when openness can save lives, and restricting it can kill.

Chinese people are going to take some convincing.

Presentational grey line

How was the death announced?

There was confusion over when exactly Dr Li had actually died.

He was initially declared dead at 21:30 on Thursday (13:30GMT) by state media outlets the Global Times, People’s Daily and others.

Hours later the Global Times contradicted this report – saying he had been given a treatment known as ECMO, which keeps a person’s heart pumping.

Journalists and doctors at the scene said government officials had intervened – and official media outlets had been told to change their reports to say the doctor was still being treated.

But early on Friday, reports said doctors could not save Dr Li and his time of death was 02:58 on Friday.

Li WenliangImage copyright LI WENLIANG
Image caption Li Wenliang contracted the virus while working at Wuhan Central Hospital

What did Li Wenliang do?

Dr Li, an ophthalmologist, posted his story on Weibo from a hospital bed a month after sending out his initial warning.

He had noticed seven cases of a virus that he thought looked like Sars – the virus that led to a global epidemic in 2003.

On 30 December he sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them to wear protective clothing to avoid infection.

Graphic showing how the virus spread inside China
Four days later he was summoned to the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter.

In the letter he was accused of “making false comments” that had “severely disturbed the social order”. Local authorities later apologised to Dr Li.

In his Weibo post he describes how on 10 January he started coughing, the next day he had a fever and two days later he was in hospital. He was diagnosed with the coronavirus on 30 January.

Media caption The BBC’s online health editor on what we know about the virus

What is the latest on the coronavirus?

Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his US counterpart Donald Trump that China is “fully confident and capable of defeating the epidemic”. The country has introduced more restrictive measures to try to control the outbreak:

  • The capital Beijing has banned group dining for events such as birthdays. Cities including Hangzhou and Nanchang are limiting how many family members can leave home each day
  • Hubei province has switched off lifts in high-rise buildings to discourage residents from going outside.

The virus has now spread to more than 25 countries. There have been more than 28,000 cases worldwide but only two of the deaths have been outside mainland China.

Source: The BBC

17/09/2019

China gripped after sighting of its own ‘Loch Ness Monster’

Footage showed a long black creatureImage copyright PEAR VIDEO
Image caption Grainy footage showed something that appeared to have a tail slithering back and forth in the water

Something is lurking in the deep in China’s famous Yangtze River – and social media discussion is rife over what it might be.

On Friday, footage appeared on China’s popular Sina Weibo microblog of what appeared to be a long, black creature, manoeuvring through the waters, and it has dominated online discussion ever since.

Footage has quickly racked up millions of views, and theories are rife.

Specialists have weighed in – but some think there may be a simple, and less murky, explanation.

Excitement over footage

A video filmed off the coast of the city of Yichang in western Hubei province, close to the Three Gorges Dam, captured the unusual scene.

The video has racked up more than six million views and hundreds of thousands of likes after being shared by the popular Pear Video, and shows what looks like a giant eel or snake slithering along the surface of the water.

Locals are filmed watching the creature from the shore – and social media users have similarly been captivated over theories about what the creature might be.

Many have posted using the hashtag #ThreeGorgesMonsterPhotos, and specialists have begun to weigh in with their thoughts.

In an interview with Pear Video, Professor Wang Chunfang from the Huazhong Agricultural University dismissed the idea of it being a new species, saying it was likely a simple “water snake”.

Some users said that “external factors such as pollution” could have a role to play in a sea snake growing to an extraordinary size. But not everyone was convinced.

Separate footage has led some users to question whether the unidentified object is actually a living creature at all.

Different footage of China's 'Loch Ness'Image copyright THE PAPER
Image caption Millions have watched footage of the item, but some think it might be a piece of simple rubbish

Popular news website The Paper shared separate footage of something long and black moving in the water that appeared to be less animated.

It asked if the whole thing was simply “a rumour” – and interviewed a biologist, Ding Li, who said that the object was neither a fish nor a snake, but simply “a floating object”.

A picture has since gone viral showing a long piece of black cloth washed up on some rocks, fuelling discussion this might have been the mysterious object.

Could the item have been a piece of black cloth?Image copyright THE PAPER
Image caption The appearance of some cloth washed up on some rocks has got users asking if they were mistaken

Both have led to jokes about whether the local government was trying to attract tourism to the area, given the millions of dollars involved in building and maintaining the Three Gorges Dam.

Others have made jokes about the quality of the footage, despite the rapid development in China of high quality smartphones.

Some joked that the user obviously didn’t have a Huawei phone. Another said: “Monsters always appear only when there are few pixels.”

So what does live in the Yangtze?

A baby Giant Chinese salamanderImage copyright AFP
Image caption Giant Chinese salamanders live in the Yangtze river. They can grow to 1.8 metres in length

The Yangtze River is the longest river in Asia, and at 3,900 miles in length (6,300km), is the third longest in the world.

But pollution has severely affected the river in recent years, meaning that its ecosystem has become narrower, rather than wider.

The largest creature thought to exist in the waters at present is the Chinese giant salamander, which can reach some 1.8m in length.

This species is critically endangered, largely as a result of pollution.

The Three Gorges Dam is the world's latest hydroelectric damImage copyright ZHANG PENG/GETTY IMAGES
Image caption The Three Gorges Dam is the world’s latest hydroelectric dam

China’s other ‘Nessies’

China is no stranger to conspiracy theories about mythical creatures lurking in the deep.

Since 1987, questions have been asked about whether a “Lake Monster” exists in the Kanas Lake in north-western Xinjiang, following numerous reports of sightings.

However, specialists believe that this is a giant taimen, a species of salmon that can grow to 180cm long, the official China Daily said.

More recently, in August 2017, footage went viral showing an unusual water creature seemingly raising its head in the waters of Luoping County in Southwest Yunnan province.

Officials, however, dismissed the “monster” as either an alligator, or a piece of floating rubbish.

Source: The BBC

02/09/2019

Pregnant India woman beaten over child kidnapping rumour

Members of All India Students Association (AISA) hold placards as they protest against the mob lynchings in the country, at Parliament street, on June 22, 2018 in New Delhi, IndiaImage copyright GETTY IMAGES

A pregnant woman has been beaten by people who suspected her of kidnapping a child in the Indian capital Delhi.

Police told the BBC that the woman, 25, was in a stable condition and that three people had been arrested.

It is the latest incident in a wave of attacks fuelled by rumours of child kidnapping in the capital and neighbouring states.

Last year, a similar spate of attacks saw several people beaten and killed over rumours of child kidnappings.

Footage of the incident shows the woman surrounded by a group of people. They can be heard accusing her of kidnapping children and beating her.

The highest number of such cases has been registered in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, which borders Delhi.

“At least 46 cases have been reported until 29 August. In all cases, we found that there was no evidence of child trafficking,” director general of police OP Singh told the BBC.

“We appeal to the people to not believe in such rumours. If you are in doubt, just reach out to the police through phone [dial in number 100] or social media,” he added.

Media captionThe India WhatsApp video driving people to murder

In Ghaziabad district, which is on the outskirts of Delhi, six cases were registered in August.

“In one case, a group of people attacked a grandmother while she was out with her grandchild. People attacked her because her skin colour was different to her grandchild,” senior police officer Neeraj Jadaun said, adding that all suspects in the case had been arrested.

While incidents like this are being reported across India, it is not clear if kidnappings are on the rise.

Rumours of child kidnappings often spread over text messages or WhatsApp, according to reports.

Officials have urged people not to believe messages linked to child abductions and are yet to find any incidents of child abduction related to the spate of messages and videos being shared online.

Source: The BBC

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