Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
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Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Within a week of reopening, India has seen a sharp spike in cases
India is roaring – rather than inching – back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC’s Aparna Alluri finds out why.
On Saturday, India’s government announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.
This was expected – the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hotels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.
But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone – the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Fast food chains like McDonald’s have begun reopening outlets in parts of India.
So, why the rush to reopen?
The lockdown is simply unaffordable
“It’s certainly time to lift the lockdown,” says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.
“Beyond a point, it’s hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long – economically, socially and psychologically.”
From day one, India’s lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business – from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India’s growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.
Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be “devastating”.
The opinion is shared by global consultant Mckinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India’s economy must be “managed alongside persistent infection risks”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption As restrictions ease, Indians are slowly getting used to the new normal
“The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and systems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes],” says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. “That objective, to a large extent, has been met.”
In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of protective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the government has bought as much time as possible.
“We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy,” Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.
The silver lining
For weeks, India’s relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates explain the former, but not the latter.
In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown – millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.
Perhaps the choice – between a virus that didn’t appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was – seemed obvious to the government.
But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. “I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms,” Dr Devadasan says.
The hope – which is also encouraging the government to reopen – is that most of India’s undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.
The government, for instance, has been touting India’s mortality rate as a silver lining – at nearly 3%, it’s among the lowest in the world.
But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn’t have, a robust system for recording deaths – in his view, the government is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Indians are venturing out again but it’s unclear how many of them are asymptomatic.
And, he says, “what we must aim for is flattening the mortality curve, not necessarily the epidemic curve”.
Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the “government realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns”.
A shift in strategy
So is the government gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?
While Dr Menon believes the lockdown was well-timed, he says it was too focused on cases coming from abroad.
“There was a hope that by controlling that, we could prevent epidemic spread, but how effective was our screening [at airports]?”
Now, he adds, is the time for “localised lockdowns”.
Media caption Coronavirus: Death and despair for migrants on Indian roads
The federal government has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the virus’ progression varies wildly across India.
Maharashtra alone accounts for more than a third of India’s active cases. Add Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi, and that makes up 67% of the national total.
But other states – such as Bihar – are already seeing a sharp uptick as migrant workers return home.
“Initially, most of your cases were in the cities,” Dr Devadasan says. “But we kept the migrant workers in cities and didn’t allow them to go home. Now, we are sending them back. We have facilitated transporting the virus from urban areas to rural areas.”
While the government has said how many infections have been avoided – up to 300,000 – and lives saved – up to 71,000 – by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.
There is only advice: The day the government began to ease restrictions, Mr Kejriwal tweeted, urging people to “follow discipline and control the coronavirus disease” as it was their “responsibility”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Social distancing will prove to be India’s biggest post-lockdown challenge
Because the alternative – of curfews and constant policing – is unsustainable.
“My worry is more the circumstances of people – it’s not as though they have an option to practise social distancing,” Dr Menon says.
And they don’t – not in joint family homes or one-room hovels packed together in slums, not in crowded markets or busy streets where jostling is second nature, or in temples, mosques, weddings or religious processions where more is always merrier.
The overwhelming message is that the virus is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it – and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.
Tsai Ing-wen visited exiled Hong Kong bookseller a day after NPC voted in favour of legislation
Lam Wing-kee said fleeing Hongkongers saw Taiwan as a step towards applying for asylum in the West
President Tsai Ing-wen (centre) shows her support for Hong Kong bookseller Lam Wing-kee (right) with Lin Fei-fan, deputy secretary general of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Photo: Taiwan presidential office/AFP
Her visit came a day after China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress, voted in favour of a resolution to initiate the legal process for a national security law to be imposed on Hong Kong, despite concerns from the United States, the European Union and elsewhere that the move would erode human rights, freedom and autonomy in the city.
Tsai said on behalf of all Taiwanese people, she welcomed Lam to stay in Taiwan where he could bolster the island’s efforts to further freedom and democracy.
Hongkongers who want to flee to Taiwan ‘will go through strict screening’
28 May 2020
Lam, one of the five shareholders and staff at Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay Books, fled to Taiwan in April last year after he was detained by Chinese agents for eight months in 2015 for selling books critical of the Chinese leadership.
between October and December that year and it emerged they had been detained on the Chinese mainland.
President Tsai Ing-wen looks at a book while visiting Lam Wing-kee on Friday. Photo: Taiwan presidential office/AFP
Lam later said he had been detained and blindfolded by police after crossing the border into mainland China from Hong Kong in October 2015.
The case triggered a huge controversy and raised fears of growing Chinese control in the city.
Seeing Lam as a representative of Hongkongers fleeing to Taiwan to avoid political persecution, Tsai said she wanted to understand what challenges these exiles faced and what help they needed during their stay on the self-ruled island.
“I want to tell Boss Lam [Wing-kee] and our Hong Kong friends that the government here has set up an ad hoc committee to offer help to them very soon,” she said.
On Wednesday, Tsai called for the government to set up an ad hoc committee to work out a “humanitarian help action plan” for Hong Kong people seeking to live in Taiwan or immigrate to the island. It was borne out of concern they would be arrested or prosecuted for taking part in months of anti-government protests triggered last year by the now-shelved extradition bill.
Chen Ming-tong, head of the Mainland Affairs Council, the island’s top mainland policy planner, said on Thursday his council would draft the measures for cabinet’s approval in a week.
Under the plan, the Mainland Affairs Council would issue special measures and coordinate with the island’s authorities on how to help Hongkongers relocate to Taiwan and take care of them.
Bookseller Lam told Tsai what Hongkongers needed most was to have their stay in Taiwan extended.
Lam said that currently, because of the absence of a political asylum law, Hongkongers could only apply to live in Taiwan through study, work, investment, their professional skills or close relatives.
He said fleeing Hongkongers usually came to Taiwan on tourist permits, which at most allowed them to stay for up to six months, giving them not enough time to apply for long-term residence in Taiwan.
“It would be better if they can stay for nine months and preferably one year,” he said.
Lam said some fleeing Hongkongers saw Taiwan as an intermediary base as they hoped to apply for asylum in the West, but it took a long time for Western countries to screen and approve their asylum requests.
Meanwhile, Premier Su Tseng-chang said Article 18 of the Laws and Regulations Regarding Hong Kong and Macau Affairs was good enough to deal with the current crisis in the absence of a political asylum law in Taiwan.
That article states that “necessary help shall be provided to Hong Kong or Macau residents whose safety and liberty are immediately threatened for political reasons”.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption International students are uncertain of the future in the wake of Covid-19
Two years ago, 29-year-old Raunaq Singh started working towards his dream of pursuing an MBA from one of the world’s top business schools.
In January 2020, he was waitlisted by UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business in California, and was asked to send more information to bolster his case for admission.
“So, I quit my stable job of five years and started working with a mental wellness start-up as a consultant,” Mr Singh says.
“I’m on a major pay cut because the purpose of joining this company wasn’t to earn money, but to add value to my application.”
Fortunately, he was accepted at Berkeley, and was due to start his course in September.
But then the world changed as Covid-19 spread, plunging the immediate future into uncertainty.
Mr Singh is one of hundreds of thousands of Indian students who were planning to study abroad. But now they are not quite sure what will happen given international travel restrictions, new social distancing norms and the sheer uncertainty of what the next few months will bring.
Image copyright MEEHIKA BARUAImage caption Ms Barua is one of the hundreds of thousands of Indians who wants to study abroad
Every year, in June and July, students flood visa centres and consulates to start the paperwork to travel and study abroad. But things look different this year.
“There’s a lot of stress and anxiety and tension at this time but not enough clarity,” says Meehika Barua, 23, who wants to study journalism in the UK.
“We don’t know when international travel restrictions will be lifted or whether we’d be able to get our visas in time. We may also have to take classes online.”
Some universities across the UK and the US are giving international students the option to defer their courses to the next semester or year, while others have mandated online classes until the situation improves.
The University of Cambridge recently announced that lectures will be online only until next year. Others, like Greenwich University, will have a mix of online and face-to-face approaches while its international students can defer to the next semester.
“It feels a little unfair, especially after spending a year-and-half to get admission in one of these schools,” Mr Singh says. “Now, a part of the experience is compromised.”
Like him, many others are disappointed at the prospect of virtual classes.
Image copyright PA MEDIAImage caption Cambridge University has announced that all lectures will be online
“The main reason we apply to these universities is to be able to get the experience of studying on campus or because we want to work in these countries. We want to absorb the culture there,” Ms Barua says.
Studying abroad is also expensive. Many US and UK universities charge international students a higher fee. And then there’s the additional cost of applications or standardised tests.
Virtual classes mean they don’t have to pay for a visa, air tickets or living expenses. But many students are hesitant about spending their savings or borrowing money to pay for attending college in their living room.
Even if, months later, the situation improves to some extent, and students could travel abroad and enrol on campus, they say that brings its own challenges.
For one, Mr Singh points out, there is the steep cost of healthcare, and questions over access to it, as countries like the US are experiencing a deluge of infections and deaths.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Students are also unsure of finding jobs overseas after graduation
And then there are the dimming job prospects. The pandemic has squeezed the global economy, so employers are less likely to hire, or sponsor visas for foreign workers.
“For international students, the roller coaster has been more intense because there is increased uncertainty about their ability to get jobs in the US after graduation, and for some, in their ability to get to the US at all,” says Taya Carothers, who works in Northwestern University’s international student office.
The idea of returning to India with an expensive degree and the looming unemployment is scaring students – especially since for many of them, the decision to study abroad is tied to a desire to find a well-paying job there.
“The risk we take when we leave our home country and move to another country – that risk has increased manifold,” Mr Singh adds.
The current crisis – and its economic impact – has affected the decision of nearly half the Indians who wanted to study abroad, according to a recent report by the QS, a global education network.
And logistics will also pose a challenge – colleges have to enforce social distancing across campuses, including dormitories, and accommodate students from multiple time zones in virtual classes.
“Regardless of how good your technology is, you’re still going to face problems like internet issues,” says Sadiq Basha, who heads a study abroad consultancy.
He adds that there might be a knee-jerk reaction as a large number of international students consider deferring their admission to 2021. But he’s positive that “in the long term, the ambitions of Indian students are not going to go down.”
Mr Singh is still waiting to see how things will unfold in the next few months, but he’s almost certain he will enrol and start his first semester of the two-year program online.
“Since I’ve been preparing for over a year now, I think mentally I’m already there,” he says.
WINDHOEK, May 1 (Xinhua) — China’s poverty eradication policy and deliberate attempts to improve the lives of the rural population is a model for Namibia and Africa in general to follow in dealing with inequality in society, experts have said.
University of Namibia social and political analyst Ndumbah Kwamwayah said China has laid a strong foundation in dealing with poverty and emancipating its people since the days of Mao Zedong.
“Chinese literature especially the life journey of Chairman Mao is a good benchmark for developing countries that want to find ways of creating equal societies. If you check here in Namibia inequality and rural poverty are there despite our economy being agro-based.
“We need to take a cue from countries like China who have created better societies through improving agriculture production and mechanization through investing heavily in local people,” he said.
According to Kamwayah, China continues to value its agro-based economy as well as investment in rural development.
“China through its leaders in the past and present has come up with strong policies of decentralizing key services and also curbing rural urban drift through developing villages. Chinese literature also strongly captures the aspect of local development.
“In Namibia there are many regions including the Kunene, Zambezi and Kavango which are heavily affected by poverty. These need deliberate policies to be improved,” he said.
Political analyst from University of Namibia, Hoze Riruako said poverty eradication remains one of the biggest challenges confronting Namibia in contemporary times.
“What is more important is not to reproduce the Chinese way of doing things but to pick certain traits that can dent poverty and rural development from them,” he said.
The richest man in China opened his own Twitter account last month, in the middle of the Covid-19 outbreak. So far, every one of his posts has been devoted to his unrivalled campaign to deliver medical supplies to almost every country around the world.
“One world, one fight!” Jack Ma enthused in one of his first messages. “Together, we can do this!” he cheered in another.
The billionaire entrepreneur is the driving force behind a widespread operation to ship medical supplies to more than 150 countries so far, sending face masks and ventilators to many places that have been elbowed out of the global brawl over life-saving equipment.
But Ma’s critics and even some of his supporters aren’t sure what he’s getting himself into. Has this bold venture into global philanthropy unveiled him as the friendly face of China’s Communist Party? Or is he an independent player who is being used by the Party for propaganda purposes? He appears to be following China’s diplomatic rules, particularly when choosing which countries should benefit from his donations, but his growing clout might put him in the crosshairs of the jealous leaders at the top of China’s political pyramid.
Other tech billionaires have pledged more money to fight the effects of the virus – Twitter’s Jack Dorsey is giving $1bn (£0.8bn) to the cause. Candid, a US-based philanthropy watchdog that tracks private charitable donations, puts Alibaba 12th on a list of private Covid-19 donors. But that list doesn’t include shipments of vital supplies, which some countries might consider to be more important than money at this stage in the global outbreak.
The world’s top coronavirus financial donors
How Alibaba compares to the top five. No one else other than the effervescent Ma is capable of dispatching supplies directly to those who need them. Starting in March, the Jack Ma foundation and the related Alibaba foundation began airlifting supplies to Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and even to politically sensitive areas including Iran, Israel, Russia and the US.
Ma has also donated millions to coronavirus vaccine research and a handbook of medical expertise from doctors in his native Zhejiang province has been translated from Chinese into 16 languages. But it’s the medical shipments that have been making headlines, setting Ma apart.
“He has the ability and the money and the lifting power to get a Chinese supply plane out of Hangzhou to land in Addis Ababa, or wherever it needs to go,” explains Ma’s biographer, Duncan Clark. “This is logistics; this is what his company, his people and his province are all about.”
A friendly face
Jack Ma is famous for being the charismatic English teacher who went on to create China’s biggest technology company. Alibaba is now known as the “Amazon of the East”. Ma started the company inside his tiny apartment in the Chinese coastal city of Hangzhou, in the centre of China’s factory belt, back in 1999. Alibaba has since grown to become one of the dominant players in the world’s second largest economy, with key stakes in China’s online, banking and entertainment worlds. Ma himself is worth more than $40bn.
Officially, he stepped down as Alibaba’s chairman in 2018. He said he was going to focus on philanthropy. But Ma retained a permanent seat on Alibaba’s board. Coupled with his wealth and fame, he remains one of the most powerful men in China.
Media caption The BBC’s Secunder Kermani and Anne Soy compare how prepared Asian and African countries are
It appears that Ma’s donations are following Party guidelines: there is no evidence that any of the Jack Ma and Alibaba Foundation donations have gone to countries that have formal ties with Taiwan, China’s neighbour and diplomatic rival. Ma announced on Twitter that he was donating to 22 countries in Latin America. States that side with Taiwan but who have also called for medical supplies – from Honduras to Haiti – are among the few dozen countries that do not appear to be on the list of 150 countries. The foundations repeatedly refused to provide a detailed list of countries that have received donations, explaining that “at this moment in time, we are not sharing this level of detail”.
However, the donations that have been delivered have certainly generated a lot of goodwill. With the exception of problematic deliveries to Cuba and Eritrea, all of the foundations’ shipments dispatched from China appear to have been gratefully received. That success is giving Ma even more positive attention than usual. China’s state media has been mentioning Ma almost as often as the country’s autocratic leader, Xi Jinping.
AFP
So far…
Over 150 countries have received donations from Jack Ma, including about:
120.4mface masks
4,105,000testing kits
3,704ventilators
Source: Alizila
It’s an uncomfortable comparison. As Ma soaks up praise, Xi faces persistent questions about how he handled the early stages of the virus and where, exactly, the outbreak began.
The Chinese government has dispatched medical teams and donations of supplies to a large number of hard-hit countries, particularly in Europe and South-East Asia.
However, those efforts have sometimes fallen flat. China’s been accused of sending faulty supplies to several countries. In some cases, the tests it sent were being misused but in others, low-quality supplies went unused and the donations backfired.
In contrast, Jack Ma’s shipments have only boosted his reputation.
“It’s fair to say that Ma’s donation was universally celebrated across Africa,” says Eric Olander, managing editor of the China Africa Project website and podcast. Ma pledged to visit all countries in Africa and has been a frequent visitor since his retirement.
“What happens to the materials once they land in a country is up to the host government, so any complaints about how Nigeria’s materials were distributed are indeed a domestic Nigerian issue,” Olander adds. “But with respect to the donation itself, the Rwandan leader, Paul Kagame, called it a “shot in the arm” and pretty much everyone saw it for what it was which was: delivering badly-needed materials to a region of the world that nobody else is either willing or capable of helping at that scale.”
Walking the tightrope
But is Ma risking a backlash from Beijing? Xi Jinping isn’t known as someone who likes to share the spotlight and his government has certainly targeted famous faces before. In recent years, the country’s top actress, a celebrated news anchor and several other billionaire entrepreneurs have all “disappeared” for long periods. Some, including the news anchor, end up serving prison sentences. Others re-emerge from detention, chastened and pledging their allegiance to the Party.
“There’s a rumour that [Jack Ma] stepped down in 2018 from being the chairman of the Alibaba Group because he was seen as a homegrown entrepreneur whose popularity would eclipse that of the Communist Party,” explains Ashley Feng, research associate at the Centre for New American Security in Washington DC. Indeed, Ma surprised many when he suddenly announced his retirement in 2018. He has denied persistent rumours that Beijing forced him out of his position.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Ma discussed trade with then-President-elect Donald Trump in January 2017
Duncan Clark, Ma’s biographer, is also aware of reports that Ma was nudged away from Alibaba following a key incident in January 2017. The Chinese billionaire met with then-President-elect Donald Trump in Trump Tower, ostensibly to discuss Sino-US trade. The Chinese president didn’t meet with Trump until months later.
“There was a lot of speculation of time that Jack Ma had moved too fast,” Clark says. “So, I think there’s lessons learned from both sides on the need to try to coordinate.”
“Jack Ma represents a sort of entrepreneurial soft power,” Clark adds. “That also creates challenges though, because the government is quite jealous or nervous of non-Party actors taking that kind of role.”
Technically, Ma isn’t a Communist outsider: China’s wealthiest capitalist has actually been a member of the Communist Party since the 1980s, when he was a university student.
But Ma’s always had a tricky relationship with the Party, famously saying that Alibaba’s attitude towards the Party was to “be in love with it but not to marry it”.
Even if Ma and the foundations connected to him are making decisions without Beijing’s advance blessing, the Chinese government has certainly done what it can to capitalise on Ma’s generosity. Chinese ambassadors are frequently on hand at airport ceremonies to receive the medical supplies shipped over by Ma, from Sierra Leone to Cambodia.
China has also used Ma’s largesse in its critiques of the United States. “The State Department said Taiwan is a true friend as it donated 2 million masks,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry tweeted in early April. “Wonder if @StateDept has any comment on Jack Ma’s donation of 1 million masks and 500k testing kits as well as Chinese companies’ and provinces’ assistance?”
Perhaps Ma can rise above what’s happened to so many others who ran afoul of the Party. China might just need a popular global Chinese figure so much that Ma has done what no one else can: make himself indispensable.
“Here’s the one key takeaway from all that happened with Jack Ma and Africa: he said he would do something and it got done,” explains Eric Olander. “That is an incredibly powerful optic in a place where foreigners often come, make big promises and often fail to deliver. So, the huge Covid-19 donation that he did fit within that pattern. He said he would do it and mere weeks later, those masks were in the hands of healthcare workers.”
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Ma at an Electronic World Trade Platform event with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed last year
Duncan Clark argues that Ma already had a seat at China’s high table because of Alibaba’s economic heft. However, his first-name familiarity with world leaders makes him even more valuable to Beijing as China tries to repair its battered image.
“He has demonstrated the ability, with multiple IPOs under his belt, and multiple friendships overseas, to win friends and influence people. He’s the Dale Carnegie of China and that certainly, we’ve seen that that’s irritated some in the Chinese government but now it’s almost an all hands on deck situation,” Clark says.
There’s no doubt that China’s wider reputation is benefiting from the charitable work of Ma and other wealthy Chinese entrepreneurs. Andrew Grabois from Candid, the philanthropic watchdog that’s been measuring global donations in relation to Covid-19, says that the private donations coming from China are impossible to ignore.
“They’re taking a leadership role, the kind of thing that used to be done by the United States,” he says. “The most obvious past example is the response to Ebola, the Ebola outbreak in 2014. The US sent in doctors and everything to West Africa to help contain that virus before it left West Africa.”
Chinese donors are taking on that role with this virus.
“They are projecting soft power beyond their borders, going into areas, providing aid, monetary aid and expertise,” Grabois adds.
So, it’s not the right time for Beijing to stand in Jack Ma’s way.
“You know, this is a major crisis for the world right now,” Duncan Clark concludes. “But obviously, it’s also a crisis for China’s relationship with the rest of the world. So they need anybody who can help dampen down some of these those pressures.”
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expects to import more soybeans and pork this year following the novel coronavirus outbreak and African swine fever, which has decimated its pig herds.
Soybean imports are forecast at 92.48 million tonnes this year, rising to 96.62 million tonnes in 2025 and 99.52 million tonnes in 2029, an official from the agriculture ministry told a video conference on the outlook for agriculture released on Monday.
Pork imports this year are seen rising to 2.8 million tonnes, a 32.7% increase from the previous year.
China is a key buyer and consumer of soybeans and pork globally, and typically imports millions of tonnes of soybeans per year to crush for meal to feed its livestock.
The African swine fever outbreak, however, had slashed China’s pig herd by over 40% last year, reducing supplies in the world’s biggest pork consumer.
Combined with the coronavirus outbreak, which hit the transport of pigs and delayed the restart of slaughtering plants, prices of China’s favourite meat rose to record levels in February.
China has been increasing pork imports in recent months to make up for the drop in domestic supply.
Despite the expected surge in imports, China’s 2020 pork consumption is forecast to fall to 42.06 million tonnes, down 5.6% year-on-year, hit by high prices and a fall in consumer demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to the agriculture ministry.
In line with the slowing consumption, China’s slaughtered pig herd this year will fall 7.8% year-on-year to 501.49 million heads. Pork output this year will also decline to 39.34 million tonnes from 2019, but will rebound to around 54 million tonnes in 2022.
In the longer term, however, pork imports are expected to gradually fall, the ministry forecast, while beef and mutton imports are set to increase in the next decade.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic soybean output is seen at 18.81 million tonnes in 2020, a 3.9% gain from the previous year, while crushing volumes were pegged at 85.98 million tonnes.
Soybean consumption will increase steadily and continue to rely mainly on imports in the next 10 years, said a ministry official.
The ministry also said China’s corn acreage and output are both set to increase in 2020, with production forecast to reach over 260 million tonnes this year, while annual rice output is expected to hold steady above 200 million tonnes per year in the next 10 years.
BEIJING (Reuters) – China will promote the sales of export products in domestic markets, as foreign trade faces unprecedented challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, an assistant commerce minister said on Friday.
As the coronavirus spreads to almost all of China’s trading partners, the world’s second-largest economy is set to reach a grim milestone for full year growth, with the pace of expansion likely to be the slowest since the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976. And, the export sector is facing millions of job losses and factory shutdowns.
“Due to the rapid spread of the epidemic in the world, foreign demand has slumped and the biggest difficulty facing foreign trade companies is the plunge in orders,” said Ren Hongbin, the assistant minister at the Ministry of Commerce.
He said firms across the board have had their orders cancelled or delayed, and new orders are “very hard to sign”.
“The uncertainty about the pandemic has become the biggest uncertainty for foreign trade development.”
Forecasters expect China’s 2020 growth could be nearer the 2.0% mark – the slowest in over 40 years – due to the sweeping impact of the pandemic both at home and overseas. The economy grew 6.1% last year.
China’s overseas shipments fell 17.2% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, marking the steepest fall since February 2019. Imports sank 4% from a year earlier.
Among the government measures to support the sector, China is accelerating efforts to build online trade fairs and guiding exporters to work with e-commerce retailers for sales in domestic markets and coordinating with its trading partners to stabilise supply chains, said Ren.
The Canton Fair, China’s oldest and biggest trade fair due to take place online, will feature live-streaming services for participants, Li Xingqian, another commerce ministry official, told the same briefing. The fair was originally scheduled to begin on April 15, but was postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak.
China is willing to boost trade relations with other countries, including the United States, under the new circumstances, said Ren, adding that Beijing hopes to work together with Washington to promote bilateral trade.
Both countries have been engaged in a near two-year long trade war with tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s goods, before negotiators called a truce with an interim trade deal in January.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption India’s armed forces began inducting women officers in 1992
Last month, India’s Supreme Court appeared to nudge the government to consider lifting the military’s official ban on women in combat roles – and to give them commanding roles.
“Test them on [the] same footing as men. Do not exclude them [women officers] as a class. [A] change of mindset is required,” the court said.
Earlier this week, the government responded. Its lawyers told the top court that women were not fit to serve in ground combat roles. For one, male soldiers are not “yet mentally schooled to accept women officers in command”. Then there were the “challenges of confinement, motherhood and childcare”.
This, according to military historian Srinath Raghavan, is an “extraordinary and regressive” claim, reminiscent of the claims of colonial rulers that Indian soldiers would never accept Indian commanders. “Military training is about fundamentally reshaping norms and attitudes that soldiers bring from their social backgrounds,” he says.
India’s armed forces began inducting women officers in 1992. Over the decades, they have been given combat roles in the air force. Women have been inducted as fighter pilots and have flown sorties into combat zones; they will be inducted as sailors as soon as ships that can accommodate them are ready. Last year, a 24-year-old became the navy’s first woman maritime reconnaissance pilot.
The army is a striking exception. Women have worked here as doctors, nurses, engineers, signallers, administrators and lawyers. They have treated soldiers on battlefields, handled explosives, detected and removed mines, and laid communication lines. Women officers have also been given permanent commission – a 20-year service, depending on eligibility and rank. Last year, women were cleared to join the military police.
Image copyright GETTY IMAGESImage caption Namrita Chandi Naidu is a senior woman pilot in India’s air force
So they have ended up doing almost everything except combat roles: women are still not allowed to serve in infantry and the armoured corps. According to 2019 figures, women comprise only 3.8% of the world’s second-largest army – compared to 13% of the air force and 6% of the navy. There are some 1,500 female officers compared to more than 40,000 male officers.
All this, says Akanksha Khullar, a researcher at Delhi’s Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, cannot really be considered a “milestone for women empowerment, as the doors have opened up with an extremely limited capacity”. India’s national security narrative, she told me, is “shaped, limited, and permeated by ideas about gender – with an overt masculine predominance and the structural exclusion of women”.
Media caption The all-women crew from the Indian navy that is sailing around the world
She says the gender disparities are “well reflected in institutional attitudes right at the top” and that “patriarchal notions are probably more ingrained in the army” than the other forces.
She’s correct. In 2018, former army chief and the current Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat told a news network that there weren’t any women soldiers serving in front line combat positions because “a woman would feel uncomfortable at the front line”.
He said maternity leave was an issue, women need more privacy and protection, and that India was not yet ready to accept “body bags of women” killed in combat. He also said that women need to be “cocooned” from the eyes of subordinate soldiers. Mr Rawat’s comments had sparked considerable outrage.
Image copyright AFPImage caption A contingent of women belonging to the Indian navy march during a parade in Delhi
Around the world, getting women into combat roles has been a hard won battle. More than a dozen nations allow women in combat roles.
“While some can argue that women, in general, may not be able to cope with the rigour of combat due to the sheer physical strength required, why deny the opportunity to those who can? In my view, the right of a woman to serve in any role in the armed forces must be equal to a man’s as long as the physical and qualitative standards are not compromised,” says HS Panag, a retired Indian general.
In other words, patriarchy should not come in the way of equality and common sense.
Developers say their prototype craft could dive to 1,000 metres in five minutes
Liu Kaizhou, who also worked the Jiaolong submersible, says ‘We are in uncharted water’
Professor Liu Kaizhou, who developed the autopilot for China’s manned Jiaolong submersible, says his team has designed a vessel that can move through water like a plane moves through the air. Photo: Xinhua
Chinese engineers say they are developing a radical design for a super-fast robot submersible which the project leader, who worked on the manned deep-sea vessel Jiaolong, or Sea Dragon, claims can “fly” in water like a plane travels through the air.
At 3 metres (9.8ft) long, the prototype consists of a cigar-shaped body, with a guidance system in the bow and a jet plane style rudder and a propeller in the stern.
Outriggers house batteries and two more propellers. These are attached to the body by wing-like planes that the developers said will give the vessel the kind of lift in water that takes an aeroplane into the air and back to the earth.
Developers said the prototype will be capable of 10 knots and could dive to a depth of 1,000 metres (3,281 feet) – or surface from that depth – at about three metres a second, taking about 5½ minutes.
Professor Liu Kaizhou, lead scientist of the project at the Shenyang Institute of Automation, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Liaoning province, said the design had great potential.
If a traditional submarine was like an air balloon, he said, the prototype was like an aircraft. “It is technically flying, fast and freely, like a plane for the water.”
The prototype has 20 major components on board, including a computer, and communications and surveillance equipment. These were all developed and tested by the team, but getting them to work together posed some unexpected challenges, Liu said, meaning the transition to operations in a tough marine environment was some time away.
Underwater station could be a game changer, Chinese scientist says
“We aim to make the first open sea test in about a year,” he said.
The submersible can be powered by conventional batteries or a chemical engine that mixes lithium and sulphur hexafluoride to produce heated steam for electrical generators – an energy source often used by torpedoes.
Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology from 2017, the project was driven by China’s growing ambition to become a superpower in the world’s oceans.
The team said their submersible had the potential to become the backbone of China’s search-and-rescue operations at sea, naval intelligence gathering, high-precision sea floor mapping, or to transport minerals from the seabed to the surface.
Professor Liu Kaizhou (left) with colleagues Ye Cong and Yang Bo, was instrumental in the success of China’s Jiaolong manned submersible. Photo: Xinhua
Professor Du Tezhuan, a researcher in fluid dynamics at the Institute of Mechanics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said the design was a bold one but it posed the research team many hard questions.
The density of water was much higher than that of air, he said, which meant the vessel would encounter more drag and would need a strong power source.
“Without sufficient speed, the lift will be weak, and to reach high speeds, lots of energy will be needed. Flying in water is not as easy as flying in the air,” said Du, who was not involved in the project.
Why Beijing is speeding up underwater drone tests in the South China Sea
“But in theory it should work. It is worth a try.”
Liu – who led the design of the autopilot system that can take the Jiaolong to depths of more than 7,000 metres (23,000 ft) – said that after tests on the prototype were complete, other innovations were possible. These included covering the vessel with air bubbles to reduce friction.
“This technology is brand new,” he said. “We are in uncharted water and we are excited by the challenges.”
BEIJING, May 12 (Xinhua) — Facing U.S. tariff hike threats, China has adhered to its bottom line, defended national dignity and people’s interests, experts with domestic think tanks said Sunday at a symposium on China-U.S. trade relations.
Imposing new tariffs goes against the will of the people and the trend of the times. China has the resolution, courage and confidence to rise to all sorts of challenges, they said.
The United States on Friday increased additional tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent.
At the 11th round of economic and trade consultations that ended in Washington the same day, the Chinese delegation made clear its consistent and resolute stance: problems can not be solved by increasing tariffs and cooperation is the only right choice for the two sides, but it has to be based on principles. China will never make concessions on major issues of principle.
RAISING TARIFFS MORE DETRIMENTAL TO U.S. ECONOMY
“Increasing tariffs will impact enterprises of both countries, but harm American businesses more,” said Gao Lingyun, a researcher with the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
The additional tariffs can not change U.S. demand for Chinese goods and will be eventually passed on to American consumers and retailers by U.S. importers, Gao said.
“If the United States insists on going its way to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports, its domestic prices would be dramatically pushed up, resulting in inflation,” Gao said.
A wide range of U.S. industry associations have expressed strong opposition to imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Raising tariffs to 25 percent could cost nearly one million American jobs and increase volatility of financial market, said the Tariffs Hurt the Heartland campaign.
Of the Chinese goods already under higher tariffs, more than 70 percent are intermediates and investment goods. Such a higher proportion means that the tariffs will be eventually be passed on to American businesses, consumers and farmers, said Chen Wenling, chief economist with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
Chen said the trade war provoked by the United States is ineffective. The United States wanted to fix the problem of trade deficit but its trade deficits to China, European Union and other economies rose rather than fell. In addition, the corresponding industry chain restructuring did not benefit the U.S. either. Auto makers Tesla and Ford are moving to the Chinese market instead.
“Some U.S. enterprises may find it difficult to survive if quitting the Chinese market as a very large share of their profits come from China,” said Liang Ming, a researcher with a research institute of the Ministry of Commerce.
Based on an estimate of the effect of having additional tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods, Liang said the United States still needs to import a majority of the goods from China. But most of the Chinese products involved are less dependent on the U.S. market, and can be exported to other markets, Liang noted.
Experts said that the spill-over effect of trade wars can reach the whole world, posing severe challenges to the global order, rules, trade systems, supply chains and even bringing negative impact on the peaceful development of the world.
“What China emphasizes, such as avoiding raising tariffs and a balance in the appeals of both sides, is not only the requests of China but also the rational choice for any country when facing unreasonable trade demand,” said Dong Yan, a researcher with the CASS’s Institute of World Economics and Politics.
Analysts agreed at Sunday’s symposium that cooperation benefits China and the Unites States, while conflicts hurt both; cooperation is always the right path to resolve the China-U.S. trade dispute.
NO YIELDING ON PRINCIPLES, FIGHT AND TALK ALTERNATELY
Experts said that the U.S. accusation of China’s “backtracking” for the unsuccessful talks is untenable and irresponsible as the two are still in the process of negotiation. As a matter of fact, the U.S. side is to blame for the negotiating setback as it has been exerting pressure on China and upping the ante.
“The U.S. requests involve China’s core interests and major concerns. They touch the bottom line and China will not compromise,” said Wei Jianguo, executive deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
He noted that a successful agreement must ensure both sides are satisfied for the most part and have both sides to make compromises.
If an agreement satisfies only one side with the concerns of the other side not respected or not taken care of, it can hardly sustain during the implementation and may even be revoked, he said.
After more than a year, both sides have conducted 11 rounds of economic and trade consultations, which experts said fully displays that the consultation is a continuing battle. Taking it easy is necessary while preparations must be fully made psychologically and at working level.
“It’s normal for major countries to have frictions. China must adapt to it,” said Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.
Chen Wenling said Chinese negotiators have stuck to their principles and stance during the consultation. “It will be normal for both sides to fight and talk alternately. China must not be vague in resolutely safeguarding its core national interests and major concerns and upholding national dignity,” Chen said.
Experts noted that China’s position on upholding the overall interests of the China-U.S. relations and consolidating bilateral economic and trade cooperation remains unchanged. The two countries should meet each other halfway in line with the principles of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit and resolve their core differences through dialog rather than confrontation.
Dong Yan said that the Sino-U.S. economic and trade friction is a long-term problem, complicated and arduous. Before everything, China and the United States should continue to build mutual trust, step up coordination in bilateral and multilateral areas, and expand common interests.
“We believe that in the face of huge cooperative interests, the U.S. side is also very clear that a trade war will not solve the economic and trade differences between the two countries,” said Liang Ming.
Although the tariff escalation is regrettable, Liang said he believed both sides had hope for the future of their economic and trade relations. A win-win cooperation between China and the United States is in line with the aspirations of the two peoples and the world at large, Liang said.
FACING CHALLENGE WITH CONFIDENCE
“Above 8,000 meters, it is the stratosphere, where the air gets thin. For mountain climbers, this requires extra efforts to overcome, which is similar to the phase that China’s economy has to overcome in order to achieve high-quality development.”
Wang Wen, citing mountain climbing as a metaphor, said the current stage requires China to stay patient and make hard work persistently according to a set route.
With both solid strength and huge potential as well as a strong capability to cope with risks and strikes, China has the confidence, resolution and ability to face all kinds of risks and challenges, said Zheng Shuiquan, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Renmin University of China.
“No matter how the situation goes in the future, we need to manage our own affairs well,” said Zhang Yansheng, chief research fellow with the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.
Since last year, a series of measures have been taken by the central government to consolidate the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. Wang Jinbin, deputy dean of School of Economics, Renmin University of China, said that stabilizing expectation and confidence is very essential.
Starting this year, transition towards new growth engines from the traditional ones has accelerated, with new industries and businesses constantly emerging, said Yan Jinming, executive director of the National Academy of Development and Strategy of the Renmin University of China.
He said that the Chinese economy has strong resilience and flexibility, a huge market and promising prospect.
“The key is to manage our own affairs now, so as to constantly increase the potential for economic development,” said Yan.
“A win-win cooperation is an unstoppable trend of development. Trade development needs to be aligned with major national strategies. By deepening Belt and Road economic cooperation, China will see its high-quality development path getting broader and broader,” said Chen.
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CHINDIA ALERT: You'll be living in their world, very soon 