Chindia Alert: You’ll be Living in their World Very Soon
aims to alert you to the threats and opportunities that China and India present. China and India require serious attention; case of ‘hidden dragon and crouching tiger’.
Without this attention, governments, businesses and, indeed, individuals may find themselves at a great disadvantage sooner rather than later.
The POSTs (front webpages) are mainly 'cuttings' from reliable sources, updated continuously.
The PAGEs (see Tabs, above) attempt to make the information more meaningful by putting some structure to the information we have researched and assembled since 2006.
American destroyer’s mission comes a week before Taiwanese president officially starts second term in office
Increased military activity in the region could have unintended consequences but unlikely to lead to direct conflict, observer says
The guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell made a transit through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday. Photo: US Navy
The United States sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday as the Chinese military embarked on more than two months of live-fire naval drills off the mainland’s northern coast.
According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer transited the narrow body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China from north to south “in a routine mission”.
“It is continuing its southward voyage and the military is monitoring its movement through the intelligence it has gathered,” the ministry said.
In a statement on its Facebook page, the US Pacific Fleet said the McCampbell transited the Taiwan Strait as part of ongoing operations in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysts said the passage was a response to the People’s Liberation Army’s increasing military activity near Taiwan and in the wider region.
“This will become a new routine as a kind of US security commitment to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Soong Hseik-wen, professor of strategic studies and international relations at National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan.
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The PLA has staged a series of war games, including fly-bys and warship transits through the strait, in recent months in response to what Beijing sees as growing pro-independence moves by the Tsai government and her party. China has also warned the US against supplying weapons to the island, which Beijing considers to be a wayward province that must return to the mainland fold, by force if necessary.
Mainland China has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai was first elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China policy, which Beijing says must be the foundation for any talks.
The PLA has embarked on 11 weeks of naval exercises off the coast of Tangshan in northern China, barring all other vessels from a 25km (15 mile) radius of the drill area, according to the China Maritime Safety Administration.
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Both Beijing and Washington have ramped up military activities near Taiwan in recent months during the coronavirus pandemic, moves that some observers say run the risk of miscommunication.
Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, professor of strategic studies and international relations at Tamkang University in Taipei, said no one could exclude the possibility of unintended incidents when both the US and the mainland were stepping up their presence in the region.
“Rational analysts would however argue that the two nuclear powers are not likely to engage in or escalate to direct military conflict,” he said.
Huang said he believed cross-strait relations would worsen during Tsai’s second term in office, which begins on May 20.
“The already damaged relationship between Taiwan and mainland China has worsened since the pandemic mainly due to travel bans and Taiwan’s increased international visibility,” he said.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Kyodo News reported that the PLA was planning a large-scale beach landing exercise near Hainan province in August, simulating a takeover of the Pratas Islands, which are controlled by Taiwan and also known as the Dongsha Islands.
In Taipei, Major General Lin Wen-huang said Taiwan was monitoring the PLA movements and “has contingency plans in place for the South China Sea to strengthen combat readiness and defence preparedness on both the Spratly and Pratas islands”.
Taiwan’s coastguard also announced on Wednesday that its Pratas Islands Garrison was scheduled to conduct an annual live-fire exercise in June to ensure the “effectiveness of various mortar and machine-gun positions”.
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Shanghai-based military commentator Ni Lexiong said that both the US Navy and PLA were increasing activities during the pandemic because neither side could afford to show weaknesses that the other might take advantage of.
The destroyer’s passage and the PLA’s drills were all part of such efforts, Li said.
But he agreed that both countries were unwilling, unable, and unlikely to have a real conflict.
“They are both bluffing. It’s a fake crisis,” he said. “A pandemic always ends or prevents a war if you look at history.
“I also don’t believe the PLA would want to take over the Dongsha or Taiping islands [in the South China Sea], because these islets alone are not worth a military campaign and all the consequences of that. The only target valuable enough for the PLA is Taiwan.”
People’s Liberation Army has officially recorded no infections but disease fears have delayed recruitment, training and operations
Analysts say Sars experience guided military’s prompt response, but combat effectiveness has been affected
Chinese military medical personnel arriving in Wuhan in February to assist with the coronavirus outbreak response to the February. Photo: Reuters
China’s military may have been spared any coronavirus infections, but the global health crisis has slowed the progress of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a modern fighting force capable of long-range power-projecting operations, experts say.
According to China’s defence ministry, the world’s largest armed force – with about 2.3 million personnel – has had zero confirmed cases of Covid-19. In contrast, the US and Russian militaries, ranked second- and third-largest in the world, have reported more than 4,000 and 1,000 respectively.
But the PLA has been affected in other ways by the disease, which was first reported in Wuhan in December before going on to infect 3.9 million people around the world to date.
Safety concerns delayed its annual spring recruitment programme – it has been rescheduled for August – while the PLA Navy was forced to change its training arrangements, switching to classroom study of military theory and tactics, according to Xinhua.
“The PLA is still a conscription army and, given its large turnover of soldiers every year and the late recruitment and training plan this year, the coronavirus pandemic has already affected combat effectiveness,” said Adam Ni, director of the China Policy Centre, an independent, non-profit research organisation based in Canberra, Australia.
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The navy’s operations, in particular, would have been affected, according to Charlie Lyons Jones, a researcher from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s defence and strategy programme.
“The Chinese navy, short of highly effective disease control measures, is unlikely to avoid similar outbreaks of the novel coronavirus on board its warships,” he said.
“Therefore, even if the PLA Navy currently has zero personnel infected by the novel coronavirus, its position as a navy that can operate effectively in a period of higher-than-normal tension remains precarious at best,” Jones said. He also questioned Beijing’s claims that the military was virus-free.
“The PLA played an important role in China’s response to the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan … The idea that none of these personnel working on the front lines in Wuhan became infected by the novel coronavirus would be inconsistent with the experiences of countries from around the world,” he said.
More than 4,000 military medical workers were sent to Wuhan as part of China’s effort to contain the outbreak at ground zero – which included the rapid-built emergency field facility, the Huoshenshan hospital – and their efforts were highlighted in a documentary screened recently by state broadcaster CCTV.
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At the time, rumours were rampant that the Chinese military had been affected by the coronavirus, fuelled by a report on February 17 by the official PLA Daily that some soldiers had been placed in quarantine and Yu Qiusong, captain of the Changzhou type 054A frigate, was isolating in a guest house. The news report did not mention why the personnel were in quarantine.
But analysts said that whether the official numbers were accurate, the PLA’s closed management, fast response and past experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) gave China’s military an advantage in keeping the coronavirus at bay.
Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military observer, said a key reason for the less serious hit to the PLA compared to other forces was its speed in recognising the severity of the situation.
“What’s more, the PLA has its own logistic support system that can help minimise its contact with the outside world, thus reducing the possibility of contracting the virus,” he said.
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According to Xinhua, the PLA’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention drew up an emergency response plan and mobilisation arrangements on January 20, the same day Xi issued an instruction to the public that the virus must be “resolutely contained”.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence research analyst with the Rand Corporation, a US think tank, said China’s military had benefited from its less international role, compared to US forces.
“The US is a globally distributed force while the Chinese military largely operates on the mainland. The US thus faces challenges in containing the disease that the Chinese military does not have to face … and the US military has a large range of missions and tasks it carries out to counter threats to its allies and partners, as well as to US security. This complicates efforts by the US military to carry out disease control measures,” he said.
People’s Liberation Army resumes drills, including flotilla exercise in Miyako Strait
Military observers say China is demonstrating its ability while virus hampers US aircraft carriers
The Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group has resumed activities after being interrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Photo: Handout
The People’s Liberation Army has resumed regular military drills at home and overseas, moves that military experts say are a show of strength and control over
The ground forces, navy and air force of the PLA’s five theatre commands started military drills this month, with some exercises involving joint operations, according to several reports published by the PLA Daily in recent days.
As the epidemic surged in China, the PLA was forced to suspend all large-scale joint drills because of disruptions to transport and allocations of military resources around the country.
China’s People Liberation Army conducts drills. Photo: Handout
On Saturday, one of the large-scale drills resumed. A six-ship flotilla, led by the
, sailed through the Miyako Strait – just 330km (205 miles) due east of the northernmost tip of Taiwan – on its way to the western Pacific.
“In the future, the Chinese navy will continue to organise similar training schedules to accelerate and improve the combat capability of its aircraft carrier strike groups,” navy spokesman Gao Xiucheng was quoted as saying in PLA Daily.
It is the first time the Liaoning has reappeared in waters near Taiwan since sailors on four United States aircraft carriers sent to the Indo-Pacific region were infected by the coronavirus, making the Chinese carrier the only vessel of its kind active in the western Pacific.
The reappearance of the Liaoning strike group prompted Taiwan to send warships, while the US sent a P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft to follow the Chinese flotilla. Taiwanese media reported that the aircraft was the seventh American warplane sent to the region in a week.
Hong Kong-based military analyst Song Zhongping said the Liaoning’s appearance near Taiwan was not only a demonstration of military deterrence to the independence-leaning ruling party in Taiwan, but also a gesture to show off the PLA’s greater ability to contain the coronavirus pandemic than its American counterpart.
“Compared with the PLA, the United States military is weaker and lacks experience in dealing with non-traditional military operations such as battles against epidemics, because those aspects are mostly carried by the US National Guard in various states,” Song said.
“Since the threat of Covid-19 is decreasing, the PLA needs to return to their regular training to prepare for a war to reunify Taiwan by force when necessary. The possible war is very complicated as it [would] involve dealing with foreign militaries, such as US and Japanese navies.”
Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said that the PLA so far had been able to control the infection sources and channels among soldiers and officers, but that the threat of Covid-19 remained.
In pictures published by the PLA Daily, PLA officers do not wear masks while conducting drills.
Both Zhou and Song said that the Covid-19 pandemic had hit the US Navy and left a power vacuum in the region but that the PLA would not use the chance to attack Taiwan.
“Using force to take Taiwan back is still the last step, not the first priority,” Zhou said. “How to manage and maintain Taiwan’s prosperity is the most important issue of the cross-strait relationship.”
Song said the PLA still believed the US Navy had maintained a degree of combat capability even though hundreds of US sailors were infected by the novel coronavirus.
Taiwan sends fighters to intercept mainland military aircraft after they cross dividing line in Taiwan Strait
Incursion comes at end of visit to Washington by vice-president-elect William Lai that angered Beijing
A Taiwanese fighter jet shadows a mainland Chinese bomber over the Taiwan Strait on Monday. Photo: Military News Agency, ROC
Taiwan sent warplanes to intercept a group of mainland Chinese jets that had briefly approached the island on Monday, the second such incident in two days.
The incident came as the island’s vice-president-designate William Lai Ching-te concluded an eight-day visit to the US that had angered Beijing.
The mainland warplanes, including H-6 bombers, briefly crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait on their way to the western Pacific through the Bashi Channel in the morning for long-haul training exercises, Taiwan’s defence ministry said in a statement on Monday.
“Our air force scrambled fighter jets to shadow, intercept and disperse the communist warplanes through radio broadcasting,” the ministry said, adding the mainland planes later left the area.
The mainland warplanes later returned to their home base after their morning drill, the military said.
It was the second day in a row that the mainland warplanes flew past Taiwan after a group of aircraft, including J-11 fighter jets, KJ-500 early warning aircraft and H-6 bombers, flew over the Bashi Channel on Sunday before returning to their bases via the Miyako Strait northeast of Taiwan, the ministry said.
“The military has full surveillance and control of the communist long-haul training activities and the public can rest assured of our capability to uphold security or our national territory,” it said.
Meanwhile, Lai completed his eight-day “private” visit to Washington, during which he met the National Security Council and other US officials and senators.
Lai, who left for the US last Sunday to attend the National Prayer Breakfast – an annual gathering of political and religious leaders in Washington – was considered the highest-level Taiwanese official to meet with National Security Council officials since the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taipei in 1979.
The visit was hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough for the island because until now Washington has been reluctant to allow such exchanges for fear of angering Beijing, which has repeatedly demanded that the US adhere to the “one-China” policy.
Taiwan scrambles jets as mainland Chinese air force flies around island
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Beijing views Taiwan as a wayward province that must be brought back to the mainland fold – by force if necessary.
It has suspended official exchanges with Taiwan since Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was first elected president in 2016 and refused to accept the one-China principle as the basis for cross-strait exchanges.
Since then, Beijing has staged war games close to the island and poached seven of Taiwan’s allies to heap pressure on the president, who was reelected last month.
A People’s Liberation Army spokesperson said on Sunday the flight was a “necessary action” under “current security situation across the Taiwan Strait”.
Vice-President-elect William Lai Ching-te met National Security Council officials on his visit to the White House. Photo: Facebook
Observers said Lai’s US visit was made possible due to a new US policy to allow high-level official and military exchanges with Taiwan, which has been included in the US security alliance to counter the mainland’s military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.
They said Lai is still technically a civilian until he takes office in May, and the US can always use this status to defend its move, although the visit has prompted strong protests from the Chinese foreign ministry.
Observers also said Taiwan’s efforts in seeking to join the World Health Organisation amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak have also riled Beijing, which has repeatedly said the island is a mainland province with no right to join international bodies which require statehood for membership.
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On Monday, Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, warned the Tsai government against “playing with fire” by “trying to use its strengthening ties with the US to plot independence”.
“This is a sheer provocation,” Ma said, adding what the People’s Liberation Army did was to protect the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the mainland and to maintain cross-strait peace.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator for Hong Kong Phoenix Television, said the patrol was aimed at the separatist movement on the island.
“Such a patrol is for war-preparedness … and has become a routine practice and a resolution to effectively attack the pro-independence force,” said Song, a former instructor for the PLA’s Second Artillery, the predecessor of the Rocket Force.
A Beijing-based military source close to the PLA, who requested anonymity, said the warplanes were equipped with missiles, which has become a standard procedure for PLA’s air drills.
Soldiers from 140 countries are expected to take part in 10-day sporting event in Wuhan, Hubei province
It coincides with the Xiangshan Forum, where Beijing may seek to reinforce its position on issues like the South China Sea and US arms sales to Taiwan
More than 100 horses have arrived in Wuhan for the equestrian and modern pentathlon events of the Military World Games, which begin on Friday. Photo: Handout
President Xi Jinping is expected to open the Military World Games in central China on Friday, setting the stage for a People’s Liberation Army charm offensive as it seeks to strengthen ties with foreign forces and exert its influence.
China is hosting the 10-day sporting event in Wuhan, Hubei province, and soldiers from 140 countries are expected to take part. It will coincide with the three-day Xiangshan Forum – China’s equivalent of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore – to be held on the outskirts of Beijing from Sunday.
It comes after China staged a lavish military parade in Beijing to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic on October 1, showcasing some of the PLA’s most advanced weapon systems and strategic weaponry.
A Chinese military insider on Tuesday said Xi was expected to kick off the games in Wuhan – a symbolic move by the president as he seeks to boost the PLA’s international profile.
China has built a new athletes’ village in Wuhan that can accommodate 10,000 people. Photo: Handout
“[China sees] the Military World Games as a platform to promote international military diplomacy and an opportunity for the PLA to build its international image through sporting events,” the insider said.
It will be the first time China hosts the Military World Games, which is the second-biggest multi-sport event after the Olympics and is also held every four years.
To host the mega event, China has built a new athletes’ village in Wuhan that can accommodate the 10,000 military athletes who will compete. This year’s games will have the largest number of events ever, with badminton, table tennis, tennis and men’s gymnastics included for the first time.
The US Armed Forces will send about 300 athletes to Wuhan, according to state-run Xinhua. One of them is Mark Juliano, an archer and taekwondo player, who told the news agency: “You developed world-class venues and I can’t wait to experience the games.”
The Chinese president has high hopes for the PLA athletes at this year’s Military World Games, according to an insider. Photo: Handout
The military insider said Xi had high hopes that the PLA would win gold in some of the events.
“The Russians are known to be very good at some sports but the PLA has yet to earn a reputation in any particular sport,” the insider said. “Xi hopes that the home ground advantage will give the PLA the edge this time.”
Another Beijing-based military source said the top brass had put great emphasis on the success of three events this year – the National Day parade, Military World Games and the Xiangshan Dialogue.
The source said it would be the biggest Xiangshan Forum since China began holding the event more than a decade ago, and dozens of senior foreign defence officials and military leaders invited to the games in Wuhan would also take part in the forum.
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Set up in 2006, China uses the forum to play host to foreign military experts and leaders and discuss security and defence issues in the Asia-Pacific region. It is widely seen as an effort by Beijing to compete with the Asia Security Forum in Singapore, also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue after the hotel where it is staged.
The theme of this year’s Xiangshan Forum is “Maintaining international order and promoting peace in the Asia-Pacific”. Military observers said Beijing was likely to use it as an opportunity to reinforce its position on issues like the South China Sea and US arms sales to Taiwan.
Defence Minister Wei Fenghe criticised the US for damaging ties with China at last year’s Xiangshan Forum. Photo: Xinhua
Yao Yunzhu, a retired PLA major general and a delegate at the forum, said this year’s event would give the PLA an opportunity to explain its strategy to foreign militaries, including the US.
“The relationship between the PLA and its American counterpart has been stable over the past year despite tensions between Beijing and Washington over issues such as trade,” Yao said.
“But that military relationship has been stable thanks to the efforts of the two militaries to keep their communication open, as well as improving their crisis management mechanism,” she added.
Another forum delegate, Zhu Feng, dean of the international relations school at Nanjing University, said smaller countries in the region would use the forum to raise their concerns over the impact of tensions between China and the US on the region’s long-term stability.
October 1 event is intended to be a showcase for military’s progress under Xi Jinping, with J-20 stealth fighters set to take pride of place
Domestically developed weapons are main focus of event despite long-standing problems in building aircraft engines
Chinese J-10 jets perform at the Dubai air show in 2017. Photo: AFP
China has stepped up intensive rehearsals for the upcoming National Day parade, which military insiders say is designed to showcase the achievements of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s modernisation drive.
The parade on October 1 will mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic and will focus on weapons developed since Xi came to power in late 2012, despite long-standing problems in aircraft engine development.
Video clips circulating on mainland social media in recent days have shown at least seven types of aircraft – including the KJ-2000 airborne early warning and control aircraft and J-10 and J-11B fighter jets – taking part in rehearsals over the countryside around Beijing.
A military insider said the country’s first stealth fighter jet, the J-20, had been rehearsing over the western suburbs of the capital since April.
“There will be up to seven J-20 displayed in the military parade, which is the largest formation since its formal deployment to the Chinese air force in 2017,” the military insider said.
“The J-20 has entered mass production. So far at least 70 J-20s have been made, even though all of them are still equipped with Russian AL-31 engines.”
Earlier this month, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force released a video of a flight of seven J-20s, the largest formation seen so far, suggesting that the fifth-generation warplane has gone into mass production as an arms race with the United States mounts in the region.
The second-largest J-20 formation was shown in an air force video for PLA Day on August 1, when five of the jets were shown.
China has been forced to deploy the J-20 ahead of its schedule since the US has increased the deployment of its fifth-generation stealth fighter jets like the F-22 and F-35s in the Asia-Pacific region.
The US and its allies, including Japan and South Korea, will have more than 200 F-35s by 2025, which means China also needs a similar number of stealth fighters.
To meet demand, China has been working on the development of a purpose-built thrust engine for its stealth fighter since the early 2000s, but has yet to achieve international quality control standards due to problems that include single-crystal turbine blade technology.
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Hong Kong-based military commentator Song Zhongping said aircraft engine development had been a long-standing shortcoming but it would not affect the practical fighting capacity of the J-20, which currently uses Russian engines.
“The J-20 hasn’t used the domestic engines so far because it wants a better one, and it still has time,” Song said.
“Other [Chinese-developed] warplanes like the J-10, J-11 and multipurpose attack helicopters are all modified and advanced types, indicating comprehensive achievements amid China’s military modernisation over the past years.”
A Chinese J-20 stealth fighter has entered mass production. Photo: EPA-EFE
Besides the domestically developed aircraft, Beijing is going to display its strategic nuclear missiles, such as the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, as centrepieces of its National Day military parade, according to a Beijing-based military source.
Xi, who also chairs the powerful Central Military Commission, inspected the country’s biggest military parade at the Zhurihe Combined Tactics Training Base in Inner Mongolia in 2017 to celebrate the 90th anniversary of the PLA, but the source said the weapons displayed in Zhurihe had been developed under the leadership of Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao.
“Xi needs to highlight his personal achievements in his era, that’s why this year’s parade has political aims more than military significance,” the source said.
The source also highlighted the significance of the People’s Republic marking its 70th anniversary because the Soviet Union did not survive for that length of time.
“Xi is attempting to tell the outside world that Chinese communist regime has been consolidated under his leadership.”
Fears are growing in the city that the military could be called in to quell unrest
But the costs and complexities of doing so mean Beijing is highly unlikely to give the orders, observers say
PLA soldiers show their skills during a naval base open day in Hong Kong. The PLA has had a presence in Hong Kong since the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty. Photo: K.Y. Cheng
It is a prospect dreaded by many in Hong Kong, but debate is growing in mainland China about whether the central government should end weeks of upheaval in the city by sending in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The PLA has had a presence in Hong Kong since the city’s return to Chinese sovereignty but – unlike in mainland China – memories of the military’s bloody suppression of pro-democracy students and activists in Beijing in 1989 are still strong in the city three decades on.
Still, images of protesters vandalising Beijing’s liaison office in downtown Hong Kong on Sunday have fanned nationalist anger across the mainland, prompting calls for PLA intervention.
Concerns only deepened on Wednesday when defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian commented on the recent clashes and protests in Hong Kong. Without suggesting any action or plans by the PLA, Wu made clear that the Garrison Law, which governs the operations of PLA troops in Hong Kong, already stipulates that the PLA is legally allowed to help the city maintain law and order at the request of Hong Kong’s government.
“We are closely following the developments in Hong Kong, especially the violent attack against the central government’s liaison office by radicals on July 21,” Wu said.
“Some behaviour of the radical protesters is challenging the authority of the central government and the bottom line of ‘one country, two systems’,” he warned, referring to the formula that grants Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy for 50 years. “This is intolerable.”
Both Article 14 and Article 18 of the Basic Law – the city’s mini-constitution – spell out how and under what circumstances the PLA troops in Hong Kong can be used.
While the legality is clear, analysts still believe that given the exorbitant political cost and complexities involved, using the military would remain an unlikely last resort.
Even Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, has spoken out against the idea, citing its “huge political cost” and the “severe uncertainty” it might bring to the situation.
Crowds hold candles at a vigil in Victoria Park in Hong Kong in June to mark the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Photo: James Wendlinger
“Once the PLA has taken charge of the situation in Hong Kong and quelled the riots, what’s next?” Hu said in a social media post on Monday.
Hu said there were no governance procedures in place that would allow the PLA to operate in Hong Kong and return things to normal. He also warned that any such action would be followed by international condemnation and a severe backlash among the Hong Kong public.
“The [PLA’s] Hong Kong garrison is the symbol of national sovereignty. It is not a fire brigade for law and order in Hong Kong,” he said.
Any move to use the Chinese troops will create a furore in the US Congress … They will re-examine the Hong Kong Policy Act very carefully Larry Wortzel, senior fellow at American Foreign Policy Council
The South China Morning Post reported last week that military force was not an option for mainland leaders working on a strategy to resolve the city’s biggest political crisis in decades.
And in June Major General Chen Daoxiang, commander of the Hong Kong garrison, assured David Helvey, US principal deputy assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs, that Chinese troops would not interfere in the city’s affairs, according to Reuters.
The comments support analysts’ assessments that deploying the PLA is not a viable solution to Hong Kong’s crisis.
“Will the mobilisation of PLA troops further inflame the situation? There might be people who will resist or even revolt against the PLA, and that may lead to bloodshed,” said Lau Siu-kai, vice-chairman of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, a semi-official think tank.
The last time Beijing sent in troops to quell pro-democracy protests was during the Tiananmen Square crackdown on June 4, 1989 – bloodshed that has stained the PLA and the Communist Party to this day, despite decades of efforts to wipe it from public memory.
The last time Beijing sent in troops to quell pro-democracy protests was during the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. Photo: Reuters
“Although they don’t like to admit it, they know they made a mistake in the way they used the PLA [in 1989],” said Larry Wortzel, a long-time PLA watcher, who witnessed the crackdown as an assistant military attache at the US embassy in Beijing 30 years ago.
“In subsequent years, when there were major demonstrations, they managed to handle them with either the People’s Armed Police [PAP] or the Public Security Bureau [PSB], or in some cases a combination of both,” said Wortzel, now a senior fellow in Asian security at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington.
If the military was deployed [in Hong Kong], it would mean China was ready to shut its doors completely Chen Daoyin, a Shanghai-based political analyst
The PAP is a 1.5 million-strong paramilitary police force tasked with maintaining domestic security and order, while the PSB is the country’s police force.
The June 4 crackdown is still widely remembered in Hong Kong, where tens of thousands gather every year on its anniversary for a candlelight vigil in the heart of the city.
“The activities in Hong Kong and the Chinese Communist Party’s conduct there have really had a profound impact on thinking in Taiwan. It has killed any chance with any political party of [supporting] the one country, two systems,” Wortzel said.
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“The last thing President Xi Jinping and the Politburo Standing Committee would want to do, if they can avoid it, is to use the PLA [in Hong Kong].”
The situation in Hong Kong is also being closely watched in the West, with many international firms basing regional headquarters in the Asian financial hub, thanks to its capitalist system and rule of law.
Deploying the PLA to Hong Kong would certainly spark an international outcry and draw huge pressure from Western countries, said Liang Yunxiang, an international affairs expert at Peking University.
“Britain, of course, would have the harshest criticism since it governed Hong Kong for a long time and signed treaties with China to ensure Beijing would keep its commitment to one country, two systems,” Liang said.
In the United States, the repercussions could go beyond verbal condemnation to a shift in policy that might fundamentally change Hong Kong’s status as an international financial centre and prompt an exodus of businesses, according to Wortzel.
“Any move to use the Chinese troops will create a furore in the US Congress … They will re-examine the Hong Kong Policy Act very carefully,” he said, referring to the bill passed in 1992 that allows Hong Kong to be treated as a non-sovereign entity distinct from mainland China on trade and economic matters.
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“They will simply treat Hong Kong like another Chinese city, which affects export controls and how the financial industry operates.”
Just last month, members of Congress reintroduced the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. If the legislation is passed, the US could revoke Hong Kong’s special status under American law if Beijing fails to ensure the city has “sufficient autonomy”.
The crisis comes as Beijing’s ties with Washington are already strained by a year-long trade war that has spilled into other areas of bilateral relations.
PLA troops go through their paces for the public at their Hong Kong barracks during an open day. Photo: Edward Wong
There is also mounting international pressure on China over issues such as its mass internment and political indoctrination of an estimated million or more members of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, despite the Chinese government’s repeated denials of ill-treatment of the inmates and attempts to defend its policies.
Chen Daoyin, a Shanghai-based political analyst, said the increasing scrutiny China faced from Western countries – whether in the form of punitive tariffs or restrictions on technology – made it all the more important for China to keep Hong Kong as an open channel to connect with the world.
“If the military was deployed [in Hong Kong], it would mean China was ready to shut its doors completely,” Chen said.
Lau, from the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said the PLA should only be deployed as a last resort.
Two calls per second ‘jammed emergency lines’ during Hong Kong violence
“It would be a huge blow to the principle of ‘letting Hong Kong people govern Hong Kong with a high degree of autonomy’, since it will prove that Hong Kong people are not up to the task of governing themselves,” he said.
Hu, from Global Times, said the PLA troops could be used only if the authorities lost control of the city or an armed rebellion broke out.
Short of that, he said, the central government should let the chaos in Hong Kong run its course and wait for the public mood to flip.
This strategy of sitting it out hinges on the city’s police force holding the line and stopping Hong Kong’s slide into total anarchy.
Wortzel also warned that there were lines protesters should not cross – or risk provoking the use of military force.
“For instance, to this point, demonstrators have not gone up against the PLA garrison or any of its outposts. If they did that, I think it’s possible – actually it is very likely – that there will be a limited mobilised response [to defend the facilities],” he said.
While most analysts said the chance of Beijing resorting to military force was slim, the very idea – ludicrous to even discuss three months ago – has become a popular topic on social media on the mainland, where the discussion is not censored and many commenters support it.
The official media have been careful not to touch the subject but they too have stepped up rhetoric against the protests in Hong Kong.
In a rare move, state-run China Central Television has run commentaries and reports about protests in Hong Kong during its main evening news for five days in a row.
Only the most politically important issues receive such unusual treatment.
Armed F-16 fighter jets simulate attack followed by medium and long-range missile launches into eastern waters
People’s Liberation Army launched two large-scale drills close to Taiwan Strait on Sunday
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Taiwan has launched a military exercise including F-16 fighter jets in response to Beijing’s war games, which began on Sunday. Photo: AFP
Taiwan responded to Beijing’s military drill targeting the self-ruled island by deploying its most advanced fighter jets and firing 117 medium and long-range missiles on Monday and Tuesday.
Defence ministry spokesman Lee Chao-ming said the missiles were fired from the Jiupeng military base to waters off eastern Taiwan, with a range of 250km (155 miles), in an exercise covering five types of training for the island’s forces.
On Monday, Taiwan’s air force also dispatched two F-16 fighter jets armed with AGM-84 Harpoon missiles in a simulation of an attack off the island’s southeast coast.
Song Zhongping, a military commentator based in Hong Kong, said the Taiwan drill was aimed at the mainland Chinese exercise which began on Sunday. The location of the Taiwan drill meant its missiles’ electronic data could avoid detection by the People’s Liberation Army’s radar, he said.
Chinese military starts Taiwan Strait drills amid rising tension
“Taiwan is focusing on boosting self-defence, and building up a comprehensive air and sea defence network to counter military threats from the mainland,” Song said.
“The test firing of missiles is to boost the island’s self-defence capability. The military drill of the PLA has triggered a lot of concerns in Taiwan, and Taiwan is responding to it also through a strong military means.”
The PLA launched two large-scale military drills close to the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, after a notice issued by the Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration prohibited ships from entering the waters off the coast of the eastern province between 6pm on Saturday and 6pm on Thursday.
The Guangdong Maritime Safety Administration said another set of military exercises would be held in the waters off Fujian province between Monday morning and Friday evening.
Observers said they expected PLA forces from the Southern and Eastern commands – whose area of responsibility includes Zhejiang and Fujian, which lie across the strait from Taiwan – to take part in the exercises.
Japan’s Ministry of Defence said on Monday that six Chinese warships had passed through the Miyako Strait – a waterway lying between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island – presumably in preparation for the drills.
Japanese military vessels said a Chinese class-three missile destroyer – a type 054A missile frigate – was sailing 240km north of Miyako Island on Saturday.
On Thursday, Japanese ships reported China’s type 052D destroyer Xining, type 054A missile frigate Daging, the guided missile frigate Rizhao, and the ocean comprehensive supply ship Hulun Lake, all entered the Pacific Ocean through the Miyako Strait.
This is China’s first war game to involve simultaneous exercises at two locations in waters near Taiwan since the 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, during which the PLA conducted a series of large-scale live-fire exercises in response to then-Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States, and ahead of the Taiwanese presidential election.
Military exercises this week meant to foster image that Beijing can win a war over the island, analyst says
The PLA is staging live-fire drills at the northern end of the Taiwan Strait this week. Photo: AP
Beijing is conducting live-fire military drills at the northern end of the Taiwan Strait as it signals its resolve to thwart “pro-independence forces” in Taiwan.
Authorities in the small city of Yuhuan, Zhejiang province, notified the public on Sunday that a “no-sail zone” and “no-fishing zone” would be in effect in the area until Friday night.
It said the drills were part of the People’s Liberation Army’s “annual regular exercise plans” and would involve “actual use of weapons”.
“According to the annual [PLA’s] regular training plan … live-fire exercises involving the use of real weapons will be organised … in the designated areas from 6am on May 5 to 6pm on May 10,” the authorities said.
Collin Koh, a military analyst from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said the stress on the live-fire manoeuvres suggested the six-day exercise would simulate real combat conditions.
The drills come hard on the heels of an annual report by the Pentagon warning that China was preparing options to unify Taiwan by force, and there was a need to deter, delay or deny any third-party intervention on Taiwan’s behalf.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is bound by law to help defend the self-ruled island. Washington is Taipei’s main source of arms, selling the island more than US$15 billion in weaponry since 2010, according to the Pentagon.
Beijing ‘loses all hope for Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen’ as she rallies Washington
Taiwan is one of a growing number of flashpoints in the China-US relationship – along with a trade war, Beijing’s growing influence in emerging economies, and its stronger military posture in the South China Sea. On Monday, two guided-missile destroyers, USS Preble and USS Chung-Hoon passed within 12 nautical miles of Gaven and Johnson reefs in the Spratly Islands, drawing immediate criticism from Beijing.
In addition, Taiwan will hold its annual Han Kuang live-fire drills from May 27 to 31 and held a computer-aided one just last month.
A Taiwan affairs analyst from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said the drills off Zhejiang were meant to show Beijing’s determination to defend its position on Taiwan.
“Beijing is trying to build up an image that China can win a war over Taiwan and Beijing’s key goal is to contain pro-independence forces, which are the biggest threat now to the peaceful unification process,” the analyst said.
Koh agreed, saying the drill sent a signal to external and domestic parties after the recent high-profile transits of US warships through the Taiwan Strait.
“The messaging to domestic audience is necessary because Beijing can’t be seen as weak following those reported transits by foreign warships – especially the Americans who are seen as supporting Taipei,” Koh said.
“And regarding external audience, the messaging is quite obviously to demonstrate that Beijing is ready to respond more resolutely to future such transits, following the tough verbal responses from Beijing, including its statement that it considers the strait under its jurisdiction and comprise its internal waters.”
Beijing ‘tones down’ response after US warships sail through Taiwan Strait
Relations between Beijing and Taipei have plunged since Tsai Ing-wen from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party won the presidential election in 2016 and repeatedly refused to accept the “1992 consensus”, which Beijing says is the foundation for cross-strait dialogue.
In response, Beijing ramped up pressure against the island, including conducting more military exercises and establishing diplomatic ties with Taipei’s allies.
BEIJING, March 15 (Xinhua) — The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and armed police force have been urged to study the spirit of the second session of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC) and the spirit of the remarks made by President Xi Jinping during the session.
This is an important political task for the whole military, said a circular released Friday by the General Office of the Central Military Commission.
Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, stressed fulfilling the set targets and tasks of national defense and military development as scheduled, in the remarks he made while attending a plenary meeting of the PLA and armed police force delegation.
The circular called on the PLA and armed police force to have a clear understanding of new circumstances, new tasks and new demands in strengthening national defense and the armed forces, and intensify the sense of mission to achieve new progress in making the military strong.
The circular stressed studying the spirit of Xi’s remarks, and urged the PLA and armed police force to clearly understand the importance and urgency of implementing the 13th Five-Year Plan for military development, and go all out to carry out the plan so as to ensure that the set targets and tasks are fulfilled as scheduled.
The PLA and armed police force should have a deep understanding of the severe situation facing China’s security and development, improve military preparedness, actively support local economic and social development as well as ecological conservation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests, the circular stressed.
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