Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
BEIJING, May 31 (Xinhua) — The U.S. government has been slammed at home and abroad after announcing on Friday “terminating” its relationship with the World Health Organization (WHO).
U.S. health experts and lawmakers have expressed concern over the decision announced by President Donald Trump amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
Patrice Harris, president of the American Medical Association, described Trump’s move as a “senseless” action with “significant, harmful repercussions.”
“COVID-19 affects us all and does not respect borders; defeating it requires the entire world working together,” Harris was quoted by CNN as saying, urging Trump to reverse the course.
Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law and director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University, described the move as “foolish and arrogant” in his Twitter account.
“Trump’s action is an enormous disruption and distraction during an unprecedented health crisis,” said Gostin, also the director of the WHO collaborating center on national and global health law. “The President has made us less safe.”
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia said that “the United States cannot eliminate this virus on its own and to withdraw from the World Health Organization — the world’s leading public health body — is nothing short of reckless,” according to a CNN report.
Even within the Republican party, some Republicans also expressed their disagreement. Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander reportedly said he disagreed with Trump’s decision, because, without U.S. funding, clinical trials to develop a COVID-19 vaccine might be hampered.
In addition, the European Union (EU) has urged the United States to reconsider its termination of ties with the WHO, warning that Trump’s move would erode global efforts to curb the spread of the virus.
“The WHO needs to continue being able to lead the international response to pandemics, current and future. For this, the participation and support of all is required and very much needed. In the face of this global threat, now is the time for enhanced cooperation and common solutions. Actions that weaken international results must be avoided,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said in the statement on Saturday.
“In this context, we urge the U.S. to reconsider its announced decision,” the statement said.
German Health Minister Jens Spahn tweeted that Trump’s move was “a disappointing backlash for International Health.”
“The EU must take a leading role and engage more financially,” Spahn said, noting that this would be one of Germany’s priorities when it becomes the bloc’s rotating presidency on July 1.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson said earlier that Britain “has no plans to stop funding the WHO, which has an important role to play in leading the global health response.”
“Coronavirus is a global challenge and it is essential that countries work together to tackle this shared threat,” the spokesperson was quoted by The Guardian as saying.
Irish Minister for Health Simon Harris on Friday described Trump’s move as an “awful decision.”
“A global pandemic requires the world working together … We should unite in our fight against it (COVID-19) & not fight each other,” Harris tweeted.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told TASS news agency that Washington “dealt a blow” to the international framework for cooperation in healthcare at the moment when the world needed to join forces.
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Only Taiwan’s democratically-elected government can represent its people on the world stage, not China, its foreign ministry said on Tuesday, calling on the World Health Organization (WHO) to “cast off” China’s control during the coronavirus pandemic.
Taiwan’s exclusion from WHO, due to China’s objections which considers the island one of its provinces, has infuriated Taipei, which says this has created a dangerous gap in the global fight against the coronavirus.
Taiwan has been lobbying to attend, as an observer, this month’s meeting of the WHO’s decision-making body, the World Health Assembly (WHA), although government and diplomatic sources say China will block the move.
Steven Solomon, the WHO’s principal legal officer, said on Monday that the WHO recognised the People’s Republic of China as the “one legitimate representative of China”, in keeping with U.N. policy since 1971, and that the question of Taiwan’s attendance was one for the WHO’s 194 member states.
Speaking in Taipei, Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou said the 1971 decision, under which Beijing assumed the U.N. China seat from Taipei, only resolved the issue of who represented China, not the issue of Taiwan, and did not grant China the power to represent Taiwan internationally.
“Only the democratically-elected Taiwanese government can represent Taiwan’s 23 million people in the international community,” she told reporters.
The WHO should “cast off the Chinese government’s control”, and let Taiwan fully participate in fighting the virus, Ou said.
“Do not let China’s improper political interference become an obstacle to impeding the world’s united fight against the virus.”
Taiwan attended the World Health Assembly as an observer from 2009-2016 when Taipei-Beijing relations warmed.
But China blocked further participation after the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who China views as a separatist, charges she rejects.
The United States has strongly supported Taiwan’s participation at the WHA as an observer, another fault line in Washington-Beijing ties that have been already overshadowed by the Trump administration’s criticism of how China and the WHO have handled the outbreak.
China says Taiwan is adequately represented by Beijing and that Taiwan can only take part in the WHO under Beijing’s “one China” policy, in which Taiwan would have to accept that it is part of China, something Tsai’s government will not do.
Taiwan has reported far fewer cases of the new coronavirus than many of its neighbours, due to early and effective detection and prevention work.
Warship joined by at least five escort vessels and analysts say the drills were ‘very significant’ to show the strike group wasn’t hit by coronavirus
Latest exercises also seen as putting pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces, with strike group sailing through the strait
The Liaoning is seen as having a big role in the Chinese military’s plan to unify Taiwan by force. Photo: AFP
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its home port of Qingdao on Thursday after nearly a month of training on the high seas, the People’s Liberation Army said.
According to military analysts, the warship was joined by at least five escort vessels, and the drills showed its crew had not been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and that it remained combat-ready.
The annual cross-region drills included intensive and complicated air and sea operations, the official PLA Daily said in a post on social media on Friday.
“The drills have further improved the real combat training level of the Liaoning carrier strike group, putting its systematic combat capability to the test,” the statement on WeChat said, without giving other details.
It was the longest training session by China’s navy since the PLA resumed all large-scale drills in March, after they were suspended because of disruptions to transport and military resources across the country as the deadly new virus rapidly spread.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said it was important for the carrier to get back to training activities.
“The recent training by the Liaoning carrier strike group is very significant because it’s evidence that none of the 2,000 sailors and commanders on the ship have been hit by Covid-19, and neither have any of the other soldiers and personnel on the other warships and support units,” Li said.
The coronavirus situation has eased in China, where the first cases were reported late last year, but it continues to spread across the globe and has infected more than 3.2 million people worldwide and killed over 233,000.
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The virus has also hit crew members on at least 40 US Navy warships, and Li said that left China with the only operational aircraft carrier in the region.
“Since the four American aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific region have all been struck by the pandemic, China is the only country that can operate an aircraft carrier in the area,” he said.
US warship captain seeks to isolate crew members as coronavirus spreads
Taiwan’s defence ministry reported earlier that the Liaoning flotilla had sailed through the Taiwan Strait twice last month as it headed towards the western Pacific, prompting the self-ruled island to scramble aircraft and send warships to monitor its movements.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said the Liaoning was escorted by two destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship, and they had passed through the Bashi Channel, a waterway to the south of Taiwan, and headed towards waters east of Taiwan.
As tensions continue to simmer between Taipei and Beijing, the PLA has stepped up activities around the island, which the mainland sees as part of its territory awaiting reunification.
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the latest naval drills were also aimed at heaping more pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces as well as foreign countries seeking to intervene in cross-strait issues.
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“Taiwan’s pro-independence forces have become more active and are attempting to take advantage amid the pandemic,” said Song, a military commentator with Phoenix Television.
“The Liaoning would play a major role in the PLA’s plan to unify Taiwan by force, so it’s necessary for the aircraft carrier strike group to get back to operations, step up training and send a warning to Taipei,” he added.
Lu Li-Shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, noted that the PLA Navy had regularly held drills in the waters east of Taiwan in recent years to avoid surveillance by US satellites.
Image copyright BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIImage caption Kim Jong-un has not been seen in public for more than two weeks
Speculation and rumour about Kim Jong-un’s health may amount to nothing, but questions about who might succeed him in the short or long term will always be there. The BBC spoke to analysts about the contenders and whether history is on their side.
A male member of the Kim family has been in charge of North Korea ever since its founding by Kim Il-sung in 1948 – and the mythology of this family runs deep throughout society.
Propaganda about its greatness begins for citizens before they can even read: pre-schoolers sing a song called: “I want to see our leader Kim Jong-un.”
So how can you imagine a North Korea without this symbolic and political figure at the top? How would elites organise themselves, as well as society as a whole?
The easy answer is: we don’t know. More interestingly, they don’t know either. They have never had to do it.
Image copyrightXINHUAImage captionKim Il-sung is the founder of North Korea and his son Kim Jong-il took over
As Kim Jong-un was being prepared for power, they even began using the term “Paektu Bloodline” to help legitimise his rule. Paektu is the sacred and mythologised mountain where Kim Il-sung is said to have waged guerrilla war and where Kim Jong-il was reportedly born. Kim Jong-un still goes there when he wants to emphasise important policy decisions.
There has always been a Kim at the ideological heart of the country.
What would North Korea be like without such an heir? Kim Jong-un, 36, is believed to have children – but they are far too young. It is thought he has three children, the oldest being 10 and the youngest three. Kim Jong-un himself was considered young when he took power – he was 27.
It is likely that some sort of group leadership would emerge, perhaps as in Vietnam, that leans heavily on the founder’s teachings and legitimacy to boost their own standing.
Observers can track who holds certain key positions and can follow news and open-source intelligence about important institutions, but can’t really tell how factions are developing, nor who is holding power through personal rather than institutional bonds. Moreover, sometimes vice or deputy directors wield more real power than the titular heads of institutions. This makes all predictions extremely difficult.
The three remaining Kims
Image copyrightPATRICK SEMANSKY – POOL /GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yo-jong, as the only woman in the top leadership, has sparked fascination
The are three Kims who could potentially be involved in the political make-up of North Korea if Kim Jong-un were to disappear. They all face limitations in carrying on family rule.
The first is Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un’s younger sister. She is said to have been a favourite of her father who commented on her precocity, her interest in politics from a young age. Her manner is efficient, mild and one suspects rather observant. Much has been made of her closeness to her brother. At the Singapore Trump-Kim summit she was famously on hand to pass him a pen to sign the agreement with, and at the next summit in Hanoi, was pictured peeking out from behind corners as her brother posed for statesman-like photos.
Yet she was not above a temporary demotion after the Hanoi summit – purportedly because of its failure although this will never be confirmed. She doesn’t sit on the top policy-making body, the State Affairs Commission, but is an alternate member of the Politburo and vice director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) of the Workers’ Party of Korea. These may seem like incomprehensible acronyms but the PAD is a powerful organisation that ensures ideological loyalty in the system.
She is a woman, however, and this makes it hard to imagine her occupying the top position in such a deeply patriarchal country. North Korea is an extremely male state, in which gender carries rigid expectations. Being supreme leader, and certainly running the military, does not fit in the range of womanly duties.
The second is Kim Jong-chul. He is Kim Jong-un’s older brother, but has never appeared interested in politics or power. (He is known to be interested in Eric Clapton.) At most, he could be a symbolic link to the Kim family: perhaps made the head of a foundation and put forward to read the odd speech.
The final one is Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il’s half-brother. His mother – Kim Jong-il’s stepmother – was angling to have him become Kim Il-sung’s successor. She failed and was sidelined by Kim Jong-il as he rose in influence. Kim Pyong-il was sent to Europe in 1979, where he has held various ambassadorships, returning to North Korea only last year. This means it is very unlikely he has the network to be a central player in elite politics in Pyongyang.
The second-most powerful man in North Korea right now
Image copyrightALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGESImage captionAs special envoy for Kim Jong-un Choe Ryong-hae (right) has met foreign dignitaries
There are other individuals who have been central in the Kim Jong-un era, but it is difficult to know who among them would form co-operative relationships and who would compete with one another.
One is Choe Ryong-hae. He has had his ups and downs under Kim Jong-un, but having weathered a few storms currently sits on the presidium of the politburo and is also first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission. Last year he became the first new president in 20 years, replacing the aging Kim Yong-nam – so he is the person who represents the North at international engagements.
Choe has also held high positions in the military and the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) of the Worker’s Party of Korea, responsible for enforcing loyalty throughout the regime. This is an extremely powerful organisation: it enforces the adherence of all citizens to North Korea’s ideology. He is probably the second most powerful man in North Korea.
The old spymasters and rising political grandees
Image copyrightOLIVIER DOULIERY-POOL/GETTY IMAGESImage captionKim Yong-chol travelled to Washington DC to meet Donald Trump
Another is Kim Yong-chol. This general paved the way for the Trump-Kim summits, meeting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo several times. He has been head of the United Front Department (responsible for relations with South Korea) and the Reconnaissance General Bureau, the country’s main intelligence service. He seems to have suffered a demotion following the collapse talks with the United States, but it is unlikely this spymaster will remain obscure for long.
Yet another is Kim Jae-ryong. As well as being on the State Affairs Commission, he is Premier of the Cabinet, a moderately influential position. Relatively little is known about him, but his star has risen in the past years as others have fallen. He is known for managing industries and ran the most isolated province, home to key military-industrial sites, for several years. This may mean he has been closely involved in the nuclear program.
Jong Kyong-taek is responsible for the State Security Department, which investigates and punishes political crimes. It also helps physically protect the leadership. These are crucial responsibilities that help enforce stability in the system.
Hwang Pyong-so is another official who has held top military posts and has run the OGD in the Kim Jong-un era. Like Choe (and many others) he has been disciplined; he doesn’t seem to have been rehabilitated in the same way, however. Other 2010s foreign policy stalwarts Ri Yong-ho and Ri Su-yong have also seen roles diminish recently. They have been replaced by Ri Son-gwon and Kim Hyung-jun. The former is said to be an ally of Kim Yong-chol.
The military enforcers
A handful of top generals of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) would also certainly exert influence in any transition period. Currently, two men sit atop the General Political Bureau of the KPA, Kim Su-gil and Kim Won-hong. This bureau enforces political loyalty in the military, something that would be absolutely crucial during periods of uncertainty.
Kim Won-hong, helps illustrate how difficult it is to predict how power would be shared if Kim Jong-un were no longer there. Kim Won-hong and Hwang Pyong-so had been thought to be rivals, competing to influence Kim Jong-un at the other’s expense.
Amongst top elites, who would clash and who would ally? Would there be pro and anti-Kim Yo-jong factions? Would the fear of instability stop rivalries from getting out of hand? After all, it is in no elite politician’s interest to see the state collapse, opening the door for some kind of takeover by South Korea, or even China.
There is currently no perfect contender: his sister would have to overcome the sexism and the break from tradition of a male heir. Anybody else is not directly descended from that all-important Paektu bloodline. but in the end, they will all have to think of the unity of the state they have defied every international norm to preserve.
BEIJING, April 19 (Xinhua) — Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Saturday that at the critical moment when the world is combating the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting the World Health Organization (WHO) and its director-general is to safeguard the philosophy and principle of multilateralism.
He made the remarks when holding a phone conversation with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noting that the support is also an act to secure the United Nations’ status and role and maintain the international solidarity in the face of the disease.
GENEVA (Reuters) – World Health Organization officials on Wednesday denied that the body was “China-centric” and said that the acute phase of a pandemic was not the time to cut funding, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he may put contributions on hold.
The United States is the top donor to the Geneva-based body which Trump said had issued bad advice during the new coronavirus outbreak.
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U.S. contributions to WHO in 2019 exceeded $400 million, almost double the 2nd largest country donor, according to figures from the U.S. State Department. China contributed $44 million, it said.
“We are still in the acute phase of a pandemic so now is not the time to cut back on funding,” Dr Hans Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe, told a virtual briefing when asked about Trump’s remarks.
Trump told a news conference on Tuesday that the United States was “going to put a hold on money spent to the WHO,” however, he appeared to backtrack later when in response to questions he said: “We’re going to look at it.”
It was not immediately clear how Trump could “block” funding for the organization. Under U.S. law, Congress, not the president, decides how federal funds are spent.
Dr Bruce Aylward, senior advisor to the WHO Director-General, also defended the U.N. agency’s relationship with China, saying its work with Beijing authorities was important to understand the outbreak which began in Wuhan in December.
“It was absolutely critical in the early part of this outbreak to have full access to everything possible, to get on the ground and work with the Chinese to understand this,” he told reporters.
“This is what we did with every other hard-hit country like Spain and had nothing to do with China specifically.”
Aylward, who led a WHO expert mission to China in February, defended WHO recommendations to keep borders open, saying that China had worked “very hard” to identify and detect early cases and their contacts and ensure they did not travel.
“China worked very, hard very early on, once it understood what it was dealing with, to try and identify and detect all potential cases to make sure that they got tested to trace all the close contacts and make sure they were quarantined so they actually knew where the virus was, where the risk was,” he said.
“Then they made it very clear that these people would not and could not travel within the country, let alone internationally,” he added.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has been lavish in his praise of China from early in the outbreak, praising President Xi Jinping’s “rare leadership”.
David Heymann, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who led WHO’s response to the 2003 SARS outbreak, said that any U.S. funding cut would be a huge blow.
“If the WHO loses its funding it cannot continue to do its work. It works on a shoe-string budget already,” Heymann said in London. “Of course it would be disastrous for the WHO to lose funding.”
TAIPEI/BEIJING (Reuters) – Taiwan and the United States this week discussed how to get “closer coordination” between the island and the World Health Organization (WHO) during the coronavirus outbreak, drawing a rebuke from China for “political manipulation” of the epidemic.
Taiwan’s is excluded from the WHO due to diplomatic pressure from China, which considers it merely a wayward province with no right to the trappings of state.
Its omission has become a major source of anger for the Taiwan, which says it has been unable to get first hand information from the WHO, putting lives on the island in danger for the sake of politics. Both the WHO and China say Taiwan has been given the help it needs.
The U.S. State Department said on Thursday senior officials from the United States and Taiwan on Tuesday held a “virtual forum on expanding Taiwan’s participation on the global stage”, with particular focus on the WHO and how to share Taiwan’s successful model of fighting the coronavirus.
“Participants also discussed ongoing efforts to reinstate Taiwan’s observer status at the World Health Assembly, as well as other avenues for closer coordination between Taiwan and the World Health Organization,” it said.
The World Health Assembly is the WHO’s decision-making body.
Taiwan attended it as an observer from 2009-2016 when Taipei-Beijing relations warmed, but China blocked further participation after the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, who China views as a separatist, charges she denies.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry expressed thanks to the United States on Friday for its “continued taking of concrete actions to support Taiwan’s participation in the WHO and other international organisations”.
In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the United States and Taiwan were both well aware that members of the WHO must be sovereign states, and accused Taiwan of seeking political capital from the outbreak.
“We hope they will not attempt to use this epidemic to engage in political manipulation,” she told a daily news briefing.
U.S. President Donald Trump signed a new law last month requiring increased support for Taiwan’s international role. China threatened unspecified retaliation in response.
Like most countries the United States has only unofficial ties with the island, but is its strongest backer on the world stage.
Taiwan has been far more successful than many of its neighbours keeping the virus in check thanks to early and stringent steps to control its spread. It has reported 348 cases and five deaths to date.
In its latest measure, Health Minister Chen Shih-chung said on Friday people who don’t wear face masks on public transport would face fines of up to T$15,000 (nearly $500).
‘Aggressive and targeted’ tactics needed to curb spread of Covid-19 as more than 100,000 new infections recorded in just four days
Global political commitment and coordination needed to halt trajectory, agency chief says
A customs officer speaks to passengers on board an inbound flight at Beijing Capital International Airport. Photo: Xinhua
The World Health Organisation has warned that the Covid-19 pandemic is accelerating, calling for “aggressive and targeted tactics” to curb its spread after more than 100,000 new infections were recorded in just four days.
The warning, by the UN agency chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, came as the number of deaths from the disease, caused by the new coronavirus, continued to rise, and as mainland China reported a doubling in new cases.
The outbreak, which was first reported in December in China, is rapidly spreading across the globe. Tedros said it had taken 67 days from the first reported case to the first 100,000 infections, and just 11 days for the number to soar to the second 100,000.
“[It was] just four days for the third 100,000 cases. You can see how the virus is accelerating,” he said on Tuesday.
“But we’re not prisoners to statistics. We’re not helpless bystanders. We can change the trajectory of this pandemic.”
China’s National Health Commission reported 74 imported coronavirus infections on Monday – the highest since March 4, when it began including data on such cases and noted two infections that had originated abroad.
They bring the total number of imported cases on the mainland to 427, as of Monday. The total number of infections there now stands at 81,171, and the death toll has risen to 3,277, with seven new fatalities.
Tedros said political commitment and coordination at the global level were needed to stop the spread, but warned against using untested medicines, saying they could raise false hope.
“To win, we need to attack the virus with aggressive and targeted tactics – testing every suspected case, isolating and caring for every confirmed case, and tracing and quarantining every close contact,” he said.
Italy’s number of new Covid-19 cases dropped to a five-day low on Monday, easing the strain on overstretched hospitals, but the situation in Spain continued to worsen.
Italian health authorities announced 4,789 new cases on Monday, a drop from 5,560 on Sunday and 6,557 on Saturday. Spanish authorities announced 462 deaths on Monday, the country’s worst day since the start of the epidemic.
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The British government said on Monday that another 54 people had died in the previous 24 hours after testing positive for the coronavirus, raising the country’s deaths from the pandemic to 335. The number of confirmed cases in Britain rose to 6,650 on Monday, from 5,683 on Sunday.
Mainland China officials have said the risk facing the nation was to contain imported infections. Among the new imported infections, 31 were recorded in Beijing, 14 in Guangdong and nine in Shanghai.
Beijing has stepped up measures to contain imported infections, diverting all arriving international flights from Monday to other cities, including Shanghai and as far west as Xian, where passengers will undergo virus screening.
Guangzhou also requires all travellers to the city, except for those from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, to undergo the coronavirus test. Beijing has required the test for incoming travellers with symptoms and epidemic history.
The coastal province of Zhejiang, near Shanghai, will also put all arrivals from overseas in centralised quarantine facilities for 14 days, according to media reports.
Image copyright EPAImage caption The world’s second-most populous country has reported about 182 infections
“We have a simple message to all countries – test, test, test,” World Health Organisation (WHO) head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva earlier this week.
He was alluding to the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 10,000 people and infected nearly 250,000 in at least 159 countries.
“All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded,” he said.
With 182 reported infections and four deaths so far, is India taking this advice seriously? Is the world’s second-most populous country testing enough?
The jury is out on this one. India had tested some 14,175 people in 72 state-run labs as of Thursday evening – one of the lowest testing rates in the world. The reason: the country has limited testing. So, only people who have been in touch with an infected person or those who have travelled to high-risk countries, or health workers managing patients with severe respiratory disease and developing Covid-19 symptoms are eligible for testing.
Why is a densely populated country with more than a billion people testing so little? The official assumption is the disease has still not spread in the community. As early “evidence” health authorities say 826 samples collected from patients suffering from acute respiratory disease from 50 government hospitals across India between 1 and 15 March tested negative for coronavirus. Also, hospitals have not yet reported a spike in admissions of respiratory distress cases.
“It is reassuring that at the moment there is no evidence of community outbreak,” says Balram Bhargava, director of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). He believes Mr Ghebreyesus’s advice is “premature” for India, and it would only “create more fear, more paranoia and more hype”.
Media caption Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan: “India’s going to be the next hot spot for this epidemic”
But experts are not so sure.
Many of them believe India is also testing below scale because it fears that its under-resourced and uneven public health system could be swamped by patients. India could be buying time to stock up on testing kits and add isolation and hospital beds. “I know mass testing is not a solution, but our testing appears to be too limited. We need to quickly expand to restrict community transmission,” K Sujatha Rao, former federal health secretary and author of But Do We Care: India’s Health System, told me.
On the other hand, say virologists, random, on-demand testing will create panic and completely strain the feeble public health infrastructure. Increased and targeted “sentinel screening” of patients suffering from influenza and diagnoses in hospitals across the country can provide a better idea of whether there is community transmission, they say. “We need focused testing. We cannot do a China or Korea because we simply don’t have the capacity,” a senior virologist told me.
In many ways, it is all about India trying to battle a pandemic with limited resources. Experts talk about the country’s success in defeating polio, combating small pox, successfully controlling the spread of HIV/Aids, and more recently H1N1 with rigorous surveillance, sharp identification of vulnerable people, targeted intervention, and an early engagement with the private sector to prevent disease spread.
Yet, coronavirus is one of the deadliest transmissible viruses in recent history. Every day lost in effective response means the looming danger of a surge in infections. India spends a paltry 1.28% of its GDP on health care, and that may begin to bite if there’s a full-blown outbreak. Partial lockdowns in many cities – shutting schools, colleges, businesses and suspending some rail transport – proves that the government fears that community transmission of the virus might have begun.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption The official assumption is the disease has still not spread in the community
Bracing for the inevitable, India is scaling up testing. Officials say existing labs are able to provide results in six hours and each lab has the capacity to test 90 samples a day which can be doubled. Fifty more state labs are expected to begin testing samples by the end of the week, bringing the total number of testing facilities to 122. Authorities claim that together, the labs will be able to test 8,000 samples a day – a significant scaling up. In addition, the government is planning to allow around 50 private labs to start testing, but they will take up to 10 days to procure kits. (Testing at state-run labs is free, and it is unclear whether the private labs will charge.)
Two rapid testing labs, capable of doing 400 tests a day, are expected to be operational by the end of the week. India has also placed orders for a million test kits, and will be possibly asking the WHO for a million more.
“On testing, the government response has been proportionate, taking into account scope, need and capacity,” Henk Bekedam, WHO Representative to India told me. “We recognise that laboratory networks are expanding the scope and testing and they now include patients with severe acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness detected through the surveillance system. It would also be important to look at ‘atypical pneumonia’ cases. If they are without any distinctive cause, then they need to be considered for testing.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India could be buying time to stock up on testing kits and add isolation and hospital beds
The weeks and months ahead will show whether these steps have been enough. “We cannot say India has escaped community transmission,” Mr Bhargava says candidly. And if and when there is an explosion of infections and more sick people require hospitalisation, India will face formidable challenges.
India has eight doctors per 10,000 people compared to 41 in Italy and 71 in Korea. It has one state-run hospital for more than 55,000 people. (Private hospitals are out of reach for most people). The country has a poor culture of testing, and most people with flu symptoms do not go to doctors and instead try home remedies or go to pharmacies. There’s a scarcity of isolation beds, trained nursing staff and medics, and ventilators and intensive care beds.
India’s influenza cases peak during the monsoon season, and there is no reason why the coronavirus will not make a second coming, virologists say. “Given the way it is progressing in India, it seems it is about two weeks behind Spain and three weeks behind Italy. But that’s the number of known cases. And without sufficient testing and shutting down large gatherings, the numbers could be a lot worse,” Shruti Rajagopalan, economist and a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, told me.
India’s traditional neglect of public healthcare will begin to bite if the disease spreads to its teeming small towns and villages. “This is a very unique and real public health challenge,” says Ms Rao. And it’s early days yet.
BEIJING (Reuters) – The global coronavirus pandemic could be over by June if countries mobilize to fight it, a senior Chinese medical adviser said on Thursday, as China declared the peak had passed there and new cases in Hubei fell to single digits for the first time.
Around two-thirds of global cases of the coronavirus have been recorded in China’s central Hubei province, where the virus first emerged in December. But in recent weeks the vast majority of new cases have been outside China.
Chinese authorities credit strict measures they have taken, including placing Hubei under near total lockdown, with preventing big outbreaks in other cities, and say other countries should learn from their efforts.
“Broadly speaking, the peak of the epidemic has passed for China,” said Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission. “The increase of new cases is falling.”
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Zhong Nanshan, the government’s senior medical adviser, told reporters that as long as countries take the outbreak seriously and are prepared to take firm measures, it could be over worldwide in a matter of months.
“My advice is calling for all countries to follow WHO instructions and intervene on a national scale,” he said. “If all countries could get mobilized, it could be over by June.”
Speaking to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, President Xi Jinping similarly expressed confidence, state television reported.
“After hard work, China has shown a trend of continuous improvement in epidemic prevention and control,” the report cited Xi as saying.
“I am confident that the Chinese people will be able to overcome this epidemic and achieve their intended economic and social development goals.”
Zhong, an 83-year-old epidemiologist renowned for helping combat the SARS outbreak in 2003, said viruses in the same family typically became less active in warm months.
“My estimate of June is based on scenarios that all countries take positive measures.”
Later on Thursday, Zhong held a teleconference with a group of U.S. medical experts, including from Harvard University, state television reported.
Zhong and his team shared their experiences of quickly testing and containing the virus, difficulties in treatment, and cooperation in clinical research, the report added.
The United States is now facing its own virus crisis as the number of infected people rises.
BUSINESSES REOPEN
With the marked slowdown of the spread of the virus in China, more businesses have reopened, with authorities cautiously easing strict containment measures.
Hubei province announced a further loosening of travel restrictions and will also allow some industries to resume production.
Hubei’s economy, driven by manufacturing and trade, including a sizable auto sector in the provincial capital, Wuhan, had been virtually shut down since Jan. 23.
While the virus is spreading quickly globally, its progress in China has slowed markedly in the past seven days. In all, 15 new cases were recorded in mainland China on Wednesday, down from 24 the day before. Seven of the new cases were outside Hubei, including six imported from abroad.
While only 85 of the cases in China have come from abroad, the rising number of such incidences has prompted authorities to shift their focus on containing the risk of imported cases.
The total number of cases recorded in mainland China was 80,793. As of Tuesday, 62,793 people had recovered and been discharged from hospital, or nearly 80% of the infections.
In Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, 34,094 patients had been discharged from hospitals, but over half were still under observation at so-called “recovery stops” – quarantine venues repurposed from hotels and student dormitories.
Hubei’s health authority said the post-discharge quarantine was a precautionary measure, after a few discharged patients tested positive again.
As of the end of Wednesday, the death toll in mainland China had reached 3,169, up by 11 from the previous day. Hubei accounted for 10 of the new deaths, including seven in Wuhan.
China is focusing on restarting factories and businesses hit by the containment policies. Factory activity plunged to its worst level on record in February, and while more businesses have reopened in recent weeks as containment measures have been eased, analysts do not expect activity to return to normal until April.
Airlines have been hit particularly hard. China’s airlines reported total losses of 20.96 billion yuan ($3 billion) in February. The total number of airline passengers fell 84.5% year-on-year last month, China’s aviation regulator said.
CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 
China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier returns home from a month of training
China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, returned to its home port of Qingdao on Thursday after nearly a month of training on the high seas, the People’s Liberation Army said.
According to military analysts, the warship was joined by at least five escort vessels, and the drills showed its crew had not been affected by the coronavirus pandemic and that it remained combat-ready.
The annual cross-region drills included intensive and complicated air and sea operations, the official PLA Daily said in a post on social media on Friday.
“The drills have further improved the real combat training level of the Liaoning carrier strike group, putting its systematic combat capability to the test,” the statement on WeChat said, without giving other details.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said it was important for the carrier to get back to training activities.
“The recent training by the Liaoning carrier strike group is very significant because it’s evidence that none of the 2,000 sailors and commanders on the ship have been hit by Covid-19, and neither have any of the other soldiers and personnel on the other warships and support units,” Li said.
The coronavirus situation has eased in China, where the first cases were reported late last year, but it continues to spread across the globe and has infected more than 3.2 million people worldwide and killed over 233,000.
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The virus has also hit crew members on at least 40 US Navy warships, and Li said that left China with the only operational aircraft carrier in the region.
“Since the four American aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific region have all been struck by the pandemic, China is the only country that can operate an aircraft carrier in the area,” he said.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said the Liaoning was escorted by two destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship, and they had passed through the Bashi Channel, a waterway to the south of Taiwan, and headed towards waters east of Taiwan.
As tensions continue to simmer between Taipei and Beijing, the PLA has stepped up activities around the island, which the mainland sees as part of its territory awaiting reunification.
Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said the latest naval drills were also aimed at heaping more pressure on Taiwan’s pro-independence forces as well as foreign countries seeking to intervene in cross-strait issues.
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“Taiwan’s pro-independence forces have become more active and are attempting to take advantage amid the pandemic,” said Song, a military commentator with Phoenix Television.
“The Liaoning would play a major role in the PLA’s plan to unify Taiwan by force, so it’s necessary for the aircraft carrier strike group to get back to operations, step up training and send a warning to Taipei,” he added.
Lu Li-Shih, a former instructor at the naval academy in Taiwan, noted that the PLA Navy had regularly held drills in the waters east of Taiwan in recent years to avoid surveillance by US satellites.
Source: SCMP
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